Whoa, what a start to the week. The Eagles win against another big opponent as road dogs. They had one factor that they had to fight against in that game, that I’m sure they didn’t gameplan for, the officiating. my goodness, 10 penalties for 126 yards but the Panthers had 1 for, wait for it………….1 yard! That’s absurd! Nevertheless, the Eagles pounded the rock, overcame turnovers and pressured Cam to the point where he was hit a ton and threw 3 picks. It was a great and entertaining game, that I predicted masterfully to continue on to a 5-1 (83% winners) Thursday night record against the spread.
Now, last post I said you should be weary of my Sunday 1pm picks, and rightfully so, but MAN, am I pumped about this Sunday. There are some favorable matchups and some shakeups around the league that could be detrimental to their respective teams. Key injuries, a trade, a rookies first road start, and a star QB coming back after a pretty serious injury after only 2 weeks. Let’s find out where I stand given these circumstances. On to the games:
|Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -13, O/U: 45.5)|
Miami may have a pretty damn good defense, especially against the run where they’re a top 5 team against the run, but man is their offense non-existent. It’s literally the worst in the league. Could anyone predict that with Cutler at the helm? That was rhetorical. The Falcons have one of the league’s highest powered offenses and their defense has improved this year, leaps and bounds over years past. With 2 really good receivers, 2 really good backs and a good quarterback, that offense will be too much for the Dolphins. Take the Falcons to cover that huge spread at home in the over, 31-17.
|Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens -6.5, O/U: 38.5)
Mitch-a-palooza ruined my chance at a .500 week last week so I’m dogging him this week. Just kidding but I don’t think they’re going to have much success on the road in Baltimore. The Ravens, like many other defensive specialty type teams, are overly great at home. It can fool you into thinking they’re a great team but once they get on the road, they’re bad. I can’t read the Ravens. They’ve been blown out in London by the Jags, blown out at home by the Steelers, killed the Raiders in Oakland. I don’t know what their identity is as a team yet. The Bears have the talent to have a great defense one day but their offense is too young for me to think they’ll really do anything special this year yet. The Ravens have been a tough sell as they’ve been up and down all season but take them in this game to cover but in the under, 24-14.
|Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -9.5, O/U: 47)
Talk about dumpster fires and you almost have to include the Browns every time. I hate to say it but they are unwatchable this year. I think they gave a whole season’s worth of effort in the Steelers game to pull out an upset because they have looked like a high school football team on offense since. they’ve given up on DeShone Kizer and now turn to Kevin Hogan who at least can complete some passes. I really want to just tell the owners to give up, sell the team, let someone else try to bring this puppy back to life. The Texans on the other hand have a rookie that is just showing off at this point. DeShaun Watson has been remarkable from the moment he went under center, and a lot of people admit, were worried about replacing Tom Savage so early. Unfortunately they lose Watt for the year but the good news is that they have Clowney on the other side. Take the Texans to cover the spread and in the under as the Browns start yet another young, inexperienced QB, 27-10.
|Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings +3, O/U: 45)
For the Vikings, not only do they have to worry about opponents like Rodgers and his crew but they have to worry if their own player Diggs will hurt them by being out. He has been nursing a groin injury and hasn’t practiced all week. The Vikings made a mistake last week by letting Bradford start the game. He looked hobbled and the simplest contact made him limp worse and worse as the 1st half ticked on. He didn’t look like he was in game shape and it slowed the teams start to last week. Once he was taken out, it was a different ball game. Rodgers looked right at home in Dallas especially when he was left with 1:13 in the game to get a win. He was often seen smiling in that last drive and looked amazingly focused. Dallas is considered one of the top 5 teams in the league this year and to pull off a road win like that gives a team some swagger. The Packers go to divisional rival Vikings and win it, covering the spread and in the over, 31-24.
|Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -4, O/U: 50)
The Saints look much improved over a year ago even with giving up Bradin Cooks. Michael Thomas has been the new go to guy and Ingram is running the ball well but the biggest surprise is the return of the Saints defense. They may give up a ton of yards and that’s only because of the high powered, quick strike offense but they’ve given up the leagues 4th least amount of points. The Lions on the other hand have been the same guys as last year. They’re in every game but it’s a toss up as to if they’re going to win or not. The offense is 29th in yards per game, and 30th in yards per play. That’s horrible! Their defense is middle of the road but allow the leagues 10 worst yards per play. I can’t see the Lions keeping this one close. Take the Saints to win and cover in the under, 31-17.
|New England Patriots at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +9, O/U: 47.5)
This is a huge spread. The one thing I’ll say is that the Patriots are usually the same team on the road as they are at home. Their consistency has been unprecedented over the last 15 years. But to that point, I’ll make this one, Brady has been getting hit more this year than in years past. He’s always had stars banged up and made some unknown receivers, stars in New England. The Jets were thought to have begun the process of tanking this year. They got rid of some stars on both sides of the ball but that hasn’t stopped them from winning games, in fact they are on a 3 game winning streak. I think 9 points is too much for the Pats to cover on the road, so take the Pats to win but the Jets to cover in the under, 28-21.
|San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins -11, O/U: 46.5)
This is the other end of the extreme, a huge home favorite. The 49ers just released a defensive monster that’s been the key to their middle of the field for years, NaVorro Bowman. Pierre Garcon has been their top offensive threat along with Carlos Hyde but the quarterback play has been mediocre. The defense has allowed a bunch of yards but have been good with allowing only 5.2 yards per play, good for 14th in the league. The Redskins have been flexing their defensive muscle against big opponents, only allowing 89 points which is 9th least allowed. Their offense seems to be in tune even after letting Garcon and Desean Jackson go in the offseason, with the 8th best yards per game and 7th in yards per play. Again, I think the spread is too much, take the Redskins to win straight up but the 49ers to cover in the under, 24-17.
****Disclaimer****The Last few I have no time for analysis, I need to get to a wedding but you can still check out who I take. If I get a chance to, I’ll up date the post with analysis. Please, read on.
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals +1.5, O/U: 46)
The Cardinals haven’t covered a spread yet this year so I feel like this is a gimme, take them being home dogs to win in the over, 28-24.
|Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars, 4:05p (Jaguars -2.5, O/U: 42.5)
Take the Rams to cover with a win and in the over, 24-23.
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25p (Chiefs -4, O/U: 47)
Take the Chiefs to cover with a win in the over, 31-24.
|Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders, 4:25p (Raiders -3.5, O/U: 50.5)
Take the Chargers To cover in the loss to the Raiders in the under, 24-21.
|New York Giants at Denver Broncos , 8:30p (Broncos -11.5, O/U: 39.5)
Take the Broncos to cover with a win in the over, 31-14.
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:
Philadelphia @ Carolina (-3.5)
Detroit @ New Orleans (-5)
Chicago (+6.5) @ Baltimore
LA Rams (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
New England (+9.5) @ New York Jets