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Week 2: Thursday Night Football

Welcome to week 2 in the NFL.  Piggybacking off of my 60%+ winners against the spread AND with the over/under, we’re starting week 2 with a toughie.  Lets get to it!

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:25p (Bengals -6, O/U: 38):

Yeah you better believe these two teams will keep this puppy in the under.  The way the offenses looked in the openers last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a battle of the kickers.  Houston’s offensive line was atrocious last week but we’re not pointing any fingers or nothing (*ahem* Right Tackle Kendall Lamm *ahem*).  Lamm allowed 3 sacks alone, Xavier Su’aFilo allowed 2 at Left Guard and Left Tackle Chris Clark allowed one.  Savage and Watson were sacked a combined 10 times last week…….10!  That line was worse than a leaking faucet, it was a gushing dam breaking wide open.

Wild card for this week, Watson is starting.  Savage couldn’t get rid of the ball fast enough and he looked like he was stuck in cement.  Watson brings a more mobile ability to the position to get out of the pocket but he’s still a rookie, still developing his pro chops.

The Bengals showed their worst side of their game.  Having an average franchise quarterback.  Dalton has been in this system for years now and still shows nasty inconsistency, even with the weapons he has.  The running game was average.  Bernard averaged over 5 yards per carry but had a 23 yard run mixed in there.  The other 6 carries yielded him less than a 3 yard average.  Hill averaged almost 4.5 yards per carry but had a 12 yard run in there, meaning the other 5 averaged less than 3 yards.  The only thing the Bengals had going for them was their defense didn’t give up a ton.  The only reason the Ravens put up 20 was because of all of the Bengals turnovers.  I mean, neither team cracked 275 net yards!  BORING!

Expect this one to be boring as well, maybe even just as sloppy, which makes this prediction that much harder!  I like Watson getting the start but their defense will suffer with the loss of Brian Cushing to a concussion and 10 game PED suspension, among many other injuries to the squad.  Look for the Bengals to pull it together, somewhat, as a do-over for their fans tonight.  Bengals 20-13.

Week 1 Recap: 60%+ Winners Baby!

Week 1 has come and gone with some pretty shocking results and injuries.

The first week of the NFL season for fans is an exciting time, holiday like for most of America.  Take it from me, I’m a huge hockey guy and I don’t get this excited over the NHL’s opening week of the season.  However you celebrated, there is always this massive expectation of upsets, blowouts, and key injuries.

Thursday had all of them rolled into one game.  Cheesy banner hoisting celebration, shocking Vegas point spread of 9, shocking upset from the underdog, key injuries from Danny Amendola’s concussion and Eric Berry’s torn Achilles, and the game was basically a blowout.

Sunday was much of the same, Ravens blowout/shutout the Bengals, Jags shockingly blowout the Texans, Rams took the Colts to the woodshed, and we saw the loss of one of the top 2 best running backs in the game, David Johnson, get a dislocated wrist which will more than likely have him out 2-3 months.

We saw a bunch of rookies take control of their respected positions and make key differences in games, TJ Watt, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Kenny Golladay, Tarik Cohen, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Haason Reddick, and Cooper Kupp.

Wow, what a first week!

Now to my predictions.  I shocked myself.  I pulled out some close ones and some really caught me off guard but to have 61.5% winners ATS and 64.28% winners with the O/U for the first week?  I’ll take that a run with it.  I’m a genius, football psychic, I have the crystal ball of the NFL and baby, I’m just handing out free cash left and right.

The “what if’s”.  I was a late Tarik Cohen TD and a blocked Chargers field goal from having those pushes as winners (66%) and if Forbath doesn’t miss his extra point, my O/U’s would’ve been the same (66%).

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

How did Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 do?  He stated it was the best opening week since he’s been doing it.  He went 4-1 picking the Eagles (-1), Ravens (+3), Lions (+2), and Packers (-3).  Obviously the 49ers (+5.5) were the ones that prevented him from a perfect record to start.

Come back Thursday for the tomorrow nights matchup and prediction.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 7:10p (Vikings -3, O/U 48)

AP coming home, with a new team.  Saints running game has not been all that great since Drew Brees has come to town.  With AP and Ingram in the backfield, the load isn’t all on Brees’ right arm.  Given the Saints addition of the Vikes former franchise star, the Vikes still have that staunchy defense and Bradford has brought some consistency to their air game since Favre retired after the 2010 season.  Brees will be missing Brandon Cooks badly but he is still great and can make something out of that offense however I feel the loss is bigger than the gain.  Yes, I’m aware that AP lead the league in rushing after his major knee injury 3 years ago but he’s 32 and now in a high powered passing offense with Ingram taking touches from him.  Expect the Vikings to play well.  Vikings win 24-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, 10:20p (Broncos -3, O/U 43)

Not much has really changed with the Chargers other than a city change and oh yeah, Keenan Allen is back and healthy again.  It seems as if he’s had some horrible season ending injuries the last bunch of years but when he’s healthy, the Chargers are hard to beat.  That being said, their going into Denver.  This defense is still mostly staffed with players who helped get them to the Super Bowl a few years back.  Don’t count out the Chargers defensive front, lead by Joey Bosa.  They made their presence known last year.  Don’t expect anything less from them.  Denver still doesn’t have a formidable QB which spells trouble for Thomas and Sanders in the fantasy realm but CJ Anderson is giving them another weapon to use.  There isn’t an expectation that there are going to be any major scoring but I do expect it to be over the 43 point O/U marker.  Chargers win 24-21

 

Week 1: Sunday Games

We made it!  The first Sunday.  Here is the schedule along with Covers.com spread and the over/under.  Below is Cowherd’s Blazing 5.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, 1:00pm (Bills -8, O/U: 40)

Two teams looking to purposely tank this year, Jets more than the Bills.  I really don’t know what to say about it other than both teams being stinkers.  Bills win 24-10.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears, 1:00pm (Bears +6, O/U: 48.5)

Powerhouse offense against a softie in the NFC.  No proven leader for the Bears makes this one an ugly game for them.  Falcons win on the road and exact a little revenge for the 28-3 super bowl disaster.  Expect a road blowout.  Falcons win 38-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00pm (Bengals -3, O/U: 41.5)

This is usually a great game with great defenses clashing.  I like the Bengals offense more but they have to deal with their top linebacker being suspended.  Should be a close one.  Bengals win 21-14.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 1:00pm (Browns +9, O/U: 46.5)

Well, another year has arrived for the Browns and another rough start is awaiting them.  Some of the most dynamic players in the league are on the Steelers roster.  Expect another blowout on the road.  Steelers win 41-13.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions, 1:00pm (Lions +2.5, O/U: 48)

Time for Stafford to show off the most expensive arm in the league.  Cardinals defense should be ready for the task.  Lions win 31-28.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1:00pm (Texans -5, O/U: 39.5)

What an abysmal game. I see many turnovers coming.  Houston strong brings a certain strength. Texans 24-10.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 1:00pm (Titans -3, O/U: 50.5)

Raiders going across the country to the Titans.  Titans look to be a top 5 team in the league.  Should be a great showdown against 2 young stars under center.  Titans defense is the difference maker. Titans win 20-14.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, 1:00pm (Redskins +1, O/U: 48)

Eagles look to build on a very successful rookie season for Wentz while the Redskins deal with another average year from Cousins.  Eagles win 27-21.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05pm (Rams -4.5, O/U: 41.5)

No Luck for the Colts in LA.  We get to see if Goff can take advantage of that since his offense will probably have the most time on the field.  Rams win 24-13.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 4:25pm (Packers -3, O/U: 51)

Always an amazing week one matchup.  Seattle makes it tough against the Pack but the Pack are pretty damn good at home.  Lacy doesn’t make a huge impact coming back to Lambeau with the packers front 7.  Packers win 35-31

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25pm (49ers +5, O/U: 47.5)

Panthers have to fly cross country to play this one, and usually that affects teams pretty good.  Expect Cam and the Panthers to play well given being on the west coast.  49ers basically have new management and have Hyde and Garcon to lead this offense with formidable Hoyer under center. Panthers win 28-24.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30pm (Cowboys -4, O/U: 47.5)

Zeke is loose, no suspension but OBJ has an ankle issue and is a game time decision.  Many think he’ll sit but it’s still not certain.  Cowboys win 34-21.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Eagles -1

49ers +5.5

Ravens +3

Lions +2

Packers -3

 

NFL Week 1: Season Opener

Welcome back to another NFL season!

This year, it just feels like it is going to be a great one.  The draft came and went with lots of quality depth for the running back and wide receiver positions.  Fantasy draft season hits and you’re suddenly thrown into the conundrum of taking a seasoned vet or one of the 4 rookie backs that could start and make huge impacts?  And talk about depth at receiver!  Outside of the top crop of players guaranteed to vie for the 200-250 point mark in most PPR leagues, there is some amazing depth there for your WR2-4!

Then pre-season hits. You’re excited, waiting for the first big crack of pads and game action regardless if they are guys who will be cut in 4 weeks (and Hardknocks).  Football is back!  A couple key injuries here and there and then you’re wondering why Greg held the damn draft so early in the pre-season…….but you don’t care because it gives you an excuse to play GM for your team and scour stats of the waiver wire players for that undrafted diamond in the rough stud!

Man, what a time of the year…

Fast forward to the first game of the season, Chiefs @ Patriots.  Pats -9, O/U 48.5:

Rule of thumb for the past 15 years or so has been, don’t bet against the Pats at home, EVER!  Chances are, out of 8 games, you’ll be in the black, handedly, every year.  Their ATS coverage at home since 2003 is amazing (75-54-4, 58.1% covers).  The only team better than them is Seattle 73-46-4 (61.3% covers), and those figures include playoffs.  Needless to say, SHOCKER! I mean, the only thing not shocking about that game was that the Chiefs were going to cover the 9 points Vegas gave them.  They had to have been reminded by that fact all week and possibly helped create a “chip on the shoulder” mentality that they weren’t being respected coming into this game.  Let’s be honest though, we know the Pats are REALLY good at home especially when it’s a feature game, but 9 POINTS!?!?!  That’s a spread you reserve for the Pats/Jags or the Pats/Browns, not the Chiefs.  I figured they’d cover but still lose…..because, well…..it’s the Pats at home.  I couldn’t have been more wrong about the final score.

Covers.com had the game at Pats -9, O/U of 48.5. I figured that the Pats secondary would make it difficult for Smith to be relied on solely, so I planned on his usual 1 maybe 2 TD’s through the air and maybe 250 yards, effectively like a pro vet QB, managing the game well.  I expected Hunt to make a small impact in his first game, maybe 70 yards and a score.  I expected the Pats to have their run game stall because of the Chiefs stingy defensive front and I expected Tom would exploit the defense on a handful of plays to keep the Pats ahead with his numerous air attack weapons.

Not once could I have predicted Hunt tearing off 148 yards on the ground with another 98 through the air along with 3 TD’s, (dramatic pause), ALL after losing a fumble on his first ever carry! Nor did I see Smith tossing for 368 and 4 scores while completing 80% of his passes.  No one, however, could’ve seen this coming, Tom Brady completing just 44% of his throws and end up with 0 TD’s, (another dramatic pause) 0!!!!  They only averaged 3.5 yards rushing as a team, mostly thanks to Gillislee and White (side shocker no one saw coming, Gillislee having 3 rushing TD’s).

So the Chiefs defense did what I thought they’d do but the pass rush against Brady was alive last night!  Brady had a bunch of time in the pocket for most of the night despite the 3 sacks but he felt the pressure amount the longer he held the ball (which was evident on a play where no one was all that close to him and he flinched in the pocket, ducking down as if to brace for a sack and quickly stood straight back up to fire an incompletion).  The Chiefs did all of this while amassing 15 penalties for 139 yards to which the Pats got 4 first downs from and set up a few close TD’s at the Chief’s goal line.

First game, in the books, complete shocker.  Expect a big bounce back next week since that usually happens when the Pats lose bad.

Check back Sunday morning for a preview of Sunday’s games complete with spread and over/unders from Covers.com along with my predictions for each game along with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5.

Rick Lovato Trades NJ Salami for NFL Pigskin

Rick Lovato was walking into his uncle and father’s sandwich shop, Joyce’s Subs and Pizza in Linecroft, NJ when he got the call.  For the second time this year, he’s going to be long snapping in an NFL game, this time for the Philadelphia Eagles.

It is his third team this year.  Lovato was signed by the Packers in late 2015 to fill in for Brett Goode, who went down with a season ending knee injury, then spent the following off season with the Packers, who cut him right before the start of the 2016 season.

Rick then was signed by the Redskins in mid November to fill in for an injured Nick Sundberg, who tweaked his back in the weight room.  After 2 games, his services were no longer needed.

Philadelphia now seems to be in need after long-time long snapper and magician, Jon Durenbos, broke his wrist last week warming up for his next snap.  “My phone died while I was trying to look at who was contacting me,” Lovato said. “Run to my car, plug my phone in the charger and everyone was like, ‘Philly’s long snapper is down, you need to contact your agent and do all this to get ready.’ As soon as I go home to watch the game and Brent Celek’s in snapping and I’m like ‘Oh jeez, this is bad because, Dorenbos wasn’t even snapping.’”  Until Washington signed him for 10 days in November, Lovato had spent the season working at the family sub shop, working out and practicing long snapping every other day with his dad, Rick.

If you’re wondering what a short-term NFL long snapper makes, lets take a look into Rick’s earnings since coming into the league in 2015:

Bears offseason member – $4,500 signing bonus

Packers – $51,176 salary + $4,544 incentive bonus = $55,720

Redskins – $52,940

Eagles – $79,410

From 2015 to the end of the 2016 season, Rick will have made $192,570.  Not too bad considering he has only has 3 games under his belt and will only have 3 more games to play this season.

“I’m great at making breakfast sandwiches, subs,” said Lovato. “Those are my two specialties. I can make pizza, but I’m not the best at it.”

America loves stories like Rick Lovato and I damn sure hope he gets to hang on with the Eagles or another club going forward.

Lovato broke into the league in 2015 as a member of the offseason squad for the Bears.  He is a 2014 graduate of Old Dominion University and is the only player from Old Dominion to see game action in the NFL.

Flyers higher than cloud 9 after slamming home their 10th straight!

Jeremy Kohl's avatarNecessary Roughness

It’s been 31 years since the last time the Fly-Guys tasted this much winning in one spoon full.

The lead changed hands a few times but it was the Flyers will, determination and energy that brought the game back into their control and eventually their 10th straight victory, on the road against the Avalanche 4-3 Wednesday night.

The last 9 game win streak milestone before Sunday’s OT winner against the Red Wings, was during the strike shortened season of 1995.  I was just 9 years old.  As far as 10 games go, I can’t even say I was alive for that one.  It was last accomplished by our bullies in the orange and black, back in 1985.  The 1985-86 season started off with hopes of a return to the Stanley Cup, as we lost to the Oilers in the finals the previous season.  After starting the season 2-2, the Flyers rattled off 13 in…

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Flyers higher than cloud 9 after slamming home their 10th straight!

It’s been 31 years since the last time the Fly-Guys tasted this much winning in one spoon full.

The lead changed hands a few times but it was the Flyers will, determination and energy that brought the game back into their control and eventually their 10th straight victory, on the road against the Avalanche 4-3 Wednesday night.

The last 9 game win streak milestone before Sunday’s OT winner against the Red Wings, was during the strike shortened season of 1995.  I was just 9 years old.  As far as 10 games go, I can’t even say I was alive for that one.  It was last accomplished by our bullies in the orange and black, back in 1985.  The 1985-86 season started off with hopes of a return to the Stanley Cup, as we lost to the Oilers in the finals the previous season.  After starting the season 2-2, the Flyers rattled off 13 in a row (the next streak to beat now which in fact is the longest Flyers consecutive win streak in their 50 year history).

They were winning handedly with only one of the 13 wins reaching OT, and outscored opponents during that stretch, 70-36.  So far this streak has yielded 35 Flyer goals to 22 by opponents with 4 of the 10 games during the streak, reaching OT or SO.  However, the Flyers are doing something they haven’t been successful at doing for quite some time now, closing out OT and SO games with wins.

Last years OT/SO record was 14-15.  Breaking down the outcomes of those games shows that getting to OT wasn’t a worry, it was the SO.  The Flyers were able to go 11-6 in OT decisions but once it reached the SO, they posted a dismal 3-9 record.  This year has been a different story right from the opening gate for our blue collar boys.

This time last year, 12 games went to OT/SO, the record was 6-6 with a breakdown of 5-4 in OT decisions and 1-2 in SO’s.  This year, 7-3 in OT/SO breaking down to 4-1 in OT decisions and 3-2 in the SO’s.  Complete turnaround?  Absolutely and it’s not too early to say that either.  The difference seems to be the players have now adapted to Hakstol and his system, Hakstol messing with lines until they click, Giroux stepping up even more so as a captain, and Mason is hitting one of his ebb and flows where he plays out of his mind (history shows he’ll hit a wall and come back down to Earth though).  Oh, and I can’t forget the Wayne Train and Schenner.

Simmer and Schenn have been amazing pickups with tremendous upside since day one and are still very young.  Thank you Hextall!  Hextall has been a savior for this franchise with moves like these for Wayne and Brayden.  But that’s for another article, lets get back to talking about streaking……win streaks.

Winning streaks aren’t something Philly fans are used to.  The longest Phillies win streak at 16 wins, belongs to the Dapper Dan era of the 1887 Philadelphia Quakers.  The wizards of the hardwood, 76ers, took their longest wining streak over 2 seasons 1965-66/1966-67, and it was 18 games.  The Eagles soared to 8 straight in 1949. Which leads us to the Flyers streaking history.

We know that 13 is our magic number, the ’85 season, however, there are more streaks available for the taking that the Flyers are close to achieving.  Consecutive home winning streak is still a bit away (20 games set during the 1975-76 season).  If the Flyers can get a win in Dallas, and then back at home against the Predators and Capitals (tying the franchise consecutive wins record), they’ll have a chance to break the record on the road against the Devils a week from today.  If they make it to winning the 14 straight games, they’ll just need two more wins (at Blues and at Sharks) to tie the franchise consecutive road wins record at 8 with a chance to grab that record on New Years Day against the Ducks.  Getting to that point would mean that the Flyers would tie the NHL consecutive game winning streak record set at 17 by the 1992-93 Penguins.  To break that would be something Flyers fans would love to rub into their cross-state rivals faces, however, a streak of that proportion doesn’t guarantee a cup.  Plus, you would hope they keep that “one game at a time” mentality, right?

There’s plenty to be excited about for Flyers fans everywhere.  The team started as they usually do, hovering around .500 for the first few months but the spark we’ve seen out of this team lately is something magical.  Magical, not like David Copperfield magical but more like the amazing playoff run in 2007-08 where we saw RJ Umberger score 8 goals in the 5 game series against the Canadians.  Magical like the time the Flyers were down 3-0 in the Bruins series and down 3-0 in game 4, back in the 2009-10 playoff run only to come back, win game 4 and eventually the series and then take the Blackhawks to game 6 of the Cup Finals (but lost).  Magical like watching the line brawls from the 2004 regular season tilt between the Flyers and Senators (one of my favorite Flyers memories in my lifetime).

This team is rocking and rolling and playing to the likes many of us have never seen before or have seen small sample sizes of.  A ton of us weren’t around to see the Cup wins and love this team so much that we fight when they fight, celly when they celly and jump on the goalies for soft goals as their coaches would.  With a mix of young talent and veteran smarts, the Flyers have kept their momentum flowing and they don’t seem to be slowing down any time soon.  Watch out NHL, Philly is blowing the roof off the joint and we’re here to stay and make things rowdy.

Thursday Night Throwdown

This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners.  The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter.  With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back.  For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise.  Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards.  Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over.  He has games like that from time to time.  Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up.  These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.

Monday Night Mashup

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts,
8:30 p.m., TV: ESPN, LINE: Colts -7, O/U: 46:
The Colts came out flat last week against the Bills and came away with a lot of questions in the rushing game.  Not one running back ran for more than 35 yards, and Luck turned the ball over as many times as he put it in the end zone.  Tyrod Taylor turned out to be pretty good and didn’t fold under the pressure of playing Luck.  The Jets on the other hand came away with a win under Fitzpatrick, who finds himself in another organization who can’t get their act together.  It also helps that his rushing game stepped up and took some of the load.  It also helps that a fresh but unexperienced Manziel had to take over the Browns offense.  The Colts defense couldn’t stop Taylor, don’t think they’ll stop the vet Fitzpatrick plus the Jets actually have a running game to use.  The Jets will keep it close but Luck puts together a decent game at home. My Pick: Colts 27-24.