Tag: Thursday Night Game

Week 5: Thursday Night Football

We are back!  What a week (phew)!  We ended up 56% against the spread and 63% with the over/unders, not too bad, especially with the previous week I had.  The Chiefs stayed undefeated in a hard fought game against the Redskins on Monday night, a game that was wildly entertaining.  Alright, back on track.  Lets keep the ship straightened out now.  On to tonight’s game.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:25p (Patriots -5.5, O/U: 55.5)

This game is going to be a tough one because the wildcard for the Buccs will be if Doug Martin will explode out of the block right away or if they’ll slowly ramp up his carries over the next few weeks.  The Patriots wildcard will be their defense.  The Patriots have one of, if not, the worst defense in the league.

Tom Brady is the one consistent factor of this team.  As long as he’s in the lineup, you basically know what you’re getting on offense and he can take a game away from you in the last 4 minutes of the game.  Their defensive secondary has some real issues, and Bill Belichick takes pride in turning out the best effort from those guys but Winston can throw and has weapons.  I fear they might be too thin and lack too much skill there to stop him.

Jameis Winston has his moments but his poor decision making (at times) could make the Patriots defense look half decent tonight.  He likes to try and force balls into tight coverages and when scrambling for his life, can just throw one up to avoid a sack and loss of major yards.  With Martin back, I can imagine that he a Jacquizz Rodgers will share touches, at least until one shows they’re having a breakout game.  Watch out for Gerald McCoy pushing up the middle on defense.

This is going to be an exciting Thursday Night game with a half decent matchup.  Listen, that was an embarrassing loss last week at home against a struggling Cam Newton and the Patriots have started 2-2 before but they also didn’t have the bad defense then like they do now.  Expect the Buccs to keep it close.  Yes I know, the Patriots don’t lose 2 in a row, that’s why I’m not saying the Pats are going to lose on the road.  I am going to tell you to take the Buccs to cover the +5.5 spread with the Patriots winning in the over, 31-27.

Week 4: Thursday Night Football

Last week didn’t go as planned as we ended well below .500 in one of the strangest weeks in the NFL in my 24 years of being a fan.  No doubt the emotions of last weekend affected players and teams and I believe it affected the product on the field.  I’ve been talking about the politics from last weekend all week long and I’m going to leave it out of the rest off this blog.  It’s been exhaustive. Politics, off.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:25p (Packers -7, O/U: 44.5)

This will more than likely be close early.  Green Bay’s defense gives up big chunks of yards through the air but matchup a little better with the ground game.  The game plan should be simple for the Bears, get plenty of first downs, run often, keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands.  If you can keep the Packers offense off the field, your chance of winning increases tremendously.  Now, I’ve never been a fan of Mike Glennon.  He’s got a nice completion percentage but his coaches have tended to keep him on a leash and not let him loose.  The Bears had a great ground game last week and they’ll look to build on that success this week on the road.  Jordan Howard may lead the team in carries and yards but it’s rookie Tarik Cohen leading the team in yards per carry with 6.5 and the teams leading receiver, giving him a very solid start to his rookie season.  However, that spells trouble for the Bears with trying to stay consistent on offense while keeping possession of the ball.  Green Bay is a tough place to play on the road and Green Bay is one of the best in the league since the turn of the century in winning at home.  Take the Packers to win in the over, 33-17.

Week 3: Thursday Night Football

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers, 8:25pm (49ers +3, O/U: 40)

Sheesh, what a matchup.  These Thursday night games seem to be one bad matchup after another.  Now, the Rams seem to have some things together on offense with their new coach, Sean McVay, but the faith in Goff still isn’t totally there.  The rise of a semi stable passing game has taken a bit of the burden off of Gurley, who is having a good start to his third year in the league.  This will be a battle of defenses all night.  I’m actually shocked the over/under is where it is at 40.  I’m hinting at half of my prediction.

The 49ers defense has been a surprising bright spot of this team.  Losing key players on their defense over the years as hurt them but others have stepped up and a healthy NaVarro Bowman is the piece that leads this defenses success.  Hoyer needs to settle in.  Give the guy a break, it’s rather hard to go from system to system and play against tough defenses to start the season.  If he can get consistent in the short passing game, Hyde can gash the defense, and the 49ers could push for a bounce back season, starting with this game.

Don’t let the Rams early success grab your faith just yet.  This game could really give you a sense as to the capabilities of the Goff.  Look for the 49ers to steal a win as a home dog in the under, because it’ll be an ugly one.  49ers win in the under, 17-16.

Thursday Night Throwdown

This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners.  The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter.  With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back.  For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise.  Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards.  Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over.  He has games like that from time to time.  Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up.  These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Throwdown

Back for the 2015 season. It’s been another long offseason with many news topics that have been discussed and there’s usually one that beats the dead horse and this year it involves the high profiled QB Tom Brady and “deflategate”. Well, it all turned out to be much to do about nothing and his 4 game suspension was over-ruled to which he will be starting the season opener tonight. The Steelers have also had some issues with star players getting into trouble but the suspensions actually sticking, seeing Martavis Bryant out with a 4 game suspension as well as Le’Veon Bell’s 2 games, who coincidentally was with former teammate, now Patriot, LeGarrette Blount, who is also dealing with a suspension of his own.

Nevertheless, the season is upon us, let football begin!

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TV: NBC @ 8:30 p.m.; LINE: Patriots -7.5, O/U 52:

Both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions, luckily for the Pats, Brady avoided his. Now with all eyes, ears and hands all over the Patriots, this will be a huge kickoff (highly rated) for the NFL with all of the surrounding controversy and attention that the Pats have found themselves in this year already. Brady will be ever prepared, as he always is but don’t look for this one to be a high scoring contest. The light rain they are having will start the game off slow and these two defenses aren’t half bad either. Yes, Wilfork is gone and is now pretending to be a kicker during practices with the Texans but the defensive front will still be strong. Troy Polamalu is now retired after acknowledging losing some steps in his game over the last few years. This defense in some ways is younger now so look for them to play refreshed but don’t be surprised with some mistakes sprinkled in. With the new extra point rules, it’ll be interesting to see if the coaches use different strategies in this wet affair. Both quarterbacks are great game managers so there will be no rushing anything.  They both know they can’t allow mistakes to happen since the other will capitalize on them.  No underinflated balls will be helping Tom win this one but look for the Steelers to keep it close. Patriots 24-20.

Check back for a preview of Sunday’s picks! Good luck!

Betting lines provided by Bovada

Week 7: Thursday Night Divisional Throwdown

After 2 straight losing weeks against the spread, I’m back baby. I’ve had record hits on this site and I thank you readers. I try to give you a biased opinion on all of the games and if not truly in depth analysis due to my schedule, at least the main points for each game and my picks obviously. 9-6 last week against the spread and 10-5 on the over/under. By the way, on single day matchups (Thursday and Monday Night games) I am 11-2 with being 7-0 on Monday night games! These are my nights people. The wins I predicted on Thursdays covered on average by 19.5 points with last Thursday being the only nail-biter when the Colts covered by 2. My losses weren’t great though either, losing against the spread by 24.25. Mind you, 5 of the 6 home teams this year on Thursday night won and covered the spread, Redskins got blown out by the Giants a few weeks ago. After week 1 when I picked the Pack over the Seahawks, I started taking the home team on the short practice weeks and it has paid off. Follow trends, bet trends, win on trends. Now to this weeks Thursday night game:

New York Jets @ New England Patriots,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -9.5. O/U: 45:

The Pats are back, and the Jets are back…in the cellar. Rex Ryan chose to go with Geno Smith last game and guess what happened? It still didn’t result in a win. Not that Michael Vick will give them a better chance, given his turnover issues, but switching the QB in the middle of a tough season like the Jets are having can bring life to the team for at least a game or so. Vick is a likeable guy and veteran leader on the team and having him start this game gives the Jets a chance, a small one but none the less, a chance. The main issue for Geno was that he could only do so much when your GM doesn’t put weapons around you to help the college to pro transition. Yeah they got Eric Decker, but when you start a season over $23 million under the cap, that just tells the team, you couldn’t find anyone to come and play in your system and it spews that you do not care about being competitive this year. The Jets offense is sputtering, having trouble in numerous areas like getting to 20 first downs, more than 300 total yards consistently, turnovers, and just the Passing game in general. You have the 32nd, worst in the league, passing game going up against the leagues 3rd best pass defense. Not to mention, Tom Brady and the Pats offense is back. Brady had his first 300 yard pass game and 2nd straight over 275 yard game. In the weeks leading up to that Bengals game, Brady struggled to get close to 250 yards! The Pats defense also pulled out 5 sacks last week. This one will not be pretty for the Jets. They are 0-5-1 against the spread this year, and the losing streak will continue. The line may hit -10 for the Pats but whether it’s that or the line at the top, -9.5, take them to win with the spread and in the Over. I hate swallowing a TD or more in points but the Jets are that bad and the Pats O is back and their defense is much tougher this year. Patriots 31-17.

Week 6: Thursday Night Throw Around

Indianapolis-Colts-vs-Houston-Texans-16th-Dec-2012-300x148Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 46.5:

Mr. Luck has been anything but lucky…he’s been flat out great! He is leading the league in Yards (1,617), TD’s (14) and INT’s (6) interestingly enough. He leads the leagues best offensive pass game, averaging 321.8 yards per game. The Colts at home did a lot of things right, 26 1st downs, over 17 minutes more of time of possession (which is almost unreal), total yards, but also turnovers. Bradshaw had been a surprising bright spot in their offense. He had dealt with a bunch of injuries with the Giants that everyone felt it would continue in Indy. Trent Richardson still looks like he’ll be a bust but Bradshaw has taken a bit of that sting away with his play. Giving Luck that run option opens up the play book for more read option, play action type plays. This shows in Luck’s numbers. As long as Bradshaw stays healthy, Luck stays hot.

The Texans aren’t that simple. Last week they kept it close and almost pulled out a win against the Cowboys. To no surprise though, Fitzpatrick was mediocre, didn’t throw over 160 yards, no TD’s and threw a pick. The difference between a blow out and a 3 point OT loss was Adrian Foster. Over 150 yards, 2 TD’s, while averaging 6.8 yards per carry which is awesome. If the Texans can get the ground game moving early and control the clock, we might have another close one on our hands. Adrian Foster looks like he did a few years ago and has momentum. Look for him to have a good night.

However, take the Colts giving -3 points in the same weather/stadium conditions as in Indy to win and score in the Over. Colts 28-24.

Week 5: Thursday Night Divisional Matchup

Well they say all good things must come to an end. My fantastic 2 week run at handicapping was amazing and I enjoyed sharing that with you but it crashed and burned starting with last Thursday’s Redskins terrible loss. I did however, tell you that the bad streak was over and another good streak will start with Monday Nights game and I didn’t lie. It was known going into the game that the Pats offensive line was going to have trouble and that was an understatement. Brady was held for the 3rd straight game to less than 250 yards and was hit a lot! I hope you’re still believing in me because I still hold an astounding 61% winners against the spread. The over/under predictions, not so much. Now, on to the Week 5 Thursday game…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Packers -8. O/U: 48:
Last week Aaron Rodgers told Packer fans to R-E-L-A-X and he delivered a great outcome for them. The Packers offense was on point, wasting only 1 drive (Missed FG) in all of their 7 drives total. That is amazing in itself. 3 drives were over 60 yards which is average but they also capitalized on their turnovers. They had 2 interceptions against Cutler and returned them at least 40 yards into Bears territory and walked away with 2 TD’s. However, the defense showed that they still have major holes to cover up. The defense let up 33 first downs and almost 500 yards! The rushing game alone allowed 235 yards. If you take the 2 turnovers away and the resulting scores, this game is a TD difference. But it’s hard to deny a pass game as on point as the Packers. Rodgers was 22/28 (78%) for 302 yards and 4 TD’s. Weather may play a part in this game so look for the dismal running game to get more looks. Lacy hasn’t been great, only averaging 3 yards per carry but has only touched the ball an average of 13 times per game, which is very low for a starting RB.

As for the Vikings, early indications for tonight’s game is that Teddy Bridgewater will not play since they will need to rely on him for the rest of the year, they want his ankle to heal properly. But wow, did they pull out a stunner against the Falcons. The Vikes held the Falcons on 7 of their 11 drives to nothing. They still allowed 5 drives over 40 yards (4 being TD’s) but didn’t allow them to get back into by continuing to score on offense. They scored on 7 of their 11 drives, 4 TD’s but managed to get and stay within FG range to rack up some more points. That says more to the fact that the Falcons didn’t know how to stop Teddy. That usually is a case in sports with new/rookie players, there just isn’t enough game film on them to study tendencies and such. That and the Falcons really are like the Saints, terrible on the road. Either way, their defense hasn’t been great in recent years and could be the reason for not making long playoff runs. The Falcons defense allowed 7 of 11 drives to go over 40 yards with an average drive of 49 yards. Conclusion: Teddy Bridgewater could be the real deal! This week, with Ponder starting, they will go right back to mediocrity. They won’t give the same air threat that Teddy gives but the ground game will be all of their highlights.

The Packers vs. the run, is the worst in the league, allowing 176 yards per game, and are going up against the leagues 8th best rushing game in the Vikings. Surprising since AP isn’t the one doing the damage. Matt Asiata has been very effective on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. Don’t sleep on the tandem though, Jerick McKinnon has carried some of AP’s load as well, almost as many yards as Asiata with almost half the carries, averaging almost twice the yards per carry however, that’s all from last game. I’m just saying be aware of the run game. The line has moved from the Packers being favored at -9, to -7.5 to now being -8. Don’t let the line fool you. Christian Ponder is the last guy the Vikings would want under center. He really hasn’t played well since coming into the league and AP took away a lot of negative attention from him because AP was so great.

I think the Packers win big at home against the Vikes. Take the Packers to win with the points -8 in the Over, because I think the Packs defense will give up tons of yardage on the ground but Rodgers seems to have found his groove with both Cobb and has never really been off with Nelson and will rack up some serious air yards if the weather stays fair. Packers 38-20.

Thursday Night NFL Matchup

New York Giants @ Washingotn Redskins,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Redskins -3.5. O/U: 45.5:

The Last meeting between the 2 the Kirk Cousins and the Redskins were in shambles, a 7 game losing streak. well they lost to the Giants making it 8 in a row. The last 3 losses were under Cousins, the first 2 when he took over he was good and ok, keeping the games close. He stumbled greatly in the season finale against the Giants, losing a fumble and throwing 2 picks. This year he took over early on in week 2 and played amazing and won while coming into Philly with the Desean Jackson return and played out of his mind with career highs in completions, yards and TD’s. He gave the Redskins a fighting chance and kept them in it until the end by limiting mistakes (just 1 INT in 48 attempts). The Redskins run game did ok with 84 yards but it only drew 3 yards per carry and the air game was the one that stole the show. The Redskins did a lot of good things under Cousins, more first downs, more possession time, more offense yards overall, more plays, better 3rd down conversion. The penalties were ridiculous, 10-131 but the Eagles also had 9-70. The 2 penalties that the Redskins committed were the pass interference calls of 40 and 21 yards. The first of 40 yards set up a FG and the second of 21 help set up their game winning TD. Granted it was a bitter divisional rivalry and D-Jack’s return to Philly party but the things that kill huge offensive games for teams are bad special teams, turnovers and penalties. The Redskins failed in all 3 but more so evident in the penalty department.

The Giants came off a much needed win against Houston last week. Surprisingly, Fitzpatrick drove the ball down the field a bit (289 yards) but a usually conservative QB, threw 3 picks to just 1 TD. The Giants had more first downs, possession time, less penalties, less turnovers and pounded the ground for almost 200 yards. Eli had a great day going 21/28 for 234 yards and 2 TD’s. The Giants went 5-7 in the red zone, scoring 3 FG’s and 2 TD’s however lost a fumble at the 4 yard line and fumbled a FG snap which caused a turnover on downs. Snapper Zak DeOssie pitched a grounder back to the holder which skipped under his hands. They recovered and nicely for the win. Rashad Jennings played out of his mind, having a career day with career highs in carries and yards.

This game will be a real test for the Giants defense as they are a below average defense. The Redskins are on of the better defenses in the league and is even 3 in yards allowed on the ground. The Redskins will be too tough for the Giants on offense and will put massive amounts of pressure on Manning, possibly turning him back into a turnover machine. That will have to be seen though since the ‘Skins have just lost DeAngelo Hall for the year due to his recently torn Achilles. Take the Redskins to get the win with their tough defense and big time offense, with the points -3.5 in the Over. Redskins 31-20.

Week 3: Thursday Night Divisional Mash up

matt-ryan-pic-2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Falcons -6.5. O/U: 44.5

Atlanta, as I predicted, came out flat last week. Chalk one up for the Saints syndrome. Matt Ryan had gone from showing up big time in week one to disappearing behind his 3 picks last week. The Falcons had a hard time getting anything going in the first half with their longest drive being 40 yards and only getting a field goal from it. In the second half they went 3 and out, pick on first play of second drive in the 2nd half, 10 plays/59 yards/pick, 10 plays/77 yards/TD, 5 plays/6 yards/punt, 10 plays/22 yards/pick. The Buccs have kept their 2 losses to less than a TD difference. The problem is they lost by 6 to a Cam Newtonless Panthers and a Rams team without a true starting QB and their best pass rusher, lost by 2 at home. They are facing a fully loaded and ready to redeem themselves Falcons team. Josh McCown has completed at least 62% or more of his passes but has yet to have a 200 yard passing game. His TD/INT ratio is 2/3 so far through 2 weeks. He has yet to stretch the field beyond a 30 yard pass. That creates a lot of pressure in the box but they are 11th in the league with rushing yards. The star emerging is not Doug Martin, it’s Bobby Rainey who ran for 144 yards in last weeks game. Out of their 20 drives this year, only 7 have climbed above 50 yards and ended like this: 4 TD’s (their only TD’s on the season), 2 INT’s and 1 FG. They are 27th in the league averaging 17.5 first downs per game. The leading team are the Saints with 28. Their drives go like this: 11 drives of 21 over 50 yards ending with 2 FG’s, 7 TD’s, Punt, INT. Granted the Saints are 0-2 but have only lost by a field goal or less in those games. The Buccs need to sustain their long drives, eliminate those turnovers and they’ll result in more points and need to gain more first downs per game. The usual number you would like to see is 20 out of the 60-70 plays a team runs. The key for the Buccs may be for them to stray more towards the running and keeping McCown to shorter, more efficient passes to get those needed first downs. The Falcons are back at home where Ryan is 37-10 at home. He still has Roddy White and Julio Jones in the lineup so far which means bad things for the Buccs secondary. Look for the Falcons to win this one and taking the points -6.5 in the Over, the Falcons will put up points in bunches. Falcons 28-20.