Week 15: Monday Night Football

New Orleans vs Carolina, 8:15p, ESPN (Panthers +6, O/U: 50.5)

The Saints ran into a scare last week against the Buccs until they had to rattle off 25 unanswered points to pull out a win. While they barely covered the spread, questions remain as to if they can keep up their play on the road, such has been much better than in years past? Michael Thomas has 298 catches in his first 3 years with its an NFL record (102 so far this year) and he’ll continue to be the main target tonight. The defense wo have their hands full with Cam and McCaffrey even as the top team against the run (mostly due to jumping on teams early, forcing more passing).

Cam comes into this game with a sore shoulder. Whether that affects him trying to find DJ Moore down the field or not will be seen early on. As for McCaffrey, he’s got nearly 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs. It’ll be intersting to see how the linebackers trying to matchup up with the speedy backs.

Saints on the road: 6-1 (31 pts for/game & 20 pts allowed/game)

Saints ATS on the road: 6-1

Panthers at home: 5-1 (31 pts for/game & 23 pts allowed/game)

Panthers ATS on the road: 4-2

Take the Panthers to cover in the loss in the over, Saints 34-30.

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Week 14: Monday Night Football

Minnesota vs Seattle (Seahawks -3, O/U: 46)

The Vikings have been seesawing the last handful of weeks winning, losing, winning, losing. They have had success when they’ve had a pass rush and more importantly failures when they couldn’t get to the quarterback. They also haven’t been able to stay up with top competitive teams in the league like the Bears, Patriots and Saints. Don’t let that win in Green Bay fool you, it’s a great win in Lambeau but against a defense that isn’t great and an offense lacking punch.

The Seahawks have been on fire with a 3 game winning streak despite having lost to the Rams twice, Chargers and Bears. The two differences are they were closer games and they’ve won the “easier” games. Another difference is the play calling. The Seahawks run the ball more as Wilson averages less than 250 yards per game but in his last 4 games he has 11 TDs to 0 picks. Their defense has quietly been climbing the ladder to bring a top 10 defense as well, allowing the league’s 9th best in scoring (21.6 points).

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 28-24.

Week 13: Thursday Night Football

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:20p, NFLN (Cowboys +8, O/U: 52.5)

New Orleans comes in with the league’s best offense, averaging 37.2 points per game. They’ve also only turned the ball over 9 times, tied for the league lead. Michael Thomas has 86 catches already and Kamara has been hot all year, especially the last 6 games where he has 9 touchdowns! The Saints also lead the league in rushing defense which is more than likely from teams being forced to throw more given how quick the Saints go up early in games, which has caused the pass defense to be 30th worst in the league. The rush defense will be tested tonight.

The Cowboys have really turned it up lately since Amari Cooper has come aboard eventhough he’s really only been involved in the offense starting last week on Thanksgiving with an 8 catch, 180 yards and 2 touchdown performance, looking like the first rounder he was supposed to be. Garrett will have to strategize against the Saints and do his best to keep the Saints high powered offense off the field. That means utilizing the league’s leading rusher, Zeke (1,074 rushing yards). But when the ‘Boys defense is on the field, they’ll need Lawrence to continue his wrath of the last 4 games where he’s snagged 3 of his 8.5 sacks on the season. Question is, can the Cowboys newly found 3 headed monster keep up with the Medusa (multiple weapons) offensive threat of the Saints?

Take the Saints to cover on the road in the over, Saints 36-24.

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Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

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Week 10: Sunday Games

Arizona at Kansas City, 1:00p, FOX (Chiefs -15.5, O/U: 50)

These games are always tough to put money on but the Chiefs have beaten better teams by two touchdowns. The issue with the Cardinals is their offense and the lack of points being scored. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 38-18.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets -7.5, O/U: 38)

This game isn’t going to be pretty with McCown in for an injured Darnold and Allen coming back from his concussion. Allen gives the Bills the best chance to win obviously because he has been the jack of all trades given he led his team in rushing up until his injury. Take the Bills to cover and win in the under, Bills 17-14.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -3, O/U: 48)

Reports out of Jacksonville state that the locker room is pissed off and will play as such being on a four game slide. Fournette is scheduled to make his return this week. Luck has been on fire this season and his much much much improved offensive line hasn’t allowed him to be sacked in the last 3 weeks. That truly gives us a sense as to what Luck can do with time in the pocket even without big name receivers. This is one of the games of the week to watch. Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 24-20.

New England at Tennessee, 1:00p, CBS (Titans +7, O/U: 47.5)

It’s a big spread on the road to cover. If at home, this spread would say that the Patriots would be favored by 13. I had a hard time with this given how inconsistent the Titans have been this year. Other things to consider, Gronk is out for Brady and the Titans have been tough against the run. It’s hard to go against Brady/Belichick so don’t, take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 24-14.

New Orleans at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals +6, O/U: 54)

The Saints are coming off of a big time win last week at home that saw them start off HOT but completely cool off in the 2nd half but still held off the high powered Rams offense. The Bengals line many good, not great, teams play so much better at home in front of their fans. Andy Dalton had played well this year but can fall under the spell of the turnover bug but rarely does so at home. No Green to throw to will limit this offense. I think the line is fare. Take the Saints to cover in the win in the over, Saints 31-24.

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3, O/U: 51)

Fitzmagic is back and looked about as good as he did before Winston came off suspension. The defense still had trouble stopping teams and the Redskins have looked good with the resurrection of AP in the backfield and field general Alex Smith moving the offense. The Redskins pass rush has looked good in recent weeks and will continue that trend this week. Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-21.

Atlanta at Cleveland, 1:00p, FOX (Browns +6, O/U: 51)

The Browns are in disarray even though they’re scoring, their defense isn’t playing to the caliber they’re used to and they are now facing their third high powered offense in 3 weeks. Julio Jones is finally on the score sheet which will give him more motivation to get in again today. Take the Falcons to cover in the over, Falcons 35-24.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00p, FOX (Bears -7.5, O/U: 44)

The Lions looked atrocious on offense last week, allowing Stafford to get sacked 10 times! The Lions will be missing key defensive players. Mack will be back so look for more of the same view from the turf for Stafford. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland, 4:05p, FOX (Raiders +10, O/U: 50)

I feel like I say this 8 times a year but again, the Chargers are a better team on the road. The Raiders are also another team in turmoil and their offense is LACKING. Take the Chargers to easily cover in the under, Chargers 31-17.

Miami at Green Bay, 4:25p, CBS (Packers -10.5, O/U: 48.5)

I understand that Osweiler has played well in his 4 starts but they’re going to the frozen tundra. Rodgers will have Valdez-Scantling getting more snaps in Allison’s absence, who had shown in previous games that he is a rookie that can offer big play ability along with Cobb and Adams. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 34-17.

Seattle at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, CBS (Rams -9, O/U: 51)

The Rams haven’t covered in the last few weeks and are coming off a huge game against the Saints on the road. They’ve also dealt with less practice time due to taking Friday off to help family and friends evacuate their homes due to the fires. Russell Wilson rarely loses by over a touchdown and they’ve played inspired football lately. Take the Rams to win an emotional game by the Seahawks to cover in the loss, in the under, Rams 27-21.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles -7.5, O/U: 44)

This will be another sloppy game by Dallas. They don’t have the weapons to give Dak many options. The Eagles added Golden Tate to the corps of receivers for Wentz to help make up for the lack of power in the backfield. Take the Eagles to cover big in the over, Eagles 27-14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • New Orleans at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (+5.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-3)
  • New England at Tennessee – New England (-6.5)
  • Seattle at LA Rams – Seattle (+10)
  • Dallas at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6.5)

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Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Carolina at Pittsburgh, 8:20p, NFLN (Steelers -3.5, O/U: 51.5)

Finally, we get a game on Thursday worthy of most football fans’ time.

The Panthers have enjoyed the last couple of games with Eric Reid on board to help the defense as the offense keeps rolling at home.  On the road, it’s a little bit of a different story where Cam stays the same but the offense doesn’t score as much.  History points to the Panthers as being a weak road team and even though they’ve lost 2 of 3 on the road (their only 2 losses), they were within 7 points in both games.  In fact, Cam has been stellar as far as his completion percentage and passer rating.  Cam is certainly having a career year but not only is Cam playing well, Christian McCaffrey is having a fantastic sophomore season in the NFL as well.

The Steelers have enjoyed a 4 game winning streak that started after a week 4 loss at home to division foe, Ravens.  That loss put them 0-2 at home and 1-2-1 overall with the season in peril, uncertainty with the Bell situation, turmoil in the organization with AB until they met the high flying Falcons at home the next week.  They haven’t looked back since.  Yes Big Ben has thrown 7 picks but also has 16 touchdowns, Conner slightly outperforming Bell from last year with the same amount of starts and Brown might not have a ton of yards or a great average per catch but has 9 touchdowns.  The defense has been in lockdown mode the last 4 weeks.

With the defense in lockdown mode, take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-27.

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Week 5: Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis vs New England, 8:20p, NFLN, (Patriots -10.5, O/U: 50)

It’s the battle of the twelves.  Andrew Luck back at it and revitalizing the Colts/Patriots rivalry that once included former Colts great Peyton Manning.

Both leaders will more than likely be without their top receivers (Hilton, Gronkowski) but Brady still would have Chris Hogan, Eric Ebron and newcomer Josh Gordon.  The running games for both have been coming along with both introducing rookies into thei backfields, leading their rushing attacks with Hines/Wilkins for the Colts and Michel for the Pats.

The Colts defense has looked improved compared to their most recent seasons and actually are near the pace the Patriots have set themselves this season.  The difference maker will be if the Patriots line can stop the defensive front of the Colts since Brady has an obvious lack of mobility.  This will be close early but once Brady gets dialed in, expect him to slowly pull away from the not quite 100% Andrew Luck.

There has been a huge uprising in the league this year where games you thought were a lock were turned upside down in the first few minutes.  Just when you thought, “ok, maybe this one isn’t such a slam dunk given how hard it’s been to nail bets this year”, not so fast my friend, just a friendly reminder, it’s HARD to win in Gillette Stadium.  Take the Patriots to cover in the win and in the under, Patriots 28-17.

#beatyourbookie