NFL Week 13: Thursday Night Football

Even though Monday night was dissapointing, the Ravens being a point away from covering, going 12-4 is still pretty remarkable.  75% winners are pretty rare so if you used my week for betting, congrats and I’m glad you stopped by to check out the picks.  I’ll be working on a more indepth analysis of my picks so far this season as well as some logic as to why you should consider not only picking “locks” but putting smaller bets on every game each week if you can successfully stay above 55% winners.  On to tonights game:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, 8:25p (Cowboys -1.5, O/U:47)

The Cowboys seem to be lost in Dallas.  They lose Zeke and all of a sudden, they don’t know how to score, Dak looks average and their vets look old.  Dak has stayed consistent in the passing game as far as completing passes but that offense is limp, and haven’t scored more than 10 in the last 3 weeks, which have all been losses (0-3 ATS) with the last 2 coming at home.

The Redskins have looked really good lately (a bit sloppy last week against a bad Giants team).  Other than last week, they beat tthe Seahawks in Seattle followed by a close loss to the Vikings at home and followed that with an overtime loss to the Saints in New Orleans.  They have a committe in the backfield but Cousins is playing very well with virtually once good tight end and a decent young receiver behind a strong line.

Dallas’s defense is still without Sean Lee and that has been eveident, allowing 27, 37 and 28 points in the last 3 weeks.  Take the Redskins to go into Jerry’s world to cover and in the under, 31-13.

NFL Week 12: Monday Night Football; 80% Covers ATS from Sunday – Discussion

The giving of Thanksgiving continued yesterday in the blog winning every 1 pm game (quite the accomplishment for me) and then finished Sunday with a 9-3 record (12-3 coupled with my Thursday picks), for an 80% winners overall, so far.  This is not the first time the blog has picked 12 winners in a week, it was done a few years ago and is pretty rare.  Now don’t start calling me the next handicapping genius, there’s always luck (good & bad) involved with these picks, example being Carolina.  The absolutely crazy stat that sticks out to me was how I covered 6 of 7 lines of 7 or more points (with the self pat on the back being the Bills and the 3 of 4 covers of 10+ points).

The consistency is what I can pride myself on being not as much luck as with some weekly picks.  We’ve climbed to 56% overall winners.  I’ve been saying all year that 56% is doing acceptionally well as a professional sports bettor and that it was the mark I was striving for.  The consistency I mentioned was not only the season as a whole but in the last 5 weeks, being 41-24-3 (63%).  The way I see it, if there aren’t major changes at QB, these teams are who they appear to be, which makes my job a little easier. More analysis on my picks Thursday, here’s tonight’s game: 

Houston Texas at Baltimore Ravens, 8:30p (Ravens -7.5, O/U: 39.5)

Baltimore started the season shaky, hit or miss on which games that you could predict they’d win.  They’ve stayed still at a 5-5 record and are actually 5-4 ATS.  Momentum is in their favor after shutting out the Packers in Lambeau.  They have one of the worst offenses as in total yards but middle of the road rushing game.

The Texans are hard to read using their season numbers due to Watson being a huge part of them. They’re coming off of a win that snapped a 3 game slide (2 of those loses at the hands of Savage).  Savage looked much better in last week’s game and had help from the now injured, D’Onta Foreman (2 rushing TD’s).

The Ravens will make it tough on the Texans using their home field as an advantage with their top 10 defense.  Take the Ravens to cover in the under, 24-13.

 Week 12: Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Lock of the Week

Thanksgiving has come and gone.  It was filled with roasted Turkey, gravy boats, pumpkin pie and wins!  3 for 3 on Thanksgiving games, just for you to be precise.  It was a gutsy call to take 2 road favorites under 3 points but it paid off.  There are some really crazy lines for Sunday but rightfully so in most cases.  Disclaimer, it was a holiday weekend so my analysis will be short and sweet but will be solid picks none-the-less.

No Blazing 5 this week but Colin did tweet his favorite line of the week, Rams (-2).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -10, O/U: 47.5)
The Buccs are looking a bit revitalized with Fitzgerald at the helm but ultimately too late for it to mean anything. Take the Falcons to cover in the under, 31-16.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -7.5, O/U: 38)
The Browns held Jacksonville to just 19 in last weeks loss but still lost while the Bengals had a nice little win in Denver.  Take the Bengals to pull out the cover but barely and in the under, 24-16.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +3, O/U: 45.5)
The Colts have been playing defense like wet toilet paper.  Equally the offense has had a hard time scoring.  The Titans season still isn’t lost being 1 game back of the Jaguar.  Mariotta has a strong game.  Take the Titans in the over, 27-20.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 1p (Chiefs -9.5, O/U: 46.5)
The Chiefs have been slipping at the wrong time, losing 4 of their last 5 while scoring more than 20 in only one of those games.  The Bills also have slipped, losing their last 3.  They started their rookie backup in a panic and he rewarded his coach by throwing 5 picks.  Take the Bills to cover but the Chiefs to win in the over, 31-27.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -16.5, O/U: 48)
The Pats will not take mercy as they face a division foe. The Dolphins can’t buy a win or a cover here.  Take the Patriots to cover the massive line in the under, 31-13.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +5.5, O/U: 40)
Both teams have virtually the same record against the spread except the Panthers have been playing much better. With Olsen activated from IR, look for him to get back into the swing of things.  Take the Panthers to cover in the over, 24-17.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -14, O/U: 44)

The Bears have been rising a 3 game losing skid after a miraculous win against the Panthers in week 7 while allowing 20+ points in each loss. The Eagles are flying high on all prey each week, while averaging 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. Don’t expect this one to be close.  Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-13.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -2, O/U: 53)

A late season road test for the Saints will show us if their 8-2 record is as legit as their scoring (3rd best offense in the league, averaging 30+ each of the last 3 weeks which were wins).  Their defense needs to hills up the Rams a bit though as they have averaged 30+ on 3 of their last 4 (having the 2nd best offense in the league).  Rams are without Robert Woods and will need Austin, Kupp and Watkins to step up. Look for the upset here as the Saints figured out how to win on the road and on grass this year.  Saints cover in the over, 34-31.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +6.5, O/U: 45)

Seattle has been battling injuries all year on the defensive side of the ball and it’s been next man up.  They still have averaged less than 20 points (barely).  The 49ers are coming off their first win under Shanahan.  Seattle is just too good on offense even with a shaky line.  Take the Seahawks to cover in the under, 30-13.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25p (Cardinals +4.5, O/U: 38)

Arizona hasn’t been the same team since losing Johnson and Palmer.  Adding AP was a last resort move to spark some offense but that has only helped a few weeks.  The Jags have a running game this year which has taken some pressure off of Bortles (since he couldn’t handle it the last few years). Quarterback play is important as Jacksonville has a bit of an upper hand there. Take the Jaguars to cover as road favorites in the under, 21-14.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, 4:25p (Raiders -4, O/U: 43)
The Raiders have had drop issues all season long. With that receiving corps, they should be playing for a playoff birth. Denver last won against the Raiders on October 1st and with Lynch starting, look for Denver to pressure hard, early in this game. The change behind center may add some points to Denver’s side of the board but it’ll still be the same outcome. Take the Raiders to cover in the over, 27-21.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30p (Steelers -14, O/U: 43.5)
The Packers head into Steel town against a hot home team. Hundley has looked poor in his starts and that’ll continue against a good Steelers defense (allowing on average, less than 17/game).  There’s no hope for the Pack in this one. Take the Steelers to cover in the over, 30-14.

 

 

Week 12: Thanksgiving Games

As we all are getting ready to sharpen those knives and dig in to our family feast, the NFL is sharpening their claws and getting ready to dig into their opponents on one of the biggest traditions in America, Thanksgiving NFL football.  It’s the one thing I really loved looking forward to every year and for a handful of years it was usually my boy Favre and the Packers against a then, very bad Lions teams.  You could almost gaurantee a nice little blowout win on such a glorious feasting day.  You could almost also always expect John Madden to gab about Turduckens and eating mass amounts of food, Madden talk about the “big guys” on the field playing quicker so they could get to eat sooner and mention players like Gilbert Brown all the time and you could also hear him salivate when talking about all of the food that was on his mind.

Have no fear if you’re busy cooking and don’t have time to do some last minute research on the games because you’re cooking, I have your back on the picks:

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 12:30p (Lions +2.5, O/U: 45.5)

The Vikings suffered a bad loss at home against the Lions nearly 2 months ago.  That game also featured the last timewe saw Dalvin Cook suited up for a game before his devistating knee injury.  It’s also the last time they lost a game.  Case Keenum was just getting his feet wet as the full time starter.  The Vikings have had one of the best defenses this year, only allowing just over 17 points per game.  The Lions have had one of the worst offenses in the league, in the terms of yards per play.  They don’t really have a good run game and rely on Matt Stafford way too much.  Lately they’ve shown decent flashes in the backfield but nothing to bank on.  The Lions defense overall can keep it together mostly but can get gashed even by an average running back at times.  This team still deals with a lot of close games so don’t expect a this one to be any different.  It’s going to be revenge time in Detroit as Case will have this team moving consistantly in the air and on the ground now that Latavious Murray seems to have gotten into a groove.  Take the Vikings to win in the over, 27-24.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30p (Cowboys +1.5, O/U: 46.5)

The Chargers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL and especially on the road.  They have one of the best road records against the spread (along with teams like the Panthers, Sants, Jaguars).  Don’t sleep on the amazing pass rush they have because Joey Bosa is a mad man at the snap of the ball.  Rivers is having a decent season although he is a bit low on the completion percentage.  The team isn’t having success on the offensive line, creating enough push for Melvin Gordon to be himself as he only averages about 3.8 yards per carry this year.  The Cowboys come into game 3 without Zeke in their backfield and you saw how that limited their offense last week.  Yes, it was a bad loss to the Eagles and yes they are going to want to get after it today but it doesn’t change the hole they have behind Dak.  Dak has still been acceptional with his accuracy but he just didn’t look as great without his star back.  Usually you need to use the run game to offset your passing game so as not to look so one dimensional, well, that’s now the Cowboys.  I’d be very skeptical of most of you if you don’t place a bet on the Chargers in this one. Take the Chargers to cover in the over, 27-21.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins, 8:30p (Redskins -7, O/U: 45)

The NFL really knows how to pick see the future.  Usually by this time of the night on Thanksgiving you’re feasted out, desert has been served, you’re maybe on your last beer or glass of win on the night before heading back to your cave to hybernate or maybe you’re already in your food coma and are resting that food baby you just grew.

If so, you’re not going to miss much in this one.  The Giants have one of the worste scoring offenses in the league with a coach that is described to the public as an offensive guru.  Well I guess he can’t be much of a guru without his big time pieces?  Anyways, Eli not having decent weapons to throw to have made his season miserable.  They started the season with a list of running backs that could potentially be their guy, but they didn’t know who.  That guy at the moment seems to have been Orleans Darkwa who is having his best season as a pro however, that is not saying much given he was never thought to be a feature back.  The Redskins have had one up and down year.  They’ve had a tough strength of schedule and even beat teams like the Rams and Seahawks, both on the road.  Last week was a bit of a disappointer but they nearly upset the Saints on the road in OT.  Cousins is enjoying himself another good year, maybe this time the Redskins will give him a long term deal for it.  He’s been one of the most consistantly good quarterbacks in the league the last few years and the organization hasn’t done a whole lot to help him with big time receivers.  Nonetheless, he’s played very well and even showed some flashses of Aaron Rodgers in the Seattle game, winning in the 4th quarter.  This shouldn’t be close however, this being a short week.  The Giants might still be on their win hangover from last week.  Take the Redskins to cover in the under, 31-13.

There you have it folks, picks are in so call your bookie and go enjoy your family feast!  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 

Week 11: Monday Night Football

The 1 o’clock games haven’t been too friendly as of late and even though I started off with a win on Thursday night, I fell out of the gate Sunday.  There were some really big surprises like the Giants winning, that really came out of left field.  We ended up 6-6-1 with a chance at still going 54% with a win tonight.  On to tonights game:

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks +1, O/U: 46)

The

Week 11: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Starting the week with a win on Thursday is something I’ve done quite a bit this year.  Getting that first win sets the tone for my picks for the rest of the week.  It’s not that I’ll be a little more risky with my picks after a Thursday win or more cautious if I had lost but the confidence is stronger and there’s less second guessing.  I’m on my road to magical numbers and I haven’t lost sight of the overall goal (56%-60%) winners.

I told you the Steelers are just a different team at home, however I didn’t expect the cover win by 23!  Mariota didn’t look too comfortale early and that ruined whatever confidence he had coming into the ketchup bottle.  If you liked that pick and took it, you’re going to love these.  On to Sunday’s games:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)

The Bears are coming off a shocking loss against the Packers.  Mitch-a-palooza had to strap up his work belt extra tight given that his rushing game was non-existant.  Howard had 15 carries for 54 yards (3.6 yards per carry) but one rush snapped off for 25 which puts his other 14 carries at just over 2 yards per carry.  Bears can’t put that much on Trubisky’s shoulders and expect to win.  The Lions had trouble putting the Browns away last week.  Being tied with the Browns heading into the 4th quarter at home, has me nervous about them along with both teams record against the spread (5-4) and the Lions away ATS record (3-1) and the Bears home ATS record (4-1).  Take the Lions to cover in the over, 27-20.  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7.5, O/U: 37)

The Browns come into this game with one of the lowest scoring offenses (15.9) in the league while facing one of the best defenses who has allowed the least amount of points to it’s opponents (14.9).   The Browns held it together for three strong quarters agains the Lions in Detroit last week which tells me that they still repect their coach and will play hard, even being winless.  The Jaguars pulled out an OT win against the Chargers who are a very strong road team.  Bortles slipped into his old was with low completion percentage and more picks than TD’s but were able to steal a win.  Take the Jaguars to cover in the under, 24-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers +2, O/U: 38)

The Packers picked up a crucial win against the Bears last week, and right when I wrote off Hundley.  Unfortunately for the Packers, Montgomery and Jones are both likely to miss this game meaning Jamaal Williams will have to fill in, which he did very successfully last week.  Baltimore had a bye week but the week before, they nearly knocked off the Titans in their own house.  This coming from a team that just seems very bland and not really excitting, especially on the road.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2, O/U: 37.5)

In a league where your quarterback is the most valuable player on your team (and highest paid player), it’s inheriantly important that they stay healthy.  With Palmer and Watson out, it becomes a battle between Stanton and Savage.  Get ready for 50% completions and a bunch of running.  These kinds of games make picking a winner very hard.  You litterally have to go through the rosters and base it off of the position matchup and then if you’re still baffled, go to coaching.  Here, I like the coaching and the offense of the Cardinals so take them to cover in the under, 17-13.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 45.5)

This is an interesting matchup, one to watch.  Both teams are 7-2, 6-3 ATS, at the top of their divisions, and have exceeded their pre-season expectations from day one.  The Vikings had doneit with Sam Bradford in the first game but with Case Keenum ever since, which is impressive.  The Rams success started with the change at head coach which seemed to have sparked Jared Goff.  Both defenses are solid but expect this to be more of a shootout.  Again, we have to matchup the QB’s and start spelling out who’s better where.  The Rams just have a stronger team and will cover in the over, 31-27.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 51.5)

Nothing to surprise you with here about the Saints.  They have returned to their offensive prowess but also added some solid running to their game.  Drew Brees isn’t throwing as many passes but still is effective while he has Ingram and Kamra behind him enjoying great seasons especially since Ap has left town.  The Redskins followed up their huge win in Seattle by hanging along another of the leagues better teams, the Vikings but ultimately losing.  The Redskins have a commitee backfield which is tough to get consistency running the ball.  Take the Saints to cover in the under, 31-17.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +10.5, O/U:+45.5)

So this is where the Giants are at, they lost to the (at the time) winless 49ers.  Eli kept it together and didn’t throw a pick but his defense (which is supposed to be their bright spot), broke down badly.  Run game, pass game, the 49ers just had their way with the Giants defense.  The Chiefs had to deal with Zeke who whittled their defense down for 27 carries.  Andy Reid off of bye weeks is one of if not the best at coming away with a win.  Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +1, O/U: 42)

The matchup that was supposed to happen week one is finally on 11 weeks later.  Given the way they both have played this year, I wouldn’t be mad if they just took another bye week.  They both have disappointing offenses and to demonstrate how this game with go, grease your hand up with butter and try to turn a door nob.  Take the Buccs to cover in the under, 17-14.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 41)

The Bills are turning to their rookie quarterback (seems to be a growing trend lately), marking his first start and road game seeing action.  McCoy hasn’t been his normal self.  The Chargers have been pressing opponents lately, at home and on the road (mostly on the road).  The Chargers nearly stole one in Jacsonville last week.  This week the Chargers take over the rookie with their dangerous pass rush and to cover in the under, Chargers 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -2.5, O/U: 38)

The Bengals just haven’t looked right all year.  The frustrations seems to boil a few weeks ago when Green was throwing haymakers in the first half.  Dalton looked better this week but with no running game, they can’t setup defenses for the pass.  The Broncos are another example of why quarterbacks are important to your team.  Not just important, vital!  Siemianhasn’t worked since last year and to be so desperate to bring back Osweiller, says a lot about how they feel about their QB situation.  I feel like the Bronceos defense won’t allow another loss at home.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 16-10.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (MC), 4:25p (Raiders +7.5, O/U: 54.5)

Mexico City will see their first NFL game in live action and it’s two well respected and talented teams.  I said this earlier and actually called it in my first game this year, I like the Patriots but 7 or more points are reserved for team like the Browns, Giants, Colts and maybe even the 49ers.  Neutral field games for the Patriots (basically all of their super bowls), have mostly all been close but it is Tom Brady we’re talking about.  The Raiders  had a slip up in the beginning with Carr missing some games but are back on track with a couple of wins strunge together.  Big bets are on the Pats and this being a neutral field, makes it that much tougher.  Take the Raiders to cover but loss in the under, Pats 24-21.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30p (Cowboys +6, O/U: 48)

The Eagles come into this one as one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL.  Carson Wentz and his new additions have been lights out and the defense has been quite impressive as well, but offense always gets the head lines.  The Eagles have shown consistency week in and week out and will continue to do so this week.  The Cowboys have been on the Zeke roller coaster every week with news he’d be either in or out of the headlines.  Well, Zeke is finally going to serve those 6 weeks and the ‘Boys will be down Sean Lee as well, whose the go to guy or the quarterback of the defense.  This all coming as the season takes a turn to the finish line.   Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 had an amazing start.  Four weeks in, he was 15-5 (75% winners) but have calmed to a very respectable 30-20 (60%) but he is still picking gem weeks.  He really likes Chiacago becasue he’s been burnt by the Lions before.  Some advice, when I agree with betting on a team with Colin, my record is 21-10 (68% winners).  This week, we’ll call them locks, Packers and Eagles.  I actually would bet HEAVY on the Eagles if you get them anywhere near his line but even at 7 or less really.  Here are his picks/lines from Friday:

  • Detroit at Chicago – Chicago (+3)
  • Cincinnati at Denver – Denver (-2.5)
  • Tampa Bay at Miami – Tampa Bay (+3)
  • Baltimore at Green Bay – Green Bay (+2)
  • Philadelphia at Dallas – Philadelphia (-3.5)

 

 

Week 11: Thursday Night Football

Last week ended in success but I floundered on the 1pm games again but stopped the leaking sieve on my Thursday night 3 week skid, with a push.  8-5-1 gets me back on track with 62% winners.  Just call me the John Anthony of the blogosphere.  Yes I did just watch Two for the Money this week.  We’ll have some really good matchups but difficult for me to pick.  We’ll get to that this weekend, on to tonight:

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:25p (Steelers -7, O/U: 44.5)

I’ve been saying this for weeks that the Steelers are a different team at home and another team on the road.  I know they’ve won a bunch on the road but it’s the covers (or lack there of) that gives away the difference in this team on the road versus playing at home.  They’ve managed to pull the team together since the anthem issues early, to rally.  Their defense has outperformed expectations and have been keeping opponents to less than 17 points on average, per game.  Bell and Brown have quietly climbed above the 800 yard mark as Big Ben has over 2200 yards.

The Titans need to win to stay atop of their division with the Jaguars nipping at their heels.  The Titans have a nicely balanced team and have also been fairly quiet team chilling at 6-3 in the AFC, also pushing for a playoff spot.  Mariota has been nursing through his hamstring but still has been affective for his team but still has been a 7 TD/ 6 INT ratio.  The run game has been on and off all year which doesn’t help Mariota get into a rhythm through the air.  The Titans will have to bring their “A” game in order to top this team who can be very hot at home at the ketchup bottle.

Take the Steelers to cover in the over, 31-21.

 

 

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