Week 8: Monday Night Football

After a few small successful weeks, pulling back away from the .500 line, we had a blowout week.  As it stands, we are above 60% winners this week, no matter what happens tonight but could also have our best week this year and even with only 13 games on the schedule.  Coming into the week I thought it was going to be tough picking these games as I was looking at the lines earlier in the week.  There were 5 games with lines of 7 or more, 7 of the 13 games had a line of at least 6 or more.  It looked like an uphill climb.  However, after I really looked into each matchup, and linked what I read into what I’ve seen from the teams so far this year, I felt pretty confident in my picks and that we could have a good week.

I’m 8-4 so far against the spread this week and wouldn’t you believe it, I even took 5 teams favored by 6 or more coming away 4-1 (I should’ve known better to think that the Bengals could cover a 10.5 point spread, no matter the opponent).  This week puts me 8 games above .500 with a 54% cover rate, almost good enough to make a living out of doing this.  Obviously there’s luck involved.  If you break down the winning spreads from those 4 majorly favored teams that won, The Patriots covered by a point and the Saints covered by .5 points but hey, a cover is a cover.

One reason I made an emphasis on the large spreads this week is because of tonight’s matchup as well, which unlike the other 5 games with spreads over 7 points, will be a tougher call on my part given one teams really good defense and the other teams really good offense in one of the toughest places to play a road game in the league.  Now, on to tonight’s game:

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7 , O/U: 42)

The over is 4-0-1 the last 5 games between these two but the trends are surprisingly favoring the Broncos.  The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 in the last 6.

This one however will buck the trends.  The Chiefs come into this game covering all but two games (their last 2), which is pretty impressive given their opponents.  This is thanks to rookie sensation Kareem Hunt and the deadly accurate Alex Smith.  Smith is connecting on over 72% of his passes as he is playing for the Chiefs to keep him around and Hunt is having a rookie dream season compiling over 700 yards, 5.8 yards per carry.

The Broncos offense is having a hard time getting it together.  Trevor Siemian has been accurate but 8 td’s to 7 picks is bad and he has a light 1,471 yards through 6 games is only 245 yards per game. 

Both defenses are good but if your offense can’t score, it ultimately hurts your defense since they are in the field more. Take the Chiefs to win in the over, 31-17.

Let’s get to 69% winners this week baby, go chiefs! 

Week 8: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (L), 9:30a (Browns +11, O/U: 38.5)

Take the Vikings in the over, Vikings 31-10.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -2, O/U:47)

Take the Raiders in the under, Raiders 24-20.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -10.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Bengals in the over, Bengals 31-17.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -7, O/U: 49)

Take the Patriots in the over, Patriots 35-21.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Saints in the over, Saints 31-23.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +6.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Jets in the over but the Falcons to win, Falcons 31-28.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -12.5, O/U: 44.5)

Take the Eagles in the over, Eagles 34-14.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers -1, O/U: 46)

Take the Buccaneers in the under, Buccs 24-21.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks, 4p (Seahawks -6, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Texans in the over, but the Seahawks to win,  28-24.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins, 4:25p (Redskins +2.5, O/U: 46)

Take the Cowboys in the over, Cowboys 28-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions *, 8:30p (Lions +3, O/U: 44.5)

Take the Steelers in the under, Steelers 24-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at NY Jets – Atlanta (-4)
  • Carolina at Tampa Bay – Carolina (+2)
  • LA Chargers at New England – LA Chargers (+7.5)
  • Houston at Seattle – Houston (+5.5)
  • Dallas at Washington – Dallas (-2.5)

 

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes.  Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games.  Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year.  WRONG!  Belichick corrected that ship.  Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more.  Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks.  On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight.  Sheesh.  Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game.  As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs.  Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning.  Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over.  Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year.  Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent.  Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr.  Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles.  Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras:  World Series talk.  Holy S**t, what a series so far.  2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot.  The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2.  Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling.  Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead.  Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great.  Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game.  Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts.  Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

 A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1.  Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless).  Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air.  The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air.  Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man.  This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

 

Week 7: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, the last two games have been severely disappointing and unlike anything I’ve seen in picking games against the spread.  It’s heartbreaking to lose 2 games in the last minute of games. As for this week, I will not be throwing in analysis for each game, I simply had no time this weekend but have no fear, I still watch most plays in all gamers.  Enough talk, here’s my picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 45)
Take the Bills to cover at home in the under, Bills 24-17.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)
Take the Panthers on the road to cover in the over, Panthers 24-20.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns ,1p (Browns +5.5, O/U: 45)
Take the Titans to cover in the under, 27-16.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Saints -4, O/U: 47.5)
Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 33-27.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +3, O/U: 43.5)
Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 20-17.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (L), 1p (Rams -3, O/U: 45.5)
Take the Rams to cover in the over, 27-24.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins -3, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Jets to cover in the over, Jets 21-20.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -4.5, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Vikings to cover in the over, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1p (Steelers -5.5, O/U: 40.5)
Take the Steelers to cover in the under, Steelers 20-14.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +6.5, O/U: 48.5)
Take the Cowboys to cover in the over, Cowboys 31-21.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25p (Chargers +1, O/U: 40.5)
Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 21-20.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, 4:25p (Giants +3.5, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Giants to cover in the over, Giants 24-20.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots , 8:30p (Patriots -3, O/U:56.5)
Take the Falcons to cover in the under, Patriots 31-24
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:
Arizona at LA Rams – LA Rams (-3.5)
Baltimore at Minnesota – Minnesota (-5.5)
Carolina at Chicago – Carolina (-3)
Dallas at San Francisco – San Francisco (+6)
Atlanta at New England – Atlanta (+3.5)

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry.  All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point.  That’s betting pro ball for ya.  The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion.  regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%.  Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even.  Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter.  The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going.  Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards.  Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs).  Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back.  Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same.  The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not.  Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense.  The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3.  For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order.  Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!!  Yeah, I said it….

 

Week 6: Monday Night Football & Analysis

Well, we’ve come down to the end of week 6 and yet another bounce back week for me.  Tonight’s game will either cap me at 57% winners or 64% winners, either way, you should’ve made some money.

I don’t know what is going on in this league lately, maybe it’s the injuries, maybe it’s that some of these teams really did their home work in the coaching hires they’ve made and the rookies they’ve drafted but the league is super competitive this year.  18 teams hover at or around (higher/lower) the .500 mark by a game.  Now, you have 6 teams 2 games or more below .500 and 6 teams that are 2 games or more above .500 but it’s rather tight with more than half of the league.  Not to mention, a team like the 49ers have lost every game this year to go 0-6.  That might sound really bad, but take a look at how much they’ve lost by in their last 5 games and you may think differently about them, at Seahawks by 3, at home to the Rams by 2, at Cardinals by 3, at Colts by 3, at Redskins by 2.  That’s a helluva effort by Shanahan and his crew.

With that, lets go to some stats that I came across after breaking down my first 6 weeks of picks and let me tell you, there are some really odd trends.  Through the first 90 games:

ATS O/U ATS O/U
Thursday Night Sunday 1p
5-1 3-3 21-28-1 25-25
83% 50% 43% 50%
Sunday 4p Sunday Night
14-8 14-8 2-4 2-4
61% 61% 33% 33%
Monday Night Primetime
4-1-1 3-2-1 11-6-1 8-9-1
80% 60% 65% 47%
Bookend Nights Overall
9-2-1 6-5-1 46-42-2 47-42-1
82% 55% 52% 53%

There are my overall stats, pretty simplistic breakdown with the added bonus of seeing each set of games throughout the week.  The “Bookend Nights” are the combined record of the Thursday and Monday night games.  Pretty astonishing isn’t it?  I just love to see the trends when you breakdown my basic overall record to see where the strengths and weaknesses are in my picks.  That being said, I had some time to look at this breakdown even further:

Underdog Picks Road Dog Picks Home Dog Picks
22-9-1 71% 15-5-1 75% 7-4 64%
Favorite Picks Road Favorite Picks Home Favorite Picks
24-33-1 42% 8-13-1 38% 16-20 44%
Picks 7+ Points Picks 6.5 – 3 Points Picks 2.5 or Less Pts.
10-12 46% 24-23-2 51% 12-7 63%

As you can see here, I broke down my overall even farther, to the underdog and favorites in each pick as well as with 3 different spread categories.  I apparently LOVE the underdog picks and do very well in deciding on which underdog games will pay dividends.  The one jaw dropper I saw was my record with the road dogs.  75% winners on road dogs!  That’s insane!  Those are games not many bettors take and I’ve already bet on 21 of them, and pretty successfully.  Sadly, not so much on the favorites.  The one thing I’m jealous on is my one good buddies record on the games he picks to bet on with the favorites.  I think it’s obvious that I need to take some notes with him.

I also gave a point spread breakdown because there are games where you sit there, look at the line and go “man, if it was 6.5 instead of 7, I’d take it” among other lines scenarios.  Well, you can now look at my trends using that same thought process.  How successful I’ve been in selecting which spreads I’m better at deciding who’s going to cover.  I was actually shocked since the 2.5 point or less games are so hard to determine given that Vegas thinks the 2 teams at play are fairly equal, or at least that the road dog or road favorite is a bit more dominate even in the other teams house.  Nevertheless, I do pretty well with games that have under a 3 point spread.  But no you might want to know about the road dogs and favorites right?  Look no further:

RDog Picks 7+ Points RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
3-1 75% 8-3-1 73% 4-1 80%
RFav. Picks 7+ Points RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
0-3 0% 4-6-1 40% 4-4 50%
Dog Picks 7+ Points Dog Picks 6.5-3 Points Dog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
1-0 100% 3-4 43% 3-0 100%
Fav. Picks 7+ Points Fav Picks 6.5-3 Points Fav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
6-8 43% 9-10 47% 1-2 33%

As you saw, I’m a huge fan of the road dog and they help me win a good percentage of my games but I wanted to see what kinds of spreads I bet on them (RDog) with and the outcomes, as well as road favorites (Rfav.), the home dog picks (Dog), and home favorite picks (Fav.).  The numbers speak for themselves, road dog record, no matter what spread you’re getting, if I’m betting a road dog, you should be as well.  Same goes for the home dogs 7+ points and 2.5 points or less.  So far I’m undefeated there.

So there you have it, the complete breakdown of my picks.  You can see my strengths and weaknesses from the first 6 weeks of the season.  I hope to give you updates on these stats at the end of every month going forward.  Now, on to tonight’s Monday Night Football pick:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 8:30p (Titans -7.5, O/U: 48)

So let me get this straight, the Colts who are 2-3, who have a capable quarterback, receivers and running back are 7.5 point road dogs to the Titans who are without their stud rookie receiver and will start their leader, quarterback Marcus Mariota after sitting out a week with a hamstring issue?   Hamstrings are no joke and take some time to heal.  Mariota, even with a good offensive line, is known to scramble and make plays with his legs.  The Colts will look to keep him in the pocket and hit him low or at least wrap him up to the point where he tries to break free and possibly re-aggravate his hamstring injury.  He won’t have much help around him with injuries and DeMarco Murray having a bleak couple of weeks in rushing yards.  Jacoby Brissett has some of the tools that Andrew Luck has in regards to movement.  They both can move well inside and outside of the pocket, it’s the decision making that’s key.  Brissett has 60% completions this year and only 3 INT’s but just a measly 2 TD’s.  He hasn’t looked fantastic in the red zone with his arm but has made things happen with his 3 TD runs.  In the end, both defenses are in the bottom 3rd in the league, the Colts are worse but bad is bad.  I don’t expect this to be a shootout but I do expect the Colts to keep it close.  Take the Titans to win but the Colts to cover as road dogs in the under, 21-17.

Lastly, I want to wish my warmest regards to Aaron Rodgers.  I was devastated to hear about the broken collarbone.  I’m a huge Packer fan and he is our team.  I hope for a speedy recovery, we need ya 12!