Well, Sunday was another crazy week ending in a fog filled Patriots game. Quarterbacks going down, surprise performances, 7 teams without an offensive touchdown and 3 shutouts. Tonight we get a real treat between 2 NFC East rivals. Speaking of which, to the game:
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30p (Eagles -4.5, O/U: 49)
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Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry. All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point. That’s betting pro ball for ya. The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion. regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%. Now, to the Thursday night game.
| Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)
Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even. Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going. Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards. Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs). Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back. Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same. The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not. Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense. The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3. For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order. Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17. Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row! One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!! Yeah, I said it…. |
Well, we’ve come down to the end of week 6 and yet another bounce back week for me. Tonight’s game will either cap me at 57% winners or 64% winners, either way, you should’ve made some money.
I don’t know what is going on in this league lately, maybe it’s the injuries, maybe it’s that some of these teams really did their home work in the coaching hires they’ve made and the rookies they’ve drafted but the league is super competitive this year. 18 teams hover at or around (higher/lower) the .500 mark by a game. Now, you have 6 teams 2 games or more below .500 and 6 teams that are 2 games or more above .500 but it’s rather tight with more than half of the league. Not to mention, a team like the 49ers have lost every game this year to go 0-6. That might sound really bad, but take a look at how much they’ve lost by in their last 5 games and you may think differently about them, at Seahawks by 3, at home to the Rams by 2, at Cardinals by 3, at Colts by 3, at Redskins by 2. That’s a helluva effort by Shanahan and his crew.
With that, lets go to some stats that I came across after breaking down my first 6 weeks of picks and let me tell you, there are some really odd trends. Through the first 90 games:
| ATS | O/U | ATS | O/U |
| Thursday Night | Sunday 1p | ||
| 5-1 | 3-3 | 21-28-1 | 25-25 |
| 83% | 50% | 43% | 50% |
| Sunday 4p | Sunday Night | ||
| 14-8 | 14-8 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| 61% | 61% | 33% | 33% |
| Monday Night | Primetime | ||
| 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 | 11-6-1 | 8-9-1 |
| 80% | 60% | 65% | 47% |
| Bookend Nights | Overall | ||
| 9-2-1 | 6-5-1 | 46-42-2 | 47-42-1 |
| 82% | 55% | 52% | 53% |
There are my overall stats, pretty simplistic breakdown with the added bonus of seeing each set of games throughout the week. The “Bookend Nights” are the combined record of the Thursday and Monday night games. Pretty astonishing isn’t it? I just love to see the trends when you breakdown my basic overall record to see where the strengths and weaknesses are in my picks. That being said, I had some time to look at this breakdown even further:
| Underdog Picks | Road Dog Picks | Home Dog Picks | |||
| 22-9-1 | 71% | 15-5-1 | 75% | 7-4 | 64% |
| Favorite Picks | Road Favorite Picks | Home Favorite Picks | |||
| 24-33-1 | 42% | 8-13-1 | 38% | 16-20 | 44% |
| Picks 7+ Points | Picks 6.5 – 3 Points | Picks 2.5 or Less Pts. | |||
| 10-12 | 46% | 24-23-2 | 51% | 12-7 | 63% |
As you can see here, I broke down my overall even farther, to the underdog and favorites in each pick as well as with 3 different spread categories. I apparently LOVE the underdog picks and do very well in deciding on which underdog games will pay dividends. The one jaw dropper I saw was my record with the road dogs. 75% winners on road dogs! That’s insane! Those are games not many bettors take and I’ve already bet on 21 of them, and pretty successfully. Sadly, not so much on the favorites. The one thing I’m jealous on is my one good buddies record on the games he picks to bet on with the favorites. I think it’s obvious that I need to take some notes with him.
I also gave a point spread breakdown because there are games where you sit there, look at the line and go “man, if it was 6.5 instead of 7, I’d take it” among other lines scenarios. Well, you can now look at my trends using that same thought process. How successful I’ve been in selecting which spreads I’m better at deciding who’s going to cover. I was actually shocked since the 2.5 point or less games are so hard to determine given that Vegas thinks the 2 teams at play are fairly equal, or at least that the road dog or road favorite is a bit more dominate even in the other teams house. Nevertheless, I do pretty well with games that have under a 3 point spread. But no you might want to know about the road dogs and favorites right? Look no further:
| RDog Picks 7+ Points | RDog Picks 6.5-3 Points | RDog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts | |||
| 3-1 | 75% | 8-3-1 | 73% | 4-1 | 80% |
| RFav. Picks 7+ Points | RFav Picks 6.5-3 Points | RFav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts | |||
| 0-3 | 0% | 4-6-1 | 40% | 4-4 | 50% |
| Dog Picks 7+ Points | Dog Picks 6.5-3 Points | Dog Picks 2.5 or Less Pts | |||
| 1-0 | 100% | 3-4 | 43% | 3-0 | 100% |
| Fav. Picks 7+ Points | Fav Picks 6.5-3 Points | Fav. Picks 2.5 or Less Pts | |||
| 6-8 | 43% | 9-10 | 47% | 1-2 | 33% |
As you saw, I’m a huge fan of the road dog and they help me win a good percentage of my games but I wanted to see what kinds of spreads I bet on them (RDog) with and the outcomes, as well as road favorites (Rfav.), the home dog picks (Dog), and home favorite picks (Fav.). The numbers speak for themselves, road dog record, no matter what spread you’re getting, if I’m betting a road dog, you should be as well. Same goes for the home dogs 7+ points and 2.5 points or less. So far I’m undefeated there.
So there you have it, the complete breakdown of my picks. You can see my strengths and weaknesses from the first 6 weeks of the season. I hope to give you updates on these stats at the end of every month going forward. Now, on to tonight’s Monday Night Football pick:
| Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 8:30p (Titans -7.5, O/U: 48)
So let me get this straight, the Colts who are 2-3, who have a capable quarterback, receivers and running back are 7.5 point road dogs to the Titans who are without their stud rookie receiver and will start their leader, quarterback Marcus Mariota after sitting out a week with a hamstring issue? Hamstrings are no joke and take some time to heal. Mariota, even with a good offensive line, is known to scramble and make plays with his legs. The Colts will look to keep him in the pocket and hit him low or at least wrap him up to the point where he tries to break free and possibly re-aggravate his hamstring injury. He won’t have much help around him with injuries and DeMarco Murray having a bleak couple of weeks in rushing yards. Jacoby Brissett has some of the tools that Andrew Luck has in regards to movement. They both can move well inside and outside of the pocket, it’s the decision making that’s key. Brissett has 60% completions this year and only 3 INT’s but just a measly 2 TD’s. He hasn’t looked fantastic in the red zone with his arm but has made things happen with his 3 TD runs. In the end, both defenses are in the bottom 3rd in the league, the Colts are worse but bad is bad. I don’t expect this to be a shootout but I do expect the Colts to keep it close. Take the Titans to win but the Colts to cover as road dogs in the under, 21-17. |
Lastly, I want to wish my warmest regards to Aaron Rodgers. I was devastated to hear about the broken collarbone. I’m a huge Packer fan and he is our team. I hope for a speedy recovery, we need ya 12!
Welp, (that’s what these kids are saying nowadays right?), the Vikings came oh so close to covering for me last week to push me to an even week. It would’ve been sweet to come back to you today to at least say, “still only one losing week so far this year”, but no. Mitch-a-palooza had to play half decent for a rookie getting his first start on Monday night. Kid can throw and move and throw on the move, wow! He was hitting guys in the hands near the sidelines while running away from 300 pound guys trying to catch him as a late Monday night snack. He could be the real deal for them.
Shockers of the week were road teams, Panthers, Jags, Seahawks, Ravens, who were all road dogs and won. I tell ya, I can’t figure out the 1 o’clock and the Sunday night games. That seems to be my Bermuda Triangle. Just take a look, everywhere else I’m excellent:
| ATS | O/U | ATS | O/U |
| Thursday Night | Sunday 1p | ||
| 4-1 | 2-3 | 17-25-1 | 24-19 |
| 80% | 40% | 41% | 56% |
| Sunday 4p | Sunday Night | ||
| 11-7 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| 61% | 43% | 40% | 40% |
| Monday Night | Primetime | (Thr/Sun/Mon) | |
| 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 | 10-5-1 | 7-8-1 |
| 80% | 60% | 66% | 47% |
| Bookend Nights (Thr/Mon) | Overall | ||
| 8-2-1 | 5-5-1 | 38-37-2 | 42-34-1 |
| 80% | 50% | 51% | 55% |
Listen, I don’t want to tell you to stay away from my picks but if you look at my Sunday 1pm games and/or my Sunday night games, please be skeptical at best about them. On to tonight’s game (where by the way, I’m 80% winners for the year):
| Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers, 8:25p (Panthers -3, O/U: 45.5)
This is probably the first matchup of the year on Thursday night that pits 2 hot teams against each other, with both teams being 4-1. The Panthers have seen a resurgence from Cam Newton in the last 2 weeks. 300 yard games, well over 70% completions, 6 TD’s/1 INT. I must admit, I sold on Cam early and didn’t do my research. In the last 5 seasons, of Cam’s 6 plus in the NFL, Cam has had a losing record and then followed it with a winning record. He’s gone from touchdowns in the teens to the 20’s and 30’s in the following year. There’s something about Cam that must feed off of the doubters because he’s having a career year throwing the ball and I couldn’t have been more wrong about him. I sold a bit early because I saw the super bowl slump follow him into this year’s first 3 games and couldn’t take any more. 18 games of poor quarterback play with big weapons and he only managed about a TD per game, that’s not winning you jack in fantasy. Cut to the Panther’s defense who is 3rd in the league going against the Eagles 3rd ranked offense. It’ll be a showdown to see who will prevail. Wentz, who has an astounding 3/1 TD/INT ratio, is having a breakout year and has the league buzzing. He’s big, can move, strong arm, basically everything you look for in a franchise QB, he’s got IT. The Panthers have one of the leagues worst turnover differentials at -4 (28th) while the Eagles have the leagues 10th best at +2. This should be a close one and the big selling point for me is the Eagles play on the road. They’ve gone into Washington against a good team with a top 10 defense and won, into the NFL’s best team and top 2 hardest stadiums to play in on the road (Chiefs) and lost by 7, and went to LA against the Chargers and came away with a 2 point victory. Carolina’s success recently has been on the road and when home, they were hard to watch. Yes, Cam has looked great in his last 2 starts and he may do well this week but dink and dunk passes aren’t going to win you games against the Eagles who can really push the ball down the field in chunks. I consider the Eagles to be either the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFL right now but have Carolina lingering between 8-10 only because of their play the last 2 weeks. Don’t get too high on Cam just yet (yes, I’m still a bit skeptical with no Olsen and Benjamin 3rd on the team in catches), the Eagles have been a team of consistency this year and that speaks more to the composure of a team rather than hot and cold weeks that Cam has given the last year and a half. Take the Eagles as road dogs to cover and I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win in the over, 27-24. |
This week has been another up and down week with some real shockers and major injuries to star players. We ended Sunday 6-7 against the spread on Sunday and 8-5 with the O/U. I’m ready to just say scrap my early 1 pm picks and stay with my 4 pm and primetime picks where I’m 21-11-1 (64%). We need this one to get back to .500, lets see if my primetime greatness (luck) continues…
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 8:30p (Bears +3.5, O/U: 40.5) |
Vikings are favorites on the road against a spiraling Bears team who will now turn to their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of Mike Glennon, who committed 4 turnovers last week against their in-division rival Packers. Trubisky was not a favorite of the fans once drafted but as he got to work this summer, he started turning heads. The fruits of his labor from the summer come to light tonight. He will have a two headed monster in the backfield with Howard and rookie Cohen to help get the job done. The Vikings on the other hand lost their rookie running back sensation, Dalvin Cook, to a season ending knee injury. They will now turn to Latavious Murray, who was signed this past off season to fill in and do what he was paid $15 million to be the guy, at least for 3 years. Case Keenum will be under center again with Thielen, Diggs and now Michael Floyd coming back from his suspension. These two defense have fairly similar stats but it’s how the bears defense can respond to the aerial attack that the Vikings have. The Vikings have surprised is recently without Bradford, continuing to be a force in offense so take them to beat the Bears rookie Trubisky in the over, Vikings 24-20.
Well uncle Colin has finally been defeated as his unprecedented win streak has ended at 4 weeks. He lost with his Lions, Rams, Cowboys, and Texans picks. He usually loves his dogs in games and this week proves why he shouldn’t have strayed. The Panthers, Seahawks and Packers were all road dogs that were given between a +3 to +2 but then passed on a red hot Chiefs team only giving up -1. Better pluck next well Colin.
Well, yesterday was significantly better than last week however, have you see some of the teams that won? Big road upsets like the Bills over the Falcons, Rams over Cowboys and Panthers over the Patriots. Other upsets included Texans over the Titans and Jets over Jags. A crazy day for sure which we escaped with an 8-7 record against the spread and a fantastic 10-5 record with the over/under. Once again, Uncle Colin knows best.
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 improved to 14-5 (74%) after going 3-1 in yesterday’s games with tonight being the 5th. He’s stated himself that this is the best start ever to his Blazing 5 in it’s 10 year history and might I remind you, he’s hit 70% before (2012-2013) season. He’s onto something here.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7, O/U: 49.5)
Welcome back to one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. It’s also home of the only remaining undefeated team, the Chiefs. They have THE hottest young player in the league with Hunt playing out of his mind in the first 3 weeks. Fans have to be a little worried of his usage after seeing another sensational rookie running back go down with a torn ACL injury (Dalvin Cook). Smith is seeing a career year unfold right before his eyes and I’m not sure, outside of Kansas City, who might’ve seen this coming given a top receiver in Jeremy Maclin bolting for Baltimore.
The Redskins are still looking like a formidable team to compete for a playoff spot and that will be mostly due to their defense and the (so far) consistent Kirk Cousins with his 3 back committee behind him. Chris Thompson has come away as the main weapon for Cousins as he leads the team in rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, yards and touchdowns.
This will be close early but once the 2nd half comes, the experience in coaching will come out with Andy Reid. Alex Smith has truly found where he was supposed to be his entire career and he’ll show it again tonight. Take the Chiefs to win and cover in the over, 36-24.
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5, Colin’s pick in bold:
| Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5) |
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants, 8:15p (Giants -3, O/U: 42)
The big question rolling into tonight was OBJ. Is he making his first start of the season or is he out another week? As of 7pm as I write this post, he’s expected to play. You would think that the line or the O/U would move a bit and it held steadfast. Some lines moved half a point but most stayed at -3. That’s telling me one of two things, either OBJ isn’t going to change the outcome of this game or they already figured he’d be back (since he was a game-time decision last week and practiced more during the week) and he turns the Giants from underdogs to just barely home favorites against the Lions.
There isn’t much to say about the Giants play last week that makes me feel good about them, even with OBJ in the lineup. They didn’t have a number 1 receiver and couldn’t get the running game going but Eli Manning did still complete 76% of his passes. The only thing going for them is their defense.
The lions had all they needed through the air last week but the running game hasn’t been developed yet even with multiple young backs. Abdullah and Washington will carry the team where Riddick will be used more in the slot and swing passes plays they run. The Lions won’t need a running game given the Giants front and how good they are.
These two teams met last year, it wasn’t a pretty game to watch. Both teams had barely crossed 300 total yards of offense and that’ll be the case again tonight as the lineups for these two haven’t changed much at all (yes, even with old Brandon Marshall). Take the Giants to win but the Lions to cover the spread in a close one in the under, Giants 21-20.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Seahawks -7 O/U: 45.5:
This should be a gimme for the Seahawks but don’t over think this one because Seattle is on the road. They may have been bad on the road in the past but this year in their one road game (yes they lost) but they scored a bunch of points and played against a rejuvenated Phillip Rivers. They are surprisingly mediocre in the pass defense (19th) but 2nd against the rush. They will look to bounce back against a recently shaky Kirk Cousins. Now the Redskins have racked up the yards on offense, mainly the pass game but it’s the turnovers that has contributed to their 1-3 start. The question is will Cousins keep turning it up on the Hawks passing D or will the defense force Cousins into more turnovers. With the line of an even -7 for the Seahawks on the road, that may scare bettors into going with the Skins but take the Hawks and the Over. The Redskins were embarrassed last week at home against a previously terrible Giants, bet on them playing hard tonight to redeem themselves but Seattle is too good of a team. Seahawks 28-20.
Necessary Roughness 