NFL Week 5: Sunday Games Picks, Predictions & Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium, 1:00 PM (Bengals -3, O/U: 46.5)

The Cardinals have looked choppy at times through games, mostly in the first half but have seemingly come out in the second half and putting things together on offense. The Bengals are going to be without Green and Ross on the outside and thus basically have no weapons. Both teams have bad offensive lines but Murray has the ability to move out of the pocket and still has Kirk and Fitzgerald to throw to. Take the Cardinals to cover and win outright, in the under, Cardinals 24-17.

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans, NRG Stadium, 1:00 PM (Texans -4, O/U: 49.5)

No one can explain why the Falcons aren’t performing well with the personnel they have. Quinn seems to be on the hotseat given the weak start by the club. Their redzone figures are horrendous and their running game is non-existent which is why Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in all 4 games. The Falcons have also committed the most penalties in the league. The Texans are coming off a bad loss to a backup quarterback at home. The Texans couldn’t move the ball and Watson was sacked 6 times which brings the season total to 18 times sacked in 4 games. Watson has taken care of the ball while completing 65% of his passes with 6 TD’s and 1 pick. The defense has been pretty good, ranking 10th in least points allowed while also forcing 8 fumbles, recovering 8 fumbles and snagging 13 sacks. Take the Texans to cover in the win and in the over, 28-23.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Heinz Field, 1:00 PM (Steelers +3, O/U: 43.5)

The Ravens are coming off of 2 losses where Jackson has looked more human. He’s thrown for 596 yards for 7 TD’s and zero picks against the Dolphins and Cardinals but in the last 2 games against the Chiefs and Browns (better defenses) he’s thrown for 517 yards, 3 TD’s and 2 picks. They are still scoring (top ranked offense) but are allowing big time yardage on defense (bottom 3rd in the league on defese). The Steelers have been bottom 3rd in the league on offense as it’s evident that missing Ben, Bell and Brown have significantly hurt. Conner woke up a bit against the Bengals however it didn’t blow anyone away. The defense has kept the Steelers in 2 of 3 of their losses even though they’ve even been middle of the road compared to the rest of the league. Take the Ravens to cover in the over, Ravens 28-17.

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans, Nissan Stadium, 1:00 PM (Titans -3.5, O/U: 39.5)

The Bills Defense has really stepped up this season. They’re 5th in the league in least points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. They’re passing has been middle of the road but the rushing duo of Gore and Singletary has been top 5 in most rushing categories. Allen has been shacky to start the season, with only having 3 TD’s against 6 picks. The Titans are an up and down team offensively, very inconsistent. The one consistent that has been very evident is that Mariota has thrown for 7 TD’s and zero picks. The offense has been pretty efficient, ranking 25 in yards but 13 in points scored. The defense is also ranked in the top half of the league. The one thing the Bills can do is make offenses make mistakes or stall their drives. Take the Bills to win outright and cover in the under, Bills 21-17.

Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, 1:00 PM (Raiders +6, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Bears to win but the Raiders cover in the under, Bears 20-17.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 1:00 PM (Panthers -3, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Jaguars to cover in the win in the over, Jags 24-21.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants, MetLife Stadium, 1:00 PM (Giants +6, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Vikings to win but the Giants to cover in the over, Vikings 27-24.

New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins, FedEx Field, 1:00 PM (Redskins +16, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Patriots to cover in the over, Patriots 31-13.

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles, Lincoln Financial Field, 1:00 PM (Eagles -14, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-9.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 1:00 PM (Saints -3, O/U: 47.5)

Take the Saints to cover in the under, Saints 27-20.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers, StubHub Center, 4:05 PM (Chargers -5.5, O/U: 44.5)

Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 31-24.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, 4:25 PM (Cowboys -3.5, O/U: 46.5)

Take the Packers to cover in the win, in the over, Packers 27-24.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs, Arrowhead Stadium, 8:20 PM, NBC (Chiefs -10.5, O/U: 55.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 35-23.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5:

  • Arizona at Cincinnati – Arizona (+3)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-3)
  • Minnesota at NY Giants – Minnesota (-4.5)
  • Chicago at Oakland – Chicago (-4.5)
  • Green Bay at Dallas – Green Bay (+3.5)

Week 3: Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins, FedEx Field, 8:15 PM, ESPN (Redskins +5.5, O/U: 41.5)

The Bears should scare you.  Their defense surely should scare you because they’re pretty good but this offense should scare you as in anemic, hard to watch, lacking.  Trubisky has yet to throw a touchdown but has a pick.  He’s only accumulated 348 passing yards and averaging only 4.8 yards per attempt while only completing just 58% of his passes.  That means he’s relegated to dink and dunk passes and still can’t get the offense going.  The rushing game hasn’t been there either with only amassing 118 yards on 36 carries for 3.2 yards per rush between 3 backs.  The Redskins have an 0-2 record but given the 2 divisional juggernauts (Eagles week 1, Cowboys week 2), and how they weren’t necessarily blown out of either game, things aren’t looking too bad after losing Alex Smith late last year.  Keenum’s numbers look like his 1 really good year with the Vikings, completing 69% of his passes for 601 yards, 5 TD’s and no picks.  Terry McLaurin has been the early favorite target as he has 10 catches fro 187 yards and 2 TD’s.  The rushing game has yet to come through as Guice is back to being injured after week 1 and AP couldn’t get going last week either after being marked as a healthy scratch week 1.  Given the Redskins defense ranking 30th in points and yards allowed, this one might get ugly but the Bears might be on the losing side of this one when the clock hits 0 because of their inept offense.  Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-17.

NFL Week 2: Sunday Game Predictions & Picks

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens, M&T Bank Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Ravens -12.5, O/U: 46.5)

The Cardinals are on the road so don’t expect any comeback miracles like last week. They played 3 quarters of bad football and pulled it together at home to tie the Lions. The Ravens brought it last week versus the Dolphins with Lamar Jackson going off with rookie receiver Marquise Brown. Expect the Ravens to do a similar thing to a similarly bad team although not on a similar level. Take the Ravens to cover in the win and in the over, Ravens 34-20.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants, MetLife Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Giants +2.5, O/U: 44.5)

The Bills had a slow opening week 1 but bounced back to win against the Jets while also producing 6 20 yards or more plays. The Giants got drubbed by the Cowboys and now have their #1 receiver, Sterling Shepard in concussion protocol. The Giants also only went 2 for 11 on 3rd downs and the Bills defense is stingy, only allowing 3.4 yards per play, the best out of all of the teams in week 1. Take the Bills to cover in the win, in the under, Bills 24-16.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins, FedEx Field, 1:00 PM, FOX (Redskins +5, O/U: 47.5)

Dallas looked really good in the opening week against the Giants. Cobb, scored in his debut with the team and Zeke also found the endzone after ending his contract disputes. The Redskins got up big early on the Eagles but allowed them to comeback and win the game, nearly covering the 10 point spread until Keenum lead a very late TD drive with 12 seconds left that was meaningless other than to the people who bet the Eagles to cover. Take the Cowboys to win and cover a more manageable spread in the over, Cowboys 31-20.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, Nissan Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Titans -3.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Colts pushed the Chargers to OT last week and Brissett looked pretty good (21/27, 190, 2TD’s). Mack also stepped up with 174 yards and a score on 25 carries. The Titans blew up everyone’s expectations of what the Browns hyped themselves up to be. Mariota was efficient and tossed 3 scores in the absolute beating of the Browns. Push the upset alert in this one. Take the Colts to cover and win in the over, Colts 24-21.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans, NRG Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Texans -8, O/U: 42.5)

Gardner Minshew looked good filling in for the injured Foles and was really efficient (22/25, 275, 2 TD/1 INT) with his top receiver being DJ Chark. The Texans had an amazing game with the Saints last Monday night and nearly pulled it off with 2 huge 4th quarter throws from Watson, going 75 yards in 37 seconds, with less than 2 minutes to go. JJ Watt didn’t record a recordable stat other than a game played number but still made big impacts on the game with his pressure on Brees. Expect him to have his first tackle and sack of the year early in this one. Speaking of sacks, the Texans gave up 6 on Watson last week, which must improve if they want their young star QB healthy for 16 games. Take the Texans cover in the win and in the over, Texans 28-16.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions, Ford Field, 1:00 PM, CBS (Lions +1.5, O/U: 47.5)

Ekeler stepped into the roll as the feature back much like when he did when Gordon had injuries and looked really good (154 scrimmage yards). Ekeler had 3 scores with one of them being the game winning score in OT against the Colts. The defense was worrisome but had standouts individually. Stafford threw for 385 yards and 3 scores against the Cardinals but the team couldn’t hold on to the 18 point lead on the road and eventually tied the Cardinals. TJ Hockenson had 6 catches for 131 yards and a TD in his debut, making him the new record holder for receiving yards by a rookie TE. I know the Chargers are much better on the road than at home however they are still missing Derwin James and now will be without top TE Hunter Henry for 4-6 weeks. Take the Lions to win and cover in the over, Lions 27-24.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 1:00 PM, FOX (Packers -2.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Vikings scored all of their points off of short field turnovers by the Falcons last week which put that game out of reach early. Kirk Cousins was only 8/10 for 98 yards and a TD while Dalvin Cook had 21 carries for 111 yards and 2 scores. They travel to Green Bay where the Packers rarely turn the ball over and has been consistently one of the toughest places to play in the NFL for opponents. The Packers new look offense did not get off to the great start like many anticipated it would. They were only 2 of 12 on 3rd downs but scored the only TD of the game which proved huge. With 3 extra days of prep for the Packers, expect them to have sured up their flaws and mistakes to take one at home against a division rival. Take the Packers to win and cover in the over, Packers 27-24.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Dolphins +18, O/U: 48.5)

We have our first college football line of the year with this one. Not much to say for this matchup other than the Patriots are a finally tuned machine with tremendous coaching. Antonio Brown will get his first looks in the offense with a little over a week to prepare and study the playbook. Tom Brady looked as dangerous as ever throwing nearly 350 yards and 3 TD’s and spread the ball to 7 different receivers, 3 of which had at least 5 catches. The Dolphins looked absolutely atrocious last week. They deserve this line as they were stopped on the ground and forced through the air, where they completed less than 50% of their passes. The Patriots will not think twice about running up the score on a division rival. Take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 34-10.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Bengals Pick’em, O/U: 46.5)

The 49ers kept the mystery around Garapolo going another week as he tried to get his feet wet after missing all of 2018. He looked as expected in the opener but the defense looked great (not hard to do when Winston throws directly to your cornerbacks). The 49ers secondary outpaced ALL of 2018’s 2 picks with 3 and 2 of them being returned for TD’s. Richard Sherman had his first INT in over a year after having none last year and returned it to the house. 30 carries were spread out over 3 backs with Coleman spraining his ankle (out for week 2). AJ Green is still out for the Bengals as they gave the Seahawks fits in their own house, nearly pulling off the upset win. Dalton threw for over 400 yards as the run game was basically a non factor. John Ross went off with 7 cathces for 158 yards and 2 TD’s. I think the 49ers will eventually get better once Jimmy G gets some more games under his belt. Take the Bengals to win the pick’em in the over, Bengals 28-21.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Heinz Field, 1:00 PM, FOX (Steelers -3.5, O/U: 47.5)

The Seahawks squeaked out a win at home, surprisingly having trouble with Andy Dalton even without AJ Green. The offense looked mediocre as the rushing game was fairly silent most of the game as well. Wilson was kept to less than 200 yards but I will give them the benefit of the doubt as rain was a factor in hindering the game. The Steelers looked horrendous on the road with the Patriots even though that is the M.O. on Brady versus the Steelers (beating the Steelers in the last 9 meetings). The line couldn’t help get James Conner going on his 10 carries (only 21 yards). Big Ben competed less than 50% of his passes and threw a pick. Going 3 for 12 on 3rd downs never helps. The Steelers do bounce back from bad losses like last week and usually play buttoned up the next week. Seattle has to cross the country to play what would be a morning game on the west coast. Take the Steelers to win in the under, Steelers 21-17.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders, Oakland Coliseum, 4:05 PM, CBS (Raiders +7, O/U: 53.5)

The Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill in last weeks game for 4-6 weeks with a dislocated clavicle joint. His absence meant nothing as Sammy Watkins filled in nicely with 9 catches for 198 yards and 3 scores. LeSean McCoy torched the defense with 81 yards on 10 carries so you should expect him to get the feature work until he slows. The Defense however allowed 347 yards to a rookie quarterback last week. The Raiders offensive line looked stellar, not allowing a sack on Derek Carr against a stingy/tough Broncos defense, which allowed Carr to gel with new favorite target Tyrell Williams (6 catches, 105 yards and 1 TD). Josh Jacobs looked as good as advertised (23 carries, 85 yards and 2 TD’s). The defense even got in on the party with 3 sacks and a forced fumble. I was shocked by this line as Vegas thinks the Chiefs would be a 13 point favorite at home versus the Raiders. Take the Chiefs to win but the Raiders to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-27.

Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos, Broncos Stadium at Mile High, 4:25 PM, FOX (Broncos +1.5, O/U: 40.5)

The Bears looked about as bad on offense as you could look in the opening week. Many penalties, Trubisky completing less than 50% of his passes, run game non-existent, 3 for 15 on third down. This is the second year between coach and QB so you would’ve thought it would’ve looked better by now. The defense held up its end of the bargain, keeping Rodgers out of the endzone most of the night. The Broncos also looked miserable in the opening week. After supposedly finding a decent QB to run this team in Flacco, he looked mediocre going 21/31, 268 yards and a TD. They probably should’ve ran more since the running back tandem of Freeman and Lindsay combined for 99 yards on 21 carries. Sutton and Sanders were the only standouts having 7 grabs for 120 yards & 5 grabs for 85 yards and a score, respectively. Take the Bears to cover with a win in the under, Bears 20-17.

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, 4:25 PM, FOX (Rams -2, O/U: 52.5)

The Saints had a heckuva shootout showdown in the Dome last week against he Texans even with being hosed by the refs twice, again, in a big game. Brees had 370 yards, 2 scores and a pick while Kamara picked up where he left off having 97 yards on 13 carries. The nice complimentary play came from Latavious Murray, who broke off a 30 yard touchdown run. Ted Ginn (7 catches on 7 targets for 101 yards) and Michael Thomas (10 catches for 123 yards) both had big days. The defense combined for 6 sacks against a tough Watson. The only thing working against the Saints is going on the road to an outdoor stadium, to which they play as a different team all together. The Rams were back in form on the road in Carolina mixing the passing and run games well. No real standouts other than Gurley’s 97 yards on 14 carries and Malcolm Browns 2 TD runs. The defense racked up 3 sacks, a pick and 2 forced fumbles. Take the Rams at home to win and cover in the over, Rams 34-31.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 8:20 PM, NBC (Falcons +1.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Eagles were able to overcome a 17 point deficit to the Redskins at home by pulling out to a 12 point lead late in the 4th quarter before allowing the Redskins to score a touchdown with 12 seconds left. Wentz eventually started to connect for big plays to DeSean Jackson starting late in the 2nd quarter with a 51 yard TD bomb and later with a 53 yard TD bomb, bringing Eagles fans to their feet for the days of old with D-Jax. Wentz finished 28/39 for 313 yards and 3 scores while Jackson finished with 8 catches for 154 yards and 2 scores. The running game saw shares of carries equally to Sproles, Howard and Sanders (9-47, 6-44, 11-25), whit Sanders having the longest rush of the day (19 yards). The Falcons turned the ball over way too much in their matchup against the Vikings in Minnesota. They gave the Vikings 4 touchdowns off of those turnovers and all of them on short fields. They were down 21-0 at the half because of those mistakes. Ryan’s stats look efficient going 33/46 for 304 yards and 2 scores but those 2 picks that he has put them in bad spots. Going down early, eliminated the need for a balanced run attack and therefore 9 different receivers were used to try and make a comeback. 2 late TD’s in the 4th quarter was all they could muster. Take the Eagles to cover in the win in the over, Eagles 31-24.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • Buffalo at NY Giants – Buffalo (-2)
  • Seattle at Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh (-3.5)
  • Chicago at Denver – Denver (+2.5)
  • New Orleans at LA Rams – LA Rams (-2.5)
  • Philadelphia at Atlanta – Atlanta (+2)

2019 NFL Week 1: Sunday Games

The first full Sunday of games is upon us! We opened off with a sweet but nail biting cover with the Packers, lets continue that momentum in probably the hardest weeks to bet on NFL football.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings, U.S. Bank Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Vikings -3.5, O/U: 47)

Devonta Freeman is not as strong of a feature back as he once was years ago. Hampered by injuries, the Falcons had to go out and get him some insurance/backup to help with the load, in Ito Smith. They are stocked full at receiver power though with Jones, Ridley and Sanu. It’ll be tough to cover all 3 guys effectively. For the Vikings, Thielen had the NFL’s 4th most receptions last year with 113 while Diggs had a career high 102 catches. With Cook back 100%, the offense is at full capacity with weapons at Cousin’s disposal to match their strong defense. Take the Vikings to cover in the under, Vikings 24-20.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Dolphins +7, O/U: 40)

The Ravens are all in on revamping their offense and signed Ingram to lead their backfield as they’ve been searching to rediscover a talented back. With Jackson and Ingram’s running abilities, look for many RPO’s and read options to counter Jackson arm but don’t expect to see 300+ through the air as they lack heavily at receiver and don’t really have a true #1 guy there. The Dolphins saw how their Florida counterparts (Buccs) had successes with Fitzmagic however, they too are without a decent receiving corps and lack a true #1 guy on the outside. Having Drake carry the ball mixed with Balage helps but this one will probably be a snoozer. Take the Ravens to win but the Dolphins to cover in the under, Ravens 20-14.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets, MetLife Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Jets -2.5, O/U: 41)

Allen showed flashes of his potential all season last year and it was shocking given his supporting cast being below average. Don’t believe me? Don’t watch many Bills games? Watchin his game against the Viking last year. After offloading Shady McCoy, they’re looking to the impressive in camp and preseason rookie, Singletary, to take most of the workload along with Gore mentoring him up. Allen still doesn’t have anything to write home about in the receiving corps but he’ll make it work. The Jets went out and snatched up Bell after his drama with the Steelers last year where he sat out the whole year seeking a new contract. He will take some pressure off of young Darnold as there wasn’t much of a running game for him to rely on last year in his rookie season. They have some ok receivers but are thin on talent there. Take the Bills to cover in the over, Bills 27-18.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TIAA Bank Field, 1:00 PM, CBS (Jags +3.5, O/U: 50.5)

Losing Hunt didn’t seem to slow this offense as other guys stepped up and filled the roll nicely. Don’t get me wrong, he’s dynamic and offered you a lot of options when using him, but Williams is capable to doing similar things. Mahomes stunned in his first year starting (2nd year in the league) with 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring with 35.3 points per game (7 touchdowns) which is unbelievable! Reid had Shady McCoy signed to give another weapon to use in the backfield as he can be very shifty and elusive. Adding the Honey Badger for their secondary was a nice upgrade to their air defense. The Jags moved on from Bortles and signed Foles who had been great for the Eagles and even led them to a Super Bowl victory over the Patriots a few seasons ago. The last time he left the Eagles, he didn’t fair to well so we’ll see if he can keep his play up still having a decent supporting cast around him. They also added Conley from the Chiefs to help the receiving corps with the loss of Robinson to the Bears. Fournette still hasa bunch to prove since he hasn’t played to his potential and is reported to have worked hard this off season to improve his game and personal life. I can’t believe this game is only at 3.5 points. Take the Chiefs to win in the over, Chiefs 35-20.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Panthers +1.5, O/U: 49.5)

Goff resigned quietly to match the output he’s had the last few seasons under McVay (last year: 4,688 yards with 32 TD’s). Gurley, Woods, Cooks and Kupp are all healthy and they are all explosive. The offense especially suffered without Kupp. They added some veteran defensive pieces in Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle. Cam had shoulder surgery in the offseason, then had a scare with an ankle injury in the pre season but his supporting cast stays the same (CMC, Moore, Samuel, Olsen). Defense moves to a 3-4 so there could be a learning curve yet with that going into the season. Take the Rams to cover in the under, Rams 24-20.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, FirstEnergy Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Browns -5.5, O/U: 45)

Mariotta still hasn’t started 16 games in a season which is problematic when talking about your franchise guy.  After a strong 2016, he’s had a rough go with a TD/INT ratio of 1/1 and barely cracks 3,000 when he does play most of the season. The Titans defense proved tough under new head coach Vrabel and will continue that trend this year.  The Browns added OBJ to the opposite side of the offense alongside former LSU teammate Landry.  They also will be led by Nick Chubb in the backfield with newly signed Hunt sitting 8 weeks on suspension from his time with the Chiefs.  Baker had a solid rookie season with a 2/1 TD/INT ratio, led the Browns to a handful of unforeseen wins given their 1-31 record the previous 2 seasons and even had the pull to get his OC and coach fired early in the season.  Take the Browns to cover in the under, Browns 27-13.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles, Lincoln Financial Field, 1:00 PM, FOX (Eagles -10, O/U: 44.5)

The Redskins will have Guice back after being lost all of last year with a knee injury.  AP was figured to be shuffled in with Guice and Thompson but as of Sunday morning, AP may be deactivated and the Skins will only suit 2 backs.  They are very young at receiver and have a very average quarterback in Keenam.  The Eagles will have Wentz back 100% and doubled down on his health by allowing Foles to fly the coup to the Jags to start there.  Desean Jackson is back in town and looking to continue what he does best in a high powered offense, take the tops off defenses.  Eagles also added depth in their backfield by signing Howard from the Bears and drafting Sanders from PSU with Sproles coming back for what seems to be his last season.  We have our first HUGE line on the young season.  Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 28-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks, CenturyLink Field, 4:05 PM, CBS (Seahawks -9.5, O/U: 44.5)

The Bengals are without star receiver Green for at least this week and maybe the next 2 which leaves them shorthanded in their air attack.  Mixon looked great in his rookie season with 1,100 yards and 8 TD’s even with injuries to their top offensive guys like Dalton and Eifert who were out for large chunks of the season.  Dalton and Eifert are back at 100% however.  The Seahawks were in desperate need of a turnaround seeing their defense slip from Legion of Boom to middle of the road.  They went out and traded for Clowney to add to the front/pass rush as Wagner still leads them.  Wilson has been consistent over his career and is finding himself with a running game that he can rely on again.  Take the Seahawks to cover in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers, StubHub Center, 4:05 PM, CBS (Chargers -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Luck’s retirement caught everyone off guard.  Luckily they had traded for Brissett a few years ago when Luck had nagging, reoccurring injuries that made him miss a bunch of games.  When Brissett played, he played fairly well.  In 2017, he played most of the year in Luck’s absence and piled up over 3,000 yards and had a 2/1 TD/INT ratio.  With Mack in his second season in the backfield, the addition of Funchess to the receiving corps and Ebron building on a career year last year (750 yards and 13 TD’s), look for the Colts to not miss much of a beat over Luck’s departure.  The Chargers however are missing key players in key roles.  No Gordon due to a holdout, no Williams who singed with the Raiders and no James on the defensive side of the ball with an injury.  Mix that with no Gates for the first time in 15 years and Rivers has an uphill climb to start the season.  Take the Colts to win in the over, Colts 24-21.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals, University of Phoenix Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Cards +3, O/U: 46.5)

The Lions had a rough first year under Patricia during his rookie campaign as head coach.  New additions will help the Lions get back on track with Flowers on the defensive side and Amendola on the offensive side.  Johnson will once again lead the backfield as he was one of the few bright spots on this offense last year during his rookie season as he averaged a massive 5.4 yards per carry.  Stafford will still have Golladay and Jones after Kearse went down with a potential career ending leg injury in the pre season.  The Cardinals drafted quarterbacks in back to back years in the first round.  As they selected the 5’10” Murray, they eventually then traded Rosen to the Dolphins.  Murray didn’t look fantastic in the pre season but with a great offensive mind like rookie head coach Kingsbury, he could flourish.  Johnson needs to get back to his 2016 self soon as he’s been ineffective the last few seasons though not all his fault as the offensive line hasn’t done it’s job either.  Adding Terrell Suggs on the defensive side of the ball is a great pass rushing pairing with Chandler Jones.  Take the Lions to win in the under, Lions 24-17.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Cowboys -7, O/U: 45.5)

The Giants are trying to fool everyone here.  Trading away start receiver OBJ to solely put the offense on Barkley given his 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in his spectacular rookie season.  The Giants are thin at receiver and now are relying on Sheppard as their #1 guy with Engram continuing to build on his successes at TE.  Question is, how long does Manning last before the impressive rookie Jones comes in?  The Cowboys spent the entire offseason talking about money.  With Zeke holding out and feuding with Owner Jerry Jones up until late last week, Zeke hasn’t been with the team all pre season.  Cowboys are assuring us that he is game ready.  Dak stayed quiet and poised that they will have a great year and it is promising with Cooper having a tremendous impact on the offense last year and Gallop looking great his rookie year along with the surprising emergence of Vander Esche in the middle of their defense, 2019 is looking up for the Boys.  Take the Cowboys to win in the over, Cowboys 31-20.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Raymond James Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Buccs -1, O/U: 51)

Jimmy G is back 100% from his season ending knee injury and really nothing much has changed on his offense to improve the squad he left.  He looked good for the 9ers in 2017 ending the season going 5-0 after being traded but only lasted 3 games last year.  Receiving corps is still thin, there’s not really a #1 feature back behind Jimmy G and the defense struggled at times.  The Buccs ring Arians out of retirement as this could be Winston’s last chance to prove himself before his out as starter.  He loses Desean Jackson on the outside but still has Evans, Godwin and OJ Howard to throw to.  Barber and Jones will split the backfield but neither have looked like the feature back the team needs.  Take the Buccs to win in the under, Buccs 24-20.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots, Gillette Stadium, 8:20 PM, NBC (Patriots -5.5, O/U: 49.5)

Brown and Bell both gone, 2 explosive players.  Enter in Conner (973yards and 12 TD’s rushing) who proved he could give the Steelers just as good a chance to win games as Bell with less gruff and the emergence of JuJu (111 catches and 7 TD’s in 2018) and James Washington on the outside and it’s as if the Steelers really won’t seem to miss a beat and just offloaded a bunch of drama.  Steelers also have been rebuilding their defense through the draft with TJ Watt a few years ago and now Devin Bush Jr just this season.  Brady loses Gronk and will be without rookie standout Harry to kickoff the season against the Steelers in which he is a perfect 8-0 at Gillette against them.  Brady will always be a quarterback that makes hero’s out of guys you’ve never heard of but this year will be different with Josh Gordon being back, Edelman, Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas and now Antonio Brown in the receiving corps.  A major bright spot last year was Michel becoming the feature back as a rookie and looks to have that locked up for as long as he plays well.  The only thing against the Patriots at home is that they’re known to start seasons a little slow, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Take the Steelers to cover in the loss, in the over, Patriots 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • LA Rams at Carolina – LA Rams (-1.5)
  • Atlanta at Minnesota – Atlanta (+4)
  • Indianapolis at LA Chargers – Indianapolis (+6.5)
  • Pittsburgh at New England – Pittsburgh (+6)
  • Houston at New Orleans – Houston (+7)

Week 13: Monday Night Football

Washington @ Philadelphia, 8:20p, ESPN (Eagles -6, O/U: 45)

In Colt Mccoy’s first start of the season, replacing the injured Alex Smith, he kept the Redskins in the Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys despite not having much of a supporting cast from the backfield and throwing 3 interceptions. Considering the lack of weapons to throw to, he managed to complete 63% of his passes with 2 touchdowns all while having to rely mostly on his tight ends for the bulk of the targets. McCoy isn’t known for having a deep ball so having Davis and Reed as his crutch is pretty helpful. Peterson has his ups and downs and last week was a tough matchup for the old back as the youngblood defenders of the Cowboys didn’t give him anything to work with. He’ll need to take the ball outside of the Eagles box to take advantage of a young and inexperienced secondary to get those chunk yards we’re used to seeing from him over the last decade.

The Eagles might’ve found a diamond in the rough with rookie running back Josh Adams who had a great performance (22 rushes for 84 yards and 1 TD). They’ve been looking for a consistent back to pair with Wentz to take some of the workload off of his shoulders. He’s proved that he can win and win big games but he still doesn’t look like last year’s Wentz. He’s only had 4 of his 9 games end with over 300 yards passing and still hasn’t clicked with newcomer Golden Tate. Despite this he still has a TD/INT ratio of nearly 3:1 (16/6). With Darren Sproles set to make a return along with Michael Bennett, has last week’s close call win walken them up for the tough stretch of games to close out the season and maybe make the playoffs(Redskins, Cowboys, Rams, Texans, Redskins)?

Take the Eagles to cover in the over, Eagles 27-20.

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Starting the week with a win on Thursday is something I’ve done quite a bit this year.  Getting that first win sets the tone for my picks for the rest of the week.  It’s not that I’ll be a little more risky with my picks after a Thursday win or more cautious if I had lost but the confidence is stronger and there’s less second guessing.  I’m on my road to magical numbers and I haven’t lost sight of the overall goal (56%-60%) winners.

I told you the Steelers are just a different team at home, however I didn’t expect the cover win by 23!  Mariota didn’t look too comfortale early and that ruined whatever confidence he had coming into the ketchup bottle.  If you liked that pick and took it, you’re going to love these.  On to Sunday’s games:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)

The Bears are coming off a shocking loss against the Packers.  Mitch-a-palooza had to strap up his work belt extra tight given that his rushing game was non-existant.  Howard had 15 carries for 54 yards (3.6 yards per carry) but one rush snapped off for 25 which puts his other 14 carries at just over 2 yards per carry.  Bears can’t put that much on Trubisky’s shoulders and expect to win.  The Lions had trouble putting the Browns away last week.  Being tied with the Browns heading into the 4th quarter at home, has me nervous about them along with both teams record against the spread (5-4) and the Lions away ATS record (3-1) and the Bears home ATS record (4-1).  Take the Lions to cover in the over, 27-20.  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7.5, O/U: 37)

The Browns come into this game with one of the lowest scoring offenses (15.9) in the league while facing one of the best defenses who has allowed the least amount of points to it’s opponents (14.9).   The Browns held it together for three strong quarters agains the Lions in Detroit last week which tells me that they still repect their coach and will play hard, even being winless.  The Jaguars pulled out an OT win against the Chargers who are a very strong road team.  Bortles slipped into his old was with low completion percentage and more picks than TD’s but were able to steal a win.  Take the Jaguars to cover in the under, 24-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers +2, O/U: 38)

The Packers picked up a crucial win against the Bears last week, and right when I wrote off Hundley.  Unfortunately for the Packers, Montgomery and Jones are both likely to miss this game meaning Jamaal Williams will have to fill in, which he did very successfully last week.  Baltimore had a bye week but the week before, they nearly knocked off the Titans in their own house.  This coming from a team that just seems very bland and not really excitting, especially on the road.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2, O/U: 37.5)

In a league where your quarterback is the most valuable player on your team (and highest paid player), it’s inheriantly important that they stay healthy.  With Palmer and Watson out, it becomes a battle between Stanton and Savage.  Get ready for 50% completions and a bunch of running.  These kinds of games make picking a winner very hard.  You litterally have to go through the rosters and base it off of the position matchup and then if you’re still baffled, go to coaching.  Here, I like the coaching and the offense of the Cardinals so take them to cover in the under, 17-13.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 45.5)

This is an interesting matchup, one to watch.  Both teams are 7-2, 6-3 ATS, at the top of their divisions, and have exceeded their pre-season expectations from day one.  The Vikings had doneit with Sam Bradford in the first game but with Case Keenum ever since, which is impressive.  The Rams success started with the change at head coach which seemed to have sparked Jared Goff.  Both defenses are solid but expect this to be more of a shootout.  Again, we have to matchup the QB’s and start spelling out who’s better where.  The Rams just have a stronger team and will cover in the over, 31-27.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 51.5)

Nothing to surprise you with here about the Saints.  They have returned to their offensive prowess but also added some solid running to their game.  Drew Brees isn’t throwing as many passes but still is effective while he has Ingram and Kamra behind him enjoying great seasons especially since Ap has left town.  The Redskins followed up their huge win in Seattle by hanging along another of the leagues better teams, the Vikings but ultimately losing.  The Redskins have a commitee backfield which is tough to get consistency running the ball.  Take the Saints to cover in the under, 31-17.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +10.5, O/U:+45.5)

So this is where the Giants are at, they lost to the (at the time) winless 49ers.  Eli kept it together and didn’t throw a pick but his defense (which is supposed to be their bright spot), broke down badly.  Run game, pass game, the 49ers just had their way with the Giants defense.  The Chiefs had to deal with Zeke who whittled their defense down for 27 carries.  Andy Reid off of bye weeks is one of if not the best at coming away with a win.  Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +1, O/U: 42)

The matchup that was supposed to happen week one is finally on 11 weeks later.  Given the way they both have played this year, I wouldn’t be mad if they just took another bye week.  They both have disappointing offenses and to demonstrate how this game with go, grease your hand up with butter and try to turn a door nob.  Take the Buccs to cover in the under, 17-14.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 41)

The Bills are turning to their rookie quarterback (seems to be a growing trend lately), marking his first start and road game seeing action.  McCoy hasn’t been his normal self.  The Chargers have been pressing opponents lately, at home and on the road (mostly on the road).  The Chargers nearly stole one in Jacsonville last week.  This week the Chargers take over the rookie with their dangerous pass rush and to cover in the under, Chargers 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -2.5, O/U: 38)

The Bengals just haven’t looked right all year.  The frustrations seems to boil a few weeks ago when Green was throwing haymakers in the first half.  Dalton looked better this week but with no running game, they can’t setup defenses for the pass.  The Broncos are another example of why quarterbacks are important to your team.  Not just important, vital!  Siemianhasn’t worked since last year and to be so desperate to bring back Osweiller, says a lot about how they feel about their QB situation.  I feel like the Bronceos defense won’t allow another loss at home.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 16-10.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (MC), 4:25p (Raiders +7.5, O/U: 54.5)

Mexico City will see their first NFL game in live action and it’s two well respected and talented teams.  I said this earlier and actually called it in my first game this year, I like the Patriots but 7 or more points are reserved for team like the Browns, Giants, Colts and maybe even the 49ers.  Neutral field games for the Patriots (basically all of their super bowls), have mostly all been close but it is Tom Brady we’re talking about.  The Raiders  had a slip up in the beginning with Carr missing some games but are back on track with a couple of wins strunge together.  Big bets are on the Pats and this being a neutral field, makes it that much tougher.  Take the Raiders to cover but loss in the under, Pats 24-21.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30p (Cowboys +6, O/U: 48)

The Eagles come into this one as one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL.  Carson Wentz and his new additions have been lights out and the defense has been quite impressive as well, but offense always gets the head lines.  The Eagles have shown consistency week in and week out and will continue to do so this week.  The Cowboys have been on the Zeke roller coaster every week with news he’d be either in or out of the headlines.  Well, Zeke is finally going to serve those 6 weeks and the ‘Boys will be down Sean Lee as well, whose the go to guy or the quarterback of the defense.  This all coming as the season takes a turn to the finish line.   Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 had an amazing start.  Four weeks in, he was 15-5 (75% winners) but have calmed to a very respectable 30-20 (60%) but he is still picking gem weeks.  He really likes Chiacago becasue he’s been burnt by the Lions before.  Some advice, when I agree with betting on a team with Colin, my record is 21-10 (68% winners).  This week, we’ll call them locks, Packers and Eagles.  I actually would bet HEAVY on the Eagles if you get them anywhere near his line but even at 7 or less really.  Here are his picks/lines from Friday:

  • Detroit at Chicago – Chicago (+3)
  • Cincinnati at Denver – Denver (-2.5)
  • Tampa Bay at Miami – Tampa Bay (+3)
  • Baltimore at Green Bay – Green Bay (+2)
  • Philadelphia at Dallas – Philadelphia (-3.5)

 

 

Week 10: Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Thursday nights game was close and I nearly hit on the score exactly.  We knew that the game was going to score in the under.  Both defenses are pretty good with the Seahawks being the obvious better team defensively.  Stanton came out as a shocker by besting Wilson in yards but that’ll happen when you throw it 47 times (even though he only completed 24 of them).  I was surprised that the bruiser of a back, AP, was only held to 29 yards but still had 21 carries.  That number just shocks me, I mean, 1.4 yards per carry is what he left the game with.  I’m astounded by that.  I guess you can only bet he’ll have a great game every other week.  Nonetheless, we ended up pushing another game, bringing the total on the year to 6 pushes.  Hopefully the rest of the week doesn’t hinge on whether we could’ve had a good week with this game being a cover or not.  With that said, here’s Sunday’s games:

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills +3, O/U: 48)

The Saints look to continue their high flying offense on the road but we all know that usually isn’t a guarantee.  The Bills look to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets last week.  Some feel as though the Bills will come out swinging because of that, but the Saints have a half presentable defense this year.  Take the Saints in the under, 27-20.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears -4.5, O/U: 37.5)

Brett Hundley hasn’t looked like the quarterback that the Packers thought they drafted.  If he’s the guy that they thought would one day be in line to succeed Rodgers, they’re in trouble.  Colin Kaepernick would’ve been the more sensible solution, even a week after seeing Hundley’s first start.  The Bears have turned to Mitch-a-polooza in Chicago where he’s looked pretty good for being a guy who played football at North Carolina.  Their defense is coming around too.  Take the Bears to cover in the under, 21-13.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -10.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Lions still seemed to be firing on all cylinders lately.  They actually showed flashes of a running game.  Stafford has always been great and he’ll continue that.  For the Browns…..well……it’s the Browns.  Take the Lions in the under, 31-10.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +10, O/U: 45)

The Steelers tend to play Jekyll and Hyde when playing at home and on the road (worse on the road).  Their defense has been the surprise of the team this year.  They went into Detroit 2 weeks ago and came away the shocking victors.  The Colts have been, well, underwhelming, and that’s not because they’ve screwed me over in 4 of the 5 games I took them in.  They have a highly touted former Patriots backup (which seems to be a thing lately), but without a new offensive line, he could end up like Andrew Luck, who’s prognoses has gone from, back in a few weeks to career ending injury.  Take the Steelers to cover in the over, 31-17. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -5, O/U: 41)

This should be a really good matchup.  The Chargers have been noticeably better on the road than at home and actually have looked more comfortable.  They started 0-4 with 3 of those games at home, 3-1 in their last 4 (2-1 on the road).  Fournette is back this week after his one game team levied suspension.  Despite missing last week, he’s 6th in rushing.  If the Chargers can slow down Fournette, they’ll have a real shot at beating a team that has been a real surprise in the league this year.  This could be a real good chance at another push for me but I think that the Chargers could take this one.  Take the Chargers to cover in the over, 24-21.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers +1.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Jets are still impressing, especially after taking the Bills to task last week.  Their efforts have kept them in the hunt for a playoff spot (2.5 games back of the AFC East leading Patriots), even for a 4-5 team.  McCown has kept the ball in pretty safe hands while the running game has been keeping defenses honest with a pair of older backs.  The Buccs haven’t lived up to expectations this year and now their young star QB is hurt and will miss a few weeks.  After watching Hardknocks this year, I could’ve sworn this team could’ve turned some heads but now D-JAx is back to attitude he showed Philly on the way out and Fitzpatrick is leading the team.  The line moved 1 point in favor of the Jets since yesterday and I can’t believe that Fitz helped move that line.  Take the Jets to roll in the over, 31-17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -5.5, O/U: 40.5)

What’s there to say about the Bengals? A team that once had really good regular seasons but fizzled when it came time for playoffs, to a team that just can’t do much of anything. Of their 3 wins, only 1 came against a team at our above .500 (Bills).  The Titans have been a sleeper team to watch all season. They have statement wins against the Jags and Seahawks and are vying to stay atop of their division. Take the Titans to cover in the over, 27-20.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins +1.5, O/U: 40.5)

In the Case Keenum parts of the season, the Vikings have surprisingly been able to survive with a 5-2 record. While their record may be impressive it’s echo they came against that’s as equally unimpressive (Buccs, Bears,  Packers,  Ravens, Browns).  Keenum’s first test comes against a Redskins team flying high off of last week’s win in Seattle. Look for the Redskins offense to be on, as Cousins did his best Aaron Rodgers impression last week. Also look for their pass rush and coverage team too suffocate Keenum. How are the Vikes road favorites in this one? Take the Redskins to cover in the over with a win, 24-21.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -12, O/U: 45.5)

This line rose a point since Friday so that just tells you how Vegas feels about the Texans. They looked bad in week one with Savage and they still looked horrible with him last week losing against the Colts! Talk about surprises in the NFL, the Rams turnaround from last year is amazing. We knew Gurley would have another good season but for Goff to look completely different is the real shock. Now he has better weapons than last year but it’s definitely the change in mindset of this team from their new coach that has them flying. Take the Rams to win handedly in the under, 27-10.


Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons, 4:25p (Falcons -3, O/U: 48.5)

The Falcons may have one of the best offenses in the league but they just can’t pull away from opponents in their games. Just when you thought they get a decent lead, it’s squandered away late and they have to claw on the 4th. Their schedule up to this point shows the struggle of this season (wins: Bears, Packers, Lions, Jets / losses: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Panthers).  The ‘Boys will be without the only “boy” on their roster (Elliott) as it looks like he finally will be serving his 6 game suspension. They’ll still have some success given the veterans on their roster and the talented Dak Prescott under center. They’ve beaten some really good teams in the last 2 weeks (Chiefs & Redskins) but losing Zeke is huge.  The Falcons will be able to build a lead through the air of their defense can hold the boys on offense. Take the Falcons to cover the in the over, 31-27.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 42)

This one should be an interesting game.  I’m not kidding you, interestingly bad. These offenses are in shambles but their defenses have kept them in games. I don’t have many whimsical stats for you but the excitement of possibly seeing Jimmy Garoppolo is alive and could breathe life into this team if he eventually takes the field today. Take the 49ers to cover in the under, 14-13.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 8:30p (Broncos +7, O/U: 44.5)

The line has come down to 7 which makes this a near “must bet” game. I know Denver has played the Patriots well in the last few years but the had one of the best QB’s to lace them up leading them.  This offense is lackluster, and have been flat all season long. Osweiler got the nod to start last week and it didn’t go very well and while he may have beaten the Patriots the last time Blake faced them, basically all of his key weapons have some sort of nagging injuries and there’s a bunch of tape on his game and if anyone can scour tape and magnify flaws of a bad QB, it’s Belichick and the Pats.  Brady and the Pats are showing everyone how you follow up a Super Bowl win, starting the next session 6-2 with wins like the Saints game in New Orleans.  Don’t expect much to change for them in this game. They’re going to want to get on the board fast and often. Take the Patriots to cover in the over, 31-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Minnesota -1
  • LA Chargers +4
  • Buffalo +2.5
  • Tampa Bay +2.5
  • Dallas +3
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