NFL Week 16: Saturday Games

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens, 4:30p (Ravens -13.5, O/U: 41)

Take the Colts to cover in the under but in a loss, Ravens 21-17.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +9, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Packers to cover in the over but in a losing effort, Vikings 27-21.

NFL Week 15: Monday Night Football

Yikes, what a week.  My 4pm games have taken nose dive!  7-4 heading into the 4pm games and it looked like I was heading to a double digit week but then a series of events cost me a very solid week.

First off, the Rams had 34 unanswered 1st half points to open off the game and I basically said halfway through the game “well, that’s a loss”, which made me chuckle, sadly.  Then we were blessed with the great matchup of the battle of 2 first seed type teams in the AFC, a real battle until the end.  Then the ugly head of the “what isa catch” rule decided to bite the Steelers in the rear.  That was followed by the confusing fake spike, botched slant pick which ruined even a tie.  That was a potential cover, hell, a tie would’ve been a cover, which I was ok with.  Lastly, the Raiders had a shot to cover late in the game which would’ve kept me above water.  That ended up being a bust the moment that Carr decided to gamble by trying to score on an early down play by fumbling the ball into the end zone while scrambling to his right when he saw a shot to score.  That ended up being a push.  That’s why it’s called betting, from a potential 9-6 to a realistic 7-7-1.

Needless to say, we need this one tonight…

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:30p (Buccaneers +7, O/U: 49.5)

Right now the matchup says Falcons should cover easily.  The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread in their last Monday Night games, Buccs are 0-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, Buccs are 0-5 ATS in their last NFC South opponents and the favorite in this matchup is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings (Falcons 5-3 as favorites, Buccs 2-0 as favorites).

The Buccs however, are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10, with one of their losses coming against the Falcons in Atlanta.  They will also be without Gerald McCoy, their leader on defense.  One of the Buccstop receivers, TE Brate is questionable with his hip and McDonald is also questionable with his back.  The Buccs are banged up but the Falcons have their injury issues with Sanu having knee issues but expected to play and Coleman out with a concussion.

The Falcons are still high powered and ready to rock.  Remember, the Buccs haven’t had off since week 1 and 14 straight weeks of an NFL season can take its toll.  Take the Falcons in the over, Falcons 34-17.

 

NFL Week 15 Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

So I almost forgot there were Saturday games and I might as well forget there are games more often.  2-0 from the Saturday games and I’m still schocked that the Chiefs were 1 point underdogs at home.  I get that the Chargers were hot in the last handful of weeks but the Chiefs defense woke up with 3 big turnovers in the 2nd half.  Colin chose the Bears again and again lost with them.  Will he learn?  Not much time for analysis again but here are Sunday’s games:

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 39) 

Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 21-17.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers -3, O/U: 47)

Take the Packersto cover in the over, Packers 31-27.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7, O/U: 41)

Take the Ravens to cover in the over, Ravens 27-17.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -10.5, O/U: 38)

Take the Jaguars to cover in the over, Jaguars 31-14.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -11, O/U: 42)

Take the Vikings to cover in the under, Vikings 31-10.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -16.5, O/U: 47)

Take the Saints to cover in the under, Saints 31-13.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, 1p  (Giants +7.5, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 24-13.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins -4, O/U: 41)

Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-17.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -1.5, O/U: 47.5)

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 30-17.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25p (Steelers +2.5, O/U: 54)

Take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-28.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25p (49ers -1.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 21-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders, 8:30p (Raiders +3, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Cowboys to cover in the under, Cowboys 24–14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Chicago at Detroit – Chicago (+5.5) X
  • Green Bay at Carolina – Green Bay (+3)
  • Miami at Buffalo – Buffalo (-3.5)
  • Tennessee at San Francisco – San Francisco (-2)
  • Dallas at Oakland – Oakland (+3)

NFL Week 15: Saturday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five

Holy crap, I nearly forgot there were Saturday games.  Not much time for analysis do here they are: 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, 4:30p (Lions -5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Lions to cover in the over, Lions 27-17.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:25p (Chiefs +1, O/U: 47)

Take the Chiefs in the over, Chiefs 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five:

  • Bears +5.5
  • Packers +
  • Bills -3.5
  • 49ers -2
  • Raiders +3

NFL Week 15: Thursday Night Football

I really have to find my swagger that I once had on Sunday 4pm and Sunday and Monday night games. They’ve been ruining my solid starts. Each of the last 2 weeks I’ve come out of the early games looking like I’ll hit double digit wins only to end up with an ideal winning percentage. Hopeful that changes tonight. 

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, 8:25p (Colts +3, O/U: 40.5)

Not long ago this would’ve been a 10+ point line with the Broncos being a favorite. That’s clearly not the case this season. Flip flopping between quarterbacks midway through the year and very inconsistent play on the road has made for a dismal season for them. Siemian has been bad, the pass defense hasn’t been what it used to be and the confidence is just gone. 

The Colts have just been what the Colts are without a star quarterback, bad.  They haven’t been a bad bad team but a tough bad team, especially as of late. In the snow in Buffalo last week, they lost in IT, were in close games (but losses) against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston and Cincinnati (losing each of those by 6 or less).  Gore has been really effective given his age and Brissett had played well given the circumstances and had the football world asking “who picks him up to start for their club next year?” 

The Broncos are 0-6 on the road against the spread and despite their win loss record, the Colts are 4-2 ATS at home. Take the Colts to cover in the over with a win, Colts 24-20.

NFL Week 14: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday 1pm games proved to be fruitful again for me this week but it was afterwards where I was average. So far I’m 8-6-1 for the week (57%) with a favorable matchup tonight. By the way, in the last handful of weeks I’m pulling 60% winners, just in case you need anymore convincing.  Now, on to tonight’s game: 

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:30pm (Dolphins +10.5, O/U: 48)

Despite this being one of the leagues top teams against a weak divisional, so called, “rival”, the Patriots are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and are 7-2-1 against the spread in those games. The Patriots are on an 8 game tear (winning streak) and covering the last 6 straight. During their last 8, they haven’t allowed more than 18 points, a stark improvement from their first half of the season.  

The Dolphins were apart of the Patriots last 8, losing in New England badly, 35-17. In the same time frame, the fins are 2-6.  Also, during this period, they only covered 2 games. Cutler has shown flashes of his old self in some games while looking completely stuck in retirement land during others. 

I can’t imagine this being close.  The Patriots are 5-0 on the road and I know Belichick and Brady love to beat the holy hell out of their divisional foes and they’ll do so again tonight. Take the Patriots to cover in the over, Patriots 38-20.

NFL Week 14: Sunday Games w/ Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Thursday night came as a bit of a shock to me.  Ryan had 3 picks and the Saints couldn’t pull away.  So the week starts off as 0-1 but with a full gamut of games again this week, I still can turn out a great week.  There are some really key matchups this week and we’ll dive into them.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 21-17.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 40)

Take the Vikings to cover in the over, Vikings 24-20.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -6.5, O/U: 39)

Take the Bears to cover in the under but in the loss, Bengals 20-17.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 27-20.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2.5, O/U: 45)

Take the 49ers to cover in the over, 49ers 27-24.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -2.5, O/U: 40)

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 21-20.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1p (Chiefs -4, O/U: 48)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 30-24.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers +3, O/U: 45)

Take the Lions to cover in the over, Lions 27-21.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals +3, O/U: 43)

Take the Titans to cover in the over, Titans 31-27.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos, 4:05p (Broncos +1, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Jets to cover in the under, Jets 21-14.

Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 46.5)

Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 31-24.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25p (Rams +1, O/U: 48)

Take the Eagles to cover in the over, Eagles 31-27.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 4:25p (Giants +3.5, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Cowboys to cover in the over, Cowboys 27-21.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30p (Steelers -4.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Steelers to cover in the under, Steelers 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Chicago at Cincinnati – Chicago (+5.5)
  • Minnesota at Carolina – Minnesota (-2.5)
  • San Francisco at Houston – San Francisco (+3)
  • Tennessee at Arizona – Arizona (+3)
  • Washington at LA Chargers – Washington (+6)

Season Stats Against the Spread:

Thursday Night Sunday 1p
9-7-1 53-49-4
56% 52%
Sunday 4p Sunday Night
29-15 5-7-1
66% 42%
Monday Night Primetime
7-6-1 21-18-3
54% 54%
Bookend Nights Overall
16-11-2 103-83-7
59% 55%
Underdog Picks Road Dog Picks Home Dog Picks
32-26-2 55% 22-16-2 58% 10-10 50%
Favorite Picks Road Favorite Picks Home Favorite Picks
71-57-5 56% 28-26-4 52% 43-31-1 58%
Picks 7+ Points Picks 6.5 – 3 Points Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
36-21 63% 45-40-7 53% 22-22 50%

 

RDog Picks 7+ Points RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
5-2 71% 11-8-2 58% 6-6 50%
RFav. Picks 7+ Points RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
7-5 58% 13-13-4 50% 8-8 50%
HDog Picks 7+ Points HDog Picks 6.5-3 Points HDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
1-0 100% 4-6 40% 5-4 55%
HFav. Picks 7+ Points HFav Picks 6.5-3 Points HFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
23-14 62% 17-13-1 57% 3-4 43%

 

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