NFL Week 2: Thursday Night Football Prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 8:20 PM, NFLN (Panthers -7, O/U: 48.5)
Jameis Winston couldn’t seem to get out of his own way last week against the 49ers. He accounted for all 4 of the Buccs turnovers including 3 interceptions, which two were brought back for touchdowns. Bruce Arians seems to have a short memory with Winston so far, keeping him as a starter for tonight. Ronny Jones III had a solid opening game to his sophomore campaign as he tries to solidify the back who will get the biggest workload. Jones went 75 yards on 13 carries while also catching a pass for 18 yards. Cam Newton had a solid outing to start the season against the Rams. He had a hard time moving the ball through the air, averaging less than 10 yards per completion. Panthers fans however, got to enjoy watching another stellar performance from Christian McCaffrey who had over 200 yards from scrimmage, leading the team in rushing and receiving, and had 2 rushing scores. Tonight’s game will mark Gerald McCoy’s first game against his old team since he had spent his first 9 years in the league with Tampa Bay. The thing that hurt the Panthers last week was giving the Rams short field drives early in the game. They will not drop 2 home games in back to back weeks. Take the Panthers to cover in the win, in the under, Panthers 27-17.

NFL Week 1 Recap with Splits

It was a crazy first week with some fairly predictable outcomes and some shockers.  To make it clear, these are based on my predictions.  We’ll quickly run through them both.

Predictable:

  1. A healthy Aaron Rodgers beats the Bears and the so-so Trubisky.
  2. Vikings defense tough at home.
  3. Bills going into MetLife and stealing one with Singletary looking good!
  4. Chiefs blowing out the Jags on only being a -3.5 favorite.  How this wasn’t everyone’s “lock of the week” I’ll never understand.
  5. Andrew Luck-less Colts covering on a big spread for a Chargers team that barely has a home fan base.  Always feels like a neutral field.
  6. Texans covering but the Saints breaking a 5 year opening game winless draught, however, I was sweating bullets with less than 3 to go, what an ending to that game!
  7. Finally, “The Raiders” (in my Boomer Raiders voice), wining outright at home.  The AB drama left, the fans made that known with “F*** AB” chants throughout the game.  Josh Jacobs looked awesome in his debut.  Watch out for the Raiders this year.

Shocking:

  1. The low scoring affair between the Packers and Bears.
  2. The Dolphins looking like they got caught in a Whalers net.  DOA to the stadium.
  3. Foles breaking his clavicle in his first half of football with the Jags (on a TD pass of course).
  4.  Browns disappointing home opener after all the preseason hype.
  5. Eagles allowing a TD in the last minute of the game to ruin this bet……thanks….
  6. Bengals kept the pace with the Seahawks in Seattle.
  7. Arizona clawing back into that game in the 4th.  The first 3 quarters was how I saw that whole game going when writing my prediction.  This game also robbed me of a win on the predictions…..grrr….Could’ve been a stellar week at 11-5 if not for the last minute of this and the Eagles game…but that is NFL betting for you.
  8. Steelers flopping in New England & New England coming out guns blazing after their last few season openers being fairly close games.
  9. Texans rushing game with Hyde and Johnson combining for 19 carries for 140 yards (7.4 yards per carry).
  10. The ending to that Texans/Saints game….I haven’t picked my jaw up yet, wow!  Fun game!

Week 1 is now in the books, hit your waiver wire to get rid of the scrubs that looked like garbage for your fantasy team.  9-7 (56%) is a pretty good start for week one.  56% is where we want the baseline but always are looking to finish as high above that mark as possible.  Look for my NFL Week 2: Thursday Night Football prediction Thursday afternoon/early evening.  Check out week 1’s results and the splits on my picks below to see where you might take my advise or not going forward.

NFL Week 1 Results.png

NFL Week 1 Results Splits.jpg

NFL Week 1: Monday Night Football

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 7:10 PM, ESPN (Saints -6.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Texans made some moves this offseason to help Lamar Miller and the rushing game and it proved necessary as Miller is lost this season before the preseason ended to a knee injury. They traded for Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, who are a good enough tandum to be effective enough. They also valued Watson’s blindside (Tunsil) more than a second elite pass rusher (Clowney). The Saints had back to back disappointing losses in the playoffs to end their season, last year on a brutal non call PI. Not a bunch changed on their roster but with Murray replacing Ingram and Cook coming in for a hole at TE coming off of a great year with Oakland should keep their offense on track. Saints end a 5 year opening week winless drought by winning but take the Texans to cover in the over, Saints 31-27.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, 10:20 PM, ESPN (Raiders +3, O/U: 42.5)

The Broncos have been waiting for years and finally, they have someone to lead their offense in Flacco. Philip Lindsay is back 100% from his broken wrist in the last game of last year, building off an amazing performance as an undrafted rookie. Flacco will have two great young receivers in Sutton and Hamilton to throw to as well as veteran Sanders. The defense pretty much stayed the same, should continue to dominate. The Raiders were mired by the AB drama between the frostbitten feet, helmet issues and GM/fines/contract issues, they still showed on HBO’S “Hard Knocks” that they had still worked hard despite all of that and played fairly well fitting their pre season games. Impressive undrafted rookie Kellan Doss comes back from his week on the Jaguars practice squad to sign a decent deal to be on the 52 man roster to fill in for AB’s spot. He will see plenty of targets after his impressive pre season. Josh Jacobs was drafted to be the feature back for the offense and from what he showed in his limited carries in the pre season, we’re in for a treat. I may be a bit high on them but take the Raiders to cover in the upset win in the under, Raiders 21-20.

Week 15: Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -3.5, O/U: 54.5)

The Chargers are putting Melvin Gordon on the game day watch to see if he’ll suit up or miss another game.  If Gordon can’t go, Eckler will once again fill in.  Rivers played masterfully in the first meeting this year between the teams, at home but still lost by 4.  His play has evolved over the last 14 weeks and he’s taken care of the ball this year (29 td’s and only 6 int’s).  Rivers and Keenan Allen have connected on big scoring plays the last 5 weeks and have really been hitting their strides.  Lets not forget their defense, who is also hitting a stride in their own right.

The Chiefs have had back to back weeks of close games but wins.  Since Hunt was released, they’ve had to rely on numerous backs to fill in, one being former future back of the team, Spencer Ware but will be without him tonight due to a neck strain and concussion from last week.  A new addition to the Chiefs will be on the sidelines as they signed the newly released Kelvin Benjamin.  He will suit up tonight but as we can imagine, will be limited in his role even with Tyreek Hill dealing with an injured foot.  Let’s also not forget how reckless Mahomes has been the last few weeks with his passes, he’s been great but he’s also thrown a few picks that weren’t the best of decisions.

What may make up your mind are the numbers you see here:

Chargers ATS: 7-6, Road ATS: 5-1

Chiefs ATS: 8-4-1, Home ATS: 3-3

This will be a battle all night long.  The Chargers are an unbelievable road team and the Chiefs can still score 30 without Hunt but both will be fighting for the AFC West and a top seed in the playoffs, so I would expect Gordon to play such an important game.  In the end, it will come down to who’s running game will keep the opponents offense off the field in the 4th quarter?  Take the Chargers to cover in the upset win, in the over, Chargers 31-28.

#beatyourbookie

Week 14: Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville at Tennessee (Titans -5.5, O/U: 37.5)

Totally forgot today was Thursday, true story. Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 17-10.

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Sunday Games

Arizona at Kansas City, 1:00p, FOX (Chiefs -15.5, O/U: 50)

These games are always tough to put money on but the Chiefs have beaten better teams by two touchdowns. The issue with the Cardinals is their offense and the lack of points being scored. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 38-18.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets -7.5, O/U: 38)

This game isn’t going to be pretty with McCown in for an injured Darnold and Allen coming back from his concussion. Allen gives the Bills the best chance to win obviously because he has been the jack of all trades given he led his team in rushing up until his injury. Take the Bills to cover and win in the under, Bills 17-14.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -3, O/U: 48)

Reports out of Jacksonville state that the locker room is pissed off and will play as such being on a four game slide. Fournette is scheduled to make his return this week. Luck has been on fire this season and his much much much improved offensive line hasn’t allowed him to be sacked in the last 3 weeks. That truly gives us a sense as to what Luck can do with time in the pocket even without big name receivers. This is one of the games of the week to watch. Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 24-20.

New England at Tennessee, 1:00p, CBS (Titans +7, O/U: 47.5)

It’s a big spread on the road to cover. If at home, this spread would say that the Patriots would be favored by 13. I had a hard time with this given how inconsistent the Titans have been this year. Other things to consider, Gronk is out for Brady and the Titans have been tough against the run. It’s hard to go against Brady/Belichick so don’t, take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 24-14.

New Orleans at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals +6, O/U: 54)

The Saints are coming off of a big time win last week at home that saw them start off HOT but completely cool off in the 2nd half but still held off the high powered Rams offense. The Bengals line many good, not great, teams play so much better at home in front of their fans. Andy Dalton had played well this year but can fall under the spell of the turnover bug but rarely does so at home. No Green to throw to will limit this offense. I think the line is fare. Take the Saints to cover in the win in the over, Saints 31-24.

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3, O/U: 51)

Fitzmagic is back and looked about as good as he did before Winston came off suspension. The defense still had trouble stopping teams and the Redskins have looked good with the resurrection of AP in the backfield and field general Alex Smith moving the offense. The Redskins pass rush has looked good in recent weeks and will continue that trend this week. Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-21.

Atlanta at Cleveland, 1:00p, FOX (Browns +6, O/U: 51)

The Browns are in disarray even though they’re scoring, their defense isn’t playing to the caliber they’re used to and they are now facing their third high powered offense in 3 weeks. Julio Jones is finally on the score sheet which will give him more motivation to get in again today. Take the Falcons to cover in the over, Falcons 35-24.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00p, FOX (Bears -7.5, O/U: 44)

The Lions looked atrocious on offense last week, allowing Stafford to get sacked 10 times! The Lions will be missing key defensive players. Mack will be back so look for more of the same view from the turf for Stafford. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland, 4:05p, FOX (Raiders +10, O/U: 50)

I feel like I say this 8 times a year but again, the Chargers are a better team on the road. The Raiders are also another team in turmoil and their offense is LACKING. Take the Chargers to easily cover in the under, Chargers 31-17.

Miami at Green Bay, 4:25p, CBS (Packers -10.5, O/U: 48.5)

I understand that Osweiler has played well in his 4 starts but they’re going to the frozen tundra. Rodgers will have Valdez-Scantling getting more snaps in Allison’s absence, who had shown in previous games that he is a rookie that can offer big play ability along with Cobb and Adams. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 34-17.

Seattle at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, CBS (Rams -9, O/U: 51)

The Rams haven’t covered in the last few weeks and are coming off a huge game against the Saints on the road. They’ve also dealt with less practice time due to taking Friday off to help family and friends evacuate their homes due to the fires. Russell Wilson rarely loses by over a touchdown and they’ve played inspired football lately. Take the Rams to win an emotional game by the Seahawks to cover in the loss, in the under, Rams 27-21.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles -7.5, O/U: 44)

This will be another sloppy game by Dallas. They don’t have the weapons to give Dak many options. The Eagles added Golden Tate to the corps of receivers for Wentz to help make up for the lack of power in the backfield. Take the Eagles to cover big in the over, Eagles 27-14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • New Orleans at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (+5.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-3)
  • New England at Tennessee – New England (-6.5)
  • Seattle at LA Rams – Seattle (+10)
  • Dallas at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6.5)

#beatyourbookie