Week 12: Monday Night Football

Tennessee at Houston, 8:20p, ESPN (Texans -4, O/U: 43)

The Titans have been an up and down team all year long.  They have wins against the Texans earlier this year as well as the Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys and Jaguars.  They’ve also lost by 1 at the Bills and at the Chargers but also were blown out by the Ravens at home and the Colts in Indy.  Mariota has been fairly efficient with the ball, completing a career best so far 67.6% of his passes however, 7 TD’s to 6 picks and only a measly 1500 yards isn’t going to help the team.  The league has been accommodating offenses and especially in the passing game.  If Mariota can’t consistently get to the 250-300 yard mark with at least 2 TD’s each game, he will be replaced.

The Texans will be playing tonight with heavy hearts after their owner Bob McNair passed away just days ago.  After starting the year off 0-3, they’ve righted the ship to go on a 7 game winning streak.  The Texans passing game has also been light on yards and Watson hasn’t been so careful with the ball with his 2:1 td/int ratio but they’ve been playing much better on defense and getting after the quarterback.  JJ Watt has had a sack in each of his last 3 games, 10 in the last 8 weeks only missing out on the sack party in weeks 1, 2 and 7, and he looks to continue that tonight.  Clowney adds another 6.5 sacks in his 9 games played, 4 in his last 4 weeks.  They’ll be hungry to go after Mariota, a squirrely quarterback but can be caught in his pocket from time to time.

Take the Texans to cover in the over, Texans 28-20.

8-6 so far this week, it’ll be a winning week but lets make it a 60% week with a cover tonight!  Good Luck all!

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Sunday Games

Arizona at Kansas City, 1:00p, FOX (Chiefs -15.5, O/U: 50)

These games are always tough to put money on but the Chiefs have beaten better teams by two touchdowns. The issue with the Cardinals is their offense and the lack of points being scored. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 38-18.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets -7.5, O/U: 38)

This game isn’t going to be pretty with McCown in for an injured Darnold and Allen coming back from his concussion. Allen gives the Bills the best chance to win obviously because he has been the jack of all trades given he led his team in rushing up until his injury. Take the Bills to cover and win in the under, Bills 17-14.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -3, O/U: 48)

Reports out of Jacksonville state that the locker room is pissed off and will play as such being on a four game slide. Fournette is scheduled to make his return this week. Luck has been on fire this season and his much much much improved offensive line hasn’t allowed him to be sacked in the last 3 weeks. That truly gives us a sense as to what Luck can do with time in the pocket even without big name receivers. This is one of the games of the week to watch. Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 24-20.

New England at Tennessee, 1:00p, CBS (Titans +7, O/U: 47.5)

It’s a big spread on the road to cover. If at home, this spread would say that the Patriots would be favored by 13. I had a hard time with this given how inconsistent the Titans have been this year. Other things to consider, Gronk is out for Brady and the Titans have been tough against the run. It’s hard to go against Brady/Belichick so don’t, take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 24-14.

New Orleans at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals +6, O/U: 54)

The Saints are coming off of a big time win last week at home that saw them start off HOT but completely cool off in the 2nd half but still held off the high powered Rams offense. The Bengals line many good, not great, teams play so much better at home in front of their fans. Andy Dalton had played well this year but can fall under the spell of the turnover bug but rarely does so at home. No Green to throw to will limit this offense. I think the line is fare. Take the Saints to cover in the win in the over, Saints 31-24.

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3, O/U: 51)

Fitzmagic is back and looked about as good as he did before Winston came off suspension. The defense still had trouble stopping teams and the Redskins have looked good with the resurrection of AP in the backfield and field general Alex Smith moving the offense. The Redskins pass rush has looked good in recent weeks and will continue that trend this week. Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-21.

Atlanta at Cleveland, 1:00p, FOX (Browns +6, O/U: 51)

The Browns are in disarray even though they’re scoring, their defense isn’t playing to the caliber they’re used to and they are now facing their third high powered offense in 3 weeks. Julio Jones is finally on the score sheet which will give him more motivation to get in again today. Take the Falcons to cover in the over, Falcons 35-24.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00p, FOX (Bears -7.5, O/U: 44)

The Lions looked atrocious on offense last week, allowing Stafford to get sacked 10 times! The Lions will be missing key defensive players. Mack will be back so look for more of the same view from the turf for Stafford. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland, 4:05p, FOX (Raiders +10, O/U: 50)

I feel like I say this 8 times a year but again, the Chargers are a better team on the road. The Raiders are also another team in turmoil and their offense is LACKING. Take the Chargers to easily cover in the under, Chargers 31-17.

Miami at Green Bay, 4:25p, CBS (Packers -10.5, O/U: 48.5)

I understand that Osweiler has played well in his 4 starts but they’re going to the frozen tundra. Rodgers will have Valdez-Scantling getting more snaps in Allison’s absence, who had shown in previous games that he is a rookie that can offer big play ability along with Cobb and Adams. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 34-17.

Seattle at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, CBS (Rams -9, O/U: 51)

The Rams haven’t covered in the last few weeks and are coming off a huge game against the Saints on the road. They’ve also dealt with less practice time due to taking Friday off to help family and friends evacuate their homes due to the fires. Russell Wilson rarely loses by over a touchdown and they’ve played inspired football lately. Take the Rams to win an emotional game by the Seahawks to cover in the loss, in the under, Rams 27-21.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles -7.5, O/U: 44)

This will be another sloppy game by Dallas. They don’t have the weapons to give Dak many options. The Eagles added Golden Tate to the corps of receivers for Wentz to help make up for the lack of power in the backfield. Take the Eagles to cover big in the over, Eagles 27-14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • New Orleans at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (+5.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-3)
  • New England at Tennessee – New England (-6.5)
  • Seattle at LA Rams – Seattle (+10)
  • Dallas at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6.5)

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Carolina at Pittsburgh, 8:20p, NFLN (Steelers -3.5, O/U: 51.5)

Finally, we get a game on Thursday worthy of most football fans’ time.

The Panthers have enjoyed the last couple of games with Eric Reid on board to help the defense as the offense keeps rolling at home.  On the road, it’s a little bit of a different story where Cam stays the same but the offense doesn’t score as much.  History points to the Panthers as being a weak road team and even though they’ve lost 2 of 3 on the road (their only 2 losses), they were within 7 points in both games.  In fact, Cam has been stellar as far as his completion percentage and passer rating.  Cam is certainly having a career year but not only is Cam playing well, Christian McCaffrey is having a fantastic sophomore season in the NFL as well.

The Steelers have enjoyed a 4 game winning streak that started after a week 4 loss at home to division foe, Ravens.  That loss put them 0-2 at home and 1-2-1 overall with the season in peril, uncertainty with the Bell situation, turmoil in the organization with AB until they met the high flying Falcons at home the next week.  They haven’t looked back since.  Yes Big Ben has thrown 7 picks but also has 16 touchdowns, Conner slightly outperforming Bell from last year with the same amount of starts and Brown might not have a ton of yards or a great average per catch but has 9 touchdowns.  The defense has been in lockdown mode the last 4 weeks.

With the defense in lockdown mode, take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-27.

#beatyourbookie

Week 9: Sunday Games

Chicago at Buffalo, 1:00p, FOX (Bills +10, O/U: 38.5)
Nathan Peterman getting the start tells you much of how this game will go. Mack isn’t playing today but I don’t think it will matter for the ending outcome. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 28-10.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1:00p, CBS (Ravens -1, O/U: 46)
Conner is tearing it up in Bell’s absence and in fact, the Steelers offense has been more explosive without him. The Ravens have struggled lately with a 1-4 record in their last five games since beating the Steelers in their house back in week 4. Take the Steelers to get retribution against a struggling purple birds team and cover in a win, in the under, Steelers 24-20.

Atlanta at Washington, 1:00p, FOX (Redskins -2, O/U: 47)
The Falcons struggled last week against a not so great Giants team before their bye last week and didn’t play well defensively all season long. Smith and Peterson have been hitting a good stride lately and have statement wins against the Packers and Panthers, both at home. Another plus for the Redskins, the acquisition of Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. Take the Redskins to cover in the over, Redskins 28-24.

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00p, FOX (Vikings -5, O/U: 47.5)
Trading away Golden Tate was baffling and hurts the Lions offense. No Diggs, no problem for the Vikes. Take the Vikings to cove in the over, Vikings 31-21.

Kansas City at Cleveland , 1:00p, CBS (Browns +9, O/U: 52)
There seems to be no stop to this KC offense, don’t expect it to slow today. How does anyone expect a team to do well against a team like the Chiefs when you fire both your head coach and offensive coordinator in the same week? So the Browns have moved their defensive coordinator, Greg Williams and moved him to the interim head coaching slot which means his focus has come off of the defense a bit, which has played pretty good this year. Mayfield will now have a second offensive coordinator in his rookie year and this guy hasn’t even called plays in the NFL. Take the Chiefs to cover big in the over, Chiefs 38-20.

N.Y. Jets at Miami, 1:00p, CBS (Dolphins -3, O/U: 41.5)
The 3 big named receivers in this game are all active after being questionable (Enunwa, Anderson for the Jets and Still for the Dolphins). The Jets have struggled in the last few weeks without both receivers but with them, Darnold has been very good and matched the hype. Osweiler has been serviceable since Tannehill was injured but the question is, as it has always been in regards to his play, is when will he drop? Take the Jets to steal one on the road and cover in the win, in the over, Jets 27-20.

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00p, FOX (Panthers -6, O/U: 55)
Fitzmagic is back under center as a starter for the Buccs and they looked good once Winston was benched and nearly stole one on the road against the Bengals. Cam and the Panthers have had solid back to back weeks (away win in Philly and home win against the Ravens). Cam is as accurate as he’s ever been with Norv Turner tapping into every great aspect Cam gives in his athletic ability. Buccs defense is one of the worst in the league and they give up a ton of points. Take the Panthers to cover in the over, in a close one now that Fitz is back, Panthers 31-24.

Houston at Denver, 4:05p, CBS (Broncos -1, O/U: 46.5)
I’m shocked the Broncos are still 1 point favorites in this matchup given the trade of their longtime receiver Demaryius Thomas to their opponents today. Their secondary is still suffering even though their font 8 has been solid. The Texans placed Will Fuller on the IR and needed a replacement to keep this run to the playoffs alive and DT adds that extra big receiver to help Watson and Hopkins. Take the Texans to cover in the win, in the under, Texans 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Seattle, 4:05p, CBS (Seahawks -1, O/U: 48)
The Seahawks offensive line has awaken. They have been extremely reliable and since week 2, they have been 4-1 and the sole lose came by 2 points in LA against the Rams. The Chargers are sneaky good on the road and Rivers is having a career year, a career last 2 years really and he’s looking to keep it going against a less potent secondary than years past. Take the Chargers to cover in the win, in the under, Chargers 24-21.

L.A. Rams at New Orleans, 4:25p, FOX (Saints +1.5, O/U: 57)
What else can I say about this game? It will be a shootout and most of you will have to go with your guts on this. Bother offenses are competing at high levels and the defenses have to do what they can, anything, to hang on. Take the Saints to cover and upset the Rams with a win and in the over, Saints 35-31.

Green Bay at New England, 8:20p, NBC (Patriots -6, O/U: 56.5)
Gronk was again questionable this week with a banged up ankle and back. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been very humble this week with all of the “what do you think about” each other questions but they know this is a big game and very important for both team. The Packers losing Clinton-Dix hinders their secondary but Tom rarely throws many deep passes in this day in age. This may be a homer pick but take the Packers to cover in the WIN (because they’ve beaten Tom before), in the over, Packers 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:

Detroit at Minnesota – Minnesota (-5)
LA Chargers at Seattle – LA Chargers (+1)
LA Rams at New Orleans – LA Rams (-1)
Green Bay at New England – New England (-5)
Tennessee at Dallas – Tennessee (+5.5)

Week 9: Thursday Night Football

Oakland at San Francisco, 8:20p, NFLN (49ers -1, O/U: 44)

The only thing this matchup has is the rivalry aspect going for it……wait….check that….the rivalry emotions just hit the IR along with all of the stars from both teams.

You’re in for a sloppy one between these two.  Two of the worst teams in the league all around are squaring off to get one more win than the other, in a season full of losses.  While Carr has shown life on the road in his last 3 games (901 yards passing), they’ve also blew chances at wins like in the Indianapolis where they were torched for 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.  Bright sides are that they didn’t trade anyone on the deadline, Carr showing life on the road (keeping his tears for his pillow at night) and Dougie Fresh Martin looked solid last game with 72 yards on the ground.  Dark spots, the Raiders whole pass rush was traded to Chicago since they have 7 sacks all season long (only 1 per game on average).

The 49ers are going to be leaning on undrafted rookie Nick Mullens since CJ Beathard can’t squeeze a football with his throwing hand.  If that doesn’t tell you about the state of the 49ers, then take a peak at their IR where you’ll find the chosen one, Jimmy Garapolo and savior running back, Jerick McKinnon, both sitting there with season ending knee injuries.  The interesting thing about the 49ers is that even with CJ under center, they’ve been in almost every game this season with about half of their losses being within a touchdown, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games, some of those with Jimmy G.

Take the Raiders to cover in the win, in the under, Raiders 17-14.

#beatyourbookie

Week 8: Monday Night Football

New England at Buffalo, 8:15p, ESPN (Bills +14, O/ 44.5)

Last week I mistakenly thought that Josh Allen was starting and totally blew that pick which helped me finish 7-7 and not 8-6, silly me, poor write up, that’s what I get.  I won’t make the same mistake this week however.  Seeing the score of the Bills game last week made me realize that Josh Allen was the glue that held that ship semi above water.  He was the saving grace to give some hope in possibly covering spreads like this one given his raw talent and fiery competitiveness.  Derek Anderson used to be a capable fill in but not on short notice with a brand new team, trying to learn an offense and gain trust in receivers in 2 weeks.

The Patriots absolutely love coming into these divisional matchups against a weaker team like the Bills.  They love establishing who the king is, who owns the division, how great they are.  Belichick will run up the score in the first 3 3/4 quarters of the game and if necessary, they’ll still slap you in the face in that last 1/4th of the fourth quarter.  They just don’t have fun, they might a little since Gronk is on the team but they show up to do a job, say their peace to opposing players on the team and leave.  That’s what they do and that’s how they’ve been mentally focused since 2000.

Game note, Josh Gordon will sit the first several series for being late to a team meeting.  He’s feeling the wrath of Bill Belichick just 6 weeks into his stay with the Patriots.  Could that be a sign that he’s already slipping?  We shall see in the coming weeks.

It’s one of the leagues best versus one of the leagues worst.  It’s been 10 years since Monday night football has been in Buffalo and after tonight, it’ll be 10 years until they come back.  Take the Patriots to cover in the win and in the under, Patriots 28-10.

#beatyourbookie

Week 8: Sunday Games

Philadelphia at Jacksonville, 9:30a, NFLN (Jaguars +4, O/U: 44)

The Jaguars are benching their former number 1 pick and settling with Cody Kessler. Their defense will still be tough but Wentz doesn’t turnover the ball (10 touchdowns to 1 pick). Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 24-14.

Baltimore at Carolina, 1:00p, CBS (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 44)

The Ravens haven’t impressed much on offense but their defense is one of the top 3 in the league. The Panthers are usually pretty good at home and steal wins Sunday good teams at home when they’re the underdogs. Cam has had a solid year and Run CMC has been a beast in his second year. Take the Panthers to cover in the win, in the over, Panthers 24-21.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00p, CBS (Steelers -8, O/U:48.5)

There’s a mess brewing in Cleveland (surprise) and Haley is being questioned. Baker is having trouble getting the offense I into the end zone. Steelers are great in front of their fans. Big Ben has turned the ball over a bunch this year and the Browns have caused a bunch of turnovers but can’t capitalize on those with points. Take the Steelers to cover in the under, Steelers 24-14.

Denver at Kansas City, 1:00p, CBS (Chiefs -10 O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs in the over, Chiefs 42-28.

N.Y. Jets at Chicago, 1:00p, CBS (Bears 9, O/U: 43)

Take the Bears to cover in the over, Bears 28-17.

Seattle at Detroit, 1:00p, FOX (Lions -3, O/U: 49)

Take the Seahawks to cover in the win, on the under, Seahawks 17-14.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals -4, O/U: 54.5)

Take the Bengals to cover in the over, Bengals 31-24.

Washington at N.Y. Giants, 1:00p, FOX (Giants +1.5, O/U: 44)

Take the Redskins in the over, Redskins 27-20.

Indianapolis at Oakland, 4:05p, CBS (Raiders +3, O/U: 51)

Take the Colts to win in the under, Colts 24-17.

Green Bay at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, FOX (Rams -7.5, O/U: 57)

Take the Packers to cover on the loss, in the over, Rams 38-35.

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25p, FOX (Cardinals +2, O/U: 41)

Take the 49ers to cover in the over, 49ers 27-17.

New Orleans at Minnesota, 8:20p, NBC (Vikings +2, O/U: 54.5)

Take the Vikings to cover in the win, in the over, Vikings 31-28.

Colin Cowherd’s Balzin 5:

  • NY Jets at Chicago – Chicago (-7)
  • Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (-4.5)
  • Seattle at Detroit – Seattle (+3)
  • San Francisco at Arizona – San Francisco (pk)
  • Green Bay at LA Rams – Green Bay (+9.5)

#beatyourbookie