Tag: Thursday Night

NFL Week 4:Thursday Night Football Pick & Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 8:20 PM, FOX/NFLN (Packers -4, O/U: 47.5)

The Eagles are coming off of a tough loss at home against the Lions where they had a second dropped pass that could’ve lead to a win (first happened in week 2 at Atlanta).  Alshon Jeffery is back in the lineup tonight after missing last week and most of the Falcons game, coming out early in the first quarter with a calf injury. Nelson Agholor was looked at often in Jeffery’s absence, seeing about a dozen targets the last few weeks and hauling in 3 scores.  They’ll expect him to continue to contribute, but hopefully with less drops.  The defense is lacking however and will be without Ronald Darby which will hurt the secondary even more as they’re ranked 29th in pass yards allowed.  Wentz by the numbers: 2019, 61 completion %, 803 yards, 6 TD’s and 2 INT’s.  He’s a career 2.5:1 TD to INT ratio and on Thursday nights he’s 3-0 with 61 completion % with 7 TD’s and 1 INT and a 104.5 QB rating.  His road numbers however are 8-13 with a 1.78:1 TD to INT ratio.

The Rodgers led Packers isn’t hyped by a high flying offense this year even though they woke up a bit last week.  The defense is showing off with having the 2nd best defense in points allowed with just 35.  They recorded 12 sacks and 6 turnovers in the first 3 weeks.  The Packers at home on Thursday nights since 2012 are 4-0 and won each game by at least 13 points (2012 v Bears 23-10, 2014 v Vikings 42-10, 2016 v Bears 26-10 & 2017 v Bears 35-14). Rodgers by the numbers: 2019: 61 completion %, 647 yards, 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  Over his career he’s just over 4:1 TD to INT ratio.  Thursday nights he’s 9-4 with a 67 completion %, a 6.75:1 TD to INT ratio and a 106 QB Rating.  At home he has a 66 completion % and a 5.57:1 TD to INT ratio and 107.7 QB rating with a record of 66-17-1.

The stats and recent history lean heavily in Green Bay’s favor.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 31-24.

NFL Week 3: Thursday Night Football Prediction & Pick

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TIAA Bank Field, 8:20 PM, NFLN (Jaguars +1.5, O/U: 38.5)

The Titans have been a bit unpredictable to start the season with clubbing the Browns and bursting their hype bubble in their own home to coming back home and falling to the Andrew Luck-less Colts. Mariota has been careful with the ball throwing zero picks but just barely cracked the 400 yard mark.  The workhorse has been Derrick Henry averaging just under 5 yards per carry and found the end zone 3 times (2 rushing TD’s, 1 receiving TD’s).  The defense has played well, holding opponents to being 8/24 on 3rd downs, have only allowed 365 passing yards through the first 2 games, caused 5 turnovers (4 INT’s, 1 fumble recovery)which leads the league in turnover differential (+5) and have only allowed 32 points which is good for 6th least allowed in the league.  Issues I see are that they’re only 3/20 on 3rd down, the o-line has also been sacked 8 times, and have allowed the 7th most yards per game on the ground.

There’s really not much I can say about the Jaguars other than that in most stat categories, they’re middle of the road or leaning towards the bottom 3rd in the league.  Gardner Minshew looked ok in his first NFL regular season action and has completed a fantastic 77.6% of his passes with 3 TD’s and a INT.  He’s also able to make up for the lack of rushing attack from once highly touted Fournette, with 7 carries for 62 yards and actually has a team long 21 yard carry.  DJ Chark (11-201-2TD’s) and Chris Conley (10-170-1TD) have been the teams leading receivers.  Big issues I see with the Jags are having a mediocre offense now being lead by a rookie, tied for the 3rd worst turnover differential (-3).

Take the Titans to cover in the win and in the under, Titans 21-13.

NFL Week 2: Thursday Night Football Prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers, Bank of America Stadium, 8:20 PM, NFLN (Panthers -7, O/U: 48.5)
Jameis Winston couldn’t seem to get out of his own way last week against the 49ers. He accounted for all 4 of the Buccs turnovers including 3 interceptions, which two were brought back for touchdowns. Bruce Arians seems to have a short memory with Winston so far, keeping him as a starter for tonight. Ronny Jones III had a solid opening game to his sophomore campaign as he tries to solidify the back who will get the biggest workload. Jones went 75 yards on 13 carries while also catching a pass for 18 yards. Cam Newton had a solid outing to start the season against the Rams. He had a hard time moving the ball through the air, averaging less than 10 yards per completion. Panthers fans however, got to enjoy watching another stellar performance from Christian McCaffrey who had over 200 yards from scrimmage, leading the team in rushing and receiving, and had 2 rushing scores. Tonight’s game will mark Gerald McCoy’s first game against his old team since he had spent his first 9 years in the league with Tampa Bay. The thing that hurt the Panthers last week was giving the Rams short field drives early in the game. They will not drop 2 home games in back to back weeks. Take the Panthers to cover in the win, in the under, Panthers 27-17.

2019 NFL Kickoff Week 1: Thursday Night Football Spread Pick/Prediction

Welcome to week one of the NFL’s 100th season!  These off-seasons seem to get longer and longer as the years go on but that’s only thanks to the 24/7 NFL news cycle.  It also gave me a long time to think about the very average follow up I had in 2018 (51%) to the successes of my 2017 season (56%).  Don’t worry, I’m refreshed, recharged and packing a big ol’ punch for this season.  There have been many dramatic stories around the league to keep us all busy during the summer that any normal fan would feel worn out before even a minute is played this year already, but there’s always something special about opening day.

From Le’Veon Bell signing with the Jets for less money than he sat out for/demanding from the Steelers, to Antonio Brown’s freezer burnt feet and helmet issues, Ezekiel Elliot and Melvin Gordon pulling the holdout card Bell made so famous, then Zeke signing a huge deal given the very thin market for dynamic backs and the Chargers telling Gordon to forget about signing a massive deal in LA and that he should seek a trade, to the sad retirement of one of the games top quarterbacks, Andrew Luck, just a few weeks before the season starts.  It has been a whirlwind with many changes and new names and faces in new places but we’ve made it.  The time is now and kickoff is here, let’s get after it!

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears, Soldier Field, 8:20 PM, NBC (Bears -3, O/U: 46.5):

We go into the opening day of the 100th year with the most storied rivalry in the league’s history. We got a glimpse of how great it is nearly a year ago when the then newly acquired Khalil Mack dominated the first half of the game and gave the Packers and their fans a scare when he hobbled Rodgers with a few hits and injured his knee.  Rodgers goes into the half, doses up on some major pain killers and comes out and blows up the Bears secondary and their 20 point lead to win 24-23 and then gave a hilarious post game interview, clearly high on pain meds mixed with the high of beating their fiercest division rival.  We will get much of the same tonight but hopefully with less knee torqueing on Rodgers since that plagued him most of last season (I know, I’m a Packers homer).

High Rodgers

This year the Bears are trying to build off of their 12-4, NFC North division champs season last year that catapulted them from a bottom 8 team to a playoff caliber team that ended in the playoffs with the ill fated Cody Parkey “double doink”. Most of the significant changes were the addition of Mack but also the offensive efficiency due to a coaching change.  The Bears would game-plan the scripts of their first few drives of each game pretty well in order to get games off to good starts and for Trubisky to build confidence.  Out of their 43 offensive touchdowns, 24 of them were in the first half (56%).  Their running game has something to prove and will have a challenge with having a younger/unproven backfield in which will more than likely split the workload between 3 different backs, at least at first.

The Packers will come to the season opener with a new coach Matt LaFleur, coaching staff, offense and have a young receiving corps lead by Davante Adams given the deductions over the last two seasons of mainstays Randall Cobb (Dallas Cowboys) and Jordy Nelson (retiring after spending last year in Oakland).  The Packers also discovered a running game in Aaron Jones last year before he was lost to the season with injury.  He is poised to bounce back this year, hopefully giving the Packers a 1,000 yard back again and continue on the TD tear he was on last year where he scored 8 TD’s in 7 games before his injury.  The Packers last 1,000 yard rusher was way back in 2013 and 2014 when Eddie Lacy squeaked over the mark in back to back years (1,178/1,139).  In Rodger’s 11 years as a starter, he’s only had 4 years with a 1,000 yard back.  Lastly, the Packers have invested in their defense through the draft and even picked up former Bear safety, Adrian Amos, in free agency.  It could be the Packers best defense since their Super Bowl win in 2010.

The Packers will catch the Bears off guard with the full playbook of the Packers offense being unveiled in a special rivalry meeting.  I may be a homer here but you also have to look at it as a matchup of QB’s as in, who would you take? Take the Packers to beat the Bears and cover in the over, Packers 27-20.

Week 5: Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis vs New England, 8:20p, NFLN, (Patriots -10.5, O/U: 50)

It’s the battle of the twelves.  Andrew Luck back at it and revitalizing the Colts/Patriots rivalry that once included former Colts great Peyton Manning.

Both leaders will more than likely be without their top receivers (Hilton, Gronkowski) but Brady still would have Chris Hogan, Eric Ebron and newcomer Josh Gordon.  The running games for both have been coming along with both introducing rookies into thei backfields, leading their rushing attacks with Hines/Wilkins for the Colts and Michel for the Pats.

The Colts defense has looked improved compared to their most recent seasons and actually are near the pace the Patriots have set themselves this season.  The difference maker will be if the Patriots line can stop the defensive front of the Colts since Brady has an obvious lack of mobility.  This will be close early but once Brady gets dialed in, expect him to slowly pull away from the not quite 100% Andrew Luck.

There has been a huge uprising in the league this year where games you thought were a lock were turned upside down in the first few minutes.  Just when you thought, “ok, maybe this one isn’t such a slam dunk given how hard it’s been to nail bets this year”, not so fast my friend, just a friendly reminder, it’s HARD to win in Gillette Stadium.  Take the Patriots to cover in the win and in the under, Patriots 28-17.

#beatyourbookie

Week 4: Thursday Night Football

Minnesota at L.A. Rams, 8:20p, NFLN (Rams -7, O/U: 49.5)

This past Sunday, The Vikes got absolutely embarrassed at home by rookie Josh Allen. I mean, he literally leapt over their best linebacker with ease. The Bills took the opening kickoff and then drove the field 75 yards to a touchdown. Kirk Cousins didn’t help his teams cause or confidence by having 2 sacks fumbles that lead to 10 more points and a Bills 17-0 lead after the first. A good team being embarrassed one week basically means that they get revenge the next however it will be very tough to do so when going on the road against one of the best defenses and one of the best offenses in the league.

The Rams are on fire this year, picking up right where they left off from last year. Granted, they started off with a few softballs with the Raiders and Cardinals but had a bit of a test against a team that’s been a better road team than a home team, in the Chargers. The Rams ultimately beat them and covered the spread. Goff and his numerous weapons have gelled well with McVay’s playbook and they don’t seem to show any signs of slowing down, averaging 34 points/game on offense and only 12/game on defense.

Short week, big spread to cover but the Bills defense isn’t nearly as good as the Vikings and you see how they played in Minnesota last week. Expect the Rams to learn from what they saw Sunday and pressure Cousins all night. Take the Rams to cover in the win, in the over, Rams 31-21.

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1.  Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team.  Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks.  Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers.  Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago.  It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16.  Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever.  Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock.  The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up.  In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game.  It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback.  Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre.  Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle).  The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team).  Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

 

Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year.  First off, thank you.  I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%.  Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself.  Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them.  Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off?  After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks.  How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games.  It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games.  8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them.  Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is.  It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not.  I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks.  Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point.  At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately.  Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons.  The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3!  They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline.  Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league.  The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo.  I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks.  You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin.  Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s.  Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game.  It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target.  After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS.  The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week.  Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

 

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes.  Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games.  Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year.  WRONG!  Belichick corrected that ship.  Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more.  Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks.  On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight.  Sheesh.  Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game.  As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs.  Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning.  Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over.  Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year.  Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent.  Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr.  Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles.  Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras:  World Series talk.  Holy S**t, what a series so far.  2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot.  The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2.  Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling.  Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead.  Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great.  Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Week 6: Thursday Night Football

Welp, (that’s what these kids are saying nowadays right?), the Vikings came oh so close to covering for me last week to push me to an even week.  It would’ve been sweet to come back to you today to at least say, “still only one losing week so far this year”, but no.  Mitch-a-palooza had to play half decent for a rookie getting his first start on Monday night.  Kid can throw and move and throw on the move, wow!  He was hitting guys in the hands near the sidelines while running away from 300 pound guys trying to catch him as a late Monday night snack.  He could be the real deal for them.

Shockers of the week were road teams, Panthers, Jags, Seahawks, Ravens, who were all road dogs and won.  I tell ya, I can’t figure out the 1 o’clock and the Sunday night games.  That seems to be my Bermuda Triangle.  Just take a look, everywhere else I’m excellent:

ATS O/U ATS O/U
Thursday Night Sunday 1p
4-1 2-3 17-25-1 24-19
80% 40% 41% 56%
Sunday 4p   Sunday Night  
11-7 3-4 2-3 2-3
61% 43% 40% 40%
Monday Night   Primetime  (Thr/Sun/Mon)
4-1-1 3-2-1 10-5-1 7-8-1
80% 60% 66% 47%
Bookend Nights (Thr/Mon) Overall
8-2-1 5-5-1 38-37-2 42-34-1
80% 50% 51% 55%

Listen, I don’t want to tell you to stay away from my picks but if you look at my Sunday 1pm games and/or my Sunday night games, please be skeptical at best about them.  On to tonight’s game (where by the way, I’m 80% winners for the year):

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers, 8:25p (Panthers -3, O/U: 45.5)

This is probably the first matchup of the year on Thursday night that pits 2 hot teams against each other, with both teams being 4-1.

The Panthers have seen a resurgence from Cam Newton in the last 2 weeks.  300 yard games, well over 70% completions, 6 TD’s/1 INT.  I must admit, I sold on Cam early and didn’t do my research.  In the last 5 seasons, of Cam’s 6 plus in the NFL, Cam has had a losing record and then followed it with a winning record.  He’s gone from touchdowns in the teens to the 20’s and 30’s in the following year.  There’s something about Cam that must feed off of the doubters because he’s having a career year throwing the ball and I couldn’t have been more wrong about him.

I sold a bit early because I saw the super bowl slump follow him into this year’s first 3 games and couldn’t take any more.  18 games of poor quarterback play with big weapons and he only managed about a TD per game, that’s not winning you jack in fantasy.

Cut to the Panther’s defense who is 3rd in the league going against the Eagles 3rd ranked offense.  It’ll be a showdown to see who will prevail.  Wentz, who has an astounding 3/1 TD/INT ratio, is having a breakout year and has the league buzzing.  He’s big, can move, strong arm, basically everything you look for in a franchise QB, he’s got IT.  The Panthers have one of the leagues worst turnover differentials at -4 (28th) while the Eagles have the leagues 10th best at +2.

This should be a close one and the big selling point for me is the Eagles play on the road.  They’ve gone into Washington against a good team with a top 10 defense and won, into the NFL’s best team and top 2 hardest stadiums to play in on the road (Chiefs) and lost by 7, and went to LA against the Chargers and came away with a 2 point victory.

Carolina’s success recently has been on the road and when home, they were hard to watch.  Yes, Cam has looked great in his last 2 starts and he may do well this week but dink and dunk passes aren’t going to win you games against the Eagles who can really push the ball down the field in chunks.  I consider the Eagles to be either the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFL right now but have Carolina lingering between 8-10 only because of their play the last 2 weeks.

Don’t get too high on Cam just yet (yes, I’m still a bit skeptical with no Olsen and Benjamin 3rd on the team in catches), the Eagles have been a team of consistency this year and that speaks more to the composure of a team rather than hot and cold weeks that Cam has given the last year and a half.  Take the Eagles as road dogs to cover and I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win in the over, 27-24.