Month: November 2018

Week 13: Thursday Night Football

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:20p, NFLN (Cowboys +8, O/U: 52.5)

New Orleans comes in with the league’s best offense, averaging 37.2 points per game. They’ve also only turned the ball over 9 times, tied for the league lead. Michael Thomas has 86 catches already and Kamara has been hot all year, especially the last 6 games where he has 9 touchdowns! The Saints also lead the league in rushing defense which is more than likely from teams being forced to throw more given how quick the Saints go up early in games, which has caused the pass defense to be 30th worst in the league. The rush defense will be tested tonight.

The Cowboys have really turned it up lately since Amari Cooper has come aboard eventhough he’s really only been involved in the offense starting last week on Thanksgiving with an 8 catch, 180 yards and 2 touchdown performance, looking like the first rounder he was supposed to be. Garrett will have to strategize against the Saints and do his best to keep the Saints high powered offense off the field. That means utilizing the league’s leading rusher, Zeke (1,074 rushing yards). But when the ‘Boys defense is on the field, they’ll need Lawrence to continue his wrath of the last 4 games where he’s snagged 3 of his 8.5 sacks on the season. Question is, can the Cowboys newly found 3 headed monster keep up with the Medusa (multiple weapons) offensive threat of the Saints?

Take the Saints to cover on the road in the over, Saints 36-24.

#beatyourbookie

Week 12: Monday Night Football

Tennessee at Houston, 8:20p, ESPN (Texans -4, O/U: 43)

The Titans have been an up and down team all year long.  They have wins against the Texans earlier this year as well as the Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys and Jaguars.  They’ve also lost by 1 at the Bills and at the Chargers but also were blown out by the Ravens at home and the Colts in Indy.  Mariota has been fairly efficient with the ball, completing a career best so far 67.6% of his passes however, 7 TD’s to 6 picks and only a measly 1500 yards isn’t going to help the team.  The league has been accommodating offenses and especially in the passing game.  If Mariota can’t consistently get to the 250-300 yard mark with at least 2 TD’s each game, he will be replaced.

The Texans will be playing tonight with heavy hearts after their owner Bob McNair passed away just days ago.  After starting the year off 0-3, they’ve righted the ship to go on a 7 game winning streak.  The Texans passing game has also been light on yards and Watson hasn’t been so careful with the ball with his 2:1 td/int ratio but they’ve been playing much better on defense and getting after the quarterback.  JJ Watt has had a sack in each of his last 3 games, 10 in the last 8 weeks only missing out on the sack party in weeks 1, 2 and 7, and he looks to continue that tonight.  Clowney adds another 6.5 sacks in his 9 games played, 4 in his last 4 weeks.  They’ll be hungry to go after Mariota, a squirrely quarterback but can be caught in his pocket from time to time.

Take the Texans to cover in the over, Texans 28-20.

8-6 so far this week, it’ll be a winning week but lets make it a 60% week with a cover tonight!  Good Luck all!

#beatyourbookie

Week 12: Sunday Games

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00p, CBS (Bengals -1, O/U: 47)

Browns haven’t strung together wins in a long time. Huge win last week against the Falcons, used up a ton of energy and emotion to pull off. Bengals head a bad loss at home against the Saints but hung in there on the road against division rival Ravens. Take the Bengals to cover in the over, Bengals 31-20.

Jacksonville at Buffalo, 1:00p, CBS (Bills +3, O/U: 37)

Sacksonville will have their hands full with Allen back for the Bill’s (it’s legit this time, I actually checked before writing this). Fournette has been a difference maker for the offense and they don’t have to rely on Bortles. As I mentioned, welcome back Allen but what a tough defense to face in your first game back. It’ll be similar to the Jags at Colts earlier this season, back and forth until the end. Take the Jaguars to cover in the over, Jags 28-24.

New England at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets +13, O/U: 46.5)

Patriots were only 9.5 point favorites before Gronk was listed as active. I don’t think he’s worth that much of a swing. Jets are coming off of a bye but they looked ugly before it and I don’t think there’s much they can improve in with just more prep time, they need players on offense. Take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 31-17.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00p, FOX (Eagles -5, O/U:50)

The Giants offense is looking good as of late. Eli is completing a bunch of his passes and they’re having fun, big key. The Eagles had another key secondary injury which amounts to about a handful of starters on defense being out. Don’t get me wrong, the Eagles can still be effective on offense. Take the Giants to cover in the loss, in the over, Eagles 27-24.

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00p, CBS (Ravens -13, O/U: 42)

I really don’t like this number on the Ravens but the Raiders are so inefficient in offense and have had close games only against bad teams. Jackson is exciting and is facing the league’s 31st worst defense against the run. Take the Ravens to cover in the under, Ravens 27-13.

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00p, FOX (Panthers -3, O/U: 47)

The Seahawks have been giving teams fits in the road the last bunch of road games but the Panthers play awesome at home and Cam has been dialed in at home, high completion percentage. Take the Panthers to cover in the over, Panthers 31-24.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -2, O/U: 54.5)

49ers can score but lose former first rounder Foster at linebacker due to domestic violence issues. Buccs have all the yards but no scores, expect that to change today. Take the Buccs to cover in the under, Buccs 28-20.

Arizona at L.A. Chargers, 4:05p, FOX (Chargers -14, O/U: 43.5)

Cards are horrific on offense, they can move it between the rookie hookup (Rosen/Kirk) but they haven’t done much outside of them. Johnson finally has started seeing some consistency. The Charges don’t play as well at home as on the road (broken record) but it’s the Cards. Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 36-17.

Pittsburgh at Denver, 4:25p, CBS (Broncos +3, O/U: 47.5)

It’s cold, they’re throwing salt down on the stands for the fans but the Steelers are a tough team and also play in the cold. The better run game wins here. Take the Broncos to cover in the loss, in the under, Steelers 21-20.

Miami at Indianapolis, 4:25p, CBS (Colts -9, O/U: 52)

Colts spank the Dolphins. Not much else to say, Colts look legit. Take the Colts to cover in the over, Colts 36-20.

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:20p, NBC (Vikings -3, O/U: 48)

Both teams had close, though losses last week against surging teams. The Vikings didn’t look themselves on offense but Rodgers looked really good. Difference maker will be the quarterback play. Take the Packers to cover in the win, in the over, Packers 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • Chicago at Detroit – Detroit (+3.5)
  • Seattle at Carolina – Carolina (-3.5)
  • Cleveland at Cincinnati – Cleveland (+3)
  • NY Giants at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6)
  • Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay (+3.5)

#beatyourbookie

Week 12: Thanksgiving Games

Chicago at Detroit, 12:30p, CBS (Lions +3, O/U: 43.5)

The Lions have been hard to watch most of the season and in weeks 9 & 10 they allowed open hunting on Stafford. Last week was a different story and with Marvin Jones out, second year guy Kenny Galladay stepped up big time. He’ll have to do so again today as Jones is trending to be out again.

For the Bears, last week was a huge victory against a Vikings team coming off a bye. Mitch-a-polooza looked a bit shakey but got the job done however Chase Daniel will get the start this week with Mitch out with an injury. Hicks and Mack both had sacks last week and given how this line looked just a few weeks ago, they’ll have some early dessert on the field early at Matt Staffords expense. Take the Bears to cover in the over, Bears 24-20.

Washington at Dallas, 4:30p, FOX (Cowboys -7, O/U: 41)

Poor Alex Smith didn’t have history on his side last Sunday as he broke his leg on the same day as Joe Theismann did 33 years ago. Colt McCoy came in and nearly brought the team back against a strong Texans team. Peterson might have a tougher time finding the endzone today given how the ‘Boys defense has been playing lately.

The Cowboys have put together huge back to back wins against the former champs (Eagles) and a high powered offense (Falcons). Climbing out of the NFC East basement has been tough and Garett has had his job threatened by the fan base all season long (last 4 years really), but since the Cooper trade, there seems to be a shift in confidence now. Let’s not forget the emerging star on defense, Leighton Vander Esch whose had an interception each of the last two weeks. I think 7 points is too much though given how well McCoy played. Take the Redskins to cover in the loss, in the over, Cowboys 27-21.

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:20p, NBC (Saints -13, O/U: 60.5)

Two highly talented offenses will meet in the Superdome for an expectedly high scoring game. Three weeks ago, the Falcons finally found a way to get Julio Jones in the endzone and he’s done so each of the last three weeks however they’ve lost to the Browns and Cowboys the last two weeks. Only getting to the redzone once and not scoring won’t help turn the ship around. Ryan doesn’t turn the ball over much and has been efficient with a 4:1 td/int ratio. Expect that to continue.

The Saints have been on fire all season long. After a week one loss, they’ve rattled off nine straight wins and not many have been all that close and against teams like the Vikings, Rams and the Falcons earlier this season. Brees and his 25 touchdowns to 1 pick, he’s having about as perfect of a season as one can. Michael Thomas is in pace for about 130 catches and about 180 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Falcons don’t escape this one. Take the Saints in the over, Saints 42-27.

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Sunday Games

Carolina at Detroit, 1:00p, FOX (Lions +4.5, O/U: 49)

The Lions look atrocious due to VERY poor offensive line. Carolina looks very legit this year and even playing well on the road. Take the Panthers to cover in the over, Panthers 31-20.

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00p, CBS (Ravens -6, O/U: 41.5)

With Green doubtful to play for a second week, he will leave the offense reeling again as they struggled mightily last week against a Saints defense that isn’t that great. The Ravens are coming off of a bye week which usually means they’re going to be the better prepared team but with Flacco dealing with a hip injury that could keep him out, they have to start rookie Lamar Jackson and RG3 backing him up (who was inactive for their first 9 games). Take the Bengals to cover and win in the under, Bengals 17-14.

Dallas at Atlanta, 1:00p, FOX (Falcons -3, O/U: 49)

Dallas’ defense looked tremendous in the absence of Sean Lee, shutting down last year’s champs. The offense still sputtered at times but played better than they have been. The Falcons offense has been up to the task all season but it’s their defense that’s been lacking. Big questions for both, how does the Falcons loss in Cleveland affect them this week and with an emotional divisional win against the Eagles, do the Cowboys struggle with endurance when it gets to the 4th? Both teams are still in playoff hunt mode and now this game as a must win. Take the Falcons to cover in the under, Falcons 24-20.

Houston at Washington, 1:00p, CBS (Redskins +3, O/U: 43.5)

The Texans are on fire. 6 straight wins have them rolling and looking at snatching a division championship here in a few weeks. Yes, they’ve won a few of those by coin flips but a win is a win and they have 6 in a row and Demaryius Thomas helps them in the wake of losing Fuller. The Redskins struggled in Tampa, offensively and come home in front of their fans to which there has been tension according to Josh Norman. Take the Redskins to cover in the loss, in the over, Texans 21-20.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 1:00p, CBS (Jaguars +6, O/U: 47)

The Steelers looked absolutely stunning last week, early and often against a solid Panthers team. Big Ben had 5 touchdowns to 5 different receivers. Look for the Steelers to be efficient but not as powerful as they usually are at home. The Jags stumbled out of the gates and haven’t recovered much since. Fournette has helped but they haven’t won since week 4. The Steelers are out for revenge after losing twice to the Jaguars last year. Take the Steelers to cover in over, Steelers 28-20.

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants, 1:00p, FOX (Giants -3, O/U: 54)

Tampa nearly laid an egg at home against a not so powerful punching Redskins last week. Fitzmagic worked only between the endzones however. The Giants will be looking to spend a little extra effort blocking former teammate JPP as they look to build momentum on last week’s win against the 49ers undrafted rookie surprise Nick Mullens. They will exploit the Tampa defense like everyone else. Take the Giants to cover in the under, Giants 24-20.

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts-1.5, O/U: 50)

The Titans have been pesky and unpredictable and once again proved me wrong in beating (more like annihilating) the Patriots. They have statement wins but no consistency. The Colts beat a good Jaguars defense last week in the air, which many teams struggle to do against them. Luck hasn’t been sacked much all season either. The Colts cover in the over, Colts 31-27.

Denver at L.A. Chargers, 4:05p, CBS (Chargers -7, O/U: 46.5)

Denver has been in most all of their losses. They can still make big plays on offense and have a more solid rushing game these days. The Broncos defense is still one of the best. Remember, the Chargers home field is not really a home field for them and they usually play worse there than at other stadiums around the league. If this was last week, the Broncos might’ve covered in a loss but Bosa is back. Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers

Oakland at Arizona, 4:05p, CBS (Cardinals -5, O/U: 41)

Ugly ugly ugly game to watch. Both teams struggle to score, Cardinals more so than the Raiders. Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 20-13.

Philadelphia at New Orleans, 4:25p, FOX (Saints -7.5, O/U: 57.5)

Big time scoring game is coming your way. The Eagles lost a tough one at home Austin division rival Cowboys. They lost their last key corner, Darby, for the season in that game. Brees and the offense will exploit the depleted secondary. Take the Saints to cover big in the over, Saints 44-28.

Minnesota at Chicago, 8:20p, NBC (Bears -2.5, O/U: 44)

The Vikings are coming off a bye week and their defense was humming going into it. Yes they have had moments where they struggled but those growing pains are now over with Cousins and he’s really hitting some big throws. The Bears pass rush has been improved with getting Mack but he’s only one man. The rest of the defense has fed off of his energy and has one of the best defenses in regards of turnovers. Problem is, Cousins doesn’t turn the ball over much. Mitch-a-polooza has to continue being as good as he has been the last 6 weeks. Both teams fighting to lead this division. Take the Vikings to come in and upset the bears in the over, Vikings 31-28.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • Minnesota at Chicago – Minnesota (+3)
  • Tennessee at Indianapolis – Tennessee (+2)
  • Oakland at Arizona – Oakland (+5.5)
  • Denver at LA Chargers – Denver (+7)
  • Kansas City at LA Rams – Kansas City (+3.5)

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Thursday Night Football

Green Bay vs. Seattle, 8:20p, NFLN (Seahawks -3, O/U: 50)

Finally! This matchup is one that us Packers fans look forward to each time it’s scheduled, no thanks to the scab refs. This was also was a tough matchup to predict given how well both teams played against the Rams, nearly pulling off big upsets, both in LA.

The Packers found a running game last week and the Seahawks finally started to block got Wilson. Take the Packers on the road to cover and win in the over, Packers 27-24.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Monday Night Football

New York vs. San Francisco, 8:20p, ESPN (49ers -3, O/U: 45)

Outside of Saquan Barkley, there really isn’t a bright spot on this offense. Sure they’ve kept some games close and even beat the Texans on the road but when the game has come down to the last possessions, the Giants couldn’t score. Manning hasn’t been terrible but he’s not exactly getting it done like a franchise quarterback at this stage in his career should be.

The 49ers have gone through their own messes throughout the season but mostly on the injury side of things. With CJ Beathard out last week recovering from a concussion, undrafted rookie Nick Mullins filled in and made the most of his opportunity by throwing for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looked super comfortable and confident which is a scary combination for defenses especially for an undrafted rookie looking to make an impression.

Mullins gets the start again and has some buzz around him with an offense that still is playing hard for their coach. Take the 49ers to cover in the over, 49ers 27-21.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Sunday Games

Arizona at Kansas City, 1:00p, FOX (Chiefs -15.5, O/U: 50)

These games are always tough to put money on but the Chiefs have beaten better teams by two touchdowns. The issue with the Cardinals is their offense and the lack of points being scored. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 38-18.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets -7.5, O/U: 38)

This game isn’t going to be pretty with McCown in for an injured Darnold and Allen coming back from his concussion. Allen gives the Bills the best chance to win obviously because he has been the jack of all trades given he led his team in rushing up until his injury. Take the Bills to cover and win in the under, Bills 17-14.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -3, O/U: 48)

Reports out of Jacksonville state that the locker room is pissed off and will play as such being on a four game slide. Fournette is scheduled to make his return this week. Luck has been on fire this season and his much much much improved offensive line hasn’t allowed him to be sacked in the last 3 weeks. That truly gives us a sense as to what Luck can do with time in the pocket even without big name receivers. This is one of the games of the week to watch. Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 24-20.

New England at Tennessee, 1:00p, CBS (Titans +7, O/U: 47.5)

It’s a big spread on the road to cover. If at home, this spread would say that the Patriots would be favored by 13. I had a hard time with this given how inconsistent the Titans have been this year. Other things to consider, Gronk is out for Brady and the Titans have been tough against the run. It’s hard to go against Brady/Belichick so don’t, take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 24-14.

New Orleans at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals +6, O/U: 54)

The Saints are coming off of a big time win last week at home that saw them start off HOT but completely cool off in the 2nd half but still held off the high powered Rams offense. The Bengals line many good, not great, teams play so much better at home in front of their fans. Andy Dalton had played well this year but can fall under the spell of the turnover bug but rarely does so at home. No Green to throw to will limit this offense. I think the line is fare. Take the Saints to cover in the win in the over, Saints 31-24.

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3, O/U: 51)

Fitzmagic is back and looked about as good as he did before Winston came off suspension. The defense still had trouble stopping teams and the Redskins have looked good with the resurrection of AP in the backfield and field general Alex Smith moving the offense. The Redskins pass rush has looked good in recent weeks and will continue that trend this week. Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-21.

Atlanta at Cleveland, 1:00p, FOX (Browns +6, O/U: 51)

The Browns are in disarray even though they’re scoring, their defense isn’t playing to the caliber they’re used to and they are now facing their third high powered offense in 3 weeks. Julio Jones is finally on the score sheet which will give him more motivation to get in again today. Take the Falcons to cover in the over, Falcons 35-24.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00p, FOX (Bears -7.5, O/U: 44)

The Lions looked atrocious on offense last week, allowing Stafford to get sacked 10 times! The Lions will be missing key defensive players. Mack will be back so look for more of the same view from the turf for Stafford. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland, 4:05p, FOX (Raiders +10, O/U: 50)

I feel like I say this 8 times a year but again, the Chargers are a better team on the road. The Raiders are also another team in turmoil and their offense is LACKING. Take the Chargers to easily cover in the under, Chargers 31-17.

Miami at Green Bay, 4:25p, CBS (Packers -10.5, O/U: 48.5)

I understand that Osweiler has played well in his 4 starts but they’re going to the frozen tundra. Rodgers will have Valdez-Scantling getting more snaps in Allison’s absence, who had shown in previous games that he is a rookie that can offer big play ability along with Cobb and Adams. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 34-17.

Seattle at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, CBS (Rams -9, O/U: 51)

The Rams haven’t covered in the last few weeks and are coming off a huge game against the Saints on the road. They’ve also dealt with less practice time due to taking Friday off to help family and friends evacuate their homes due to the fires. Russell Wilson rarely loses by over a touchdown and they’ve played inspired football lately. Take the Rams to win an emotional game by the Seahawks to cover in the loss, in the under, Rams 27-21.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles -7.5, O/U: 44)

This will be another sloppy game by Dallas. They don’t have the weapons to give Dak many options. The Eagles added Golden Tate to the corps of receivers for Wentz to help make up for the lack of power in the backfield. Take the Eagles to cover big in the over, Eagles 27-14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • New Orleans at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (+5.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-3)
  • New England at Tennessee – New England (-6.5)
  • Seattle at LA Rams – Seattle (+10)
  • Dallas at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6.5)

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Carolina at Pittsburgh, 8:20p, NFLN (Steelers -3.5, O/U: 51.5)

Finally, we get a game on Thursday worthy of most football fans’ time.

The Panthers have enjoyed the last couple of games with Eric Reid on board to help the defense as the offense keeps rolling at home.  On the road, it’s a little bit of a different story where Cam stays the same but the offense doesn’t score as much.  History points to the Panthers as being a weak road team and even though they’ve lost 2 of 3 on the road (their only 2 losses), they were within 7 points in both games.  In fact, Cam has been stellar as far as his completion percentage and passer rating.  Cam is certainly having a career year but not only is Cam playing well, Christian McCaffrey is having a fantastic sophomore season in the NFL as well.

The Steelers have enjoyed a 4 game winning streak that started after a week 4 loss at home to division foe, Ravens.  That loss put them 0-2 at home and 1-2-1 overall with the season in peril, uncertainty with the Bell situation, turmoil in the organization with AB until they met the high flying Falcons at home the next week.  They haven’t looked back since.  Yes Big Ben has thrown 7 picks but also has 16 touchdowns, Conner slightly outperforming Bell from last year with the same amount of starts and Brown might not have a ton of yards or a great average per catch but has 9 touchdowns.  The defense has been in lockdown mode the last 4 weeks.

With the defense in lockdown mode, take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-27.

#beatyourbookie

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