2019 NFL Week 1: Sunday Games

The first full Sunday of games is upon us! We opened off with a sweet but nail biting cover with the Packers, lets continue that momentum in probably the hardest weeks to bet on NFL football.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings, U.S. Bank Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Vikings -3.5, O/U: 47)

Devonta Freeman is not as strong of a feature back as he once was years ago. Hampered by injuries, the Falcons had to go out and get him some insurance/backup to help with the load, in Ito Smith. They are stocked full at receiver power though with Jones, Ridley and Sanu. It’ll be tough to cover all 3 guys effectively. For the Vikings, Thielen had the NFL’s 4th most receptions last year with 113 while Diggs had a career high 102 catches. With Cook back 100%, the offense is at full capacity with weapons at Cousin’s disposal to match their strong defense. Take the Vikings to cover in the under, Vikings 24-20.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Dolphins +7, O/U: 40)

The Ravens are all in on revamping their offense and signed Ingram to lead their backfield as they’ve been searching to rediscover a talented back. With Jackson and Ingram’s running abilities, look for many RPO’s and read options to counter Jackson arm but don’t expect to see 300+ through the air as they lack heavily at receiver and don’t really have a true #1 guy there. The Dolphins saw how their Florida counterparts (Buccs) had successes with Fitzmagic however, they too are without a decent receiving corps and lack a true #1 guy on the outside. Having Drake carry the ball mixed with Balage helps but this one will probably be a snoozer. Take the Ravens to win but the Dolphins to cover in the under, Ravens 20-14.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets, MetLife Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Jets -2.5, O/U: 41)

Allen showed flashes of his potential all season last year and it was shocking given his supporting cast being below average. Don’t believe me? Don’t watch many Bills games? Watchin his game against the Viking last year. After offloading Shady McCoy, they’re looking to the impressive in camp and preseason rookie, Singletary, to take most of the workload along with Gore mentoring him up. Allen still doesn’t have anything to write home about in the receiving corps but he’ll make it work. The Jets went out and snatched up Bell after his drama with the Steelers last year where he sat out the whole year seeking a new contract. He will take some pressure off of young Darnold as there wasn’t much of a running game for him to rely on last year in his rookie season. They have some ok receivers but are thin on talent there. Take the Bills to cover in the over, Bills 27-18.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TIAA Bank Field, 1:00 PM, CBS (Jags +3.5, O/U: 50.5)

Losing Hunt didn’t seem to slow this offense as other guys stepped up and filled the roll nicely. Don’t get me wrong, he’s dynamic and offered you a lot of options when using him, but Williams is capable to doing similar things. Mahomes stunned in his first year starting (2nd year in the league) with 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring with 35.3 points per game (7 touchdowns) which is unbelievable! Reid had Shady McCoy signed to give another weapon to use in the backfield as he can be very shifty and elusive. Adding the Honey Badger for their secondary was a nice upgrade to their air defense. The Jags moved on from Bortles and signed Foles who had been great for the Eagles and even led them to a Super Bowl victory over the Patriots a few seasons ago. The last time he left the Eagles, he didn’t fair to well so we’ll see if he can keep his play up still having a decent supporting cast around him. They also added Conley from the Chiefs to help the receiving corps with the loss of Robinson to the Bears. Fournette still hasa bunch to prove since he hasn’t played to his potential and is reported to have worked hard this off season to improve his game and personal life. I can’t believe this game is only at 3.5 points. Take the Chiefs to win in the over, Chiefs 35-20.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 1:00 PM, FOX (Panthers +1.5, O/U: 49.5)

Goff resigned quietly to match the output he’s had the last few seasons under McVay (last year: 4,688 yards with 32 TD’s). Gurley, Woods, Cooks and Kupp are all healthy and they are all explosive. The offense especially suffered without Kupp. They added some veteran defensive pieces in Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle. Cam had shoulder surgery in the offseason, then had a scare with an ankle injury in the pre season but his supporting cast stays the same (CMC, Moore, Samuel, Olsen). Defense moves to a 3-4 so there could be a learning curve yet with that going into the season. Take the Rams to cover in the under, Rams 24-20.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, FirstEnergy Stadium, 1:00 PM, CBS (Browns -5.5, O/U: 45)

Mariotta still hasn’t started 16 games in a season which is problematic when talking about your franchise guy.  After a strong 2016, he’s had a rough go with a TD/INT ratio of 1/1 and barely cracks 3,000 when he does play most of the season. The Titans defense proved tough under new head coach Vrabel and will continue that trend this year.  The Browns added OBJ to the opposite side of the offense alongside former LSU teammate Landry.  They also will be led by Nick Chubb in the backfield with newly signed Hunt sitting 8 weeks on suspension from his time with the Chiefs.  Baker had a solid rookie season with a 2/1 TD/INT ratio, led the Browns to a handful of unforeseen wins given their 1-31 record the previous 2 seasons and even had the pull to get his OC and coach fired early in the season.  Take the Browns to cover in the under, Browns 27-13.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles, Lincoln Financial Field, 1:00 PM, FOX (Eagles -10, O/U: 44.5)

The Redskins will have Guice back after being lost all of last year with a knee injury.  AP was figured to be shuffled in with Guice and Thompson but as of Sunday morning, AP may be deactivated and the Skins will only suit 2 backs.  They are very young at receiver and have a very average quarterback in Keenam.  The Eagles will have Wentz back 100% and doubled down on his health by allowing Foles to fly the coup to the Jags to start there.  Desean Jackson is back in town and looking to continue what he does best in a high powered offense, take the tops off defenses.  Eagles also added depth in their backfield by signing Howard from the Bears and drafting Sanders from PSU with Sproles coming back for what seems to be his last season.  We have our first HUGE line on the young season.  Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 28-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks, CenturyLink Field, 4:05 PM, CBS (Seahawks -9.5, O/U: 44.5)

The Bengals are without star receiver Green for at least this week and maybe the next 2 which leaves them shorthanded in their air attack.  Mixon looked great in his rookie season with 1,100 yards and 8 TD’s even with injuries to their top offensive guys like Dalton and Eifert who were out for large chunks of the season.  Dalton and Eifert are back at 100% however.  The Seahawks were in desperate need of a turnaround seeing their defense slip from Legion of Boom to middle of the road.  They went out and traded for Clowney to add to the front/pass rush as Wagner still leads them.  Wilson has been consistent over his career and is finding himself with a running game that he can rely on again.  Take the Seahawks to cover in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers, StubHub Center, 4:05 PM, CBS (Chargers -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Luck’s retirement caught everyone off guard.  Luckily they had traded for Brissett a few years ago when Luck had nagging, reoccurring injuries that made him miss a bunch of games.  When Brissett played, he played fairly well.  In 2017, he played most of the year in Luck’s absence and piled up over 3,000 yards and had a 2/1 TD/INT ratio.  With Mack in his second season in the backfield, the addition of Funchess to the receiving corps and Ebron building on a career year last year (750 yards and 13 TD’s), look for the Colts to not miss much of a beat over Luck’s departure.  The Chargers however are missing key players in key roles.  No Gordon due to a holdout, no Williams who singed with the Raiders and no James on the defensive side of the ball with an injury.  Mix that with no Gates for the first time in 15 years and Rivers has an uphill climb to start the season.  Take the Colts to win in the over, Colts 24-21.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals, University of Phoenix Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Cards +3, O/U: 46.5)

The Lions had a rough first year under Patricia during his rookie campaign as head coach.  New additions will help the Lions get back on track with Flowers on the defensive side and Amendola on the offensive side.  Johnson will once again lead the backfield as he was one of the few bright spots on this offense last year during his rookie season as he averaged a massive 5.4 yards per carry.  Stafford will still have Golladay and Jones after Kearse went down with a potential career ending leg injury in the pre season.  The Cardinals drafted quarterbacks in back to back years in the first round.  As they selected the 5’10” Murray, they eventually then traded Rosen to the Dolphins.  Murray didn’t look fantastic in the pre season but with a great offensive mind like rookie head coach Kingsbury, he could flourish.  Johnson needs to get back to his 2016 self soon as he’s been ineffective the last few seasons though not all his fault as the offensive line hasn’t done it’s job either.  Adding Terrell Suggs on the defensive side of the ball is a great pass rushing pairing with Chandler Jones.  Take the Lions to win in the under, Lions 24-17.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Cowboys -7, O/U: 45.5)

The Giants are trying to fool everyone here.  Trading away start receiver OBJ to solely put the offense on Barkley given his 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in his spectacular rookie season.  The Giants are thin at receiver and now are relying on Sheppard as their #1 guy with Engram continuing to build on his successes at TE.  Question is, how long does Manning last before the impressive rookie Jones comes in?  The Cowboys spent the entire offseason talking about money.  With Zeke holding out and feuding with Owner Jerry Jones up until late last week, Zeke hasn’t been with the team all pre season.  Cowboys are assuring us that he is game ready.  Dak stayed quiet and poised that they will have a great year and it is promising with Cooper having a tremendous impact on the offense last year and Gallop looking great his rookie year along with the surprising emergence of Vander Esche in the middle of their defense, 2019 is looking up for the Boys.  Take the Cowboys to win in the over, Cowboys 31-20.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Raymond James Stadium, 4:25 PM, FOX (Buccs -1, O/U: 51)

Jimmy G is back 100% from his season ending knee injury and really nothing much has changed on his offense to improve the squad he left.  He looked good for the 9ers in 2017 ending the season going 5-0 after being traded but only lasted 3 games last year.  Receiving corps is still thin, there’s not really a #1 feature back behind Jimmy G and the defense struggled at times.  The Buccs ring Arians out of retirement as this could be Winston’s last chance to prove himself before his out as starter.  He loses Desean Jackson on the outside but still has Evans, Godwin and OJ Howard to throw to.  Barber and Jones will split the backfield but neither have looked like the feature back the team needs.  Take the Buccs to win in the under, Buccs 24-20.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots, Gillette Stadium, 8:20 PM, NBC (Patriots -5.5, O/U: 49.5)

Brown and Bell both gone, 2 explosive players.  Enter in Conner (973yards and 12 TD’s rushing) who proved he could give the Steelers just as good a chance to win games as Bell with less gruff and the emergence of JuJu (111 catches and 7 TD’s in 2018) and James Washington on the outside and it’s as if the Steelers really won’t seem to miss a beat and just offloaded a bunch of drama.  Steelers also have been rebuilding their defense through the draft with TJ Watt a few years ago and now Devin Bush Jr just this season.  Brady loses Gronk and will be without rookie standout Harry to kickoff the season against the Steelers in which he is a perfect 8-0 at Gillette against them.  Brady will always be a quarterback that makes hero’s out of guys you’ve never heard of but this year will be different with Josh Gordon being back, Edelman, Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas and now Antonio Brown in the receiving corps.  A major bright spot last year was Michel becoming the feature back as a rookie and looks to have that locked up for as long as he plays well.  The only thing against the Patriots at home is that they’re known to start seasons a little slow, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Take the Steelers to cover in the loss, in the over, Patriots 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • LA Rams at Carolina – LA Rams (-1.5)
  • Atlanta at Minnesota – Atlanta (+4)
  • Indianapolis at LA Chargers – Indianapolis (+6.5)
  • Pittsburgh at New England – Pittsburgh (+6)
  • Houston at New Orleans – Houston (+7)

Week 15: Saturday Games

Houston vs. New York Jets, 4:30p, NFLN (Jets +7, O/U: 44.5)

Houston had been on a tear with a 9 game winning streak until the Colts messed that up. They look to rebound against the lowly Jets. Despite giving up nearly 400 yards last week, the Texans have the 5th best defense in terms of points allowed and 5th best against the run. This bodes well for them given that the Jets pass game is virtually non existent. A surprising stat is that the Texans are 3-1 on grass this year. Pair that up with Watson’s 112.9 QBR in his last 7 games with 13 TDs and 2 picks alongside Hopkins 5 game road streak catching a touchdown, it makes for a dangerous setup against the Jets.

Speaking of the Jets, Darnold led his team with under 2 minutes left to beat the Bills and snap a 6 game losing streak. Neither rookie quarterback looked all that impressive however after starting with so much hype but failing on his face since week 3, Darnold needed something to gain the confidence back. With the team needing receivers, running back, a defense, the Jets will likely struggle often today.

Take the Texans to cover in the under, Texans 24-10.

Cleveland vs. Denver, 8:30p, NFLN (Broncos -1.5, O/U: 47)

This game feels like a trap given the national following the Browns have accrued. Baker Mayfield has come on strong as of late, leading this team with grit. The Browns are 3-1 in their last 4 with five wins against the Falcons and Panthers. Nick Chubb has also been on a roll with 5 straight games scoring on the ground. Their defense has had individual successes in the form of sacks and picks. Garrett has 7.5 of his 13.5 sacks in the last 7 games along with Randall picking 2 of his 4 passes in the last 3 games.

The Broncos have also been 3-1 in their last 4 games, also against great teams (Steelers and Chargers). Even with the big wins, Keenum has had 3 straight games with less than 200 yards. Phillip Lindsay has been hot and cold all season but still is starring at a 1,000 yard season and double digit rushing touchdowns. Von Miller has led the Broncos defensive resurgence with 9.5 of his 13.5 sacks in the last 8 games.

2nd cousins Bradley Chubb and Nick Chubb won’t be taking it easy on each other as both have eyes on the playoffs.

Take the Browns to cover in the over, Browns 27-24.

Week 3: Thursday Night Football

Last week was horrible for yours truly.  One of my worst weeks since picking winners.  This week, we will right the ship.  We have a toughie to kick off this week so lets get to it.

New York at Cleveland, 8:20p, NFLN (Browns -3, O/U: 41)

New York comes into this matchup being brought back down to earth last week by the Dolphins, following their Rookie quarterbacks huge first win in his first game in Detroit in week one.  Sam Darnold looked more like a rookie last week but with more picks than touchdowns however he still had poise and threw for over 300 yards despite the turnovers and lack of running game.

The Browns are still looking for their first win and they can just taste it.  No, they’re not salivating at the thought of the beer lockers being slung open if they win, they literally tasted a victory.  The Browns entered the fourth quarter holding a 12-3 lead giving up 15 unanswered points before Tyrod Taylor launched the ball to the back of the end zone and Antonio Callaway making a huge grab to tie the game at 18, with a pending extra point.  The Browns, rarely in this position to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, ended up missing the extra point which would’ve given them a 19-18 lead.  They’re tired of losing, tired of coming up just short and a hungry in front of their fans, but keep in mind, it’s still the Browns.

The line is surprising given the Browns usually finding ways to lose games and they’re rarely favorites.  The moneyline scares me a bit with the Jets getting +150 and the Browns getting -170 but I’m still rolling with the safe bet, taking the Jets to cover and win in the under, Jets 21-17.

I feel for you Brownies, I want you to win (just not this week) but like a friend has perfectly put it, until you show me you can win, I will bet against you.  Happy Thursday football night, good betting and don’t forget to #beatyourbookie.

Week 1: Monday Night Football

It’s absolutely remarkable how Vegas can set these lines so close to the outcome of the games. Makes you wonder what the secret is, how much homework they do, what kind of insiders they have, or if there’s a formula or algorithm. I had two losses, 1 win and a push within zero to three points of the spread.  Four of the sixteen games could’ve gone either way with a late field goal.  I also had another five games where a touchdown either way could’ve changed the outcome for my bets.  That’s nine of sixteen games where one score (field goal or touchdown) could’ve swung my bets positive or negatively.  I’ve been following lines for  a few years now and I am still amazed by how close these lines are generated to the actual scores of games.  Let the conspiracy theorists converge!

As far as Sunday’s games, I’ve well documented my own 1pm games as mediocre and 2018 has started out no different there. 4-4 against the spread with two games very close from changing that in the 4th quarter of their games until late mistakes happened (Colts & Giants).  I called for a Browns win and they nearly pulled it off to give their fans free Bud Light on opening day no thanks to TJ Watt!  Still, it’s the first season since 2004 that the Browns haven’t lost the opener, so things are looking up in “The Land”.

I bounced back nicely in the 4pm games going 3-0-1. I called the Chargers struggle at home continuing from last season, AP looking good in DC and the Broncos starting the new chapter with Keenum (even though it was a push).

Sunday night was disappointing as far as covering the spread. Seven points is a lot to give up in any game, especially since you don’t know how the teams are going to do in full game action.  I also must admit that I underestimated the Khalil Mack factor.  He made his presence known in that first half, especially when Aaron Rodgers was knocked out before the half.  Still, if that line had performed like they did after the half, all game long, we probably would’ve seen a bigger win and possible cover for the Packers at home, so I’m sticking by my bet and it was just unfortunate to see the line play a poor first half and Rodgers missing nearly all of the second.

I finished Sunday with a 7-6-1 (54%) record, with the potential to pull out a 60% winner’s week in week 1 so I’m optimistic and anxious to watch these games. Now, on to Monday night’s picks…

N.Y. Jets at Detroit, 7:10 PM, ESPN (Lions -7, O/U: 45)

I know what you’re thinking, the Jets are starting rookie Same Darnold, the Lions will blow them out on the road. For that, I have to steal one from Lee Corso, not so fast my friend!  Darnold won that job outright from a guy who’s looked good in the pre-season after not playing for 2 years due to a horrific knee injury (Bridgewater) and a guy beyond his prime, which wasn’t that much of a prime to begin with (McCown).  Don’t mistake him for just some rookie either.  He was taken because he was good and seemed to be the most poised and prepared to start for a team right out of the gate.  The only question was how high would his ceiling be?

As for the rest of the team, they went out and signed Isaiah Crowell to help Powell in the backfield, Terrell Pryor and Andre Roberts to the receiving corps, and Spencer Long as starting center to help give Darnold protection and Weapons to use. The defensive side of the ball saw Trumaine Johnson and Morris Claiborne signed to help the secondary as well as Avery Williamson to start at middle linebacker.

The Lions pretty much go unchanged other than LeGarrette Blount being signed with rookie Kerryon Johnson to compete with Theo Riddick for carries to improve the ground game that Detroit has lacked in Reggie Bush (even he wasn’t a great rusher for them). Stafford has strung together nearly a decades worth of 4,000 plus yard seasons and doesn’t seem to stop that trend given Tate and Jones tearing it up on the outsides.  Jim Bob Cooter has drawn up a pretty exciting offense these last couple of seasons, let’s see what he can do with a fully functional offense.  Devon Kennard and Christian Jones where brought in to boost the linebacking crew and to improve the defense against the run, since they were near the bottom of the league in rushing allowed.  It’s not hard to do when you lose guys like Suh and Nata from your front.

Look for this to be close but don’t be surprised if the Jets keep it interesting. Take the Jets to cover getting 7 but lose to the Lions in the over, Lions 28-24.

L.A. Rams at Oakland, 10:20 PM, ESPN (Raiders +5, O/U: 47.5)

The Rams return for their second season under head coach Sean McVay who brought this team back to life after a dismal 4-12 first season in LA, with an 11-5 finish but a Wild Card loss to the Falcons. With Sammy Watkins leaving us fans thought that they’d still have an arsenal of guys to through to with then rookie Cooper Kupp looking pretty good in his first season but then we all were shocked when Brandin Cooks was picked up.  McVay wanted to make sure that Goff could replicate his 2017 success with having numerous guys to throw to on the outside.  The offense will continue to improve under McVay as he’s being compared to the likes of Kyle Shanahan, and having a genius like mind when it comes to the offensive game.  Veteran defensive pickups like Suh, Talib and Peters are sure to bolster a defense already feared from the likes of Donald.  Rams went all in on this team the last few years and their fans are being rewarded with the fantastic play and now early contenders for the NFC Championship predictions.

The Raiders made some offseason moves of their own, while one could’ve started a riot, some other veteran signings were poised to being back some of that offensive spark they had two seasons ago. Jordy Nelson and Doug Martin are seen as offering more to stabilize the offense and offer different options for John Gruden, who has not been on the sidelines as the head of a football club in a decade.  Justin Ellis and Tank Carradine were brought in to strengthen the defensive front while Tahir Whitehead and Emmanuel Lamur were to strengthen the outside of the box/front 8 of the defense.  Marcus Gilchrist and Leon Hall were brought in to help the secondary, adding to the overall presence of veteran leadership.

The one move that has been the buzz of the team, however, was the trading of Khalil Mack to the Bears for a few first round picks and more. Mack, who was looking for a new deal, seemingly was upset with how the Raiders were conducting their side of the negotiations and how little respect was given to Mack when contract negotiations were being discussed.  The Bears received immediate return after showing Mack some contract love in his first game as a Bear, and the Raiders were left looking like cheapskates and a laughing stock of the league for letting their best player go over a worthy contract negotiation, questioning Gruden and his philosophy.

The locker room has to be devastated and especially for the defensive side for the Raiders. The rams with all of the confidence in the world are going to Oakland as five point favorites.  Look for the Rams to win handedly and cover the five point spread in the over, Rams 38-17.

Don’t forget, Colin Cowherd had the Jets at +6.5 in his Blazinn 5 and while the Wise Men didn’t agree, I feel like it’s still a quality bet being given a whole touchdown. I’m also looking to get back above 50% on 7+ point picks.  Hope your Sunday was fruitful.  Pray to the football gods for Darnold that you can #beatyourbookie Monday night, and catapult me to 60% winners for the week.  Good luck to all!

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Starting the week with a win on Thursday is something I’ve done quite a bit this year.  Getting that first win sets the tone for my picks for the rest of the week.  It’s not that I’ll be a little more risky with my picks after a Thursday win or more cautious if I had lost but the confidence is stronger and there’s less second guessing.  I’m on my road to magical numbers and I haven’t lost sight of the overall goal (56%-60%) winners.

I told you the Steelers are just a different team at home, however I didn’t expect the cover win by 23!  Mariota didn’t look too comfortale early and that ruined whatever confidence he had coming into the ketchup bottle.  If you liked that pick and took it, you’re going to love these.  On to Sunday’s games:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)

The Bears are coming off a shocking loss against the Packers.  Mitch-a-palooza had to strap up his work belt extra tight given that his rushing game was non-existant.  Howard had 15 carries for 54 yards (3.6 yards per carry) but one rush snapped off for 25 which puts his other 14 carries at just over 2 yards per carry.  Bears can’t put that much on Trubisky’s shoulders and expect to win.  The Lions had trouble putting the Browns away last week.  Being tied with the Browns heading into the 4th quarter at home, has me nervous about them along with both teams record against the spread (5-4) and the Lions away ATS record (3-1) and the Bears home ATS record (4-1).  Take the Lions to cover in the over, 27-20.  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7.5, O/U: 37)

The Browns come into this game with one of the lowest scoring offenses (15.9) in the league while facing one of the best defenses who has allowed the least amount of points to it’s opponents (14.9).   The Browns held it together for three strong quarters agains the Lions in Detroit last week which tells me that they still repect their coach and will play hard, even being winless.  The Jaguars pulled out an OT win against the Chargers who are a very strong road team.  Bortles slipped into his old was with low completion percentage and more picks than TD’s but were able to steal a win.  Take the Jaguars to cover in the under, 24-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers +2, O/U: 38)

The Packers picked up a crucial win against the Bears last week, and right when I wrote off Hundley.  Unfortunately for the Packers, Montgomery and Jones are both likely to miss this game meaning Jamaal Williams will have to fill in, which he did very successfully last week.  Baltimore had a bye week but the week before, they nearly knocked off the Titans in their own house.  This coming from a team that just seems very bland and not really excitting, especially on the road.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2, O/U: 37.5)

In a league where your quarterback is the most valuable player on your team (and highest paid player), it’s inheriantly important that they stay healthy.  With Palmer and Watson out, it becomes a battle between Stanton and Savage.  Get ready for 50% completions and a bunch of running.  These kinds of games make picking a winner very hard.  You litterally have to go through the rosters and base it off of the position matchup and then if you’re still baffled, go to coaching.  Here, I like the coaching and the offense of the Cardinals so take them to cover in the under, 17-13.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 45.5)

This is an interesting matchup, one to watch.  Both teams are 7-2, 6-3 ATS, at the top of their divisions, and have exceeded their pre-season expectations from day one.  The Vikings had doneit with Sam Bradford in the first game but with Case Keenum ever since, which is impressive.  The Rams success started with the change at head coach which seemed to have sparked Jared Goff.  Both defenses are solid but expect this to be more of a shootout.  Again, we have to matchup the QB’s and start spelling out who’s better where.  The Rams just have a stronger team and will cover in the over, 31-27.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 51.5)

Nothing to surprise you with here about the Saints.  They have returned to their offensive prowess but also added some solid running to their game.  Drew Brees isn’t throwing as many passes but still is effective while he has Ingram and Kamra behind him enjoying great seasons especially since Ap has left town.  The Redskins followed up their huge win in Seattle by hanging along another of the leagues better teams, the Vikings but ultimately losing.  The Redskins have a commitee backfield which is tough to get consistency running the ball.  Take the Saints to cover in the under, 31-17.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +10.5, O/U:+45.5)

So this is where the Giants are at, they lost to the (at the time) winless 49ers.  Eli kept it together and didn’t throw a pick but his defense (which is supposed to be their bright spot), broke down badly.  Run game, pass game, the 49ers just had their way with the Giants defense.  The Chiefs had to deal with Zeke who whittled their defense down for 27 carries.  Andy Reid off of bye weeks is one of if not the best at coming away with a win.  Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +1, O/U: 42)

The matchup that was supposed to happen week one is finally on 11 weeks later.  Given the way they both have played this year, I wouldn’t be mad if they just took another bye week.  They both have disappointing offenses and to demonstrate how this game with go, grease your hand up with butter and try to turn a door nob.  Take the Buccs to cover in the under, 17-14.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 41)

The Bills are turning to their rookie quarterback (seems to be a growing trend lately), marking his first start and road game seeing action.  McCoy hasn’t been his normal self.  The Chargers have been pressing opponents lately, at home and on the road (mostly on the road).  The Chargers nearly stole one in Jacsonville last week.  This week the Chargers take over the rookie with their dangerous pass rush and to cover in the under, Chargers 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -2.5, O/U: 38)

The Bengals just haven’t looked right all year.  The frustrations seems to boil a few weeks ago when Green was throwing haymakers in the first half.  Dalton looked better this week but with no running game, they can’t setup defenses for the pass.  The Broncos are another example of why quarterbacks are important to your team.  Not just important, vital!  Siemianhasn’t worked since last year and to be so desperate to bring back Osweiller, says a lot about how they feel about their QB situation.  I feel like the Bronceos defense won’t allow another loss at home.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 16-10.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (MC), 4:25p (Raiders +7.5, O/U: 54.5)

Mexico City will see their first NFL game in live action and it’s two well respected and talented teams.  I said this earlier and actually called it in my first game this year, I like the Patriots but 7 or more points are reserved for team like the Browns, Giants, Colts and maybe even the 49ers.  Neutral field games for the Patriots (basically all of their super bowls), have mostly all been close but it is Tom Brady we’re talking about.  The Raiders  had a slip up in the beginning with Carr missing some games but are back on track with a couple of wins strunge together.  Big bets are on the Pats and this being a neutral field, makes it that much tougher.  Take the Raiders to cover but loss in the under, Pats 24-21.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30p (Cowboys +6, O/U: 48)

The Eagles come into this one as one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL.  Carson Wentz and his new additions have been lights out and the defense has been quite impressive as well, but offense always gets the head lines.  The Eagles have shown consistency week in and week out and will continue to do so this week.  The Cowboys have been on the Zeke roller coaster every week with news he’d be either in or out of the headlines.  Well, Zeke is finally going to serve those 6 weeks and the ‘Boys will be down Sean Lee as well, whose the go to guy or the quarterback of the defense.  This all coming as the season takes a turn to the finish line.   Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 had an amazing start.  Four weeks in, he was 15-5 (75% winners) but have calmed to a very respectable 30-20 (60%) but he is still picking gem weeks.  He really likes Chiacago becasue he’s been burnt by the Lions before.  Some advice, when I agree with betting on a team with Colin, my record is 21-10 (68% winners).  This week, we’ll call them locks, Packers and Eagles.  I actually would bet HEAVY on the Eagles if you get them anywhere near his line but even at 7 or less really.  Here are his picks/lines from Friday:

  • Detroit at Chicago – Chicago (+3)
  • Cincinnati at Denver – Denver (-2.5)
  • Tampa Bay at Miami – Tampa Bay (+3)
  • Baltimore at Green Bay – Green Bay (+2)
  • Philadelphia at Dallas – Philadelphia (-3.5)

 

 

Week 10: Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Thursday nights game was close and I nearly hit on the score exactly.  We knew that the game was going to score in the under.  Both defenses are pretty good with the Seahawks being the obvious better team defensively.  Stanton came out as a shocker by besting Wilson in yards but that’ll happen when you throw it 47 times (even though he only completed 24 of them).  I was surprised that the bruiser of a back, AP, was only held to 29 yards but still had 21 carries.  That number just shocks me, I mean, 1.4 yards per carry is what he left the game with.  I’m astounded by that.  I guess you can only bet he’ll have a great game every other week.  Nonetheless, we ended up pushing another game, bringing the total on the year to 6 pushes.  Hopefully the rest of the week doesn’t hinge on whether we could’ve had a good week with this game being a cover or not.  With that said, here’s Sunday’s games:

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills +3, O/U: 48)

The Saints look to continue their high flying offense on the road but we all know that usually isn’t a guarantee.  The Bills look to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets last week.  Some feel as though the Bills will come out swinging because of that, but the Saints have a half presentable defense this year.  Take the Saints in the under, 27-20.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears -4.5, O/U: 37.5)

Brett Hundley hasn’t looked like the quarterback that the Packers thought they drafted.  If he’s the guy that they thought would one day be in line to succeed Rodgers, they’re in trouble.  Colin Kaepernick would’ve been the more sensible solution, even a week after seeing Hundley’s first start.  The Bears have turned to Mitch-a-polooza in Chicago where he’s looked pretty good for being a guy who played football at North Carolina.  Their defense is coming around too.  Take the Bears to cover in the under, 21-13.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -10.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Lions still seemed to be firing on all cylinders lately.  They actually showed flashes of a running game.  Stafford has always been great and he’ll continue that.  For the Browns…..well……it’s the Browns.  Take the Lions in the under, 31-10.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +10, O/U: 45)

The Steelers tend to play Jekyll and Hyde when playing at home and on the road (worse on the road).  Their defense has been the surprise of the team this year.  They went into Detroit 2 weeks ago and came away the shocking victors.  The Colts have been, well, underwhelming, and that’s not because they’ve screwed me over in 4 of the 5 games I took them in.  They have a highly touted former Patriots backup (which seems to be a thing lately), but without a new offensive line, he could end up like Andrew Luck, who’s prognoses has gone from, back in a few weeks to career ending injury.  Take the Steelers to cover in the over, 31-17. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -5, O/U: 41)

This should be a really good matchup.  The Chargers have been noticeably better on the road than at home and actually have looked more comfortable.  They started 0-4 with 3 of those games at home, 3-1 in their last 4 (2-1 on the road).  Fournette is back this week after his one game team levied suspension.  Despite missing last week, he’s 6th in rushing.  If the Chargers can slow down Fournette, they’ll have a real shot at beating a team that has been a real surprise in the league this year.  This could be a real good chance at another push for me but I think that the Chargers could take this one.  Take the Chargers to cover in the over, 24-21.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers +1.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Jets are still impressing, especially after taking the Bills to task last week.  Their efforts have kept them in the hunt for a playoff spot (2.5 games back of the AFC East leading Patriots), even for a 4-5 team.  McCown has kept the ball in pretty safe hands while the running game has been keeping defenses honest with a pair of older backs.  The Buccs haven’t lived up to expectations this year and now their young star QB is hurt and will miss a few weeks.  After watching Hardknocks this year, I could’ve sworn this team could’ve turned some heads but now D-JAx is back to attitude he showed Philly on the way out and Fitzpatrick is leading the team.  The line moved 1 point in favor of the Jets since yesterday and I can’t believe that Fitz helped move that line.  Take the Jets to roll in the over, 31-17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -5.5, O/U: 40.5)

What’s there to say about the Bengals? A team that once had really good regular seasons but fizzled when it came time for playoffs, to a team that just can’t do much of anything. Of their 3 wins, only 1 came against a team at our above .500 (Bills).  The Titans have been a sleeper team to watch all season. They have statement wins against the Jags and Seahawks and are vying to stay atop of their division. Take the Titans to cover in the over, 27-20.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins +1.5, O/U: 40.5)

In the Case Keenum parts of the season, the Vikings have surprisingly been able to survive with a 5-2 record. While their record may be impressive it’s echo they came against that’s as equally unimpressive (Buccs, Bears,  Packers,  Ravens, Browns).  Keenum’s first test comes against a Redskins team flying high off of last week’s win in Seattle. Look for the Redskins offense to be on, as Cousins did his best Aaron Rodgers impression last week. Also look for their pass rush and coverage team too suffocate Keenum. How are the Vikes road favorites in this one? Take the Redskins to cover in the over with a win, 24-21.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -12, O/U: 45.5)

This line rose a point since Friday so that just tells you how Vegas feels about the Texans. They looked bad in week one with Savage and they still looked horrible with him last week losing against the Colts! Talk about surprises in the NFL, the Rams turnaround from last year is amazing. We knew Gurley would have another good season but for Goff to look completely different is the real shock. Now he has better weapons than last year but it’s definitely the change in mindset of this team from their new coach that has them flying. Take the Rams to win handedly in the under, 27-10.


Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons, 4:25p (Falcons -3, O/U: 48.5)

The Falcons may have one of the best offenses in the league but they just can’t pull away from opponents in their games. Just when you thought they get a decent lead, it’s squandered away late and they have to claw on the 4th. Their schedule up to this point shows the struggle of this season (wins: Bears, Packers, Lions, Jets / losses: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Panthers).  The ‘Boys will be without the only “boy” on their roster (Elliott) as it looks like he finally will be serving his 6 game suspension. They’ll still have some success given the veterans on their roster and the talented Dak Prescott under center. They’ve beaten some really good teams in the last 2 weeks (Chiefs & Redskins) but losing Zeke is huge.  The Falcons will be able to build a lead through the air of their defense can hold the boys on offense. Take the Falcons to cover the in the over, 31-27.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 42)

This one should be an interesting game.  I’m not kidding you, interestingly bad. These offenses are in shambles but their defenses have kept them in games. I don’t have many whimsical stats for you but the excitement of possibly seeing Jimmy Garoppolo is alive and could breathe life into this team if he eventually takes the field today. Take the 49ers to cover in the under, 14-13.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 8:30p (Broncos +7, O/U: 44.5)

The line has come down to 7 which makes this a near “must bet” game. I know Denver has played the Patriots well in the last few years but the had one of the best QB’s to lace them up leading them.  This offense is lackluster, and have been flat all season long. Osweiler got the nod to start last week and it didn’t go very well and while he may have beaten the Patriots the last time Blake faced them, basically all of his key weapons have some sort of nagging injuries and there’s a bunch of tape on his game and if anyone can scour tape and magnify flaws of a bad QB, it’s Belichick and the Pats.  Brady and the Pats are showing everyone how you follow up a Super Bowl win, starting the next session 6-2 with wins like the Saints game in New Orleans.  Don’t expect much to change for them in this game. They’re going to want to get on the board fast and often. Take the Patriots to cover in the over, 31-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Minnesota -1
  • LA Chargers +4
  • Buffalo +2.5
  • Tampa Bay +2.5
  • Dallas +3

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment.  Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball?  My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks.  I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season.  Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much.  Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite?  Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game?  Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game.  As long as they keep from turning the ball over.  The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season.  I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game.  Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara.  Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
  • Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
  • LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
  • Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

 

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