NFL Week 16: Saturday Games

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens, 4:30p (Ravens -13.5, O/U: 41)

Take the Colts to cover in the under but in a loss, Ravens 21-17.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +9, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Packers to cover in the over but in a losing effort, Vikings 27-21.

NFL Week 15: Monday Night Football

Yikes, what a week.  My 4pm games have taken nose dive!  7-4 heading into the 4pm games and it looked like I was heading to a double digit week but then a series of events cost me a very solid week.

First off, the Rams had 34 unanswered 1st half points to open off the game and I basically said halfway through the game “well, that’s a loss”, which made me chuckle, sadly.  Then we were blessed with the great matchup of the battle of 2 first seed type teams in the AFC, a real battle until the end.  Then the ugly head of the “what isa catch” rule decided to bite the Steelers in the rear.  That was followed by the confusing fake spike, botched slant pick which ruined even a tie.  That was a potential cover, hell, a tie would’ve been a cover, which I was ok with.  Lastly, the Raiders had a shot to cover late in the game which would’ve kept me above water.  That ended up being a bust the moment that Carr decided to gamble by trying to score on an early down play by fumbling the ball into the end zone while scrambling to his right when he saw a shot to score.  That ended up being a push.  That’s why it’s called betting, from a potential 9-6 to a realistic 7-7-1.

Needless to say, we need this one tonight…

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:30p (Buccaneers +7, O/U: 49.5)

Right now the matchup says Falcons should cover easily.  The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread in their last Monday Night games, Buccs are 0-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, Buccs are 0-5 ATS in their last NFC South opponents and the favorite in this matchup is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings (Falcons 5-3 as favorites, Buccs 2-0 as favorites).

The Buccs however, are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10, with one of their losses coming against the Falcons in Atlanta.  They will also be without Gerald McCoy, their leader on defense.  One of the Buccstop receivers, TE Brate is questionable with his hip and McDonald is also questionable with his back.  The Buccs are banged up but the Falcons have their injury issues with Sanu having knee issues but expected to play and Coleman out with a concussion.

The Falcons are still high powered and ready to rock.  Remember, the Buccs haven’t had off since week 1 and 14 straight weeks of an NFL season can take its toll.  Take the Falcons in the over, Falcons 34-17.

 

NFL Week 15 Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

So I almost forgot there were Saturday games and I might as well forget there are games more often.  2-0 from the Saturday games and I’m still schocked that the Chiefs were 1 point underdogs at home.  I get that the Chargers were hot in the last handful of weeks but the Chiefs defense woke up with 3 big turnovers in the 2nd half.  Colin chose the Bears again and again lost with them.  Will he learn?  Not much time for analysis again but here are Sunday’s games:

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 39) 

Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 21-17.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers -3, O/U: 47)

Take the Packersto cover in the over, Packers 31-27.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7, O/U: 41)

Take the Ravens to cover in the over, Ravens 27-17.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -10.5, O/U: 38)

Take the Jaguars to cover in the over, Jaguars 31-14.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -11, O/U: 42)

Take the Vikings to cover in the under, Vikings 31-10.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -16.5, O/U: 47)

Take the Saints to cover in the under, Saints 31-13.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, 1p  (Giants +7.5, O/U: 40.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 24-13.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins -4, O/U: 41)

Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-17.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -1.5, O/U: 47.5)

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 30-17.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25p (Steelers +2.5, O/U: 54)

Take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-28.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25p (49ers -1.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 21-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders, 8:30p (Raiders +3, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Cowboys to cover in the under, Cowboys 24–14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Chicago at Detroit – Chicago (+5.5) X
  • Green Bay at Carolina – Green Bay (+3)
  • Miami at Buffalo – Buffalo (-3.5)
  • Tennessee at San Francisco – San Francisco (-2)
  • Dallas at Oakland – Oakland (+3)

NFL Week 15: Saturday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five

Holy crap, I nearly forgot there were Saturday games.  Not much time for analysis do here they are: 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, 4:30p (Lions -5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Lions to cover in the over, Lions 27-17.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:25p (Chiefs +1, O/U: 47)

Take the Chiefs in the over, Chiefs 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five:

  • Bears +5.5
  • Packers +
  • Bills -3.5
  • 49ers -2
  • Raiders +3

NFL Week 15: Thursday Night Football

I really have to find my swagger that I once had on Sunday 4pm and Sunday and Monday night games. They’ve been ruining my solid starts. Each of the last 2 weeks I’ve come out of the early games looking like I’ll hit double digit wins only to end up with an ideal winning percentage. Hopeful that changes tonight. 

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, 8:25p (Colts +3, O/U: 40.5)

Not long ago this would’ve been a 10+ point line with the Broncos being a favorite. That’s clearly not the case this season. Flip flopping between quarterbacks midway through the year and very inconsistent play on the road has made for a dismal season for them. Siemian has been bad, the pass defense hasn’t been what it used to be and the confidence is just gone. 

The Colts have just been what the Colts are without a star quarterback, bad.  They haven’t been a bad bad team but a tough bad team, especially as of late. In the snow in Buffalo last week, they lost in IT, were in close games (but losses) against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston and Cincinnati (losing each of those by 6 or less).  Gore has been really effective given his age and Brissett had played well given the circumstances and had the football world asking “who picks him up to start for their club next year?” 

The Broncos are 0-6 on the road against the spread and despite their win loss record, the Colts are 4-2 ATS at home. Take the Colts to cover in the over with a win, Colts 24-20.

NFL Week 14: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday 1pm games proved to be fruitful again for me this week but it was afterwards where I was average. So far I’m 8-6-1 for the week (57%) with a favorable matchup tonight. By the way, in the last handful of weeks I’m pulling 60% winners, just in case you need anymore convincing.  Now, on to tonight’s game: 

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:30pm (Dolphins +10.5, O/U: 48)

Despite this being one of the leagues top teams against a weak divisional, so called, “rival”, the Patriots are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and are 7-2-1 against the spread in those games. The Patriots are on an 8 game tear (winning streak) and covering the last 6 straight. During their last 8, they haven’t allowed more than 18 points, a stark improvement from their first half of the season.  

The Dolphins were apart of the Patriots last 8, losing in New England badly, 35-17. In the same time frame, the fins are 2-6.  Also, during this period, they only covered 2 games. Cutler has shown flashes of his old self in some games while looking completely stuck in retirement land during others. 

I can’t imagine this being close.  The Patriots are 5-0 on the road and I know Belichick and Brady love to beat the holy hell out of their divisional foes and they’ll do so again tonight. Take the Patriots to cover in the over, Patriots 38-20.

NFL Week 14: Sunday Games w/ Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Thursday night came as a bit of a shock to me.  Ryan had 3 picks and the Saints couldn’t pull away.  So the week starts off as 0-1 but with a full gamut of games again this week, I still can turn out a great week.  There are some really key matchups this week and we’ll dive into them.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 21-17.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 40)

Take the Vikings to cover in the over, Vikings 24-20.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -6.5, O/U: 39)

Take the Bears to cover in the under but in the loss, Bengals 20-17.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 27-20.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2.5, O/U: 45)

Take the 49ers to cover in the over, 49ers 27-24.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -2.5, O/U: 40)

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 21-20.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1p (Chiefs -4, O/U: 48)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 30-24.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers +3, O/U: 45)

Take the Lions to cover in the over, Lions 27-21.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals +3, O/U: 43)

Take the Titans to cover in the over, Titans 31-27.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos, 4:05p (Broncos +1, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Jets to cover in the under, Jets 21-14.

Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 46.5)

Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 31-24.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25p (Rams +1, O/U: 48)

Take the Eagles to cover in the over, Eagles 31-27.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 4:25p (Giants +3.5, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Cowboys to cover in the over, Cowboys 27-21.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30p (Steelers -4.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Steelers to cover in the under, Steelers 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Chicago at Cincinnati – Chicago (+5.5)
  • Minnesota at Carolina – Minnesota (-2.5)
  • San Francisco at Houston – San Francisco (+3)
  • Tennessee at Arizona – Arizona (+3)
  • Washington at LA Chargers – Washington (+6)

Season Stats Against the Spread:

Thursday Night Sunday 1p
9-7-1 53-49-4
56% 52%
Sunday 4p Sunday Night
29-15 5-7-1
66% 42%
Monday Night Primetime
7-6-1 21-18-3
54% 54%
Bookend Nights Overall
16-11-2 103-83-7
59% 55%
Underdog Picks Road Dog Picks Home Dog Picks
32-26-2 55% 22-16-2 58% 10-10 50%
Favorite Picks Road Favorite Picks Home Favorite Picks
71-57-5 56% 28-26-4 52% 43-31-1 58%
Picks 7+ Points Picks 6.5 – 3 Points Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
36-21 63% 45-40-7 53% 22-22 50%

 

RDog Picks 7+ Points RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
5-2 71% 11-8-2 58% 6-6 50%
RFav. Picks 7+ Points RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
7-5 58% 13-13-4 50% 8-8 50%
HDog Picks 7+ Points HDog Picks 6.5-3 Points HDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
1-0 100% 4-6 40% 5-4 55%
HFav. Picks 7+ Points HFav Picks 6.5-3 Points HFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
23-14 62% 17-13-1 57% 3-4 43%

 

NFL Week 14: Thursday Night Football

Last week we were off to a hot start on Sunday, going 7-2 on the 1 o’clock games before going 2-4 with the rest of the picks (2 games missed covering by 2 points or less), sneaky Vegas.  My second straight winning week still keeps me at 56% for the year.  As most of you are gearing up for your first week of fantasy playoffs, I’ll be sitting back planning next years drafts since I’m out in all 3 of mine, (shocking, I know), as I was eliminated in the last game of the regular season in 2 of the 3.  Can you believe that it’s week 14 already?  On to tonight’s game:

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, 8:25p (Falcons -2.5, O/U: 51.5)

Two of the most potent offenses square off against each other in a sweet Thursday divisional round matchup.  Ryan and Brees are riding their high flying offenses to being in the top 10 of the league at hurling the ball.

The last time these two met, the Falcons got the best of them but barely (38-32 in week 17 of last year).  The Saints were 7-9 and the Falcons went 11-5 and infamously lost in the Super Bowl.  Things are different this year, however.  The Falcons got off to a slow start (especially scoring in the red zone) and have been coming on in the last few weeks but the Saints have been hot since week 3 while showing off their revamped running game with Alvin Kamara and a defense that plays actual defense.

These teams are pretty evenly matched when you look at yards, points for and against but where the stats stand out for the Saints is their offense averaging 7 points scored more than the Falcons and their defense has improved vastly.

This one will be very close and could turn into a shootout right as soon as the first drive.  Take the Saints to cover in the over, 31-28.

 

NFL Week 13: Monday Night Football w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five

Wooo Woooo!  The train keeps rolling through week 13 with another solid week chock full of all NFL teams in action.  9-5 through Sunday has this guy on the verge of turning back to back double digit covers, something I don’t think I’ve ever done.  The Sunday games proved fruitfull as I went 7-2, while being disappointed yet again by the Chiefs but feel more violated by the refs who apparently didn’t like seeing the Chiefs ahead by 1 in the 4th.  The Chargers allowed the Browns to stay in the game, which I did predict could very well be close early but I did also expect the Chargers to pull away at some point as they have been looking like they were getting into playoff form in the last few weeks.  Lastly, how about the underdog covers of the 49ers and Dolphins!

Plenty to like about tonight’s game and the chances at getting the 10th win of the week.  On to tonight’s game:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30p (Bengals +4.5, O/U: 43)

The Bengals are at home and while this would grant most teams a home field advatage, it’s hasn’t been quite like that for them this year.  They barely beat some of the worst teams at home while getting obliterated by the Ravens early, and a close loss to the Texans.  Not much confidence coming into this one as the last meeting showed us every weekness in the team.  Having a lack of a running game really exposes Andy Dalton’s weak arm strength.  The only strong part of this team, which may hang up the Steelers offense early, is their defense.

The Steelers come into this game with one of the most start studded rosters in the league on offense.  They are a different team on the road in most cases but given the opponent, they may have more fun if they find success early in this one.  During the last meeting, Big Ben threw for just over 200 yards and Bell was the main attributor with   yards.

This one has potential to get ugly.  Take the Steelers to cover in the under, 27-13.  Colin Cowherd even liked them at -5.5!

 

 

NFL Week 13: Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Boy, the Cowboys looked like they came back to life Thursday, didn’t they?  Obviously Alfred Morris going off against his old team was a shock however my biggest shock of the game was the Dallas offensive line.  They moved heaven and Earth to open up some monster holes!  Regardless, a 12 win week is a 12 win week. It’s rare but do-able.  On to today’s games.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -2.5, O/U: 47)

These two teams basically match each other yard for yard on offense.  The main difference is the defense.  The Vikings have a top 5 defense (scoring & yards allowed).  Yes the Falcons have hit their stride recently but the Vikings have faired well on the road (4-1) and there’s no reason this train will slow down rolling into Atlanta.  Take the Vikings to cover in the over, 27-24.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens -3, O/U: 43.5)

The Ravens have been decent at home (better at home than on the road no matter what the records show).  The Lions have been way better on the road than at home (4-1 away, 2-4 home) and their offense is potent.  The Ravens defense is stingy and have only allowed 17 points per game (2nd best).  The Ravens started to show life inthe run game but lack the big play ability, especially with Flacco at the helm.  Freeney will provide a much needed boost to Detriot’s defense.  Take the Lions to cover in the under, 21-20.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills +9, O/U: 48.5)

One of the best offenses in the game verus one of the most average.  You already know who will be the best coached up team and if you think the Bills will cover, check out their decision to stay in the playoff race the other week by deciding to sit Taylor.  The Patriots average 9 points more scored per game.  Take the Patriots to cover in the under, 31-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears -3, O/U: 41)

The start of the Garappolo era is upon us.  With Shanahan finally getting a quarterback with some real talent, his offense can really take off now.  Garappolo showed what he has to offer last week, coming in on the last drive and leading them to a TD pass on the last play of the game.  The Bears have been keeping tight reigns on Trubisky, limitting his pass plays which keeps him from really playing to his potential.  If they get behind, Fox will unleash Mitch-a-polooza more.  Take the 49ers to cover in the over, 24-20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers -2.5, O/U: 45)

The Buccs started the season with so much potential but have faultered.  The offense looked a lot more lively under Fitzpatrick the last few weeks but they are turning back to Winston this week in Lambeau.  For Green Bay, the news of the week was that Rodgers will return on schedule for week 15.  Hundley looked much better last week against a tough Steelers defense and nearly pulled an upset.  The news of Rodgers’ impending return will bring a much needed energy boost to the team.  Take the Packers to cover in the under, 24-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -9.5, O/U: 40)

Brissett has looked solid in his first season as a starter and if Luck eventually becomes healed, Brissett will be the most wanted quarterback come the new season.  Gore stepped it up last week after going 7 games without a rushing touchdown, by finding the endzone.  The Jags spanked the Colts in Indy in late October.  They used the ground and air to shut them out.  This game will have a similar outcome.  Take the Jags to cover in the under, 24-14.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +2, O/U: 40)

Battle of the 2 ugliest teams in the league.  With Siemian getting the start for the Broncos, expect the offense to still be flat.  Moore being the better quarterback of the 2 will have a much easier time finding receivers with Talib serving his suspension.  Take the Dolphins to cover with a win in the under, 20-14.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -5, O/U: 48)
Carolina has been better on the road than at home this year (5-1, record and ATS) with sone notable wins in the road (Patriots).  Their defense is 2nd best in the league in allowing the least amount of yards but have had some surprising losses/close games against teams their physically better than (L to Chicago, close wins against Jets, Buffalo, Detroit).  The Saints are firing on all cylinders offensively, especially now that they have a running game. The only thing in question is how they’ll fair against a duel threat Cam who also has a during back in Stewart.  After AP was traded, Ingram and Kamara unleashed their powers in full and that offense has looked like that of their championship pass game since.  Still, the Saints rocked the Panthers at home earlier this year and the Panthers secondary has let up some big games lately. Take the Saints to cover in the over, 31-24.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, 1p (Jets -3, O/U: 44)
Josh McCown has looked sneaky good for a team that was predicted to fall flat on its face right out of the gates this year, especially in a tough division. The Chiefs jist finished a horrible, winless November and will look to reignite their team in this one. An offense that was so hot early had cooled and the rookie phenom Hunt has been called into question in the last few weeks. Their defense needs to step up as well, allowing the 6th most yards. Andy Reid is too good of a coach to allow this slide continue. Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -7, O/U: 43)
Savage has looked miserable in most of his starts this year and is a big reason we saw Watson so early in the season.  The Texans are banged up on both sides of the ball and are just bad on the road.  Mariota is going through a drop in efficiency as well with his 9/12 TD/INT ratio but he has also been hampered by hamstring issues for a good month. With Henry and Murray picking up the slack more lately, they’ll control the ball more and take advantage of short fields with the turnovers the Texans are likely to have. Take the Titans to return the favor covering in the over, 27-17.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -13.5, O/U: 44)
This one will be an interesting watch. The Chargers aren’t known for a high flying, high scoring offense (other than that Buffalo game).  They’re just 2-3 at home and their stadium is only partially full of their own fans which is tough on a team when they’d like for their crowd to be rowdy for the opposing team’s offense. Don’t be surprised if the Browns keep it close for most of this game. Take the Chargers to cover in the over, 31-17.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25p (Cardinals +7, O/U: 44)
Take the Rams to cover in the over, 31-17.
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders, 4:25p (Raiders -9, O/U: 41.5)
Take Raiders to cover in the under, 24-10.
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks +5, O/U: 47)
Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 31-24.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

  • Carolina at New Orleans – New Orleans (-4)
  • Detroit at Baltimore – Baltimore (-2.5)
  • Kansas City at NY Jets – NY Jets (+3)
  • Minnesota at Atlanta – Minnesota (+3)
  • Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Pittsburgh (-5.5)
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