NFL Week 4:Thursday Night Football Pick & Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 8:20 PM, FOX/NFLN (Packers -4, O/U: 47.5)

The Eagles are coming off of a tough loss at home against the Lions where they had a second dropped pass that could’ve lead to a win (first happened in week 2 at Atlanta).  Alshon Jeffery is back in the lineup tonight after missing last week and most of the Falcons game, coming out early in the first quarter with a calf injury. Nelson Agholor was looked at often in Jeffery’s absence, seeing about a dozen targets the last few weeks and hauling in 3 scores.  They’ll expect him to continue to contribute, but hopefully with less drops.  The defense is lacking however and will be without Ronald Darby which will hurt the secondary even more as they’re ranked 29th in pass yards allowed.  Wentz by the numbers: 2019, 61 completion %, 803 yards, 6 TD’s and 2 INT’s.  He’s a career 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio and on Thursday nights he’s 3-0 with 61 completion % with 7 TD’s and 1 INT and a 104.5 QB rating.  His road numbers however are 8-13 with a 1.78:1 TD to INT ratio.

The Rodgers led Packers isn’t hyped by a high flying offense this year even though they woke up a bit last week.  The defense is showing off with having the 2nd best defense in points allowed with just 35.  They recorded 12 sacks and 6 turnovers in the first 3 weeks.  The Packers at home on Thursday nights since 2012 are 4-0 and won each game by at least 13 points (2012 v Bears 23-10, 2014 v Vikings 42-10, 2016 v Bears 26-10 & 2017 v Bears 35-14). Rodgers by the numbers: 2019: 61 completion %, 647 yards, 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  Over his career he’s just over 4:1 TD to INT ratio.  Thursday nights he’s 9-4 with a 67 completion %, a 6.75:1 TD to INT ratio and a 106 QB Rating.  At home he has a 66 completion % and a 5.57:1 TD to INT ratio and 107.7 QB rating with a record of 66-17-1.

The stats and recent history lean heavily in Green Bay’s favor.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 31-24.

Author: Jeremy Kohl

A good, hard working dude that loves his sports.

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