Tag: Picks

Week 4: Thursday Night Football

Minnesota at L.A. Rams, 8:20p, NFLN (Rams -7, O/U: 49.5)

This past Sunday, The Vikes got absolutely embarrassed at home by rookie Josh Allen. I mean, he literally leapt over their best linebacker with ease. The Bills took the opening kickoff and then drove the field 75 yards to a touchdown. Kirk Cousins didn’t help his teams cause or confidence by having 2 sacks fumbles that lead to 10 more points and a Bills 17-0 lead after the first. A good team being embarrassed one week basically means that they get revenge the next however it will be very tough to do so when going on the road against one of the best defenses and one of the best offenses in the league.

The Rams are on fire this year, picking up right where they left off from last year. Granted, they started off with a few softballs with the Raiders and Cardinals but had a bit of a test against a team that’s been a better road team than a home team, in the Chargers. The Rams ultimately beat them and covered the spread. Goff and his numerous weapons have gelled well with McVay’s playbook and they don’t seem to show any signs of slowing down, averaging 34 points/game on offense and only 12/game on defense.

Short week, big spread to cover but the Bills defense isn’t nearly as good as the Vikings and you see how they played in Minnesota last week. Expect the Rams to learn from what they saw Sunday and pressure Cousins all night. Take the Rams to cover in the win, in the over, Rams 31-21.

2018 NFL Kickoff: Thursday Night Football

As I sit here and watch the end of the last episode of Hard Knocks with the Browns, I have to start by mentioning how disappointing it was to not see Cajuste get a spot and how shocked I was that they let Nassib go.  I thought for sure Nassib was a lock and with Cajuste having a pretty decent offensive game in the last pre-season game, thought they might keep him but I know they already had 3 solid tight ends so the harsh reality was just seeing him cut.  Anyways, without further ado…..

Welcome to the start of the 2018 NFL season and the start of my predictions machine (hint: I am the machine haha!).

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles: -1, O/U: 44.5):

The Falcons will play a little roll reversal coming into this game as underdogs compared to being favorites going into Philly for the NFC Divisional game last season.  The previous seasons Super Bowl champs are 12-2 in the last 14 season openers.  The average point totals in those games racked up to a whopping nearly 48 points.

The Eagles have many questions coming into this game as Foles had a bad pre-season and they are dealing with a handful of injuries to key players.  Doug Pederson will keep Foles reigned in and focused while calling plays that will be successful and suit his skill set, like he did in the playoffs.

The Falcons roster hasn’t changed much other than adding another offensive weapon via the draft, Calvin Ridley.  The only worrisome note was the drop in offensive scoring output from 33.8 points in 2016 under Shanahan to 22.1 points in 2017 under Sarkisian.  Given that it was the teams first year under Sark, they should see improvement in their consistency, from game to game, in year 2 under his watch.

The game moved 3 points after the official news that Wentz was out and Foles was in as starter for the Eagles.  To be honest, that’s scary but it also gives me what I need to know about the Eagles.  Like I said, Doug keeps Foles in line for this week and keeps the game close but take the Falcons and their high powered offense to cover +1 and win in the over, Falcons 24-21.

There you have it, game one in the predictions column.  Happy football eve everyone!  Don’t forget to thaw the dip, get the family sized bag of Tostito’s and get your order in early to your favorite wing joint…… oh, and good luck!

#beatyourbookie

 

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1.  Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team.  Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks.  Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers.  Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago.  It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16.  Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever.  Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock.  The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up.  In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game.  It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback.  Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre.  Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle).  The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team).  Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

 

Week 9: Monday Night Football

You live and die by half points.  Yesterday, I died by one.  The Titans were a half point away from making yesterday a little better.  But hey, check out that Colts game!  Tom Savage didn’t look good early on this season and he didn’t look any better yesterday.  Two shocks yesterday was how exploited the Broncos defense was and that the Jaguars played so well without Leonard Fournette.  Tough one tonight, lets look at it:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:30p (Packers +2, O/U: 42.5)

Detroit comes into this game with one of the worst yards per play in the league and the Packers have to try and rekindle their offense in the wake of Aaron Rodger’s injury.  Brett Hundley had 2 weeks to better understand the offense and get into rhythm with the first team offense.  The Lions have had their usual passing game but they haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush was in town in 2013 and have only one once in Green Bay since 1992 and it came at the hands of Matthew Stafford in 2013.  Aaron Jones has been a surprise diamond in the rough find for Green Bay, who has been struggling to find consistency in the backfield for years.  I still like Green Bay getting +2 at home against an offense that can’t put the ball in the endzone inside the opponents redzone.  This game either puts me at 50% or 58% so it’s important that I dig down deep on this one.  Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 24-21.

 

Week 9: Thursday Night Football / Week 8: 69% Winners ATS!

What an exciting time to be alive if you’ve been following this blog all year.  First off, thank you.  I have been aiming to give you at least a professional bettors covering percentage, which hovers around 56%-57%.  Not only has this been a fun experience but also some sort of social experiment in a way.

I’ve always talked about getting betting stats down and seeing the outcomes and trends for myself.  Keeping record of how well I’d do if I were to look at every line, every week and bet on all of them.  Would I make out, break even or lose my ass off?  After the first half of the season, I’m seeing trends in my own picks.  How I favor different matchups and spreads, how I look at teams differently after a bye, on a short or long week and now dealing with London games.  It’s all very fascinating to see it laying out in front of your face.

Last week I went for 69% winners! I totally flubbed on the Buccs, Bengals, Dolphins and Raiders however, not even close oon those guys but nailed the other 9 games.  8 games had a spread of a touchdown or more and I hit on 7 of them.  Those games haven’t been a strong point for me this year, until last week that is.  It seems that as this season rolls on, you can figure out who’s legit and whose not.  I feel like I’m at that point but I don’t want to get cocky about it, we’ll just be like Bill Belichick and say I’m on to next week.

Now I’m only sitting at 54% for the year but I’m also trending up with 3 straight winning weeks.  Those wins almost cover the Bovada juice that they charge you per deposit, not that you would make 13 separate deposits just to bet all of the NFL games each week, but you get the point.  At 54%, using Bovada, you could be in the plus.

I’ll give more breakdowns over the next week of my picks and where my picks are trending so that you have an updated idea where I’ve been strong lately.  Anyways, on to tonight’s game:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 8:25p (Jets +3, O/U: 42.5)

Well Thursday night games have mostly been about the bottom of the barrel teams squaring off but here we have some middle of the road teams who are having better than expected seasons.  The Jets basically look at every win a bonus given almost every “analyst” in the country had them losing every game to winning a max of 2-3!  They’d have to be pretty piss poor and lose their remaining games to stay within those predictions but had a great start against some tough teams.

The Jets traded for Rashard Robinson (cornerback) from the 49ers at the trade deadline.  Robinson was a 4th round pick in 2016 from LSU but has been hit with 10 penalties already this year, leading the league.  The Bills went out and got Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers, in which I say is a huge win for Buffalo.  I mean the Panthers don’t even have Olsen back for a few more weeks.  You need all of the big/physical bodies you can get when you’re not an accurate middle to deep ball hurler like Newton.

The Bills are flying high this year with a defense that is playing much better and an offense with some new key parts like Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin.  Tyrod Taylor has been fairly accurate this year and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio, which is great but McCown for the Jets has over 1800 yards, completed over 70% of his throws but has turned the rock over 7 times to his 12 TD’s.  Matt Forte called out his coordinator after the focused on the passing game in the rain last week more than him in the run game.  It was a close game that they ultimately lost to a Falcons team who seems to be lost after last years Super Bowl run.

The Jets added some offensive talent this past offseason but I’m still going to pick the Bills to cover in this one because the Jets are basically the same team as they were when they lost to the Bills earlier in the season and the Bills have upgraded in a key area of their offense, adding a big target.  After all, the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS.  The Jets are 5-2-1 (4-0 at home) but like I said, Bills improved and covered the spread in the week one matchup against these two and will do it again on the road this week.  Take the Bills to cover in the under, Bills 24-16.

 

Week 8: Thursday Night Football

We barely escaped the week with a winning record and on the verge of a really good week or a really bad week with the 2 pushes.  Nevertheless, I had an issue with my bread and butter, the primetime games.  Now I knew that the Falcons were having trouble covering their games but every team that struggles can turn it around with a defense that allows a lot of yards, which the Patriots defense has done a bunch of this year.  WRONG!  Belichick corrected that ship.  Falcons were beyond ineffective until late when they threw Julio Jones’ way more.  Hopefully we can continue this roll with our back to back winning weeks.  On to tonight’s game:

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 8:25p (Ravens -3, O/U: 37.5)

By god, what a barn burner we have tonight.  Sheesh.  Just when you thought the Thursday night games were turning out some good matchups for fans, they hand deliver this turd of a game.  As you just finish your delicious, beautifully constructed meal consisting pan seared steak and baked potato, this pops on your TV to put a bad taste in your mouth.

Cutler did everyone a favor and broke some ribs but the jokes on him, it’s hard to smoke a pack of cigs on the sideline with busted ribs.  Moore stepped in and showed his team why they should’ve had more (no pun intended) faith in him from the beginning.  Moore is a capable fill in until Tannehill takes back over.  Now, Cutler was actually having quite a game before his injury and against a Jets defense that hasn’t looked too bad against some good teams this year.  Cutler exits and Moore comes in to lead them back with 17 points in the 4th to win it.

The Ravens just haven’t been consistent.  Beating a poorly playing Bengals team in week one, the hapless Browns in week 2 and since have been 1-4 with their only win coming against a Raiders team without Derek Carr.  Flacco has looked bad, and they’ve been relying on their running game to pick up the slack which hurts their yards per play and to only average 18 points a game and 35% on third downs just spells out bad football.

I’m shocked that the Ravens are still 3 point favorites given their noticeable offensive struggles.  Take the Dolphins as road dogs to turnout Moore (pun intended) offense this week than under Cutler’s watch and to win this ugly baby of a game on the road in the under, Dolphins 20-14.

Extras:  World Series talk.  Holy S**t, what a series so far.  2 games in, noted at a game a piece, everyone swinging for the god damned fences, hoping for their chance at a memorable World Series moon shot.  The pitching has been great, the power hitting has been unreal and we’ve seen a really quick game one and a longer than normal game 2.  Puig’s stare down after looking a running back to second in the later innings was epic but the Astros comeback was thrilling.  Dodgers showed you how not to blow through your bullpen so quickly with a short lead.  Any-who, looking forward to the game in Houston this weekend, should be great.  Go Dodger dogs, haha!

Week 7: Monday Night Football

Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game.  Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts.  Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)

 A 30-17 arse kicking in Washington is still fresh since it was only week 1.  Since then, they’ve beaten some good teams like the Rams and Raiders, had a good close game with the Chiefs and nearly lost to the 49ers (who are basically quarterbackless).  Kirk Cousins has had to work this season without a number 1 guy. Terrelle Pryor has been a good weapon but not like Cousin’s tight ends, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson leading the team on the ground and through the air.  The Eagles have been considered one of the best teams in the league this season. Carson Wentz has been on fire with Blount leasing the team in the ground ans Ertz through the air.  Kirk Cousins keeps the Redskins moving but the Eagles will be too much for one man.  This will be a shootout but expect the Eagles to complete the sweep and in the over, Eagles 36-29.

 

Week 5: Monday Night Football w/ Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

This week has been another up and down week with some real shockers and major injuries to star players.  We ended Sunday 6-7 against the spread on Sunday and 8-5 with the O/U.  I’m ready to just say scrap my early 1 pm picks and stay with my 4 pm and primetime picks where I’m 21-11-1 (64%).  We need this one to get back to .500, lets see if my primetime greatness (luck) continues…

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 8:30p (Bears +3.5, O/U: 40.5)

Vikings are favorites on the road against a spiraling Bears team who will now turn to their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of Mike Glennon, who committed 4 turnovers last week against their in-division rival Packers.  Trubisky was not a favorite of the fans once drafted but as he got to work this summer, he started turning heads.  The fruits of his labor from the summer come to light tonight.  He will have a two headed monster in the backfield with Howard and rookie Cohen to help get the job done.  The Vikings on the other hand lost their rookie running back sensation, Dalvin Cook, to a season ending knee injury.  They will now turn to Latavious Murray, who was signed this past off season to fill in and do what he was paid $15 million to be the guy, at least for 3 years.  Case Keenum will be under center again with Thielen, Diggs and now Michael Floyd coming back from his suspension.  These two defense have fairly similar stats but it’s how the bears defense can respond to the aerial attack that the Vikings have. The Vikings have surprised is recently without Bradford, continuing to be a force in offense so take them to beat the Bears rookie Trubisky in the over, Vikings 24-20.

Well uncle Colin has finally been defeated as his unprecedented win streak has ended at 4 weeks. He lost with his Lions, Rams, Cowboys, and Texans picks.  He usually loves his dogs in games and this week proves why he shouldn’t have strayed. The Panthers, Seahawks and Packers were all road dogs that were given between a +3 to +2 but then passed on a red hot Chiefs team only giving up -1.  Better pluck next well Colin. 

Week 2: Thursday Night Football

Welcome to week 2 in the NFL.  Piggybacking off of my 60%+ winners against the spread AND with the over/under, we’re starting week 2 with a toughie.  Lets get to it!

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:25p (Bengals -6, O/U: 38):

Yeah you better believe these two teams will keep this puppy in the under.  The way the offenses looked in the openers last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a battle of the kickers.  Houston’s offensive line was atrocious last week but we’re not pointing any fingers or nothing (*ahem* Right Tackle Kendall Lamm *ahem*).  Lamm allowed 3 sacks alone, Xavier Su’aFilo allowed 2 at Left Guard and Left Tackle Chris Clark allowed one.  Savage and Watson were sacked a combined 10 times last week…….10!  That line was worse than a leaking faucet, it was a gushing dam breaking wide open.

Wild card for this week, Watson is starting.  Savage couldn’t get rid of the ball fast enough and he looked like he was stuck in cement.  Watson brings a more mobile ability to the position to get out of the pocket but he’s still a rookie, still developing his pro chops.

The Bengals showed their worst side of their game.  Having an average franchise quarterback.  Dalton has been in this system for years now and still shows nasty inconsistency, even with the weapons he has.  The running game was average.  Bernard averaged over 5 yards per carry but had a 23 yard run mixed in there.  The other 6 carries yielded him less than a 3 yard average.  Hill averaged almost 4.5 yards per carry but had a 12 yard run in there, meaning the other 5 averaged less than 3 yards.  The only thing the Bengals had going for them was their defense didn’t give up a ton.  The only reason the Ravens put up 20 was because of all of the Bengals turnovers.  I mean, neither team cracked 275 net yards!  BORING!

Expect this one to be boring as well, maybe even just as sloppy, which makes this prediction that much harder!  I like Watson getting the start but their defense will suffer with the loss of Brian Cushing to a concussion and 10 game PED suspension, among many other injuries to the squad.  Look for the Bengals to pull it together, somewhat, as a do-over for their fans tonight.  Bengals 20-13.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 7:10p (Vikings -3, O/U 48)

AP coming home, with a new team.  Saints running game has not been all that great since Drew Brees has come to town.  With AP and Ingram in the backfield, the load isn’t all on Brees’ right arm.  Given the Saints addition of the Vikes former franchise star, the Vikes still have that staunchy defense and Bradford has brought some consistency to their air game since Favre retired after the 2010 season.  Brees will be missing Brandon Cooks badly but he is still great and can make something out of that offense however I feel the loss is bigger than the gain.  Yes, I’m aware that AP lead the league in rushing after his major knee injury 3 years ago but he’s 32 and now in a high powered passing offense with Ingram taking touches from him.  Expect the Vikings to play well.  Vikings win 24-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, 10:20p (Broncos -3, O/U 43)

Not much has really changed with the Chargers other than a city change and oh yeah, Keenan Allen is back and healthy again.  It seems as if he’s had some horrible season ending injuries the last bunch of years but when he’s healthy, the Chargers are hard to beat.  That being said, their going into Denver.  This defense is still mostly staffed with players who helped get them to the Super Bowl a few years back.  Don’t count out the Chargers defensive front, lead by Joey Bosa.  They made their presence known last year.  Don’t expect anything less from them.  Denver still doesn’t have a formidable QB which spells trouble for Thomas and Sanders in the fantasy realm but CJ Anderson is giving them another weapon to use.  There isn’t an expectation that there are going to be any major scoring but I do expect it to be over the 43 point O/U marker.  Chargers win 24-21