After a few small successful weeks, pulling back away from the .500 line, we had a blowout week. As it stands, we are above 60% winners this week, no matter what happens tonight but could also have our best week this year and even with only 13 games on the schedule. Coming into the week I thought it was going to be tough picking these games as I was looking at the lines earlier in the week. There were 5 games with lines of 7 or more, 7 of the 13 games had a line of at least 6 or more. It looked like an uphill climb. However, after I really looked into each matchup, and linked what I read into what I’ve seen from the teams so far this year, I felt pretty confident in my picks and that we could have a good week.
I’m 8-4 so far against the spread this week and wouldn’t you believe it, I even took 5 teams favored by 6 or more coming away 4-1 (I should’ve known better to think that the Bengals could cover a 10.5 point spread, no matter the opponent). This week puts me 8 games above .500 with a 54% cover rate, almost good enough to make a living out of doing this. Obviously there’s luck involved. If you break down the winning spreads from those 4 majorly favored teams that won, The Patriots covered by a point and the Saints covered by .5 points but hey, a cover is a cover.
One reason I made an emphasis on the large spreads this week is because of tonight’s matchup as well, which unlike the other 5 games with spreads over 7 points, will be a tougher call on my part given one teams really good defense and the other teams really good offense in one of the toughest places to play a road game in the league. Now, on to tonight’s game:
|Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7 , O/U: 42)
The over is 4-0-1 the last 5 games between these two but the trends are surprisingly favoring the Broncos. The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 in the last 6.
This one however will buck the trends. The Chiefs come into this game covering all but two games (their last 2), which is pretty impressive given their opponents. This is thanks to rookie sensation Kareem Hunt and the deadly accurate Alex Smith. Smith is connecting on over 72% of his passes as he is playing for the Chiefs to keep him around and Hunt is having a rookie dream season compiling over 700 yards, 5.8 yards per carry.
The Broncos offense is having a hard time getting it together. Trevor Siemian has been accurate but 8 td’s to 7 picks is bad and he has a light 1,471 yards through 6 games is only 245 yards per game.
Both defenses are good but if your offense can’t score, it ultimately hurts your defense since they are in the field more. Take the Chiefs to win in the over, 31-17.
Let’s get to 69% winners this week baby, go chiefs!