New York Giants @ New England Patriots, Gillette Stadium, 8:20 PM, FOX/NFLN (Patriots -17, O/U: 41.5)
The Giants have been hanging in this season despite their absolutely horrendous defense. Their defense ranks 34rd to last in yards allowed with 2,047 yards however their offense are tops in the league with the highest percentage of drives that end in a turnover (20.4%). That puts tired defenses back on the field to get torched. Their defense still has output (5 picks, 6 fumbles recovered and 13 sacks) but when you’re on the field all the time, you’re bound to make plays but give up a ton of yards. The Giants are also down to their 3rd string running back (Jon Hillman) with Saquon Barkley being out with a severe ankle sprain and Wayne Gallman has a concussion and is ruled out. Daniel Jones is completing 64% of his passes but only averaging 248 yards in his 3 starts. Barkley surely has made defenses solely focus on Jones as his yards have steadily declined with each game he’s started, 336 yards against the Buccs with Barkley, 225 against the Redskins & 182 yards against the Vikings, both games without Barkley. Expect more of the same as he’s thrown his 3 picks in games without Barkley.
The Patriots absolutely destroy teams with bad defenses and they don’t ever let up against division rivals or teams that they have a grudge against. If you think the Pats forgot about the 2 super bowls that Eli stole from them, you’re sadly mistaken. Eli has always played them tough and this will be the first meeting since before 2007 where the Giants will face the Patriots without Eli. The Pats against Eli were 2-3 with the average game being decided by a mere 3 points! The Patriots are the leagues top defense, which is rare for them at this point of the season and have only allowed 34 points in 5 weeks which is nearly half of the 49ers who are 2nd. They’ve allowed the 2nd least amount of yards but tops in average yards allowed per play and are tied with the Steelers for the most turnovers created with 11 picks, 1 fumble recovered and an amazing 24 sacks (leading the NFL). Brady hasn’t needed to be relied upon as much as the Pats usually do early in the season. He still has top 10 stats in most categories and protecting the ball as he does with 10 TD’s against 2 picks. Now, granted, they’ve probably had the softest schedule of any NFL team, outside of playing the Steelers and Bills, they’ve played 3 of the leagues worst and you might as well add the Giants to that since they are bottom half of the league in most categories. Lastly, Brady passed Brett Favre on the all-time yards list last week, it’s Favre’s 50th birthday today and tonight Brady only needs 18 more yards to pass Peyton Manning for 2nd all-time (how ironic).
Take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 31-10.