Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game. Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts. Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)
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Welp, (that’s what these kids are saying nowadays right?), the Vikings came oh so close to covering for me last week to push me to an even week. It would’ve been sweet to come back to you today to at least say, “still only one losing week so far this year”, but no. Mitch-a-palooza had to play half decent for a rookie getting his first start on Monday night. Kid can throw and move and throw on the move, wow! He was hitting guys in the hands near the sidelines while running away from 300 pound guys trying to catch him as a late Monday night snack. He could be the real deal for them.
Shockers of the week were road teams, Panthers, Jags, Seahawks, Ravens, who were all road dogs and won. I tell ya, I can’t figure out the 1 o’clock and the Sunday night games. That seems to be my Bermuda Triangle. Just take a look, everywhere else I’m excellent:
| ATS | O/U | ATS | O/U |
| Thursday Night | Sunday 1p | ||
| 4-1 | 2-3 | 17-25-1 | 24-19 |
| 80% | 40% | 41% | 56% |
| Sunday 4p | Sunday Night | ||
| 11-7 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| 61% | 43% | 40% | 40% |
| Monday Night | Primetime | (Thr/Sun/Mon) | |
| 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 | 10-5-1 | 7-8-1 |
| 80% | 60% | 66% | 47% |
| Bookend Nights (Thr/Mon) | Overall | ||
| 8-2-1 | 5-5-1 | 38-37-2 | 42-34-1 |
| 80% | 50% | 51% | 55% |
Listen, I don’t want to tell you to stay away from my picks but if you look at my Sunday 1pm games and/or my Sunday night games, please be skeptical at best about them. On to tonight’s game (where by the way, I’m 80% winners for the year):
| Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers, 8:25p (Panthers -3, O/U: 45.5)
This is probably the first matchup of the year on Thursday night that pits 2 hot teams against each other, with both teams being 4-1. The Panthers have seen a resurgence from Cam Newton in the last 2 weeks. 300 yard games, well over 70% completions, 6 TD’s/1 INT. I must admit, I sold on Cam early and didn’t do my research. In the last 5 seasons, of Cam’s 6 plus in the NFL, Cam has had a losing record and then followed it with a winning record. He’s gone from touchdowns in the teens to the 20’s and 30’s in the following year. There’s something about Cam that must feed off of the doubters because he’s having a career year throwing the ball and I couldn’t have been more wrong about him. I sold a bit early because I saw the super bowl slump follow him into this year’s first 3 games and couldn’t take any more. 18 games of poor quarterback play with big weapons and he only managed about a TD per game, that’s not winning you jack in fantasy. Cut to the Panther’s defense who is 3rd in the league going against the Eagles 3rd ranked offense. It’ll be a showdown to see who will prevail. Wentz, who has an astounding 3/1 TD/INT ratio, is having a breakout year and has the league buzzing. He’s big, can move, strong arm, basically everything you look for in a franchise QB, he’s got IT. The Panthers have one of the leagues worst turnover differentials at -4 (28th) while the Eagles have the leagues 10th best at +2. This should be a close one and the big selling point for me is the Eagles play on the road. They’ve gone into Washington against a good team with a top 10 defense and won, into the NFL’s best team and top 2 hardest stadiums to play in on the road (Chiefs) and lost by 7, and went to LA against the Chargers and came away with a 2 point victory. Carolina’s success recently has been on the road and when home, they were hard to watch. Yes, Cam has looked great in his last 2 starts and he may do well this week but dink and dunk passes aren’t going to win you games against the Eagles who can really push the ball down the field in chunks. I consider the Eagles to be either the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFL right now but have Carolina lingering between 8-10 only because of their play the last 2 weeks. Don’t get too high on Cam just yet (yes, I’m still a bit skeptical with no Olsen and Benjamin 3rd on the team in catches), the Eagles have been a team of consistency this year and that speaks more to the composure of a team rather than hot and cold weeks that Cam has given the last year and a half. Take the Eagles as road dogs to cover and I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win in the over, 27-24. |
Well, yesterday was significantly better than last week however, have you see some of the teams that won? Big road upsets like the Bills over the Falcons, Rams over Cowboys and Panthers over the Patriots. Other upsets included Texans over the Titans and Jets over Jags. A crazy day for sure which we escaped with an 8-7 record against the spread and a fantastic 10-5 record with the over/under. Once again, Uncle Colin knows best.
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 improved to 14-5 (74%) after going 3-1 in yesterday’s games with tonight being the 5th. He’s stated himself that this is the best start ever to his Blazing 5 in it’s 10 year history and might I remind you, he’s hit 70% before (2012-2013) season. He’s onto something here.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7, O/U: 49.5)
Welcome back to one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. It’s also home of the only remaining undefeated team, the Chiefs. They have THE hottest young player in the league with Hunt playing out of his mind in the first 3 weeks. Fans have to be a little worried of his usage after seeing another sensational rookie running back go down with a torn ACL injury (Dalvin Cook). Smith is seeing a career year unfold right before his eyes and I’m not sure, outside of Kansas City, who might’ve seen this coming given a top receiver in Jeremy Maclin bolting for Baltimore.
The Redskins are still looking like a formidable team to compete for a playoff spot and that will be mostly due to their defense and the (so far) consistent Kirk Cousins with his 3 back committee behind him. Chris Thompson has come away as the main weapon for Cousins as he leads the team in rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, yards and touchdowns.
This will be close early but once the 2nd half comes, the experience in coaching will come out with Andy Reid. Alex Smith has truly found where he was supposed to be his entire career and he’ll show it again tonight. Take the Chiefs to win and cover in the over, 36-24.
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5, Colin’s pick in bold:
| Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5) |
Rick Lovato was walking into his uncle and father’s sandwich shop, Joyce’s Subs and Pizza in Linecroft, NJ when he got the call. For the second time this year, he’s going to be long snapping in an NFL game, this time for the Philadelphia Eagles.
It is his third team this year. Lovato was signed by the Packers in late 2015 to fill in for Brett Goode, who went down with a season ending knee injury, then spent the following off season with the Packers, who cut him right before the start of the 2016 season.
Rick then was signed by the Redskins in mid November to fill in for an injured Nick Sundberg, who tweaked his back in the weight room. After 2 games, his services were no longer needed.
Philadelphia now seems to be in need after long-time long snapper and magician, Jon Durenbos, broke his wrist last week warming up for his next snap. “My phone died while I was trying to look at who was contacting me,” Lovato said. “Run to my car, plug my phone in the charger and everyone was like, ‘Philly’s long snapper is down, you need to contact your agent and do all this to get ready.’ As soon as I go home to watch the game and Brent Celek’s in snapping and I’m like ‘Oh jeez, this is bad because, Dorenbos wasn’t even snapping.’” Until Washington signed him for 10 days in November, Lovato had spent the season working at the family sub shop, working out and practicing long snapping every other day with his dad, Rick.
If you’re wondering what a short-term NFL long snapper makes, lets take a look into Rick’s earnings since coming into the league in 2015:
Bears offseason member – $4,500 signing bonus
Packers – $51,176 salary + $4,544 incentive bonus = $55,720
Redskins – $52,940
Eagles – $79,410
From 2015 to the end of the 2016 season, Rick will have made $192,570. Not too bad considering he has only has 3 games under his belt and will only have 3 more games to play this season.
“I’m great at making breakfast sandwiches, subs,” said Lovato. “Those are my two specialties. I can make pizza, but I’m not the best at it.”
America loves stories like Rick Lovato and I damn sure hope he gets to hang on with the Eagles or another club going forward.
Lovato broke into the league in 2015 as a member of the offseason squad for the Bears. He is a 2014 graduate of Old Dominion University and is the only player from Old Dominion to see game action in the NFL.
This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners. The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter. With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back. For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise. Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards. Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over. He has games like that from time to time. Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up. These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.
Week one, Sunday regular season action is upon us. Here are my predictions and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 picks. Good luck to all!
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills +3 O/U: 45
Rex Ryan’s new era in Buffalo begins with Tyrod Taylor as his starter, unfortunately it’s against a tough Colts team lead by the miraculous Andrew Luck. Buffalo’s defense will make it tough on Luck but Taylor won’t get anything going on offense for the Bills. Pick: Colts 27-17
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Bears -7 O/U: 49
No Jordy Nelson, no problem. Green Bay has had depth at receiver for years with the next best guy always stepping up. James Jones was recently signed to add security to the position for the season, back with his favorite elite quarterback in a very familiar offense. Pack don’t miss a step in Chicago but the spread is almost too great for this division rivalry. Pick: Packers 31-21
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Texans +1 O/U: 41
Adding Maclin to the receiving corps will help Alex Smith get some touchdowns to the receivers this year, but the Texans defense is back with two of the biggest defensive ends in the game with Clowney being healthy again. The Texans will be without Foster for this game so look to see the back field platooning. Defense wins the day and the Texans are a home dog so take them. Pick: Texans 17-14
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Jags +3 O/U: 40.5
An intriguing matchup with the Jags toughening defense and the lackluster, nearly weaponless Panthers offense. I am surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick’em given that Bortles started to settle in as an NFL starter late last year. He’s got a plethora of young talent at receiver and with TJ as the new addition to the back field, look for the Jags to set a winning building block this year. Cam tries to do it all in this game which will be dangerous. It’ll be close but Cam can’t get the ball to enough guys to make up for missing Benjamin. Pick: Jags 17-16
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Jets -3.5 O/U: 38.5
The Browns have been piecing together a team for years with no real direction. The defense always seemed to be the lone standout and kept them in a few games but the lack of offense proved to be its main weakness. With the Jets defense always being solid, now adding a sure star in Marshall on the outside as a main target, the Jets will try to move on from Geno slowly and find a winner at QB in Fitzpatrick who can win and keep mistakes to a minimum. No cannon but can give Marshall a big year. Pick: Jets 14-12
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Rams +4 O/U: 41.5
These two always seem to give each other fits and Seattle has never been stellar on the road. The Rams always give good teams trouble on the defensive side but with Foles as their new guy behind center, it may rejuvenate the franchise who were at the mercy of Sam Bradford and his knees. Expect bigger things from the Rams this year but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this yet and had an average year compared to his first with Chip Kelly in Philly. Pick: Seahawks 20-17
Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Redskins +5 O/U: 45.5
The Dolphins anchored their man behind center with a nice new fat contract but now come the expectations. The Dolphins aren’t just going to rely on Tannehill as they added a stud at defensive tackle in Suh. Adding him will make the front defensive line that much tougher. Dolphins go from mediocre to playoff contenders this year. The Redskins have been in a tailspin again this offseason with more RGIII talk. With Cousins starting, they’re offense will have less distraction with injuries and off the field comments but Cousins isn’t their guy and the Redskins should’ve traded him when his value was very high 2 years ago. It must hurt being a home dog by more than a field goal but it’s for good reason. Pick: Fins 31-17
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Cards -2.5 O/U: 48
Jimmy Graham is no longer the main, attractive weapon in Who Dat nation. Brandin Cooks is now the young outstanding weapon opposite Colston that will keep the passing game thriving but still not as hot as it has been in years past. Brees took a bit of a hit in yardage however will still have more than 4,000 yards. The Cards have Palmer back and healthy. With the addition of Chris Johnson and some other young backs platooning in, the Cards could have a moderately successful season if most of the main offensive pieces stay healthy. This game is in doors which is both teams bread and butter. Look for it to be close like the line states but the Cards hold on. Pick: Cards 27-24
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Chargers -3.5 O/U: 46
The Chargers open up at home without their start tight end Gates in the lineup. No more Matthews in the backfield will prove to shortchange the Chargers in the redzone. However the lack off redzone threats for the Chargers, the Lions are without Suh on their defensive front. That will considerably change the dynamic of their pass rush. Nonetheless, both teams still have the ability to air it out. Pick: Chargers 24-21
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Broncos -5 O/U: 47
With new offensive minds for the Broncos and an aging legend who still deals with numbness in his throwing hand, look for the Broncos to tone it down a bit in the air game, especially without Julius Thomas now with the Jags. The running game isn’t a sure bet to take over the offense but the days of 45-50 TD’s in the passing game are over for Manning. The Ravens on the other hand found a gem last year in Forsett. Coupled with the strong armed Flacco and Steve Smith threat, the Ravens are poised to have a good year. Pick: Broncos 27-24
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Raiders +3 O/U: 43
The Raiders all around looked pretty good this off season. Defensively sound and Carr is developing nicely for them. The Bengals are going to put up their typical average season, good start, horrible finish. Teams are now on to Andy Daulton and once under substantial pressure, he will turn the ball over. Look for the Bengals to go to the run game more this year than in the past to limit picks. Pick: Raiders 21-17
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Buccs -3 O/U: 41
The rookie quarterback matchup, Winston and Mariota is what we’ve all been waiting to see. Who made out better. This will show which quarterback was better prepared for their inaugural season. That being said, Winston was drafted into a much better offensive situation than Mariota. With Evans and Jackson on the outside Jenkins at tight end, and Martin/Sims combo in the backfield, the Buccs are going to be riding high this year if Winston can settle into the offense at full pace. Mariota has a little more work to do with the lack of weapons compared to Winston but he is a great game manager and doesn’t make errors often. Pick: Buccs 27-21
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC. LINE: Cowboys -7 O/U: 52.5
Another early divisional matchup pits the revamped Giants offense with Cruz back, the Giants are poised to have a pretty successful air attack again this year. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher in Murray, jetting to another divisional rival, the Eagles, but landed Run DMC formerly of the Raiders. He hasn’t been all that cracked up to be since he was drafted but a new place, new team, new O-line might bring some spark out of him. Still, Romo, Dez and Witten are a tough combo in itself to handle. Pick: Cowboys 30-27
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:
Jaguars (+3) 23-20
Ravens (+5) 27-26
Packers (-7) 34-20
Rams (+4.5) 27-26
Giants (+6) 28-26
Well last week ATS I had a losing record, but if you took all of my picks, you more than likely lost just the juice depending on the bets you made, 7-8-1. Some real surprises were obviously the Eagles against the Vikings and the Cowboys against the Packers. The. Eagles just kept giving the Vikings great field position all game long off the kick offs. How many times did they think Patterson was going to return a kick for a score in the snow? The fact that they kept doing it and only making the Vikings play on a 60-70 yard field was crazy. 2 completions could easily put them in the red zone.
I was torn on the Bengals and Lions because they are young teams and aren’t mentally focused enough to finish the season strong. Obviously the Lions have never been in the lead of the NFC North, they’ve never been there, they don’t know how to start applying pressure to the necks of the other teams and solidify the top spot. Who would’ve thought that the Vikings offense would show up like that, let alone the 3rd string RB Matt Asiata for 3 scores.
The other games that sort of caught me off guard was the Seahawks and Giants, I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to get shutout. The Redskins and Falcons game, I knew Kirk Cousins would play well but never thought he would keep them that close in the game. Even though they covered and hit the over, I didn’t think the Raiders would score 31 but when you score on huge plays and often, when you get the ball back that many times, you’re bound to score that many points. Obviously I thought the Broncos were going to go perfect at home as they have been all year, Rivers and the Bolts showed up to play which was a fear of mine. The Jets played better than I expected on the road but the game luckily/unfortunately ended in a push. Lastly, the Ravens/Lions game. You mean to tell me that you hold a team to only field goals and still can’t win? That in itself is enough said! Congrats to Tucker on being the only kicker in NFL history to hit from 20, 30, 40, 50 & 60 yards in a game.
However, call me a genius on these beauties, Dolphins over the Pats, Bills over the Jags, Colts over the Texans, and the Rams over the Saints. Listen, I have bet against the Dolphins at home too many times this year and got burnt. They’ve played well after opening the season on a horrible losing skid and the Pats were without Gronk. The Jags were without some top offensive players and even though put up ok numbers for this game, but the Jags play terribly at home usually. The Colts were due for a win and it couldn’t have come at a better time than the worst team in the NFL than the Texans. And lastly, the Saints are not the same on the road and the Rams have played very well against good teams at home.
It just goes to show you how hard it is to bet on the NFL, especially with the sort of odds the Sharks put on the games. It’s almost as if they set you up by making some games “must bet on games” and then the outcome is completely the other way. Then you have those games that are a point off, super close, comes down to the last play in the 4th quarter.
You have to watch the trends and ride them because more often than not, they pay out more than you pay in. Some of those trends include, Patriots at home, Broncos at home, Broncos in the over, Ravens home games in the under, against the Patriots on the road. Things like that. Most websites have the most recent trend information like that available for you to use for free.
Look out for my next blog, hopefully tomorrow, with my Thursday game picks and the rest of week 16 analysis and picks.
Cheers!
Welcome back for the rest of my week 15 predictions. Sorry it’s a little late for I was making my way back from Camden, NJ yesterday in the snow storm, took a few hours to drive back. Anyways, enough with the excuses, here are my pick s and quick analysis.
Bills @ Jaguars (Jags +3, O/U 42.5) – Both teams are sitting at 4-9 however the Jags have turned it around in the last few weeks. The Jags are terrible at home and seem to can’t really score in front of their own fans, 1-5 ATS. The Jags are dealing with numerous offensive weapons out for Sunday (Shorts III, Blackmon, Forsett, Jones-Drew). Considering the fact that Shorts didn’t really have much to do with last week’s win and it was MJD’s show, and now he most likely will be out, Take the BILLS and the UNDER, Bills 21 – Jags 9.
Patriots @ Dolphins (Fins -1.5, O/U 46) – The Fins are 3-3 ATS at home and the Pats are 3-3 ATS on the road. After starting the season 0-4 ATS, the Fins are 5-1 ATS since and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games. Look for the Fins to continue that trend and cover by winning at home against the Pats. The passing game for the Fins is starting to come along. Thannehill will have Mike Wallace most likely matched up on Aqib Talib who is dealing with a hip injury and the Pats are missing their top receiver from the past 5 week, Rob Gronkowski. Brady and the Pats usually find a way to win without top players but look for the Fins to put up a fight. Take the DOLPHINS in the UNDER, Pats 20 – Fins 24.
Texans @ Colts (Colts -4, O/U 47) – Both of these teams starting the season with higher hopes than where they are at right now. The Colts have been up and down all season, not really putting together a good string of games or show consistency since losing Reggie Wayne early in the season. The Texans couldn’t shake a bad start and have ended up with an abysmal 2-11 record but in 8 of the 11 loses, they have been within a touchdown or less of their opponent. Keenum is under center for the rest of the year but after looking shaky against the Jags defense last week, I don’t see an improvement this week. Take the COLTS in the UNDER, Texans 17 – Colts 27.
Eagles @ Vikings (Vikings +6.5, O/U 53) – The Eagles come into this game on a nice win out in what seemed to be a blizzard last week. The more amazing stat from last week was not the win but the point total. Virtually abandoning the passing game in the second half, the run game led by Shady McCoy, rushed for 217 yards in that blizzard. The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week and a close one even without Peterson for much of the game. Vikings are a little banged up on the defensive side of the ball and the Eagles defense seems to get better every week. Take the EAGLES in the OVER, Eagles 42 – Vikings 17.
Redskins @ Falcons (Falcons -6, O/U 50) – Without RGIII, look for the Redskins offense to resurge under the helm of Cousins, but don’t expect them to win. While the fresh blood of Cousins will spark some points, the team is torn with all of the uncertainty their franchise QB has for their coach Shanahan. The team seems to have lost some faith in their coach and only will put up some limited sparks with a 100% healthy QB in Cousins. The Falcons have been inconsistent all season however the offense has shown flashes of what it used to be the past few years and against a down and out Redskins and being at home, look for the Falcons to play well. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER, Redskins 17 – Falcons 31.
49ers @ Buccaneers (Buccs +5, O/U 41) – The Buccs have been under-rated with Glennon as their QB and has really matured as the season has come along. Even though their playoff hopes are gone, they would love to play spoiler to a team who is on the verge of locking up a spot and make it tougher for the 49ers to secure a wild card spot. The Buccs defense hasn’t been what it used to be in the early 90’s but has promise. Kaepernick has shown to be shaky when under pressure at times this year and his play directly affects how the 49ers play. Look for a lower scoring game if the Buccs can pressure Kaepernick but look for the 49ers to squeak away with a win. Take the BUCCS and the UNDER, 49ers 20 – Buccs 17.
Bears @ Browns (Browns +1, O/U 44) – This one should be a gimme figuring the Bears giving just a point. Cutler will be back under center and will look refreshed. The Bears under McCown have played well and have kept themselves alive being 7-6 with the Lions who have the tie breaker with the Bears. The Browns have been in a tail spin on offense after losing Hoyer but played really well in New England and even came away with a win, thanks mostly to their defense. The surging Bears will be too much on offense and defense to deal with. Take the BEARS and the UNDER, Bears 27 – Browns 13.
Seahawks @ Giants (Giants +7.5, O/U 42) – This one will shock people. The Seahawks seem to struggle at times, on the road especially going from West Coast to East Coast. The Giants are tired of being called pushovers and have played better as of late going 5-2 in their last 7 games after starting the season 0-6. With Jason Pierre-Paul being out, Justin Tuck has stepped up getting 7 sacks over the past 3 games. Tuck has stated this week that they don’t want to be embarrassed by the Seahawks and so will be clawing all game long to keep the Seahawks offense grounded. The Seahawks have shown that even with some key highlights out on defense, they have the depth to make up for it. They have 28 takeaways, tied for 1st in the NFL while the Giants have the NFL’s most turnovers with 34, much of that from the 0-6 start. This game is important for the Seahawks to wrap up the NFC West so it is a must win for them for the road to the Super Bowl to come through Seattle. Take the GIANTS and the UNDER, Seahawks 20 – Giants 17.
Jets @ Panthers (Panthers -10, O/U 41) – Where do you start on this one? The Jets have played much better at home than on the road and that usually is the given for a rookie QB but on the road, it hasn’t really even been close for the Jets. The Jets are just 1-5 on the road and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Panthers have been covering machines lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 games with covering 7 of those 8 wins and missing the win against the Fins by just .5. Watch for the Panthers to pour more gasonline on the dumpster fire that is the Jets on the road. Take the PANTHERS and the UNDER, Jets 13 – Panthers 24.
Chiefs @ Raiders (Raiders +5, O/U 41) – Hello Chiefs offense. The last 3 games have been fun to watch but the Chiefs are only 1-2 in those 3 games. Their offense has kept them in the games and look for them to keep rolling on top of the Raiders this week. Alex Smith has come to life and the offense looks on point and in mid-season form, getting ready for a nice playoff run. The Raiders have been reeling since losing Terrelle Pryor and a little of that spark in the offense has gone with it. Matt McGloin has done a nice job as a fill in and not bad as an undrafted free agent rookie but he’s no super star but has put up respectable numbers (88.7 QB Rating, 957 Yards, 6 TD’s, 3 INT’s). Take the Chiefs and the OVER, Chiefs 38 – Raiders 17.
Cardinals @ Titans (Titans +2.5, O/U 43) – The cards have shown up these last few weeks and their ATS record shows it, 9-4 (4-0 in the last 4 games). However, the Cards have to travel cross country to face the Titans and road teams usually struggle to put up enough points to have a big win. The Titans defense has seen some tough offenses in the last few weeks, having to deal with the Broncos last week. The Titans offense still hasn’t really had any consistency and even in the running game, the Cards get the edge. Take the CARDS and the UNDER, Cards 20 – Titans 17.
Packers @ Cowboys (Cowboys -6.5, O/U 49.5) – The Cowboys at home are 5-1 and are 4-2 ATS. The Packers are 1-3-1 without Rodgers under center and have looked terrible in the passing game. Eddie Lacy is the reason they are not 0-5-0 in those games and once Rodgers comes back, this offense will look explosive. Until then, stay away from the Packers. Flynn had a decent game last week which they actually won but against the Falcons who have proven to be disappointing and had not lived up to their preseason hype, and the Pack barely won that game. The Cowboys and Romo are looking to shake the December story lines and how they can’t win. This is a must win for the Boys and will need a win to build momentum towards next week and the playoffs later on. Take the COWBOYS in the UNDER, Packers, 20 – Cowboys 28.
Saints @ Rams (Rams +6, O/U 47.5) – People still get excited about the Saints even when they are on the road but the numbers don’t lie. Saints are 1-5 ATS on the road. The Rams are only 3-3 ATS at home but have shown some fight against some really good teams in their dome especially the amazing week 8 win against the Seahawks. Even without Bradford, Clemmens has shined for the Rams. Expect the Rams defense to show up and keep this one as the Saints flounder on the road again. Take the RAMS in the OVER. Saints 24 – Rams 28.
Bengals @ Steelers (Steelers +1.5, O/U 43) – Bengals may be perfect at home but are only 3-4 on the road. With the last road game of the year, they are looking to take a series sweep against the Steelers. The Steelers can’t seem to put things together this year being 5-8 overall. ATS the Bengals are 8-4-1 while the Steelers are just 6-7. I would expect the Bengals defense to pressure Big Ben all game long and the Bengals offense to put up some decent yards through the air. Take the BENGALS in the OVER. Bengals 31 – Steelers 24.
Ravens @ Lions (Lions -6.5, O/U 50) – The Lions are at home this week, thawed off and ready to battle. Expect the Lions defense to dominate with their huge defensive front led by Ndamuhong Suh. Both teams enter the contest 6-7 ATS, but 7-6 overall. Ravens are 1-5 on the road while the Lions are 4-2 at home, however the Lions are 3-3 ATS at home and the Ravens are 2-4 ATS on the road. The Ravens offense won’t keep up with the Lions high powered Offense, especially with explosive Reggie Bush expected to be back in action. Take the LIONS in the OVER but barely, Ravens 23 – Lions 30.
Sorry almost all of these picks are in late, been dealing with the snow/ice storm that hit. These are my honest to God picks and as you can see, some are incorrect with the scores. I will make sure to get them in by Friday. You still have the Bengals and Lions to take, so good luck!
Look for my recap on Tuesday.
Necessary Roughness 