NFL Week 4: Monday Night Football Pick & Prediction

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Heinz Field, 8:15 PM, ESPN (Steelers -4, O/U: 45.5)

The Bengals are reeling after another tough road loss against the Bills last week. Only being blown out at home against the 49ers, the Bengals have lost their 2 road games by a combined 5 points. Andy Dalton is 4th in the league in passing with 979 yards, 5 TD’s and 3 picks while completing 63% of his passes. He’s been without AJ Green (who is expected to be out until at least week 7) but have had John Ross (13 catches for 292 yards, 3 TD’s) and Tyler Boyd (24 catches for 250 yards) step up to fill his shoes together. Their issues have been lack of Mixon’s rushing game (87 yards on 32 carries) and their rush defense which has given up 168.7 yards per game)

The Steelers are living a very similar story where they’ve had 2 close loses of 6 points combined yet were blown out by the Pats in week one. Shockingly, with Big Ben getting hurt in week 2, the Steelers have managed to stay in both games with their backup, Mason Rudolph. Mason has only completed 57% of his passes but has limited turnovers with 4 pass TD’s and 2 picks. Still, the offense has struggled mightily, averaging 204 yards through the air and 64 yards rushing with Conner only averaging 2.9 yards on 34 carries and 97 yards. The offense isn’t the only one struggling as the defense has given up 303 yards through the air and 139 yards on the ground per game. It has been an ugly start with seeing Big Ben go out with injury, Bell and Brown leaving the offense all in the same season. The Steelers are struggling in a way that could hamper them until the end.

This game will be absolutely nasty as both teams are looking up at the Pound Puppies leading the division…yes, you read that right, 4 weeks in, the Browns are leading the division. Take the Bengals to finally get a road win against a virtually hapless Steelers, Bengals cover in the under, Bengals 20-14.

Week 3: Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins, FedEx Field, 8:15 PM, ESPN (Redskins +5.5, O/U: 41.5)

The Bears should scare you.  Their defense surely should scare you because they’re pretty good but this offense should scare you as in anemic, hard to watch, lacking.  Trubisky has yet to throw a touchdown but has a pick.  He’s only accumulated 348 passing yards and averaging only 4.8 yards per attempt while only completing just 58% of his passes.  That means he’s relegated to dink and dunk passes and still can’t get the offense going.  The rushing game hasn’t been there either with only amassing 118 yards on 36 carries for 3.2 yards per rush between 3 backs.  The Redskins have an 0-2 record but given the 2 divisional juggernauts (Eagles week 1, Cowboys week 2), and how they weren’t necessarily blown out of either game, things aren’t looking too bad after losing Alex Smith late last year.  Keenum’s numbers look like his 1 really good year with the Vikings, completing 69% of his passes for 601 yards, 5 TD’s and no picks.  Terry McLaurin has been the early favorite target as he has 10 catches fro 187 yards and 2 TD’s.  The rushing game has yet to come through as Guice is back to being injured after week 1 and AP couldn’t get going last week either after being marked as a healthy scratch week 1.  Given the Redskins defense ranking 30th in points and yards allowed, this one might get ugly but the Bears might be on the losing side of this one when the clock hits 0 because of their inept offense.  Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-17.

NFL Week 2: Monday Night Football Prediction & Pick

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets, MetLife Stadium, 8:15 PM, ESPN (Jets +6.5, O/U: 45.5)

Cleveland came out flat last week and were all hype on paper and got punched in the mouth in front of their own fans by a Titans team who really has many doubts up and down that roster.  Even their more sturdy/reliable defense was shown up.  On paper, the Browns look stacked and should have a winning season but you don’t win games on swagger.  Mayfield might’ve been selected #1 overall and turned around the Browns from being 1-31 over the previous 2 seasons before his arrival, but he still has a ton to prove.  Throwing 3 picks to open the season, is not ideal but it is a learning curve.  OBJ had watchgate all week and threatens to wear it again tonight.  Are the Browns self imploding over self wants?

The Jets are without their young QB Darnold as he was dealt a mono diagnosis early in the week.  Trevor Siemian will be filling in and he’s been looking for his next break since he’s left Denver.  At least the Jets will have someone whose started and played a full NFL season instead of some young hanger-on whose been a career backup with a handful of NFL game action throws in his short career.  They traded the Patriots for Demaryius Thomas with Quincy Enunwa being lost for the year.  Bell will have to be relied upon to carry a big workload since Thomas won’t be up to speed on the playbook.  Robby Anderson needs to turn it on to swoop in under the radar if the Jets are looking to steal one in a moment of weakness.

OBJ may have fired up Greg Williams and his defense by calling him out during the week for purposely trying to injure players and he will certainly have a target on his back and even his watch.  Given that, Take the Browns to win but the Jets to cover in the over, Browns 27-24.

 

NFL Week 1: Monday Night Football

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 7:10 PM, ESPN (Saints -6.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Texans made some moves this offseason to help Lamar Miller and the rushing game and it proved necessary as Miller is lost this season before the preseason ended to a knee injury. They traded for Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, who are a good enough tandum to be effective enough. They also valued Watson’s blindside (Tunsil) more than a second elite pass rusher (Clowney). The Saints had back to back disappointing losses in the playoffs to end their season, last year on a brutal non call PI. Not a bunch changed on their roster but with Murray replacing Ingram and Cook coming in for a hole at TE coming off of a great year with Oakland should keep their offense on track. Saints end a 5 year opening week winless drought by winning but take the Texans to cover in the over, Saints 31-27.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, 10:20 PM, ESPN (Raiders +3, O/U: 42.5)

The Broncos have been waiting for years and finally, they have someone to lead their offense in Flacco. Philip Lindsay is back 100% from his broken wrist in the last game of last year, building off an amazing performance as an undrafted rookie. Flacco will have two great young receivers in Sutton and Hamilton to throw to as well as veteran Sanders. The defense pretty much stayed the same, should continue to dominate. The Raiders were mired by the AB drama between the frostbitten feet, helmet issues and GM/fines/contract issues, they still showed on HBO’S “Hard Knocks” that they had still worked hard despite all of that and played fairly well fitting their pre season games. Impressive undrafted rookie Kellan Doss comes back from his week on the Jaguars practice squad to sign a decent deal to be on the 52 man roster to fill in for AB’s spot. He will see plenty of targets after his impressive pre season. Josh Jacobs was drafted to be the feature back for the offense and from what he showed in his limited carries in the pre season, we’re in for a treat. I may be a bit high on them but take the Raiders to cover in the upset win in the under, Raiders 21-20.

Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Monday Night Football

It seems as though the 1pm games were giving me fits again yesterday but I bounced back beautifully hitting 3 for 3 in the 4pm games and nailed the Sunday night game with the Pats as 7 point road favorites against what is supposed to be one of the top 5 defenses in the league.

The Packers on the road were shocking as Brett Hundley actually made some really sweet throws. I didn’t think the Steelers pick would be a gamble on the road against the Colts, but like I said before, the Steelers on the road are just a different team. The Jets lost a game against a sinking ship. The Titans could slay the Bengals who are clawing at the bit to not have an absolutely terrible season. The Redskins disappoint at home after a huge come from behind victory in Seattle, only to lose at home to the all of a sudden, trendy Vikings. By the way, did you see Bridgewater suited up in that game as a backup, great story!

This league has been crazy week in and week out. Could’ve potentially had an amazing week but still grew to a 7-5-1 week 10 record so far. Anyways, this one is to help us get to 62%. On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers, 8:30p (Panthers -9, O/U: 38.5)

The Panthers have been slowly putting things together each of the last few weeks. They go from a dysfunctional team, with a dysfunctional quarterback who miraculously completes tons of passes to an efficient offense beating the likes of the Falcons and in previous weeks beating the Bills, Pats, Lions and kept a really close game against the Eagles. Cam’s stats aren’t tremendous through the air but they’re manageable. His interceptions have always been an issue. In 9 starts this year, his QB Rating has only been above 80% 4 times, and is a career 85% guy (average). He’s currently holding a 10 TD to 11 INT ratio, which is never good. But when he can break even or more TD’s to picks on that ratio, they win their games (6-0). So it looks like, no matter what his numbers are, as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over, he stays out of his head and gives his team a real shot in every game so long as he can focus.

What can I say about the Dolphins that will have you take them in this game? Nothing. Plain in simple, absolutely nothing. This is the worst offense in the league as far as scoring and yards go.  Can you believe that?  Worse than the Browns?  In some regards, you bet!  The Dolphins are dead last in the league in points scored, total offensive yards, rushing TD’s, average yards & points per drive and are 30th in net yards per attempt, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, 29th in passing yards, interceptions and so on. They’re going up against a defense that leads the league in yards allowed, 1st downs allowed, rushing TD’s allowed and are 2nd in passing attempts allowed, rushing attempts allowed, rushing yards allowed, 3rd in points allowed, average points allowed per drive. I think you get the point. The Dolphins will have a very hard time moving the ball, maybe even looking at it given how hungry and possessive these Cats are with the football.

Take the Panthers to cover in a route tonight, in the over, 31-10.

Week 9: Monday Night Football

You live and die by half points.  Yesterday, I died by one.  The Titans were a half point away from making yesterday a little better.  But hey, check out that Colts game!  Tom Savage didn’t look good early on this season and he didn’t look any better yesterday.  Two shocks yesterday was how exploited the Broncos defense was and that the Jaguars played so well without Leonard Fournette.  Tough one tonight, lets look at it:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +2, O/U: 42.5)

Detroit comes into this game with one of the worst yards per play in the league and the Packers have to try and rekindle their offense in the wake of Aaron Rodger’s injury.  Brett Hundley had 2 weeks to better understand the offense and get into rhythm with the first team offense.  The Lions have had their usual passing game but they haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush was in town in 2013 and have only one once in Green Bay since 1992 and it came at the hands of Matthew Stafford in 2013.  Aaron Jones has been a surprise diamond in the rough find for Green Bay, who has been struggling to find consistency in the backfield for years.  I still like Green Bay getting +2 at home against an offense that can’t put the ball in the endzone inside the opponents redzone.  This game either puts me at 50% or 58% so it’s important that I dig down deep on this one.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 24-21.