Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Monday Night Football

It seems as though the 1pm games were giving me fits again yesterday but I bounced back beautifully hitting 3 for 3 in the 4pm games and nailed the Sunday night game with the Pats as 7 point road favorites against what is supposed to be one of the top 5 defenses in the league.

The Packers on the road were shocking as Brett Hundley actually made some really sweet throws. I didn’t think the Steelers pick would be a gamble on the road against the Colts, but like I said before, the Steelers on the road are just a different team. The Jets lost a game against a sinking ship. The Titans could slay the Bengals who are clawing at the bit to not have an absolutely terrible season. The Redskins disappoint at home after a huge come from behind victory in Seattle, only to lose at home to the all of a sudden, trendy Vikings. By the way, did you see Bridgewater suited up in that game as a backup, great story!

This league has been crazy week in and week out. Could’ve potentially had an amazing week but still grew to a 7-5-1 week 10 record so far. Anyways, this one is to help us get to 62%. On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers, 8:30p (Panthers -9, O/U: 38.5)

The Panthers have been slowly putting things together each of the last few weeks. They go from a dysfunctional team, with a dysfunctional quarterback who miraculously completes tons of passes to an efficient offense beating the likes of the Falcons and in previous weeks beating the Bills, Pats, Lions and kept a really close game against the Eagles. Cam’s stats aren’t tremendous through the air but they’re manageable. His interceptions have always been an issue. In 9 starts this year, his QB Rating has only been above 80% 4 times, and is a career 85% guy (average). He’s currently holding a 10 TD to 11 INT ratio, which is never good. But when he can break even or more TD’s to picks on that ratio, they win their games (6-0). So it looks like, no matter what his numbers are, as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over, he stays out of his head and gives his team a real shot in every game so long as he can focus.

What can I say about the Dolphins that will have you take them in this game? Nothing. Plain in simple, absolutely nothing. This is the worst offense in the league as far as scoring and yards go.  Can you believe that?  Worse than the Browns?  In some regards, you bet!  The Dolphins are dead last in the league in points scored, total offensive yards, rushing TD’s, average yards & points per drive and are 30th in net yards per attempt, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, 29th in passing yards, interceptions and so on. They’re going up against a defense that leads the league in yards allowed, 1st downs allowed, rushing TD’s allowed and are 2nd in passing attempts allowed, rushing attempts allowed, rushing yards allowed, 3rd in points allowed, average points allowed per drive. I think you get the point. The Dolphins will have a very hard time moving the ball, maybe even looking at it given how hungry and possessive these Cats are with the football.

Take the Panthers to cover in a route tonight, in the over, 31-10.

Week 9: Monday Night Football

You live and die by half points.  Yesterday, I died by one.  The Titans were a half point away from making yesterday a little better.  But hey, check out that Colts game!  Tom Savage didn’t look good early on this season and he didn’t look any better yesterday.  Two shocks yesterday was how exploited the Broncos defense was and that the Jaguars played so well without Leonard Fournette.  Tough one tonight, lets look at it:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +2, O/U: 42.5)

Detroit comes into this game with one of the worst yards per play in the league and the Packers have to try and rekindle their offense in the wake of Aaron Rodger’s injury.  Brett Hundley had 2 weeks to better understand the offense and get into rhythm with the first team offense.  The Lions have had their usual passing game but they haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush was in town in 2013 and have only one once in Green Bay since 1992 and it came at the hands of Matthew Stafford in 2013.  Aaron Jones has been a surprise diamond in the rough find for Green Bay, who has been struggling to find consistency in the backfield for years.  I still like Green Bay getting +2 at home against an offense that can’t put the ball in the endzone inside the opponents redzone.  This game either puts me at 50% or 58% so it’s important that I dig down deep on this one.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 24-21.

 

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game.  Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts.  Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

 A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1.  Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless).  Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air.  The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air.  Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man.  This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

 

Week 6: Monday Night Football & Analysis

Well, we’ve come down to the end of week 6 and yet another bounce back week for me.  Tonight’s game will either cap me at 57% winners or 64% winners, either way, you should’ve made some money.

I don’t know what is going on in this league lately, maybe it’s the injuries, maybe it’s that some of these teams really did their home work in the coaching hires they’ve made and the rookies they’ve drafted but the league is super competitive this year.  18 teams hover at or around (higher/lower) the .500 mark by a game.  Now, you have 6 teams 2 games or more below .500 and 6 teams that are 2 games or more above .500 but it’s rather tight with more than half of the league.  Not to mention, a team like the 49ers have lost every game this year to go 0-6.  That might sound really bad, but take a look at how much they’ve lost by in their last 5 games and you may think differently about them, at Seahawks by 3, at home to the Rams by 2, at Cardinals by 3, at Colts by 3, at Redskins by 2.  That’s a helluva effort by Shanahan and his crew.

With that, lets go to some stats that I came across after breaking down my first 6 weeks of picks and let me tell you, there are some really odd trends.  Through the first 90 games:

ATS O/U ATS O/U
Thursday Night Sunday 1p
5-1 3-3 21-28-1 25-25
83% 50% 43% 50%
Sunday 4p Sunday Night
14-8 14-8 2-4 2-4
61% 61% 33% 33%
Monday Night Primetime
4-1-1 3-2-1 11-6-1 8-9-1
80% 60% 65% 47%
Bookend Nights Overall
9-2-1 6-5-1 46-42-2 47-42-1
82% 55% 52% 53%

There are my overall stats, pretty simplistic breakdown with the added bonus of seeing each set of games throughout the week.  The “Bookend Nights” are the combined record of the Thursday and Monday night games.  Pretty astonishing isn’t it?  I just love to see the trends when you breakdown my basic overall record to see where the strengths and weaknesses are in my picks.  That being said, I had some time to look at this breakdown even further:

Underdog Picks Road Dog Picks Home Dog Picks
22-9-1 71% 15-5-1 75% 7-4 64%
Favorite Picks Road Favorite Picks Home Favorite Picks
24-33-1 42% 8-13-1 38% 16-20 44%
Picks 7+ Points Picks 6.5 – 3 Points Picks 2.5 or Less Pts.
10-12 46% 24-23-2 51% 12-7 63%

As you can see here, I broke down my overall even farther, to the underdog and favorites in each pick as well as with 3 different spread categories.  I apparently LOVE the underdog picks and do very well in deciding on which underdog games will pay dividends.  The one jaw dropper I saw was my record with the road dogs.  75% winners on road dogs!  That’s insane!  Those are games not many bettors take and I’ve already bet on 21 of them, and pretty successfully.  Sadly, not so much on the favorites.  The one thing I’m jealous on is my one good buddies record on the games he picks to bet on with the favorites.  I think it’s obvious that I need to take some notes with him.

I also gave a point spread breakdown because there are games where you sit there, look at the line and go “man, if it was 6.5 instead of 7, I’d take it” among other lines scenarios.  Well, you can now look at my trends using that same thought process.  How successful I’ve been in selecting which spreads I’m better at deciding who’s going to cover.  I was actually shocked since the 2.5 point or less games are so hard to determine given that Vegas thinks the 2 teams at play are fairly equal, or at least that the road dog or road favorite is a bit more dominate even in the other teams house.  Nevertheless, I do pretty well with games that have under a 3 point spread.  But no you might want to know about the road dogs and favorites right?  Look no further:

RDog Picks 7+ Points RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
3-1 75% 8-3-1 73% 4-1 80%
RFav. Picks 7+ Points RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
0-3 0% 4-6-1 40% 4-4 50%
Dog Picks 7+ Points Dog Picks 6.5-3 Points Dog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
1-0 100% 3-4 43% 3-0 100%
Fav. Picks 7+ Points Fav Picks 6.5-3 Points Fav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
6-8 43% 9-10 47% 1-2 33%

As you saw, I’m a huge fan of the road dog and they help me win a good percentage of my games but I wanted to see what kinds of spreads I bet on them (RDog) with and the outcomes, as well as road favorites (Rfav.), the home dog picks (Dog), and home favorite picks (Fav.).  The numbers speak for themselves, road dog record, no matter what spread you’re getting, if I’m betting a road dog, you should be as well.  Same goes for the home dogs 7+ points and 2.5 points or less.  So far I’m undefeated there.

So there you have it, the complete breakdown of my picks.  You can see my strengths and weaknesses from the first 6 weeks of the season.  I hope to give you updates on these stats at the end of every month going forward.  Now, on to tonight’s Monday Night Football pick:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 8:30p (Titans -7.5, O/U: 48)

So let me get this straight, the Colts who are 2-3, who have a capable quarterback, receivers and running back are 7.5 point road dogs to the Titans who are without their stud rookie receiver and will start their leader, quarterback Marcus Mariota after sitting out a week with a hamstring issue?   Hamstrings are no joke and take some time to heal.  Mariota, even with a good offensive line, is known to scramble and make plays with his legs.  The Colts will look to keep him in the pocket and hit him low or at least wrap him up to the point where he tries to break free and possibly re-aggravate his hamstring injury.  He won’t have much help around him with injuries and DeMarco Murray having a bleak couple of weeks in rushing yards.  Jacoby Brissett has some of the tools that Andrew Luck has in regards to movement.  They both can move well inside and outside of the pocket, it’s the decision making that’s key.  Brissett has 60% completions this year and only 3 INT’s but just a measly 2 TD’s.  He hasn’t looked fantastic in the red zone with his arm but has made things happen with his 3 TD runs.  In the end, both defenses are in the bottom 3rd in the league, the Colts are worse but bad is bad.  I don’t expect this to be a shootout but I do expect the Colts to keep it close.  Take the Titans to win but the Colts to cover as road dogs in the under, 21-17.

Lastly, I want to wish my warmest regards to Aaron Rodgers.  I was devastated to hear about the broken collarbone.  I’m a huge Packer fan and he is our team.  I hope for a speedy recovery, we need ya 12!

 

Week 5: Monday Night Football w/ Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

This week has been another up and down week with some real shockers and major injuries to star players.  We ended Sunday 6-7 against the spread on Sunday and 8-5 with the O/U.  I’m ready to just say scrap my early 1 pm picks and stay with my 4 pm and primetime picks where I’m 21-11-1 (64%).  We need this one to get back to .500, lets see if my primetime greatness (luck) continues…

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 8:30p (Bears +3.5, O/U: 40.5)

Vikings are favorites on the road against a spiraling Bears team who will now turn to their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of Mike Glennon, who committed 4 turnovers last week against their in-division rival Packers.  Trubisky was not a favorite of the fans once drafted but as he got to work this summer, he started turning heads.  The fruits of his labor from the summer come to light tonight.  He will have a two headed monster in the backfield with Howard and rookie Cohen to help get the job done.  The Vikings on the other hand lost their rookie running back sensation, Dalvin Cook, to a season ending knee injury.  They will now turn to Latavious Murray, who was signed this past off season to fill in and do what he was paid $15 million to be the guy, at least for 3 years.  Case Keenum will be under center again with Thielen, Diggs and now Michael Floyd coming back from his suspension.  These two defense have fairly similar stats but it’s how the bears defense can respond to the aerial attack that the Vikings have. The Vikings have surprised is recently without Bradford, continuing to be a force in offense so take them to beat the Bears rookie Trubisky in the over, Vikings 24-20.

Well uncle Colin has finally been defeated as his unprecedented win streak has ended at 4 weeks. He lost with his Lions, Rams, Cowboys, and Texans picks.  He usually loves his dogs in games and this week proves why he shouldn’t have strayed. The Panthers, Seahawks and Packers were all road dogs that were given between a +3 to +2 but then passed on a red hot Chiefs team only giving up -1.  Better pluck next well Colin. 

Week 5: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

The week started off great with a big win.  I know Gronk was listed as out and that changed the line late but given I was finishing up the article, I didn’t hear about his injury until right at kickoff.  Ok, let’s not jinx the good start so far and get to todays picks.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Bills defense has shown up to play this year.  They got Matty Ice to look average again (which he is) by throwing all kinds of looks at him and rushing hard.  People undersold on the Bills early on but they’ve proven they can beat the best on the road.  The Bengals had a good week, doesn’t mean you should jump back on board but they looked much better.  Daulton can move a little in the pocket but can he stand in there with rushers coming after him and be responsible with the ball?  Take the Bills to win in the Over, 24-21.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Pickem, O/U: 40)

The Jets are another team that was sold out on early on.  They were picked to go 0-16 by the great Colin Cowherd.  They’re now tied with the Patriots and have a good shot to stay up near the top of the AFC.  They have to get their offense going to do so though.  Their defense has allowed 92 points and their offense has only scored 75.  Being 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road speaks volumes, they need their fans and the comfort of playing at home to play well.  McCown has completed 70% of his passes but has a 3/3 TD/INT ratio.  Their run game is their strength, 7th in the league.  The Browns defense isn’t the worst but it’s still down there.  They’ve thrown Kizer to the wolves and the poor kid can’t even break free.  51% completions, 3 TD’s to 8 INT’s.  It doesn’t look good for him.  There’s not one bright spot on this team and they’re going to vey for the 1st pick in the draft again and probably squander it again. Take the Jets as a straight up winner in the under, 17-10.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Panthers went into New England and upset the defending Champs.  It was a shocking win and Cam looked like his old self.  It’s been almost a year and a half since we’ve seen him perform like that.  The Lions have had way too many come from behind games in the 4th quarter to my liking and they’ve been exceptionally lucky in those games, coming out better than .500 in wining those games.  When does the luck run out or are they that clutch when they absolutely need a score?  I don’t think the Panthers can pull off another road upset especially given the off the field issues that followed came after a press conference this week that caused a lot of negative buzz.  Take the Lions to cover in the win and in the under (possibly in the 4th quarter?), 20-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts -1.5, O/U: 44.5)

This matchup was initially billed as a snoozer but then Jacoby Brissett has taken over the reigns in Lucks absence and has really looked good.  They’ve had a tough schedule early without Luck and played most of the teams tough but have had their fair share of turnovers that turned into points.  The 49ers also have had a tough schedule to start the season, Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals and they’ve lost the last 3 games by a field goal.  The 49ers defense has hung tough, even on then road.  The Colts can run with the better teams if they don’t turn the ball over and have a shot at wins against the bottom 3rd of the league.  This was a toughy but I am going to take the 49ers to win and in the over, 27-24.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +2.5, O/U: 43)

Mariota will be out with Matt Cassel filling in.  The Dolphins who looked to have fell into a miracle with Cutler coming out of retirement and playing for Adam Gase again, winning their first game, Cutler smiling.  Since, they’ve looked miserable on offense with Ajayi virtually pulling a disappearing act on the stat sheet.  What did it in for me was Cutler on a noticeable run play, Cutler spread wide out to help sell the trick play just stood there, nonchalantly, uninterested in the play.  I guess we’re back to the old Cutler.  The Titans however still have a really good 1-2 punch in the backfield with Murray and Henry.  That will be the key to the game for the Titans, run early and often, and control the clock, keeping the rock out of Ajayi’s hands.  Take the Titans to win and cover in the under, 20-10.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants, 1p (Giants -1.5, O/U: 47.5)

The Chargers haven’t looked good at home and actually have shown to not really have a fan base, even seeing other teams fan bases show up more than their own.  The Chargers have been in all of their games this year and that is a continuation of the last year.  They are another team, like the 49ers, who have had 3 of their 4 losses end with a difference of 3 or less points.  Three of their 4 games have been at home so I think the road game across country may give them a change of scenery and spark this team in an odd way.  The Giants started the first 2 games of the year looking absolutely unwatchable.  They had question marks in the backfield and on the offensive line but no one thought it would help generate the product that was shown.  In the last few weeks however, we’ve seen a turn around, losing each of the last 2 on the road by a field goal or less.  They still have those questions but have played better despite the fact.  The Chargers however, have been the better team statistically and both defenses have been keeping their teams in games.  I still would take the Chargers to cover the spread, being given 3, to win in the over, 31-24.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -6.5, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams have been exciting to watch, even the Cardinals who have been without their star running back David Johnson.  Now, that has meant that Carson Palmer has had to throw more but with their receiving corps, it’s been fluid.  The Eagles pass game improved with their offseason additions but the real surprise was the emergence of a solid run game.  They lost Sproles for the season but Blount has taken hold of primary back duties with Smallwood complimenting him nicely.  This will be a very fun game to watch.  The Cardinals need their fans in this time of need, missing Johnson so take the Eagles to cover this one in the over, since it will be a shootout, 35-27.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1p (Steelers -7.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Jags have had a shocking start to the season, at 2-2 but a loss to the Jets in OT may have brought their larger than normal self start back down to Earth.  Bortles actually has 7 TD’s to 3 INT’s but lacks in the yardage and seems to have been on a leash to start the year and control his play, especially given the talent they have in the backfield with him, Leonard Fournette.  They’ve also had the best defense against the pass, given they’ve also played the Jets, Texans (before Watson started) and the hapless Ravens.  The Steelers have also had a good start but given their schedule so far, who knows how good they really are.  Bell has had a decent but slower than normal start given he sat out all of the pre-season.  The surprise for the Steelers has been their defense, 2nd overall and 2nd against the pass.  Big Ben has a 62% completion percentage with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio.  With this one being at home, take the Steelers to win in the under, 21-10

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -1.5, 47.5)

All of a sudden the Rams have an efficient offense.  The arrival of their new young coach, Sean McVay, has given Goff a new start in year 2.  The Rams have the 5th best offense overall and pass offense in the league.  Their defense needs a boost but they have the talent to turn it around.  The Seahawks have been the typical slow start Seahawks but have been turning it on lately with their offense.  The only real defense they faced to give them trouble was the 49ers, to which they almost lost to them in mostly a field goal challenge.  The Seahawks offensive line will have the microscope on it again, as they allow Wilson to constantly be under duress.  The Rams typically give the Seahawks fits and especially in Seattle.  I would take the Rams to cover, win and in the under, 27-20.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders, 4:05p (Raiders -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Ravens have looked absolutely horrible this season and the only reason they are 2-0 is because those wins came against similar dumpster fires earlier on in the season, the Bengals and Browns.  They got trounced by the Jags in London and the Steelers just last week.  Their offense is near last in the league and their defense is in the bottom 3rd of the league.  Now the Raiders started hot but the last 2 games have been a struggle but against 2 solid defenses (Redskins/Broncos).  They also lost their leader, Derek Carr, to a back injury for 2-6 weeks.  EJ Manuel is a capable backup and can get some wins in the next few weeks but it’ll take his best, starting with a good potential confidence booster in this matchup.  This should be an easy cover at home, take the Raiders to cover in the under, 20-14.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -3, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams always seem to give a show.  Green Bay has been red hot despite lacking a real running game, to which they are 28th in the league.  The real shocker has been their defense which has been 6th in the league.  This team has basically lived and died by the arm of Rodgers who is off to a great start, averaging 286 yards/game and a rating just over 100.  Dallas’s motivation for this game is to avenge the bad loss to the Rams at home last week.  This team all around has been a middle of the pack team all around.  They really don’t have a deep threat and opposing defenses can keep the play within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage which bodes not so good for Dak.  Zeke has had successful games against Green Bay (2 games totaling 282 yards), so expect him to have a solid game.  This will be an amazing game to watch with the Cowboys wanting payback for last years heartbreaking playoff loss.  Green Bay needs this win as a landmark win, to help their critics R-E-L-A-X.  Take the Packers to cover and win in the over on the road, 34-29.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, 8:30p (Texans +1, O/U: 45)

A lot of people are giving Houston a real shot at winning this game and it’s because of the play of Rookie, Deshaun Watson.  The Texans haven’t had a great passing game but it’s been effective.  Not only can he pass but he’s rushed for nearly 150 yards on 19 carries (7.79 yards per rush average).  He looks to be the real deal for them which could make them more dangerous as the season goes on.  Watt and Clowney will have to watch their rush, how deep into the pocket they go on Smith since Smith is a mobile quarterback.  What can you say about the Chiefs that will convince you not to take them?  Absolutely nothing.  You’re talking about the 2nd best offense and 1st rushing offense in the league.  Alex Smith has been on a tear, 8/0 TD/INT ratio along with Kareem Hunts record setting 502 yards on 68 carries (7.38 yards/carry) and 4 TD’s.  Their defense hasn’t been terribly great but that can be attributed to facing strong offenses early, not to mention, the offense has been on fire!  Despite the calls for an upset, I’m taking the Chiefs to get to 5-0 by covering in the over, 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Carolina @ Detroit (-3)

LA Chargers (+3.5) @ NY Giants

Seattle @ LA Rams (-2.5)

Green Bay @ Dallas (-2)

Kansas City @ Houston (+1)