Against the Spread – Page 6 – Necessary Roughness

Week 3: Thursday Night Football

Last week was horrible for yours truly. One of my worst weeks since picking winners. This week, we will right the ship. We have a toughie to kick off this week so lets get to it.

New York at Cleveland, 8:20p, NFLN (Browns -3, O/U: 41)

New York comes into this matchup being brought back down to earth last week by the Dolphins, following their Rookie quarterbacks huge first win in his first game in Detroit in week one. Sam Darnold looked more like a rookie last week but with more picks than touchdowns however he still had poise and threw for over 300 yards despite the turnovers and lack of running game.

The Browns are still looking for their first win and they can just taste it. No, they’re not salivating at the thought of the beer lockers being slung open if they win, they literally tasted a victory. The Browns entered the fourth quarter holding a 12-3 lead giving up 15 unanswered points before Tyrod Taylor launched the ball to the back of the end zone and Antonio Callaway making a huge grab to tie the game at 18, with a pending extra point. The Browns, rarely in this position to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, ended up missing the extra point which would’ve given them a 19-18 lead. They’re tired of losing, tired of coming up just short and a hungry in front of their fans, but keep in mind, it’s still the Browns.

The line is surprising given the Browns usually finding ways to lose games and they’re rarely favorites. The moneyline scares me a bit with the Jets getting +150 and the Browns getting -170 but I’m still rolling with the safe bet, taking the Jets to cover and win in the under, Jets 21-17.

I feel for you Brownies, I want you to win (just not this week) but like a friend has perfectly put it, until you show me you can win, I will bet against you. Happy Thursday football night, good betting and don’t forget to #beatyourbookie.

Week 11: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Starting the week with a win on Thursday is something I’ve done quite a bit this year. Getting that first win sets the tone for my picks for the rest of the week. It’s not that I’ll be a little more risky with my picks after a Thursday win or more cautious if I had lost but the confidence is stronger and there’s less second guessing. I’m on my road to magical numbers and I haven’t lost sight of the overall goal (56%-60%) winners.

I told you the Steelers are just a different team at home, however I didn’t expect the cover win by 23! Mariota didn’t look too comfortale early and that ruined whatever confidence he had coming into the ketchup bottle. If you liked that pick and took it, you’re going to love these. On to Sunday’s games:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)

The Bears are coming off a shocking loss against the Packers. Mitch-a-palooza had to strap up his work belt extra tight given that his rushing game was non-existant. Howard had 15 carries for 54 yards (3.6 yards per carry) but one rush snapped off for 25 which puts his other 14 carries at just over 2 yards per carry. Bears can’t put that much on Trubisky’s shoulders and expect to win. The Lions had trouble putting the Browns away last week. Being tied with the Browns heading into the 4th quarter at home, has me nervous about them along with both teams record against the spread (5-4) and the Lions away ATS record (3-1) and the Bears home ATS record (4-1). Take the Lions to cover in the over, 27-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7.5, O/U: 37)

The Browns come into this game with one of the lowest scoring offenses (15.9) in the league while facing one of the best defenses who has allowed the least amount of points to it’s opponents (14.9). The Browns held it together for three strong quarters agains the Lions in Detroit last week which tells me that they still repect their coach and will play hard, even being winless. The Jaguars pulled out an OT win against the Chargers who are a very strong road team. Bortles slipped into his old was with low completion percentage and more picks than TD’s but were able to steal a win. Take the Jaguars to cover in the under, 24-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers +2, O/U: 38)

The Packers picked up a crucial win against the Bears last week, and right when I wrote off Hundley. Unfortunately for the Packers, Montgomery and Jones are both likely to miss this game meaning Jamaal Williams will have to fill in, which he did very successfully last week. Baltimore had a bye week but the week before, they nearly knocked off the Titans in their own house. This coming from a team that just seems very bland and not really excitting, especially on the road. Take the Packers to cover in the over, 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2, O/U: 37.5)

In a league where your quarterback is the most valuable player on your team (and highest paid player), it’s inheriantly important that they stay healthy. With Palmer and Watson out, it becomes a battle between Stanton and Savage. Get ready for 50% completions and a bunch of running. These kinds of games make picking a winner very hard. You litterally have to go through the rosters and base it off of the position matchup and then if you’re still baffled, go to coaching. Here, I like the coaching and the offense of the Cardinals so take them to cover in the under, 17-13.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 45.5)

This is an interesting matchup, one to watch. Both teams are 7-2, 6-3 ATS, at the top of their divisions, and have exceeded their pre-season expectations from day one. The Vikings had doneit with Sam Bradford in the first game but with Case Keenum ever since, which is impressive. The Rams success started with the change at head coach which seemed to have sparked Jared Goff. Both defenses are solid but expect this to be more of a shootout. Again, we have to matchup the QB’s and start spelling out who’s better where. The Rams just have a stronger team and will cover in the over, 31-27.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 51.5)

Nothing to surprise you with here about the Saints. They have returned to their offensive prowess but also added some solid running to their game. Drew Brees isn’t throwing as many passes but still is effective while he has Ingram and Kamra behind him enjoying great seasons especially since Ap has left town. The Redskins followed up their huge win in Seattle by hanging along another of the leagues better teams, the Vikings but ultimately losing. The Redskins have a commitee backfield which is tough to get consistency running the ball. Take the Saints to cover in the under, 31-17.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +10.5, O/U:+45.5)

So this is where the Giants are at, they lost to the (at the time) winless 49ers. Eli kept it together and didn’t throw a pick but his defense (which is supposed to be their bright spot), broke down badly. Run game, pass game, the 49ers just had their way with the Giants defense. The Chiefs had to deal with Zeke who whittled their defense down for 27 carries. Andy Reid off of bye weeks is one of if not the best at coming away with a win. Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +1, O/U: 42)

The matchup that was supposed to happen week one is finally on 11 weeks later. Given the way they both have played this year, I wouldn’t be mad if they just took another bye week. They both have disappointing offenses and to demonstrate how this game with go, grease your hand up with butter and try to turn a door nob. Take the Buccs to cover in the under, 17-14.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 41)

The Bills are turning to their rookie quarterback (seems to be a growing trend lately), marking his first start and road game seeing action. McCoy hasn’t been his normal self. The Chargers have been pressing opponents lately, at home and on the road (mostly on the road). The Chargers nearly stole one in Jacsonville last week. This week the Chargers take over the rookie with their dangerous pass rush and to cover in the under, Chargers 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -2.5, O/U: 38)

The Bengals just haven’t looked right all year. The frustrations seems to boil a few weeks ago when Green was throwing haymakers in the first half. Dalton looked better this week but with no running game, they can’t setup defenses for the pass. The Broncos are another example of why quarterbacks are important to your team. Not just important, vital! Siemianhasn’t worked since last year and to be so desperate to bring back Osweiller, says a lot about how they feel about their QB situation. I feel like the Bronceos defense won’t allow another loss at home. Take the Broncos to win in the under, 16-10.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (MC), 4:25p (Raiders +7.5, O/U: 54.5)

Mexico City will see their first NFL game in live action and it’s two well respected and talented teams. I said this earlier and actually called it in my first game this year, I like the Patriots but 7 or more points are reserved for team like the Browns, Giants, Colts and maybe even the 49ers. Neutral field games for the Patriots (basically all of their super bowls), have mostly all been close but it is Tom Brady we’re talking about. The Raiders had a slip up in the beginning with Carr missing some games but are back on track with a couple of wins strunge together. Big bets are on the Pats and this being a neutral field, makes it that much tougher. Take the Raiders to cover but loss in the under, Pats 24-21.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30p (Cowboys +6, O/U: 48)

The Eagles come into this one as one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL. Carson Wentz and his new additions have been lights out and the defense has been quite impressive as well, but offense always gets the head lines. The Eagles have shown consistency week in and week out and will continue to do so this week. The Cowboys have been on the Zeke roller coaster every week with news he’d be either in or out of the headlines. Well, Zeke is finally going to serve those 6 weeks and the ‘Boys will be down Sean Lee as well, whose the go to guy or the quarterback of the defense. This all coming as the season takes a turn to the finish line. Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 had an amazing start. Four weeks in, he was 15-5 (75% winners) but have calmed to a very respectable 30-20 (60%) but he is still picking gem weeks. He really likes Chiacago becasue he’s been burnt by the Lions before. Some advice, when I agree with betting on a team with Colin, my record is 21-10 (68% winners). This week, we’ll call them locks, Packers and Eagles. I actually would bet HEAVY on the Eagles if you get them anywhere near his line but even at 7 or less really. Here are his picks/lines from Friday:

Detroit at Chicago – Chicago (+3)
Cincinnati at Denver – Denver (-2.5)
Tampa Bay at Miami – Tampa Bay (+3)
Baltimore at Green Bay – Green Bay (+2)
Philadelphia at Dallas – Philadelphia (-3.5)

Week 10: Monday Night Football

It seems as though the 1pm games were giving me fits again yesterday but I bounced back beautifully hitting 3 for 3 in the 4pm games and nailed the Sunday night game with the Pats as 7 point road favorites against what is supposed to be one of the top 5 defenses in the league.

The Packers on the road were shocking as Brett Hundley actually made some really sweet throws. I didn’t think the Steelers pick would be a gamble on the road against the Colts, but like I said before, the Steelers on the road are just a different team. The Jets lost a game against a sinking ship. The Titans could slay the Bengals who are clawing at the bit to not have an absolutely terrible season. The Redskins disappoint at home after a huge come from behind victory in Seattle, only to lose at home to the all of a sudden, trendy Vikings. By the way, did you see Bridgewater suited up in that game as a backup, great story!

This league has been crazy week in and week out. Could’ve potentially had an amazing week but still grew to a 7-5-1 week 10 record so far. Anyways, this one is to help us get to 62%. On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers, 8:30p (Panthers -9, O/U: 38.5)

The Panthers have been slowly putting things together each of the last few weeks. They go from a dysfunctional team, with a dysfunctional quarterback who miraculously completes tons of passes to an efficient offense beating the likes of the Falcons and in previous weeks beating the Bills, Pats, Lions and kept a really close game against the Eagles. Cam’s stats aren’t tremendous through the air but they’re manageable. His interceptions have always been an issue. In 9 starts this year, his QB Rating has only been above 80% 4 times, and is a career 85% guy (average). He’s currently holding a 10 TD to 11 INT ratio, which is never good. But when he can break even or more TD’s to picks on that ratio, they win their games (6-0). So it looks like, no matter what his numbers are, as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over, he stays out of his head and gives his team a real shot in every game so long as he can focus.

What can I say about the Dolphins that will have you take them in this game? Nothing. Plain in simple, absolutely nothing. This is the worst offense in the league as far as scoring and yards go. Can you believe that? Worse than the Browns? In some regards, you bet! The Dolphins are dead last in the league in points scored, total offensive yards, rushing TD’s, average yards & points per drive and are 30^th in net yards per attempt, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, 29^th in passing yards, interceptions and so on. They’re going up against a defense that leads the league in yards allowed, 1^st downs allowed, rushing TD’s allowed and are 2^nd in passing attempts allowed, rushing attempts allowed, rushing yards allowed, 3^rd in points allowed, average points allowed per drive. I think you get the point. The Dolphins will have a very hard time moving the ball, maybe even looking at it given how hungry and possessive these Cats are with the football.

Take the Panthers to cover in a route tonight, in the over, 31-10.

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1. Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team. Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks. Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers. Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago. It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16. Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever. Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock. The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up. In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game. It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback. Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre. Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle). The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team). Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment. Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball? My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks. I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season. Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much. Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite? Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game? Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game. As long as they keep from turning the ball over. The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season. I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game. Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara. Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year. First off, thank you. I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%. Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself. Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them. Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off? After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks. How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games. It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games. 8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them. Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is. It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not. I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks. Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point. At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately. Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons. The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3! They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline. Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league. The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo. I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks. You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin. Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s. Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game. It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target. After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS. The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week. Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes. Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games. Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year. WRONG! Belichick corrected that ship. Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more. Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks. On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight. Sheesh. Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game. As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs. Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning. Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over. Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year. Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent. Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr. Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles. Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras: World Series talk. Holy S**t, what a series so far. 2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot. The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2. Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling. Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead. Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great. Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game. Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts. Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1. Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless). Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air. The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air. Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man. This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry. All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point. That’s betting pro ball for ya. The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion. regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%. Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even. Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going. Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards. Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs). Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back. Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same. The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not. Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense. The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3. For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order. Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!! Yeah, I said it….

Week 6: Monday Night Football & Analysis

Well, we’ve come down to the end of week 6 and yet another bounce back week for me. Tonight’s game will either cap me at 57% winners or 64% winners, either way, you should’ve made some money.

I don’t know what is going on in this league lately, maybe it’s the injuries, maybe it’s that some of these teams really did their home work in the coaching hires they’ve made and the rookies they’ve drafted but the league is super competitive this year. 18 teams hover at or around (higher/lower) the .500 mark by a game. Now, you have 6 teams 2 games or more below .500 and 6 teams that are 2 games or more above .500 but it’s rather tight with more than half of the league. Not to mention, a team like the 49ers have lost every game this year to go 0-6. That might sound really bad, but take a look at how much they’ve lost by in their last 5 games and you may think differently about them, at Seahawks by 3, at home to the Rams by 2, at Cardinals by 3, at Colts by 3, at Redskins by 2. That’s a helluva effort by Shanahan and his crew.

With that, lets go to some stats that I came across after breaking down my first 6 weeks of picks and let me tell you, there are some really odd trends. Through the first 90 games:

ATS	O/U	ATS	O/U
Thursday Night		Sunday 1p
5-1	3-3	21-28-1	25-25
*83%*	50%	43%	50%

Sunday 4p		Sunday Night
14-8	14-8	2-4	2-4
*61%*	*61%*	33%	33%

Monday Night		Primetime
4-1-1	3-2-1	11-6-1	8-9-1
*80%*	*60%*	*65%*	47%

Bookend Nights		Overall
9-2-1	6-5-1	*46-42-2*	*47-42-1*
*82%*	55%	52%	53%

There are my overall stats, pretty simplistic breakdown with the added bonus of seeing each set of games throughout the week. The “Bookend Nights” are the combined record of the Thursday and Monday night games. Pretty astonishing isn’t it? I just love to see the trends when you breakdown my basic overall record to see where the strengths and weaknesses are in my picks. That being said, I had some time to look at this breakdown even further:

Underdog Picks		Road Dog Picks		Home Dog Picks
22-9-1	*71%*	15-5-1	*75%*	7-4	*64%*

Favorite Picks		Road Favorite Picks		Home Favorite Picks
24-33-1	42%	8-13-1	38%	16-20	44%

Picks 7+ Points		Picks 6.5 – 3 Points		Picks 2.5 or Less Pts.
10-12	46%	24-23-2	51%	12-7	*63%*

As you can see here, I broke down my overall even farther, to the underdog and favorites in each pick as well as with 3 different spread categories. I apparently LOVE the underdog picks and do very well in deciding on which underdog games will pay dividends. The one jaw dropper I saw was my record with the road dogs. 75% winners on road dogs! That’s insane! Those are games not many bettors take and I’ve already bet on 21 of them, and pretty successfully. Sadly, not so much on the favorites. The one thing I’m jealous on is my one good buddies record on the games he picks to bet on with the favorites. I think it’s obvious that I need to take some notes with him.

I also gave a point spread breakdown because there are games where you sit there, look at the line and go “man, if it was 6.5 instead of 7, I’d take it” among other lines scenarios. Well, you can now look at my trends using that same thought process. How successful I’ve been in selecting which spreads I’m better at deciding who’s going to cover. I was actually shocked since the 2.5 point or less games are so hard to determine given that Vegas thinks the 2 teams at play are fairly equal, or at least that the road dog or road favorite is a bit more dominate even in the other teams house. Nevertheless, I do pretty well with games that have under a 3 point spread. But no you might want to know about the road dogs and favorites right? Look no further:

RDog Picks 7+ Points		RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points		RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
3-1	*75%*	8-3-1	*73%*	4-1	*80%*

RFav. Picks 7+ Points		RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points		RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
0-3	0%	4-6-1	40%	4-4	50%

Dog Picks 7+ Points		Dog Picks 6.5-3 Points		Dog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
1-0	*100%*	3-4	43%	3-0	*100%*

Fav. Picks 7+ Points		Fav Picks 6.5-3 Points		Fav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts
6-8	43%	9-10	47%	1-2	33%

As you saw, I’m a huge fan of the road dog and they help me win a good percentage of my games but I wanted to see what kinds of spreads I bet on them (RDog) with and the outcomes, as well as road favorites (Rfav.), the home dog picks (Dog), and home favorite picks (Fav.). The numbers speak for themselves, road dog record, no matter what spread you’re getting, if I’m betting a road dog, you should be as well. Same goes for the home dogs 7+ points and 2.5 points or less. So far I’m undefeated there.

So there you have it, the complete breakdown of my picks. You can see my strengths and weaknesses from the first 6 weeks of the season. I hope to give you updates on these stats at the end of every month going forward. Now, on to tonight’s Monday Night Football pick:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 8:30p (Titans -7.5, O/U: 48)

So let me get this straight, the Colts who are 2-3, who have a capable quarterback, receivers and running back are 7.5 point road dogs to the Titans who are without their stud rookie receiver and will start their leader, quarterback Marcus Mariota after sitting out a week with a hamstring issue? Hamstrings are no joke and take some time to heal. Mariota, even with a good offensive line, is known to scramble and make plays with his legs. The Colts will look to keep him in the pocket and hit him low or at least wrap him up to the point where he tries to break free and possibly re-aggravate his hamstring injury. He won’t have much help around him with injuries and DeMarco Murray having a bleak couple of weeks in rushing yards. Jacoby Brissett has some of the tools that Andrew Luck has in regards to movement. They both can move well inside and outside of the pocket, it’s the decision making that’s key. Brissett has 60% completions this year and only 3 INT’s but just a measly 2 TD’s. He hasn’t looked fantastic in the red zone with his arm but has made things happen with his 3 TD runs. In the end, both defenses are in the bottom 3rd in the league, the Colts are worse but bad is bad. I don’t expect this to be a shootout but I do expect the Colts to keep it close. Take the Titans to win but the Colts to cover as road dogs in the under, 21-17.

Lastly, I want to wish my warmest regards to Aaron Rodgers. I was devastated to hear about the broken collarbone. I’m a huge Packer fan and he is our team. I hope for a speedy recovery, we need ya 12!

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