Tag: Points

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1.  Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team.  Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks.  Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers.  Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago.  It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16.  Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever.  Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock.  The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up.  In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game.  It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback.  Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre.  Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle).  The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team).  Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

 

Week 9: Monday Night Football

You live and die by half points.  Yesterday, I died by one.  The Titans were a half point away from making yesterday a little better.  But hey, check out that Colts game!  Tom Savage didn’t look good early on this season and he didn’t look any better yesterday.  Two shocks yesterday was how exploited the Broncos defense was and that the Jaguars played so well without Leonard Fournette.  Tough one tonight, lets look at it:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +2, O/U: 42.5)

Detroit comes into this game with one of the worst yards per play in the league and the Packers have to try and rekindle their offense in the wake of Aaron Rodger’s injury.  Brett Hundley had 2 weeks to better understand the offense and get into rhythm with the first team offense.  The Lions have had their usual passing game but they haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush was in town in 2013 and have only one once in Green Bay since 1992 and it came at the hands of Matthew Stafford in 2013.  Aaron Jones has been a surprise diamond in the rough find for Green Bay, who has been struggling to find consistency in the backfield for years.  I still like Green Bay getting +2 at home against an offense that can’t put the ball in the endzone inside the opponents redzone.  This game either puts me at 50% or 58% so it’s important that I dig down deep on this one.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 24-21.

 

Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year.  First off, thank you.  I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%.  Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself.  Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them.  Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off?  After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks.  How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games.  It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games.  8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them.  Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is.  It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not.  I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks.  Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point.  At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately.  Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons.  The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3!  They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline.  Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league.  The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo.  I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks.  You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin.  Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s.  Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game.  It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target.  After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS.  The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week.  Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

 

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game.  Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts.  Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

 A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1.  Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless).  Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air.  The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air.  Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man.  This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

 

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry.  All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point.  That’s betting pro ball for ya.  The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion.  regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%.  Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even.  Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter.  The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going.  Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards.  Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs).  Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back.  Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same.  The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not.  Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense.  The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3.  For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order.  Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!!  Yeah, I said it….

 

Week 5: Monday Night Football w/ Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

This week has been another up and down week with some real shockers and major injuries to star players.  We ended Sunday 6-7 against the spread on Sunday and 8-5 with the O/U.  I’m ready to just say scrap my early 1 pm picks and stay with my 4 pm and primetime picks where I’m 21-11-1 (64%).  We need this one to get back to .500, lets see if my primetime greatness (luck) continues…

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 8:30p (Bears +3.5, O/U: 40.5)

Vikings are favorites on the road against a spiraling Bears team who will now turn to their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of Mike Glennon, who committed 4 turnovers last week against their in-division rival Packers.  Trubisky was not a favorite of the fans once drafted but as he got to work this summer, he started turning heads.  The fruits of his labor from the summer come to light tonight.  He will have a two headed monster in the backfield with Howard and rookie Cohen to help get the job done.  The Vikings on the other hand lost their rookie running back sensation, Dalvin Cook, to a season ending knee injury.  They will now turn to Latavious Murray, who was signed this past off season to fill in and do what he was paid $15 million to be the guy, at least for 3 years.  Case Keenum will be under center again with Thielen, Diggs and now Michael Floyd coming back from his suspension.  These two defense have fairly similar stats but it’s how the bears defense can respond to the aerial attack that the Vikings have. The Vikings have surprised is recently without Bradford, continuing to be a force in offense so take them to beat the Bears rookie Trubisky in the over, Vikings 24-20.

Well uncle Colin has finally been defeated as his unprecedented win streak has ended at 4 weeks. He lost with his Lions, Rams, Cowboys, and Texans picks.  He usually loves his dogs in games and this week proves why he shouldn’t have strayed. The Panthers, Seahawks and Packers were all road dogs that were given between a +3 to +2 but then passed on a red hot Chiefs team only giving up -1.  Better pluck next well Colin. 

Week 3: Thursday Night Football

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers, 8:25pm (49ers +3, O/U: 40)

Sheesh, what a matchup.  These Thursday night games seem to be one bad matchup after another.  Now, the Rams seem to have some things together on offense with their new coach, Sean McVay, but the faith in Goff still isn’t totally there.  The rise of a semi stable passing game has taken a bit of the burden off of Gurley, who is having a good start to his third year in the league.  This will be a battle of defenses all night.  I’m actually shocked the over/under is where it is at 40.  I’m hinting at half of my prediction.

The 49ers defense has been a surprising bright spot of this team.  Losing key players on their defense over the years as hurt them but others have stepped up and a healthy NaVarro Bowman is the piece that leads this defenses success.  Hoyer needs to settle in.  Give the guy a break, it’s rather hard to go from system to system and play against tough defenses to start the season.  If he can get consistent in the short passing game, Hyde can gash the defense, and the 49ers could push for a bounce back season, starting with this game.

Don’t let the Rams early success grab your faith just yet.  This game could really give you a sense as to the capabilities of the Goff.  Look for the 49ers to steal a win as a home dog in the under, because it’ll be an ugly one.  49ers win in the under, 17-16.

Week 2: Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants, 8:15p (Giants -3, O/U: 42)

The big question rolling into tonight was OBJ.  Is he making his first start of the season or is he out another week?  As of 7pm as I write this post, he’s expected to play.  You would think that the line or the O/U would move a bit and it held steadfast.  Some lines moved half a point but most stayed at -3.  That’s telling me one of two things, either OBJ isn’t going to change the outcome of this game or they already figured he’d be back (since he was a game-time decision last week and practiced more during the week) and he turns the Giants from underdogs to just barely home favorites against the Lions.

There isn’t much to say about the Giants play last week that makes me feel good about them, even with OBJ in the lineup.  They didn’t have a number 1 receiver and couldn’t get the running game going but Eli Manning did still complete 76% of his passes.  The only thing going for them is their defense.

The lions had all they needed through the air last week but the running game hasn’t been developed yet even with multiple young backs.  Abdullah and Washington will carry the team where Riddick will be used more in the slot and swing passes plays they run.  The Lions won’t need a running game given the Giants front and how good they are.

These two teams met last year, it wasn’t a pretty game to watch.  Both teams had barely crossed 300 total yards of offense and that’ll be the case again tonight as the lineups for these two haven’t changed much at all (yes, even with old Brandon Marshall).  Take the Giants to win but the Lions to cover the spread in a close one in the under, Giants 21-20.

NFL Week 1: Season Opener

Welcome back to another NFL season!

This year, it just feels like it is going to be a great one.  The draft came and went with lots of quality depth for the running back and wide receiver positions.  Fantasy draft season hits and you’re suddenly thrown into the conundrum of taking a seasoned vet or one of the 4 rookie backs that could start and make huge impacts?  And talk about depth at receiver!  Outside of the top crop of players guaranteed to vie for the 200-250 point mark in most PPR leagues, there is some amazing depth there for your WR2-4!

Then pre-season hits. You’re excited, waiting for the first big crack of pads and game action regardless if they are guys who will be cut in 4 weeks (and Hardknocks).  Football is back!  A couple key injuries here and there and then you’re wondering why Greg held the damn draft so early in the pre-season…….but you don’t care because it gives you an excuse to play GM for your team and scour stats of the waiver wire players for that undrafted diamond in the rough stud!

Man, what a time of the year…

Fast forward to the first game of the season, Chiefs @ Patriots.  Pats -9, O/U 48.5:

Rule of thumb for the past 15 years or so has been, don’t bet against the Pats at home, EVER!  Chances are, out of 8 games, you’ll be in the black, handedly, every year.  Their ATS coverage at home since 2003 is amazing (75-54-4, 58.1% covers).  The only team better than them is Seattle 73-46-4 (61.3% covers), and those figures include playoffs.  Needless to say, SHOCKER! I mean, the only thing not shocking about that game was that the Chiefs were going to cover the 9 points Vegas gave them.  They had to have been reminded by that fact all week and possibly helped create a “chip on the shoulder” mentality that they weren’t being respected coming into this game.  Let’s be honest though, we know the Pats are REALLY good at home especially when it’s a feature game, but 9 POINTS!?!?!  That’s a spread you reserve for the Pats/Jags or the Pats/Browns, not the Chiefs.  I figured they’d cover but still lose…..because, well…..it’s the Pats at home.  I couldn’t have been more wrong about the final score.

Covers.com had the game at Pats -9, O/U of 48.5. I figured that the Pats secondary would make it difficult for Smith to be relied on solely, so I planned on his usual 1 maybe 2 TD’s through the air and maybe 250 yards, effectively like a pro vet QB, managing the game well.  I expected Hunt to make a small impact in his first game, maybe 70 yards and a score.  I expected the Pats to have their run game stall because of the Chiefs stingy defensive front and I expected Tom would exploit the defense on a handful of plays to keep the Pats ahead with his numerous air attack weapons.

Not once could I have predicted Hunt tearing off 148 yards on the ground with another 98 through the air along with 3 TD’s, (dramatic pause), ALL after losing a fumble on his first ever carry! Nor did I see Smith tossing for 368 and 4 scores while completing 80% of his passes.  No one, however, could’ve seen this coming, Tom Brady completing just 44% of his throws and end up with 0 TD’s, (another dramatic pause) 0!!!!  They only averaged 3.5 yards rushing as a team, mostly thanks to Gillislee and White (side shocker no one saw coming, Gillislee having 3 rushing TD’s).

So the Chiefs defense did what I thought they’d do but the pass rush against Brady was alive last night!  Brady had a bunch of time in the pocket for most of the night despite the 3 sacks but he felt the pressure amount the longer he held the ball (which was evident on a play where no one was all that close to him and he flinched in the pocket, ducking down as if to brace for a sack and quickly stood straight back up to fire an incompletion).  The Chiefs did all of this while amassing 15 penalties for 139 yards to which the Pats got 4 first downs from and set up a few close TD’s at the Chief’s goal line.

First game, in the books, complete shocker.  Expect a big bounce back next week since that usually happens when the Pats lose bad.

Check back Sunday morning for a preview of Sunday’s games complete with spread and over/unders from Covers.com along with my predictions for each game along with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5.

Thursday Night Throwdown

This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners.  The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter.  With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back.  For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise.  Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards.  Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over.  He has games like that from time to time.  Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up.  These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.