Month: October 2018

New England at Buffalo, 8:15p, ESPN (Bills +14, O/ 44.5)

Last week I mistakenly thought that Josh Allen was starting and totally blew that pick which helped me finish 7-7 and not 8-6, silly me, poor write up, that’s what I get.  I won’t make the same mistake this week however.  Seeing the score of the Bills game last week made me realize that Josh Allen was the glue that held that ship semi above water.  He was the saving grace to give some hope in possibly covering spreads like this one given his raw talent and fiery competitiveness.  Derek Anderson used to be a capable fill in but not on short notice with a brand new team, trying to learn an offense and gain trust in receivers in 2 weeks.

The Patriots absolutely love coming into these divisional matchups against a weaker team like the Bills.  They love establishing who the king is, who owns the division, how great they are.  Belichick will run up the score in the first 3 3/4 quarters of the game and if necessary, they’ll still slap you in the face in that last 1/4th of the fourth quarter.  They just don’t have fun, they might a little since Gronk is on the team but they show up to do a job, say their peace to opposing players on the team and leave.  That’s what they do and that’s how they’ve been mentally focused since 2000.

Game note, Josh Gordon will sit the first several series for being late to a team meeting.  He’s feeling the wrath of Bill Belichick just 6 weeks into his stay with the Patriots.  Could that be a sign that he’s already slipping?  We shall see in the coming weeks.

It’s one of the leagues best versus one of the leagues worst.  It’s been 10 years since Monday night football has been in Buffalo and after tonight, it’ll be 10 years until they come back.  Take the Patriots to cover in the win and in the under, Patriots 28-10.

#beatyourbookie

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons, 8:20p, ESPN (Falcons -4.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Giants come into this road contest with the 23rd best offense and the 15th best defense.  One of the reasons their defense is ranked so high is because of their defensive secondary.  They come in ranked 12th only allowing 236 yards through the air.  Points wise, they are abysmal.  The Giants have allowed on average 27 points each game but in the last 3 of those games (2 of which were at home), the Giants have averaged just over 33 points/game and against some potent offenses.  Eli Manning hasn’t been the greatest, the offensive line has been choppy at best but when OBJ has gotten the ball, he’s been effective but only has 1 touchdown.  Barkley has been the only consistent shinning light, rushing for 438 yards, averaging over 5 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns and catching 40 balls for 373 yards and another 2 scores.

The Falcons have been out to prove everyone that they can score in the red zone and they’ve been much improved compared to last year but poor Julio Jones has all of the catches and yards and has yet to catch a single touchdown pass.  Instead rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, has been second on the team in catches along with Mohamed Sanu.  Ridley barely leads Sanu in yards but leads the whole team in touchdowns, with 6.  The Falcons however have had the same troubles on defense as previous years and one of the eye sores is the rush defense (121 yards allowed) and also allowing a ton of points (averaging 32 points allowed per game), which is part of the reason they’re 2-4.

They may give up some big chunk plays to Barkley and a couple of scores but look for the Falcons to cover the spread in a closer than it should be win, in the over, Falcons 31-24.

#beatyourbookie

Tennessee at L.A. Chargers, 9:30a, CBS (Chargers -7, O/U: 45)

No one has done better away from home than the Chargers. Playing in a soccer stadium in LA that you can’t fill prepares you for something like this. I guarantee you that there will be more Chargers fans in Wembly than all season so far at home in LA. Take the Chargers to win, covering in the over, Chargers 28-20.

Buffalo at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -7, O/U: 43)

The colts have improved from last year but Josh Allen can ball! Take the Colts to win but the Bills cover in the loss, in the under, Colts 24-18.

Carolina at Philadelphia, 1:00p, FOX (Eagles -5, O/U: 45)

The Panthers have a strong offense with emerging rookies/young guys, however, their defense still hasn’t answered the call on big games. The Eagles and Wentz have started to hit their stride. Wentz off to an fantastic start (8 picks to 1 interception) but they will have a hard time running against this defense. Take the Eagles to take advantage amongst the Panthers (once) touch team win in the over, Eagles 34-28.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3.5, O/U: 52.5)

Nick Chubb named the guy in the backfield, is averaging 10.8 yards per carry on 16 carries. Look for Chubb top double his yearly total on carries with minimum of 20. Baker has been sitting at about 55% completion should have a field day against a Tampa Bay defense that allows 9 yards per play attempt. Winston had a strong game last week in a close loss to a solid Falcons team. Look for Winston to be effective moving the ball but this defense loves causing turnovers so also expect him to throw some picks. Take the Browns to steal one and cover in the over, Browns 34-28.

Detroit at Miami, 1:00p, FOX (Dolphins +3, O/U: 46.5)

Osweiler leading the Fins? No wonder they went out and got Gore. The Lions aren’t usually the greatest on the road but Stafford has one of the best receiving tandems in the league. Take the Lions to cover in a win, in the under, Lions 27-17.

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00p, CBS (Jags -4, O/U: 41.5)

It’s the battle of the defenses. Bortles plays better at home. The Watt/Clowney duo should pressure Bortles into some hurried throws, possibly some turnovers. Take the Jags to win but the Texans to cover in the under, Jags 21-20.

Minnesota at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, FOX (Jets +3, O/U: 46)

A young rookie completing just under 60% of his throws all season, 9 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, all I need to know. Take the Vikings to cover in the under, Vikings 28-14.

New England at Chicago, 1:00p, CBS (Bears +3, O/U: 43)

Brady was just in a shootout with a hot young gun in Mahomes now has to figure out if he’ll survive against one of, if not, the best pass rusher today, Khalil Mack. No Gronk for the Pats makes this game a tough call. Take the Bears to cover in a win, in the over, Bears 27-24.

New Orleans at Baltimore, 4:05p, FOX (Ravens -3, O/U: 49)

The Saints are typically a different team on the road however there are too many weapons to account for and Brees has been money all year, 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. The Ravens offense has done well and the Saints do give up yardage. Take the Saints to cover in a convincing win, in the over, Saints 31-24.

Dallas at Washington, 4:25p, CBS (Redskins +1, O/U: 41.5)

Both teams haven’t really had that wow factor that allows them to rise to the top of the division. The standout between the two has been Elliott but even his games haven’t been consistent. I’m going to give this one to the better defense. Take the Cowboys to win and cover in the over, Cowboys 31-24.

L.A. Rams at San Francisco, 4:25p, NBC (49ers +10, O/U: 52)

The Rams may be without Kupp but they still have the weapons to get it done. It’s not going to be a normal road game given the distance so expect the Rams to play well. Beathard has done a phenomenal job in Jimmy G’s absence but only has a few weapons he’s comfortable with in Kittle and Goodwin. The Rams defensive front will be all over Beathard forcing him into throws he hasn’t been making lately. Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 35-20.

Cincinnati at Kansas City, 8:20p, CBS (Chiefs -6, O/U: 58)

Mahomes has been on fire all season long and solidified himself as a legit threat and top contender lead his team to a super bowl appearance. No brainer, Chiefs cover big at home in the over, Chiefs 42-28.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

• Buffalo at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-7.5)
• Carolina at Philadelphia – Carolina (+4.5)
• New Orleans at Baltimore – Baltimore (-2.5)
• Dallas at Washington – Washington (-1.5)
• NY Giants at Atlanta – NY Giants (+5.5)

#beatyourbookie

Denver at Arizona, 8:20p, NFLN (Cardinals +1.5, O/U: 42.5)

Coming off a week in which they hung in there with the powerful Vikings, Josh Rosen had a strong game going 21/31 for 240 yards and a pick.  The Chosen Rosen has started to develop a report with fellow rookie Christian Kirk as he’s been his top target since Rosen took the starting job from Sam Bradford.  Rosen has looked better each week and seems to be settling into a more comfortable state with each game he plays.  There are many question heading into the game for both sides but for the Cardinals, is David Johnson going to break out this game against the leagues worst rush defense?

The Broncos have their own set of struggles that they’re working through as I mentioned with the leagues worst rush defense.  They are getting to quarterbacks however with Miller snagging 5.5 sacks and rookie Chubb earning 4.5 himself.  The rushing game which started off on fire in their first two weeks (which were wins) has cooled quickly to basically non-existent as of last week.  They’ve had success through the air (7 touchdowns) however, tossing 8 picks has essentially soured the move to bring Case Keenum on board as “their guy”.

Take the Cardinals to be the true home dogs and steal a win covering in the over, Cardinals 24-21.

#beatyourbookie

San Francisco at Green Bay, 8:15p, ESPN (Packers -9.5, O/U: 46.5)

Rodgers and the Packers have had a rough, up and down start where he’s been dealing with a nagging knee injury since the first half of the first game of the year and his receivers have been dropping like flies the last few weeks.  Luckily there’s a bye week next week which means they can go extra hard on primetime tonight to get the job done and to silence the doubters or at least quiet them for a bit, heading into the middle of the season.  Even while dealing with the knee injury, Rodgers has been his same old productive self (63% completion, 1,500+ yards, 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception).

Aaron Jones has been very effective since coming back, rushing 24 times for 147, averaging 6+ yards per rush and a score.  That has been over the last 3 games, so look for the Packers to get him integrated into the gameplan early to set up the pass game.  Green Bay’s defense needs a big boost heading into the bye week and they certainly have the opportunity to have a big game against a CJ Beathard  led 9ers.

Beathard who has shown flashes of great play has a 1:1 touchdown to interception rate, completing 63% of his passes and was 2 yards shy in his first start of the year from having back to back 300+ yard games.  The weapons he has around him while having Shanahan as his coach is the 9ers saving grace while Jimmy Garaoppolo lounges the rest of the season while rehabbing his season ending knee injury.  Breida has picked up the slack at running back with McKinnon out for the season, also a season ending knee injury, carrying the ball 49 times for 369 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per carry and scoring a solo touchdown.

The 49ers defense has also given up a ton of points and has rarely kept them in games.  Compared to the Packers, the 49ers give up more yards on defense and pickup less yards on offense.  Process of elimination says the Packers at home are destined to have a great game.

Take Rodgers and his Packers to use whatever receivers he needs to, to cover in the win and in the over, Packers 36-24.

#beatyourbookie

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 PM, NFLN (Giants +1.5, O/U: 44.5)

The Eagles have looked like the typical super bowl hangover team. Slow start, injuries, player turnover that affects the teams overall play. The latest injury hurts their running game, losing Ajayi for the rest of the year. Granted, he had just under 200 yards of offense but averaged over 4 yards per carry. There has been speculation that there might be a trade with the Steelers for Bell but late in the week there were reports that the Bills were called about a possible trade for McCoy. Neither came to fruition and the Eagles are stuck platooning Clement and Smallwood, who have the combined ability to get the job done. Either way, the Eagles are in a funk and Pederson needs to right the ship, which he could possibly do against a weary Giants team.

The Giants are coming off a tough loss on the road to the Panthers that saw a nearly scare when Barkley hyperextended his knee a bit after jumping into the endzone for a score. It was a game which lead with a weird interview that OBJ gave with Lil’ Wayne by his side and essentially said Manning is not a good QB anymore and he doesn’t see as many targets as other star receivers and that he needs more looks. Well, they made him the QB on a play and he tosses a huge 57 yard score to Barkley. How’s that for drama?
This one will come down to motivation. Who has the most motivation to turn their season around? Both offensive lines have been sketchy. Both QB’s have seen a ton of pressure the last few weeks.

The Eagles have more to lose since they are 2-3 and not in as big of a hole as the Giants. Take the Eagles to steal one on the road, Eagles win and cover in the over, Eagles 31-27.

#beatyourbookie

Washington vs New Orleans, 8:15p, ESPN (Saints -6, O/U: 52)

With the Redskins coming off of a bye week, they’re staring at a long haul until the end of the season, with 13 straight weeks of football until playoffs.  During that week off they had time to prepare for a tough road game against a high powered offense that gets one of the other half of their running back duo, Mark Ingram.

Ingram is back to give the Saints a much needed boost in the running game, one that Kamara made a valiant effort to be effective in with over 600 yards from scrimmage in the first 4 games, gaining steam in the last few weeks on the ground.  Speaking of the ground game, Adrian Peterson has been a bit of a savior for the Redskins once Darrius Guice, avoiding having to soley rely on Thompson who is used heavily in the passing game.  Peterson out to prove to everyone who passed on his services, that a back over 30 can still produce, averaging 4.21 yards per carry with 3 scores, not to mention he has 5 catches for 100 yards!

Drew Brees will also have some motivation for a big game tonight, 500 career touchdown passes could be the milestone he passes tonight.

Given that Josh Doctson is inactive look for the Redskins to have trouble in the passing game and then keeping up with the Saints.  Take the Saints to cover and win in the over, Saints 35-24.

#beatyourbookie