Tag: Chargers

Week 10: Sunday Games w/Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Thursday nights game was close and I nearly hit on the score exactly.  We knew that the game was going to score in the under.  Both defenses are pretty good with the Seahawks being the obvious better team defensively.  Stanton came out as a shocker by besting Wilson in yards but that’ll happen when you throw it 47 times (even though he only completed 24 of them).  I was surprised that the bruiser of a back, AP, was only held to 29 yards but still had 21 carries.  That number just shocks me, I mean, 1.4 yards per carry is what he left the game with.  I’m astounded by that.  I guess you can only bet he’ll have a great game every other week.  Nonetheless, we ended up pushing another game, bringing the total on the year to 6 pushes.  Hopefully the rest of the week doesn’t hinge on whether we could’ve had a good week with this game being a cover or not.  With that said, here’s Sunday’s games:

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills, 1p (Bills +3, O/U: 48)

The Saints look to continue their high flying offense on the road but we all know that usually isn’t a guarantee.  The Bills look to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets last week.  Some feel as though the Bills will come out swinging because of that, but the Saints have a half presentable defense this year.  Take the Saints in the under, 27-20.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears -4.5, O/U: 37.5)

Brett Hundley hasn’t looked like the quarterback that the Packers thought they drafted.  If he’s the guy that they thought would one day be in line to succeed Rodgers, they’re in trouble.  Colin Kaepernick would’ve been the more sensible solution, even a week after seeing Hundley’s first start.  The Bears have turned to Mitch-a-polooza in Chicago where he’s looked pretty good for being a guy who played football at North Carolina.  Their defense is coming around too.  Take the Bears to cover in the under, 21-13.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -10.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Lions still seemed to be firing on all cylinders lately.  They actually showed flashes of a running game.  Stafford has always been great and he’ll continue that.  For the Browns…..well……it’s the Browns.  Take the Lions in the under, 31-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts +10, O/U: 45)

The Steelers tend to play Jekyll and Hyde when playing at home and on the road (worse on the road).  Their defense has been the surprise of the team this year.  They went into Detroit 2 weeks ago and came away the shocking victors.  The Colts have been, well, underwhelming, and that’s not because they’ve screwed me over in 4 of the 5 games I took them in.  They have a highly touted former Patriots backup (which seems to be a thing lately), but without a new offensive line, he could end up like Andrew Luck, who’s prognoses has gone from, back in a few weeks to career ending injury.  Take the Steelers to cover in the over, 31-17. 
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -5, O/U: 41)

This should be a really good matchup.  The Chargers have been noticeably better on the road than at home and actually have looked more comfortable.  They started 0-4 with 3 of those games at home, 3-1 in their last 4 (2-1 on the road).  Fournette is back this week after his one game team levied suspension.  Despite missing last week, he’s 6th in rushing.  If the Chargers can slow down Fournette, they’ll have a real shot at beating a team that has been a real surprise in the league this year.  This could be a real good chance at another push for me but I think that the Chargers could take this one.  Take the Chargers to cover in the over, 24-21.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1p (Buccaneers +1.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Jets are still impressing, especially after taking the Bills to task last week.  Their efforts have kept them in the hunt for a playoff spot (2.5 games back of the AFC East leading Patriots), even for a 4-5 team.  McCown has kept the ball in pretty safe hands while the running game has been keeping defenses honest with a pair of older backs.  The Buccs haven’t lived up to expectations this year and now their young star QB is hurt and will miss a few weeks.  After watching Hardknocks this year, I could’ve sworn this team could’ve turned some heads but now D-JAx is back to attitude he showed Philly on the way out and Fitzpatrick is leading the team.  The line moved 1 point in favor of the Jets since yesterday and I can’t believe that Fitz helped move that line.  Take the Jets to roll in the over, 31-17.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -5.5, O/U: 40.5)

What’s there to say about the Bengals? A team that once had really good regular seasons but fizzled when it came time for playoffs, to a team that just can’t do much of anything. Of their 3 wins, only 1 came against a team at our above .500 (Bills).  The Titans have been a sleeper team to watch all season. They have statement wins against the Jags and Seahawks and are vying to stay atop of their division. Take the Titans to cover in the over, 27-20.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins, 1p (Redskins +1.5, O/U: 40.5)

In the Case Keenum parts of the season, the Vikings have surprisingly been able to survive with a 5-2 record. While their record may be impressive it’s echo they came against that’s as equally unimpressive (Buccs, Bears,  Packers,  Ravens, Browns).  Keenum’s first test comes against a Redskins team flying high off of last week’s win in Seattle. Look for the Redskins offense to be on, as Cousins did his best Aaron Rodgers impression last week. Also look for their pass rush and coverage team too suffocate Keenum. How are the Vikes road favorites in this one? Take the Redskins to cover in the over with a win, 24-21.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -12, O/U: 45.5)

This line rose a point since Friday so that just tells you how Vegas feels about the Texans. They looked bad in week one with Savage and they still looked horrible with him last week losing against the Colts! Talk about surprises in the NFL, the Rams turnaround from last year is amazing. We knew Gurley would have another good season but for Goff to look completely different is the real shock. Now he has better weapons than last year but it’s definitely the change in mindset of this team from their new coach that has them flying. Take the Rams to win handedly in the under, 27-10.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons, 4:25p (Falcons -3, O/U: 48.5)

The Falcons may have one of the best offenses in the league but they just can’t pull away from opponents in their games. Just when you thought they get a decent lead, it’s squandered away late and they have to claw on the 4th. Their schedule up to this point shows the struggle of this season (wins: Bears, Packers, Lions, Jets / losses: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Panthers).  The ‘Boys will be without the only “boy” on their roster (Elliott) as it looks like he finally will be serving his 6 game suspension. They’ll still have some success given the veterans on their roster and the talented Dak Prescott under center. They’ve beaten some really good teams in the last 2 weeks (Chiefs & Redskins) but losing Zeke is huge.  The Falcons will be able to build a lead through the air of their defense can hold the boys on offense. Take the Falcons to cover the in the over, 31-27.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 42)

This one should be an interesting game.  I’m not kidding you, interestingly bad. These offenses are in shambles but their defenses have kept them in games. I don’t have many whimsical stats for you but the excitement of possibly seeing Jimmy Garoppolo is alive and could breathe life into this team if he eventually takes the field today. Take the 49ers to cover in the under, 14-13.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 8:30p (Broncos +7, O/U: 44.5)

The line has come down to 7 which makes this a near “must bet” game. I know Denver has played the Patriots well in the last few years but the had one of the best QB’s to lace them up leading them.  This offense is lackluster, and have been flat all season long. Osweiler got the nod to start last week and it didn’t go very well and while he may have beaten the Patriots the last time Blake faced them, basically all of his key weapons have some sort of nagging injuries and there’s a bunch of tape on his game and if anyone can scour tape and magnify flaws of a bad QB, it’s Belichick and the Pats.  Brady and the Pats are showing everyone how you follow up a Super Bowl win, starting the next session 6-2 with wins like the Saints game in New Orleans.  Don’t expect much to change for them in this game. They’re going to want to get on the board fast and often. Take the Patriots to cover in the over, 31-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:
  • Minnesota -1
  • LA Chargers +4
  • Buffalo +2.5
  • Tampa Bay +2.5
  • Dallas +3

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment.  Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball?  My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks.  I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season.  Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much.  Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite?  Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game?  Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game.  As long as they keep from turning the ball over.  The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season.  I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game.  Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara.  Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
  • Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
  • LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
  • Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

 

Week 6: Thursday Night Football

Welp, (that’s what these kids are saying nowadays right?), the Vikings came oh so close to covering for me last week to push me to an even week.  It would’ve been sweet to come back to you today to at least say, “still only one losing week so far this year”, but no.  Mitch-a-palooza had to play half decent for a rookie getting his first start on Monday night.  Kid can throw and move and throw on the move, wow!  He was hitting guys in the hands near the sidelines while running away from 300 pound guys trying to catch him as a late Monday night snack.  He could be the real deal for them.

Shockers of the week were road teams, Panthers, Jags, Seahawks, Ravens, who were all road dogs and won.  I tell ya, I can’t figure out the 1 o’clock and the Sunday night games.  That seems to be my Bermuda Triangle.  Just take a look, everywhere else I’m excellent:

ATS O/U ATS O/U
Thursday Night Sunday 1p
4-1 2-3 17-25-1 24-19
80% 40% 41% 56%
Sunday 4p   Sunday Night  
11-7 3-4 2-3 2-3
61% 43% 40% 40%
Monday Night   Primetime  (Thr/Sun/Mon)
4-1-1 3-2-1 10-5-1 7-8-1
80% 60% 66% 47%
Bookend Nights (Thr/Mon) Overall
8-2-1 5-5-1 38-37-2 42-34-1
80% 50% 51% 55%

Listen, I don’t want to tell you to stay away from my picks but if you look at my Sunday 1pm games and/or my Sunday night games, please be skeptical at best about them.  On to tonight’s game (where by the way, I’m 80% winners for the year):

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers, 8:25p (Panthers -3, O/U: 45.5)

This is probably the first matchup of the year on Thursday night that pits 2 hot teams against each other, with both teams being 4-1.

The Panthers have seen a resurgence from Cam Newton in the last 2 weeks.  300 yard games, well over 70% completions, 6 TD’s/1 INT.  I must admit, I sold on Cam early and didn’t do my research.  In the last 5 seasons, of Cam’s 6 plus in the NFL, Cam has had a losing record and then followed it with a winning record.  He’s gone from touchdowns in the teens to the 20’s and 30’s in the following year.  There’s something about Cam that must feed off of the doubters because he’s having a career year throwing the ball and I couldn’t have been more wrong about him.

I sold a bit early because I saw the super bowl slump follow him into this year’s first 3 games and couldn’t take any more.  18 games of poor quarterback play with big weapons and he only managed about a TD per game, that’s not winning you jack in fantasy.

Cut to the Panther’s defense who is 3rd in the league going against the Eagles 3rd ranked offense.  It’ll be a showdown to see who will prevail.  Wentz, who has an astounding 3/1 TD/INT ratio, is having a breakout year and has the league buzzing.  He’s big, can move, strong arm, basically everything you look for in a franchise QB, he’s got IT.  The Panthers have one of the leagues worst turnover differentials at -4 (28th) while the Eagles have the leagues 10th best at +2.

This should be a close one and the big selling point for me is the Eagles play on the road.  They’ve gone into Washington against a good team with a top 10 defense and won, into the NFL’s best team and top 2 hardest stadiums to play in on the road (Chiefs) and lost by 7, and went to LA against the Chargers and came away with a 2 point victory.

Carolina’s success recently has been on the road and when home, they were hard to watch.  Yes, Cam has looked great in his last 2 starts and he may do well this week but dink and dunk passes aren’t going to win you games against the Eagles who can really push the ball down the field in chunks.  I consider the Eagles to be either the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFL right now but have Carolina lingering between 8-10 only because of their play the last 2 weeks.

Don’t get too high on Cam just yet (yes, I’m still a bit skeptical with no Olsen and Benjamin 3rd on the team in catches), the Eagles have been a team of consistency this year and that speaks more to the composure of a team rather than hot and cold weeks that Cam has given the last year and a half.  Take the Eagles as road dogs to cover and I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win in the over, 27-24.

 

Week 4: Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, we opened up with a great win.  Boy did that game look ugly for the Bears.  They had the game plan I talked about in the last post however, couldn’t stick to it.  Not because the game strayed away from it but because they couldn’t hold onto the football early on.  Lots of early turnovers and giving the ball to Aaron Rodgers instead of keeping it from hi, put them in an early hole that they never could escape.  I always feel hesitation when swallowing a touchdown but I couldn’t pass there and now we have a few Sunday to choose from.  There’s work to do for my comeback off of a really bad week.  This week I’m going to pick just a handful of games to write about and then just give you my picks for the rest.  Lets get to it.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (L), 9:30a (Dolphins +3, O/U: 50.5)

This one scares me only because teams that play in London one week, have the next week off.  I wonder how much of a distraction Adrian Peterson is in the locker room, calling for some more touches.  Take the Dolphins in the under, 27-21.

 
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -8, O/U: 48.5)

Bills looked good last week at home against one of the best defenses in the league but the Falcons are monsters at home.  I don’t like swallowing a touchdown or more but you need to have an amazing offense to cover, which the Falcons have.  Take the Falcons to win in the Over, 38-13.

 
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens +3, O/U: 42.5)

This game will surely disappoint on offense but if you’re a defense kind of game.  As long as you’re a defense guy, this is a heckuva matchup. Ravens are more consistent at home, and the Steelers unravel away from Heinz Stadium.  Some outlier stats is that the Steelers are 0-4-1 against the spread with the Ravens with the underdog being 4-0-1 in those same meetings.  Take the Ravens in the under, 17-10.

 
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 41.5)

Bengals and Browns.  Probably the worst matchup of the season.  Bengals FINALLY scored some touchdowns last week!  I think the Bengals pull this one out in front of the dog pack.  Bengals in the under, 20-14.

 
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, 1p (Cowboys -6.5, O/U: 48.5)

This line started around -9.5 and -10 in some areas, went to -6 and now at -6.5.  That tells me that Vegas, doesn’t know if they can truly trust a Rams line.  Cowboys are tough at home and will more than likely win this game but it’ll be closer given that the Rams have a new coaching staff that has this offense clicking.  The defense has always been solid but never had a complimentary offense.  The Rams will break that unreal Cowboys offensive line here and there but Dak is too good when escaping the pocket.  This is a favorite by nearly a touchdown that I just can’t pull the trigger on.  Take the Rams in the under but the Cowboys to win, 24-21.

 
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans +2.5, O/U: 43.5)

Titans even on the road will roll on the Texans.  Watson may shine a bit but the Titans are sneaky good this year on both sides of the ball.  Take the Titans in the over, 27-17.

 
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

Another NFC North matchup this week.  Once again, no Sam Bradford but we all have seen how capable this team is with or without him.  The Vikings have some really solid weapons other than Diggs.  The Lions are coming off of a heartbreaking loss due to a replay basically taking away a touchdown.  The bets are swinging around 54% Lions -46% Vikings.  That is too close to touch for most bettors but if your feeling lucky, listen up.  Take the Lions in the over, 31-27.

 
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -9, O/U: 49.5)

I want to give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt, that they’ll keep it close and respectable but I can’t.  Again, another touchdown, plus spread that the favorite will cover given the lack of available weapons and a declining Cam Newton.  Take the Patriots to win in the under, 34-13.

 
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +3, O/U: 38.5)

The Jets defense has awoken.  I know what you’re gonna say, “but Jacksonville looked so good last week in London and blew out the Ravens”.  Well, again, I go back to how things used to be.  There’s more London games this year and thus has resulted in you not getting the next week off if you play there. In turn, it’s basically a short week for the team with all of that travel.  Take the Jets as home dogs to win it in the over, 21-20.

 
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Another big spread for the week and again one that I think gets covered by the home team.  Typically if a team plays Thursday night the week before and Sunday the next week, I like taking them with the extra few days of preparation.  Those extra days aren’t going to help the 49ers who last week gave up a ton of yards and points to the Rams.  Now they eventually came back with a valiant effort but ultimately, still lost.  The 49ers were given a +3 spread last week at home, this week +6.5.  Only a 3.5 point difference and that is basically a 3 point swing for being away now.  So to me, that’s saying that the Cardinals are viewed as .5 point favorites over the Rams.  I don’t buy that yet.  Larry Fitzgerald will have another solid matchup this week given how bad the 49ers secondary is.  Take the Cardinals in the under, 31-10.

 
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -2.5, O/U: 47.5)

LeGarrette Blount had himself a game last week.  Look for him to bust loose again with Sproles out for the season with the multitude of injuries sustained in last weeks game (knee/wrist).  Smallwood will be peppered in there as a change of pace back and Wentz will be told to launch the big chunk yardage plays when he can.  The Chargers are 0-3 this year and playing their home games in a soccer field.  There’s even talks about if the Chargers should stay or go back to San Diego.  Even with their defensive front, I think this team has already lost the edge.  Take the Eagles to win in the over, 35-17.

 
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05p (Buccaneers -3, O/U: 44.5)

Gosh, where do I begin?  Winston can’t keep himself from making poor decisions with the ball through the air, even with the weapons he has.  The Giants looked a bit better last week with OBJ back and healthy last week.  They are still struggling with their ground game but making it work with 4 different guys.  The Buccs also banged up on defense, especially their front.  Take the Giants to win in the over, 26-20.

 
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -3, O/U:46)

Rivalry game with a really good and young offense going to the house of a really good, veteran defense that have won a super bowl recently.  The Broncos, while not having a household name at quarterback, have been consistently gaining yards and scoring, complementing their defense well.  The Raiders defense, especially through the air, has been atrocious.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 24-17.

 
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks -13, O/U: 41.5)

This line I have no clue how it blew up to 13.  I mean, it even grew a .5 point since the line opened.  The Seahawks offense, even at home, has been absolutely terrible.  They only scored 12 points at home against the 49ers a few weeks ago.  What is the logic behind this line?  Brissett is a capable quarterback and proved it last week with the start and win at home over the Browns.  This game is looking juicy for a Colts bet.  Take the Seahawks to win but the Colts to keep it close in the under, Colts 17-10.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 on the year is an amazing 11-4 to start 2017, here’s his picks for the week:

Giants (+3) @ Buccs
Steelers @ Ravens (+3)
Rams (+8) @ Cowboys
Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)
Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

 

Week 1 Recap: 60%+ Winners Baby!

Week 1 has come and gone with some pretty shocking results and injuries.

The first week of the NFL season for fans is an exciting time, holiday like for most of America.  Take it from me, I’m a huge hockey guy and I don’t get this excited over the NHL’s opening week of the season.  However you celebrated, there is always this massive expectation of upsets, blowouts, and key injuries.

Thursday had all of them rolled into one game.  Cheesy banner hoisting celebration, shocking Vegas point spread of 9, shocking upset from the underdog, key injuries from Danny Amendola’s concussion and Eric Berry’s torn Achilles, and the game was basically a blowout.

Sunday was much of the same, Ravens blowout/shutout the Bengals, Jags shockingly blowout the Texans, Rams took the Colts to the woodshed, and we saw the loss of one of the top 2 best running backs in the game, David Johnson, get a dislocated wrist which will more than likely have him out 2-3 months.

We saw a bunch of rookies take control of their respected positions and make key differences in games, TJ Watt, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Kenny Golladay, Tarik Cohen, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Haason Reddick, and Cooper Kupp.

Wow, what a first week!

Now to my predictions.  I shocked myself.  I pulled out some close ones and some really caught me off guard but to have 61.5% winners ATS and 64.28% winners with the O/U for the first week?  I’ll take that a run with it.  I’m a genius, football psychic, I have the crystal ball of the NFL and baby, I’m just handing out free cash left and right.

The “what if’s”.  I was a late Tarik Cohen TD and a blocked Chargers field goal from having those pushes as winners (66%) and if Forbath doesn’t miss his extra point, my O/U’s would’ve been the same (66%).

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

How did Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 do?  He stated it was the best opening week since he’s been doing it.  He went 4-1 picking the Eagles (-1), Ravens (+3), Lions (+2), and Packers (-3).  Obviously the 49ers (+5.5) were the ones that prevented him from a perfect record to start.

Come back Thursday for the tomorrow nights matchup and prediction.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 7:10p (Vikings -3, O/U 48)

AP coming home, with a new team.  Saints running game has not been all that great since Drew Brees has come to town.  With AP and Ingram in the backfield, the load isn’t all on Brees’ right arm.  Given the Saints addition of the Vikes former franchise star, the Vikes still have that staunchy defense and Bradford has brought some consistency to their air game since Favre retired after the 2010 season.  Brees will be missing Brandon Cooks badly but he is still great and can make something out of that offense however I feel the loss is bigger than the gain.  Yes, I’m aware that AP lead the league in rushing after his major knee injury 3 years ago but he’s 32 and now in a high powered passing offense with Ingram taking touches from him.  Expect the Vikings to play well.  Vikings win 24-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, 10:20p (Broncos -3, O/U 43)

Not much has really changed with the Chargers other than a city change and oh yeah, Keenan Allen is back and healthy again.  It seems as if he’s had some horrible season ending injuries the last bunch of years but when he’s healthy, the Chargers are hard to beat.  That being said, their going into Denver.  This defense is still mostly staffed with players who helped get them to the Super Bowl a few years back.  Don’t count out the Chargers defensive front, lead by Joey Bosa.  They made their presence known last year.  Don’t expect anything less from them.  Denver still doesn’t have a formidable QB which spells trouble for Thomas and Sanders in the fantasy realm but CJ Anderson is giving them another weapon to use.  There isn’t an expectation that there are going to be any major scoring but I do expect it to be over the 43 point O/U marker.  Chargers win 24-21

 

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

Week 1 – Sunday Roundtable with Colin Cowhed’s Blazing 5

Week one, Sunday regular season action is upon us.  Here are my predictions and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 picks.  Good luck to all!

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills +3 O/U: 45
Rex Ryan’s new era in Buffalo begins with Tyrod Taylor as his starter, unfortunately it’s against a tough Colts team lead by the miraculous Andrew Luck. Buffalo’s defense will make it tough on Luck but Taylor won’t get anything going on offense for the Bills. Pick: Colts 27-17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Bears -7 O/U: 49
No Jordy Nelson, no problem. Green Bay has had depth at receiver for years with the next best guy always stepping up. James Jones was recently signed to add security to the position for the season, back with his favorite elite quarterback in a very familiar offense. Pack don’t miss a step in Chicago but the spread is almost too great for this division rivalry. Pick: Packers 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Texans +1 O/U: 41
Adding Maclin to the receiving corps will help Alex Smith get some touchdowns to the receivers this year, but the Texans defense is back with two of the biggest defensive ends in the game with Clowney being healthy again. The Texans will be without Foster for this game so look to see the back field platooning. Defense wins the day and the Texans are a home dog so take them. Pick: Texans 17-14

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Jags +3 O/U: 40.5
An intriguing matchup with the Jags toughening defense and the lackluster, nearly weaponless Panthers offense. I am surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick’em given that Bortles started to settle in as an NFL starter late last year. He’s got a plethora of young talent at receiver and with TJ as the new addition to the back field, look for the Jags to set a winning building block this year. Cam tries to do it all in this game which will be dangerous. It’ll be close but Cam can’t get the ball to enough guys to make up for missing Benjamin. Pick: Jags 17-16

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Jets -3.5 O/U: 38.5
The Browns have been piecing together a team for years with no real direction. The defense always seemed to be the lone standout and kept them in a few games but the lack of offense proved to be its main weakness. With the Jets defense always being solid, now adding a sure star in Marshall on the outside as a main target, the Jets will try to move on from Geno slowly and find a winner at QB in Fitzpatrick who can win and keep mistakes to a minimum. No cannon but can give Marshall a big year. Pick: Jets 14-12

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Rams +4 O/U: 41.5
These two always seem to give each other fits and Seattle has never been stellar on the road. The Rams always give good teams trouble on the defensive side but with Foles as their new guy behind center, it may rejuvenate the franchise who were at the mercy of Sam Bradford and his knees. Expect bigger things from the Rams this year but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this yet and had an average year compared to his first with Chip Kelly in Philly. Pick: Seahawks 20-17

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Redskins +5 O/U: 45.5
The Dolphins anchored their man behind center with a nice new fat contract but now come the expectations. The Dolphins aren’t just going to rely on Tannehill as they added a stud at defensive tackle in Suh. Adding him will make the front defensive line that much tougher. Dolphins go from mediocre to playoff contenders this year. The Redskins have been in a tailspin again this offseason with more RGIII talk. With Cousins starting, they’re offense will have less distraction with injuries and off the field comments but Cousins isn’t their guy and the Redskins should’ve traded him when his value was very high 2 years ago. It must hurt being a home dog by more than a field goal but it’s for good reason. Pick: Fins 31-17

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Cards -2.5 O/U: 48
Jimmy Graham is no longer the main, attractive weapon in Who Dat nation. Brandin Cooks is now the young outstanding weapon opposite Colston that will keep the passing game thriving but still not as hot as it has been in years past. Brees took a bit of a hit in yardage however will still have more than 4,000 yards. The Cards have Palmer back and healthy. With the addition of Chris Johnson and some other young backs platooning in, the Cards could have a moderately successful season if most of the main offensive pieces stay healthy. This game is in doors which is both teams bread and butter. Look for it to be close like the line states but the Cards hold on. Pick: Cards 27-24

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Chargers -3.5 O/U: 46
The Chargers open up at home without their start tight end Gates in the lineup. No more Matthews in the backfield will prove to shortchange the Chargers in the redzone. However the lack off redzone threats for the Chargers, the Lions are without Suh on their defensive front. That will considerably change the dynamic of their pass rush. Nonetheless, both teams still have the ability to air it out. Pick: Chargers 24-21

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Broncos -5 O/U: 47
With new offensive minds for the Broncos and an aging legend who still deals with numbness in his throwing hand, look for the Broncos to tone it down a bit in the air game, especially without Julius Thomas now with the Jags. The running game isn’t a sure bet to take over the offense but the days of 45-50 TD’s in the passing game are over for Manning. The Ravens on the other hand found a gem last year in Forsett. Coupled with the strong armed Flacco and Steve Smith threat, the Ravens are poised to have a good year. Pick: Broncos 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Raiders +3 O/U: 43
The Raiders all around looked pretty good this off season. Defensively sound and Carr is developing nicely for them. The Bengals are going to put up their typical average season, good start, horrible finish. Teams are now on to Andy Daulton and once under substantial pressure, he will turn the ball over. Look for the Bengals to go to the run game more this year than in the past to limit picks. Pick: Raiders 21-17

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Buccs -3 O/U: 41
The rookie quarterback matchup, Winston and Mariota is what we’ve all been waiting to see. Who made out better. This will show which quarterback was better prepared for their inaugural season. That being said, Winston was drafted into a much better offensive situation than Mariota. With Evans and Jackson on the outside Jenkins at tight end, and Martin/Sims combo in the backfield, the Buccs are going to be riding high this year if Winston can settle into the offense at full pace. Mariota has a little more work to do with the lack of weapons compared to Winston but he is a great game manager and doesn’t make errors often. Pick: Buccs 27-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC. LINE: Cowboys -7 O/U: 52.5
Another early divisional matchup pits the revamped Giants offense with Cruz back, the Giants are poised to have a pretty successful air attack again this year. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher in Murray, jetting to another divisional rival, the Eagles, but landed Run DMC formerly of the Raiders. He hasn’t been all that cracked up to be since he was drafted but a new place, new team, new O-line might bring some spark out of him. Still, Romo, Dez and Witten are a tough combo in itself to handle. Pick: Cowboys 30-27

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:
Jaguars (+3) 23-20
Ravens (+5) 27-26
Packers (-7) 34-20
Rams (+4.5) 27-26
Giants (+6) 28-26

Week 4: Sunday Games Preview, Game and Spread Predictions

So I was completely wrong about Thursday nights game. The exact opposite happened and well, you win some and lose some. Btw, for-warning you, I started to write reviews for the games this week but was extremely busy towards the end of the week and got 2 lengthy ones done. The rest will be quick blurbs and my predictions with the spreads and overs/unders. I hope you understand.

Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders (London),
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -4. O/U: 41
Welcome to the game of bottom feeders. Both are reeling from loses last week but also trying to shake their persona this year of being a bad team. The Dolphins seem like they are trying to shake free of their “franchise ” QB. Reports have been that the Dolphins are starting to lose patience with Tannehill, who hasn’t been playing like a franchise QB since he was drafted. Now in his 3rd year, he still doesn’t look like he can lead them to the post season even with a guy like Mike Wallace as a legit deep threat and a half decent running game with Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller. Their defense hasn’t been too bad either so there is only one explanation, #17. At this point, Tannehill’s career numbers are the same averages as his predecessor Chad Henne, except Henne could drive the ball down field and averaged more yards per pass with less of a receiving corps. Tannehill gets the start Sunday but he was a whopping 21/43 last week and that’s not going to get it done if he plans on keeping his job. Oakland on the other hand doesn’t even have a running game they can rely on when the passing game isn’t working. MJD is hurt, DMC isn’t the back they hoped for, averaging 3 or less yards per run and they let Rashad Jennings go to the Giants who is now having a great start to his season. However, the Raiders take some sort of momentum into the game Sunday after keeping up with the Patriots last week. The Raiders only had 3 drives of 50 or more yards but none over 57 and 2 just had 50 yards. Outside of those 3 drives they had drives of 20, 26, 8, 29, 9, & 1 yard. They even started that 29 yard drive in Patriots territory. I hate hypotheticals but if they were to turn that 29 yard drive into a TD instead of the FG they got, we’re talking about a different game here, a 3 point game. So while both defenses were tough, the Raiders hung in there with one of the best teams in the league with, arguably, one of the best QB’s the league has ever seen. Their defense played well on the road, look for them to play well in London. Hopefully Carr will continue to improve and start making himself look like a gamer. Also take into account that the Raiders are in London already, and the Dolphins are still practicing in the states. For the Dolphins to come over so late, look for them to have some serious troubles adjusting once they land and start to prepare for the game. I think the Raiders win, easily covering the points +4 but in the Under. Raiders 24-10.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2 O/U: 51:
Aaron Rodgers sounded like his west coast, cool self when talking to his fans about the Packers slow 1-2 start. R-E-L-A-X chirped Rodgers. No time to relax when they have the Bears coming up next in Chicago. The last time these 2 met it was for the NFC North title and a playoff birth last year. The Packers miraculously came back and won in dramatic fashion. It will be tough for them Sunday, if they continue to bring their lackadaisical offense with them. The running game hasn’t been much this year to which they are relying on Aaron’s arm a little too much. Chicago who’s defense is in the bottom half of the league (15th best in passing allowed, 233/game & 26th in rushing allowed, 144.7/game). Maybe this will be the game Green Bay gets their act together offensively and rack up some yards. The Pack have the 28th best offense, but with Charles Tillman out for the Bears, look for the Pack to finally R-E-L-A-X and get back to winning. Take the Pack to win with the points, -2, and in the Over. Packers 31-24

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Texans –3.5. O/U: 40.5:
This will be painless. Fitzpatrick showed he can still do things with his arm, having his first 250+ yard game this year (289). He still threw 3 picks though. The Texans defense will trouble EJ so much that they implode. The Bills and Texans haven’t been that great either in their 3 games, who both showed their true colors last week. Take the Texans at home with the points, in the Over. Texans 24-17.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts -7.5. O/U: 46:
Locker is out for the Titans so Charlie Whitehurst gets the nod. The Colts tore up a bad team in The Jags last week in Jacksonville. luck set a career high in completion percentage with 79.5% while throwing for 370 yards and 4 TDs. Look for much of the same in this one especially being in Indy. Take the Colts with the points to blow out the Titans in the Over. Colts 31-17.

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 40.5:
Steve Smith Sr gets a chance to show his old team why they shouldn’t have let him go so easily. He’s been a big deep threat for Flacco early in the season. Cam shows that he didn’t need a top paid receiver to do well, as his new fav is Kelvin Benjamin. It will be a tough and physical game. Look for the Ravens to shut down the Panthers non existent run game and force Cam into mistakes. Ravens will take this one at home but take the Panthers for the points in the Over. Ravens 24-21.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 1 p.m. FOX. Line: Steelers -7.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Buccs are still having trouble getting any consistent play from the QB position. They’ve had limited success from their RB Rainey but he is prone to fumbling. The Steelers have found a gem in Le’Veon Bell who leads the AFC with 305 yards rushing and average per carry of 5.9. Blount gives a great compliment option who can break out for big yardage as well. Take the Steelers to pound the Buccs with the points in the Over. Steelers 31-17.

Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions – 1.5. O/U: 45:
The Lions are a totally different team on the road. That has carried over from the last few years. The Jets have had a tough schedule so far this year. Sunday won’t be any different. Geno is in charge of the offense but still needs to make better decisions in tough spots. There will be some offensive troubles in this one. The Jets will have a hard time handling the offense the Lions will drop on the,. Take the Lions to win with the points in the Under. Lions 24-17.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -13. O/U: 44.5:
The Jags pulled Chad Henne and altered their Blake Bortles plan by putting him in and starting him Sunday. Bortles looked fairly good in relief duty throwing for 223 yards, 2 TDs, 2 picks. Phillip Rivers has had a great start throwing 913 yards, 7 TDs and just 2 picks. The Jags have a new starter but that won’t help all of the yards their defense gives up. The spread is just too big, so take the Chargers to win in the Over but take the Jags for the spread. Chargers 31-20.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons –2.5. O/U: 47:
The Vikes also put their rookie in last week but due to injury to Cassel (broken foot). Adrian Peterson. Is still out but Asiata has been a decent fill in. The Falcons also seem to have the road bug the Lions do, losing their only road game in terrible fashion. Matt Ryan won’t have another tough road game this week and will lead the Falcons to a road win with the points and but in the Under. Falcons 28-17.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: 49ers -4.5. O/U: 50.5:
The Eagles get a tough test on the road against a very strong Niners defense. The Eagles has a hard time getting into a groove and keeping it all game long. The Eagles have had a tough time getting the run game going which will continue to struggle Sunday. The Niners will take advantage of that and after losing to the Cardinals last week, and the Bears the week before, you better believe that Harbaugh won’t let them get into his first 3 game losing streak since taking over. Extra motivation because of that will get a 49er win with the points and in the Under. 49ers 31-17.

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Saints -3. O/U: 53:
The Saints could easily have been 3-0 but have not held offenses well. This may be much of the same, allowing a bunch of points. The Saints don’t particularly cover spreads on the road so easily but Dallas has issues on offense that tends to stall for big stretches during games. They barely pulled off a win against the reeling Rams. Look for the Saints to hit a grove and finally prove that the Cowboys defense has been a fluke. Take the Saints to win with the points in the Over. Saints 35-27.

Check out the blog tomorrow for my Monday night game prediction a preview. Good luck everyone.

Week 15 Recap

Well last week ATS I had a losing record, but if you took all of my picks, you more than likely lost just the juice depending on the bets you made, 7-8-1. Some real surprises were obviously the Eagles against the Vikings and the Cowboys against the Packers. The. Eagles just kept giving the Vikings great field position all game long off the kick offs.  How many times did they think Patterson was going to return a kick for a score in the snow?  The fact that they kept doing it and only making the Vikings play on a 60-70 yard field was crazy.  2 completions could easily put them in the red zone.

I was torn on the Bengals and Lions because they are young teams and aren’t mentally focused enough to finish the season strong. Obviously the Lions have never been in the lead of the NFC North, they’ve never been there, they don’t know how to start applying pressure to the necks of the other teams and solidify the top spot. Who would’ve thought that the Vikings offense would show up like that, let alone the 3rd string RB Matt Asiata for 3 scores.

The other games that sort of caught me off guard was the Seahawks and Giants, I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to get shutout. The Redskins and Falcons game, I knew Kirk Cousins would play well but never thought he would keep them that close in the game. Even though they covered and hit the over, I didn’t think the Raiders would score 31 but when you score on huge plays and often, when you get the ball back that many times, you’re bound to score that many points. Obviously I thought the Broncos were going to go perfect at home as they have been all year, Rivers and the Bolts showed up to play which was a fear of mine. The Jets played better than I expected on the road but the game luckily/unfortunately ended in a push.  Lastly, the Ravens/Lions game.  You mean to tell me that you hold a team to only field goals and still can’t win?  That in itself is enough said!  Congrats to Tucker on being the only kicker in NFL history to hit from 20, 30, 40, 50 & 60 yards in a game.

However, call me a genius on these beauties, Dolphins over the Pats, Bills over the Jags, Colts over the Texans, and the Rams over the Saints. Listen, I have bet against the Dolphins at home too many times this year and got burnt. They’ve played well after opening the season on a horrible losing skid and the Pats were without Gronk. The Jags were without some top offensive players and even though put up ok numbers for this game, but the Jags play terribly at home usually. The Colts were due for a win and it couldn’t have come at a better time than the worst team in the NFL than the Texans. And lastly, the Saints are not the same on the road and the Rams have played very well against good teams at home.

It just goes to show you how hard it is to bet on the NFL, especially with the sort of odds the Sharks put on the games. It’s almost as if they set you up by making some games “must bet on games” and then the outcome is completely the other way. Then you have those games that are a point off, super close, comes down to the last play in the 4th quarter.

You have to watch the trends and ride them because more often than not, they pay out more than you pay in. Some of those trends include, Patriots at home, Broncos at home, Broncos in the over, Ravens home games in the under, against the Patriots on the road. Things like that. Most websites have the most recent trend information like that available for you to use for free.

Look out for my next blog, hopefully tomorrow, with my Thursday game picks and the rest of week 16 analysis and picks.

Cheers!