Houston vs. New York Jets, 4:30p, NFLN (Jets +7, O/U: 44.5)
Houston had been on a tear with a 9 game winning streak until the Colts messed that up. They look to rebound against the lowly Jets. Despite giving up nearly 400 yards last week, the Texans have the 5th best defense in terms of points allowed and 5th best against the run. This bodes well for them given that the Jets pass game is virtually non existent. A surprising stat is that the Texans are 3-1 on grass this year. Pair that up with Watson’s 112.9 QBR in his last 7 games with 13 TDs and 2 picks alongside Hopkins 5 game road streak catching a touchdown, it makes for a dangerous setup against the Jets.
Speaking of the Jets, Darnold led his team with under 2 minutes left to beat the Bills and snap a 6 game losing streak. Neither rookie quarterback looked all that impressive however after starting with so much hype but failing on his face since week 3, Darnold needed something to gain the confidence back. With the team needing receivers, running back, a defense, the Jets will likely struggle often today.
Take the Texans to cover in the under, Texans 24-10.
Cleveland vs. Denver, 8:30p, NFLN (Broncos -1.5, O/U: 47)
This game feels like a trap given the national following the Browns have accrued. Baker Mayfield has come on strong as of late, leading this team with grit. The Browns are 3-1 in their last 4 with five wins against the Falcons and Panthers. Nick Chubb has also been on a roll with 5 straight games scoring on the ground. Their defense has had individual successes in the form of sacks and picks. Garrett has 7.5 of his 13.5 sacks in the last 7 games along with Randall picking 2 of his 4 passes in the last 3 games.
The Broncos have also been 3-1 in their last 4 games, also against great teams (Steelers and Chargers). Even with the big wins, Keenum has had 3 straight games with less than 200 yards. Phillip Lindsay has been hot and cold all season but still is starring at a 1,000 yard season and double digit rushing touchdowns. Von Miller has led the Broncos defensive resurgence with 9.5 of his 13.5 sacks in the last 8 games.
2nd cousins Bradley Chubb and Nick Chubb won’t be taking it easy on each other as both have eyes on the playoffs.
Take the Browns to cover in the over, Browns 27-24.