Author: Jeremy Kohl

A good, hard working dude that loves his sports.

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1.  Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team.  Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks.  Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers.  Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago.  It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16.  Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever.  Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock.  The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up.  In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game.  It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback.  Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre.  Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle).  The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team).  Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

 

Week 9: Monday Night Football

You live and die by half points.  Yesterday, I died by one.  The Titans were a half point away from making yesterday a little better.  But hey, check out that Colts game!  Tom Savage didn’t look good early on this season and he didn’t look any better yesterday.  Two shocks yesterday was how exploited the Broncos defense was and that the Jaguars played so well without Leonard Fournette.  Tough one tonight, lets look at it:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +2, O/U: 42.5)

Detroit comes into this game with one of the worst yards per play in the league and the Packers have to try and rekindle their offense in the wake of Aaron Rodger’s injury.  Brett Hundley had 2 weeks to better understand the offense and get into rhythm with the first team offense.  The Lions have had their usual passing game but they haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush was in town in 2013 and have only one once in Green Bay since 1992 and it came at the hands of Matthew Stafford in 2013.  Aaron Jones has been a surprise diamond in the rough find for Green Bay, who has been struggling to find consistency in the backfield for years.  I still like Green Bay getting +2 at home against an offense that can’t put the ball in the endzone inside the opponents redzone.  This game either puts me at 50% or 58% so it’s important that I dig down deep on this one.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 24-21.

 

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment.  Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball?  My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks.  I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season.  Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much.  Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite?  Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game?  Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game.  As long as they keep from turning the ball over.  The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season.  I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game.  Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara.  Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
  • Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
  • LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
  • Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

 

Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year.  First off, thank you.  I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%.  Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself.  Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them.  Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off?  After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks.  How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games.  It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games.  8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them.  Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is.  It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not.  I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks.  Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point.  At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately.  Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons.  The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3!  They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline.  Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league.  The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo.  I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks.  You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin.  Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s.  Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game.  It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target.  After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS.  The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week.  Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

 

Week 8: Monday Night Football

After a few small successful weeks, pulling back away from the .500 line, we had a blowout week.  As it stands, we are above 60% winners this week, no matter what happens tonight but could also have our best week this year and even with only 13 games on the schedule.  Coming into the week I thought it was going to be tough picking these games as I was looking at the lines earlier in the week.  There were 5 games with lines of 7 or more, 7 of the 13 games had a line of at least 6 or more.  It looked like an uphill climb.  However, after I really looked into each matchup, and linked what I read into what I’ve seen from the teams so far this year, I felt pretty confident in my picks and that we could have a good week.

I’m 8-4 so far against the spread this week and wouldn’t you believe it, I even took 5 teams favored by 6 or more coming away 4-1 (I should’ve known better to think that the Bengals could cover a 10.5 point spread, no matter the opponent).  This week puts me 8 games above .500 with a 54% cover rate, almost good enough to make a living out of doing this.  Obviously there’s luck involved.  If you break down the winning spreads from those 4 majorly favored teams that won, The Patriots covered by a point and the Saints covered by .5 points but hey, a cover is a cover.

One reason I made an emphasis on the large spreads this week is because of tonight’s matchup as well, which unlike the other 5 games with spreads over 7 points, will be a tougher call on my part given one teams really good defense and the other teams really good offense in one of the toughest places to play a road game in the league.  Now, on to tonight’s game:

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7 , O/U: 42)

The over is 4-0-1 the last 5 games between these two but the trends are surprisingly favoring the Broncos.  The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 in the last 6.

This one however will buck the trends.  The Chiefs come into this game covering all but two games (their last 2), which is pretty impressive given their opponents.  This is thanks to rookie sensation Kareem Hunt and the deadly accurate Alex Smith.  Smith is connecting on over 72% of his passes as he is playing for the Chiefs to keep him around and Hunt is having a rookie dream season compiling over 700 yards, 5.8 yards per carry.

The Broncos offense is having a hard time getting it together.  Trevor Siemian has been accurate but 8 td’s to 7 picks is bad and he has a light 1,471 yards through 6 games is only 245 yards per game. 

Both defenses are good but if your offense can’t score, it ultimately hurts your defense since they are in the field more. Take the Chiefs to win in the over, 31-17.

Let’s get to 69% winners this week baby, go chiefs! 

Week 8: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (L), 9:30a (Browns +11, O/U: 38.5)

Take the Vikings in the over, Vikings 31-10.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -2, O/U:47)

Take the Raiders in the under, Raiders 24-20.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -10.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Bengals in the over, Bengals 31-17.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -7, O/U: 49)

Take the Patriots in the over, Patriots 35-21.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Saints in the over, Saints 31-23.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +6.5, O/U: 43.5)

Take the Jets in the over but the Falcons to win, Falcons 31-28.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -12.5, O/U: 44.5)

Take the Eagles in the over, Eagles 34-14.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers -1, O/U: 46)

Take the Buccaneers in the under, Buccs 24-21.
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks, 4p (Seahawks -6, O/U: 45.5)

Take the Texans in the over, but the Seahawks to win,  28-24.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins, 4:25p (Redskins +2.5, O/U: 46)

Take the Cowboys in the over, Cowboys 28-24.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions *, 8:30p (Lions +3, O/U: 44.5)

Take the Steelers in the under, Steelers 24-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at NY Jets – Atlanta (-4)
  • Carolina at Tampa Bay – Carolina (+2)
  • LA Chargers at New England – LA Chargers (+7.5)
  • Houston at Seattle – Houston (+5.5)
  • Dallas at Washington – Dallas (-2.5)

 

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes.  Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games.  Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year.  WRONG!  Belichick corrected that ship.  Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more.  Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks.  On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight.  Sheesh.  Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game.  As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs.  Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning.  Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over.  Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year.  Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent.  Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr.  Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles.  Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras:  World Series talk.  Holy S**t, what a series so far.  2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot.  The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2.  Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling.  Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead.  Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great.  Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game.  Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts.  Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

 A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1.  Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless).  Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air.  The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air.  Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man.  This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

 

Week 7: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, the last two games have been severely disappointing and unlike anything I’ve seen in picking games against the spread.  It’s heartbreaking to lose 2 games in the last minute of games. As for this week, I will not be throwing in analysis for each game, I simply had no time this weekend but have no fear, I still watch most plays in all gamers.  Enough talk, here’s my picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills -3, O/U: 45)
Take the Bills to cover at home in the under, Bills 24-17.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)
Take the Panthers on the road to cover in the over, Panthers 24-20.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns ,1p (Browns +5.5, O/U: 45)
Take the Titans to cover in the under, 27-16.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Saints -4, O/U: 47.5)
Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 33-27.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +3, O/U: 43.5)
Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 20-17.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (L), 1p (Rams -3, O/U: 45.5)
Take the Rams to cover in the over, 27-24.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins -3, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Jets to cover in the over, Jets 21-20.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -4.5, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Vikings to cover in the over, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1p (Steelers -5.5, O/U: 40.5)
Take the Steelers to cover in the under, Steelers 20-14.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +6.5, O/U: 48.5)
Take the Cowboys to cover in the over, Cowboys 31-21.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25p (Chargers +1, O/U: 40.5)
Take the Chargers to cover in the over, Chargers 21-20.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, 4:25p (Giants +3.5, O/U: 38.5)
Take the Giants to cover in the over, Giants 24-20.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots , 8:30p (Patriots -3, O/U:56.5)
Take the Falcons to cover in the under, Patriots 31-24
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:
Arizona at LA Rams – LA Rams (-3.5)
Baltimore at Minnesota – Minnesota (-5.5)
Carolina at Chicago – Carolina (-3)
Dallas at San Francisco – San Francisco (+6)
Atlanta at New England – Atlanta (+3.5)

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry.  All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point.  That’s betting pro ball for ya.  The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion.  regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%.  Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even.  Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter.  The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going.  Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards.  Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs).  Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back.  Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same.  The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not.  Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense.  The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3.  For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order.  Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!!  Yeah, I said it….