Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year.  First off, thank you.  I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%.  Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself.  Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them.  Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off?  After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks.  How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games.  It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games.  8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them.  Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is.  It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not.  I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks.  Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point.  At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately.  Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons.  The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3!  They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline.  Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league.  The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo.  I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks.  You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin.  Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s.  Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game.  It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target.  After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS.  The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week.  Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

 

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes.  Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games.  Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year.  WRONG!  Belichick corrected that ship.  Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more.  Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks.  On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight.  Sheesh.  Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game.  As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs.  Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning.  Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over.  Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year.  Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent.  Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr.  Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles.  Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras:  World Series talk.  Holy S**t, what a series so far.  2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot.  The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2.  Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling.  Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead.  Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great.  Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Flyers higher than cloud 9 after slamming home their 10th straight!

It’s been 31 years since the last time the Fly-Guys tasted this much winning in one spoon full.

The lead changed hands a few times but it was the Flyers will, determination and energy that brought the game back into their control and eventually their 10th straight victory, on the road against the Avalanche 4-3 Wednesday night.

The last 9 game win streak milestone before Sunday’s OT winner against the Red Wings, was during the strike shortened season of 1995.  I was just 9 years old.  As far as 10 games go, I can’t even say I was alive for that one.  It was last accomplished by our bullies in the orange and black, back in 1985.  The 1985-86 season started off with hopes of a return to the Stanley Cup, as we lost to the Oilers in the finals the previous season.  After starting the season 2-2, the Flyers rattled off 13 in a row (the next streak to beat now which in fact is the longest Flyers consecutive win streak in their 50 year history).

They were winning handedly with only one of the 13 wins reaching OT, and outscored opponents during that stretch, 70-36.  So far this streak has yielded 35 Flyer goals to 22 by opponents with 4 of the 10 games during the streak, reaching OT or SO.  However, the Flyers are doing something they haven’t been successful at doing for quite some time now, closing out OT and SO games with wins.

Last years OT/SO record was 14-15.  Breaking down the outcomes of those games shows that getting to OT wasn’t a worry, it was the SO.  The Flyers were able to go 11-6 in OT decisions but once it reached the SO, they posted a dismal 3-9 record.  This year has been a different story right from the opening gate for our blue collar boys.

This time last year, 12 games went to OT/SO, the record was 6-6 with a breakdown of 5-4 in OT decisions and 1-2 in SO’s.  This year, 7-3 in OT/SO breaking down to 4-1 in OT decisions and 3-2 in the SO’s.  Complete turnaround?  Absolutely and it’s not too early to say that either.  The difference seems to be the players have now adapted to Hakstol and his system, Hakstol messing with lines until they click, Giroux stepping up even more so as a captain, and Mason is hitting one of his ebb and flows where he plays out of his mind (history shows he’ll hit a wall and come back down to Earth though).  Oh, and I can’t forget the Wayne Train and Schenner.

Simmer and Schenn have been amazing pickups with tremendous upside since day one and are still very young.  Thank you Hextall!  Hextall has been a savior for this franchise with moves like these for Wayne and Brayden.  But that’s for another article, lets get back to talking about streaking……win streaks.

Winning streaks aren’t something Philly fans are used to.  The longest Phillies win streak at 16 wins, belongs to the Dapper Dan era of the 1887 Philadelphia Quakers.  The wizards of the hardwood, 76ers, took their longest wining streak over 2 seasons 1965-66/1966-67, and it was 18 games.  The Eagles soared to 8 straight in 1949. Which leads us to the Flyers streaking history.

We know that 13 is our magic number, the ’85 season, however, there are more streaks available for the taking that the Flyers are close to achieving.  Consecutive home winning streak is still a bit away (20 games set during the 1975-76 season).  If the Flyers can get a win in Dallas, and then back at home against the Predators and Capitals (tying the franchise consecutive wins record), they’ll have a chance to break the record on the road against the Devils a week from today.  If they make it to winning the 14 straight games, they’ll just need two more wins (at Blues and at Sharks) to tie the franchise consecutive road wins record at 8 with a chance to grab that record on New Years Day against the Ducks.  Getting to that point would mean that the Flyers would tie the NHL consecutive game winning streak record set at 17 by the 1992-93 Penguins.  To break that would be something Flyers fans would love to rub into their cross-state rivals faces, however, a streak of that proportion doesn’t guarantee a cup.  Plus, you would hope they keep that “one game at a time” mentality, right?

There’s plenty to be excited about for Flyers fans everywhere.  The team started as they usually do, hovering around .500 for the first few months but the spark we’ve seen out of this team lately is something magical.  Magical, not like David Copperfield magical but more like the amazing playoff run in 2007-08 where we saw RJ Umberger score 8 goals in the 5 game series against the Canadians.  Magical like the time the Flyers were down 3-0 in the Bruins series and down 3-0 in game 4, back in the 2009-10 playoff run only to come back, win game 4 and eventually the series and then take the Blackhawks to game 6 of the Cup Finals (but lost).  Magical like watching the line brawls from the 2004 regular season tilt between the Flyers and Senators (one of my favorite Flyers memories in my lifetime).

This team is rocking and rolling and playing to the likes many of us have never seen before or have seen small sample sizes of.  A ton of us weren’t around to see the Cup wins and love this team so much that we fight when they fight, celly when they celly and jump on the goalies for soft goals as their coaches would.  With a mix of young talent and veteran smarts, the Flyers have kept their momentum flowing and they don’t seem to be slowing down any time soon.  Watch out NHL, Philly is blowing the roof off the joint and we’re here to stay and make things rowdy.