Oakland Raiders – Page 3 – Necessary Roughness

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry. All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point. That’s betting pro ball for ya. The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion. regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%. Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even. Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going. Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards. Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs). Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back. Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same. The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not. Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense. The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3. For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order. Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!! Yeah, I said it….

Week 5: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

The week started off great with a big win. I know Gronk was listed as out and that changed the line late but given I was finishing up the article, I didn’t hear about his injury until right at kickoff. Ok, let’s not jinx the good start so far and get to todays picks.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Bills defense has shown up to play this year. They got Matty Ice to look average again (which he is) by throwing all kinds of looks at him and rushing hard. People undersold on the Bills early on but they’ve proven they can beat the best on the road. The Bengals had a good week, doesn’t mean you should jump back on board but they looked much better. Daulton can move a little in the pocket but can he stand in there with rushers coming after him and be responsible with the ball? Take the Bills to win in the Over, 24-21.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Pickem, O/U: 40)

The Jets are another team that was sold out on early on. They were picked to go 0-16 by the great Colin Cowherd. They’re now tied with the Patriots and have a good shot to stay up near the top of the AFC. They have to get their offense going to do so though. Their defense has allowed 92 points and their offense has only scored 75. Being 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road speaks volumes, they need their fans and the comfort of playing at home to play well. McCown has completed 70% of his passes but has a 3/3 TD/INT ratio. Their run game is their strength, 7th in the league. The Browns defense isn’t the worst but it’s still down there. They’ve thrown Kizer to the wolves and the poor kid can’t even break free. 51% completions, 3 TD’s to 8 INT’s. It doesn’t look good for him. There’s not one bright spot on this team and they’re going to vey for the 1st pick in the draft again and probably squander it again. Take the Jets as a straight up winner in the under, 17-10.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Panthers went into New England and upset the defending Champs. It was a shocking win and Cam looked like his old self. It’s been almost a year and a half since we’ve seen him perform like that. The Lions have had way too many come from behind games in the 4th quarter to my liking and they’ve been exceptionally lucky in those games, coming out better than .500 in wining those games. When does the luck run out or are they that clutch when they absolutely need a score? I don’t think the Panthers can pull off another road upset especially given the off the field issues that followed came after a press conference this week that caused a lot of negative buzz. Take the Lions to cover in the win and in the under (possibly in the 4th quarter?), 20-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts -1.5, O/U: 44.5)

This matchup was initially billed as a snoozer but then Jacoby Brissett has taken over the reigns in Lucks absence and has really looked good. They’ve had a tough schedule early without Luck and played most of the teams tough but have had their fair share of turnovers that turned into points. The 49ers also have had a tough schedule to start the season, Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals and they’ve lost the last 3 games by a field goal. The 49ers defense has hung tough, even on then road. The Colts can run with the better teams if they don’t turn the ball over and have a shot at wins against the bottom 3rd of the league. This was a toughy but I am going to take the 49ers to win and in the over, 27-24.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +2.5, O/U: 43)

Mariota will be out with Matt Cassel filling in. The Dolphins who looked to have fell into a miracle with Cutler coming out of retirement and playing for Adam Gase again, winning their first game, Cutler smiling. Since, they’ve looked miserable on offense with Ajayi virtually pulling a disappearing act on the stat sheet. What did it in for me was Cutler on a noticeable run play, Cutler spread wide out to help sell the trick play just stood there, nonchalantly, uninterested in the play. I guess we’re back to the old Cutler. The Titans however still have a really good 1-2 punch in the backfield with Murray and Henry. That will be the key to the game for the Titans, run early and often, and control the clock, keeping the rock out of Ajayi’s hands. Take the Titans to win and cover in the under, 20-10.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants, 1p (Giants -1.5, O/U: 47.5)

The Chargers haven’t looked good at home and actually have shown to not really have a fan base, even seeing other teams fan bases show up more than their own. The Chargers have been in all of their games this year and that is a continuation of the last year. They are another team, like the 49ers, who have had 3 of their 4 losses end with a difference of 3 or less points. Three of their 4 games have been at home so I think the road game across country may give them a change of scenery and spark this team in an odd way. The Giants started the first 2 games of the year looking absolutely unwatchable. They had question marks in the backfield and on the offensive line but no one thought it would help generate the product that was shown. In the last few weeks however, we’ve seen a turn around, losing each of the last 2 on the road by a field goal or less. They still have those questions but have played better despite the fact. The Chargers however, have been the better team statistically and both defenses have been keeping their teams in games. I still would take the Chargers to cover the spread, being given 3, to win in the over, 31-24.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -6.5, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams have been exciting to watch, even the Cardinals who have been without their star running back David Johnson. Now, that has meant that Carson Palmer has had to throw more but with their receiving corps, it’s been fluid. The Eagles pass game improved with their offseason additions but the real surprise was the emergence of a solid run game. They lost Sproles for the season but Blount has taken hold of primary back duties with Smallwood complimenting him nicely. This will be a very fun game to watch. The Cardinals need their fans in this time of need, missing Johnson so take the Eagles to cover this one in the over, since it will be a shootout, 35-27.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1p (Steelers -7.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Jags have had a shocking start to the season, at 2-2 but a loss to the Jets in OT may have brought their larger than normal self start back down to Earth. Bortles actually has 7 TD’s to 3 INT’s but lacks in the yardage and seems to have been on a leash to start the year and control his play, especially given the talent they have in the backfield with him, Leonard Fournette. They’ve also had the best defense against the pass, given they’ve also played the Jets, Texans (before Watson started) and the hapless Ravens. The Steelers have also had a good start but given their schedule so far, who knows how good they really are. Bell has had a decent but slower than normal start given he sat out all of the pre-season. The surprise for the Steelers has been their defense, 2nd overall and 2nd against the pass. Big Ben has a 62% completion percentage with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. With this one being at home, take the Steelers to win in the under, 21-10

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -1.5, 47.5)

All of a sudden the Rams have an efficient offense. The arrival of their new young coach, Sean McVay, has given Goff a new start in year 2. The Rams have the 5th best offense overall and pass offense in the league. Their defense needs a boost but they have the talent to turn it around. The Seahawks have been the typical slow start Seahawks but have been turning it on lately with their offense. The only real defense they faced to give them trouble was the 49ers, to which they almost lost to them in mostly a field goal challenge. The Seahawks offensive line will have the microscope on it again, as they allow Wilson to constantly be under duress. The Rams typically give the Seahawks fits and especially in Seattle. I would take the Rams to cover, win and in the under, 27-20.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders, 4:05p (Raiders -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Ravens have looked absolutely horrible this season and the only reason they are 2-0 is because those wins came against similar dumpster fires earlier on in the season, the Bengals and Browns. They got trounced by the Jags in London and the Steelers just last week. Their offense is near last in the league and their defense is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Now the Raiders started hot but the last 2 games have been a struggle but against 2 solid defenses (Redskins/Broncos). They also lost their leader, Derek Carr, to a back injury for 2-6 weeks. EJ Manuel is a capable backup and can get some wins in the next few weeks but it’ll take his best, starting with a good potential confidence booster in this matchup. This should be an easy cover at home, take the Raiders to cover in the under, 20-14.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -3, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams always seem to give a show. Green Bay has been red hot despite lacking a real running game, to which they are 28th in the league. The real shocker has been their defense which has been 6th in the league. This team has basically lived and died by the arm of Rodgers who is off to a great start, averaging 286 yards/game and a rating just over 100. Dallas’s motivation for this game is to avenge the bad loss to the Rams at home last week. This team all around has been a middle of the pack team all around. They really don’t have a deep threat and opposing defenses can keep the play within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage which bodes not so good for Dak. Zeke has had successful games against Green Bay (2 games totaling 282 yards), so expect him to have a solid game. This will be an amazing game to watch with the Cowboys wanting payback for last years heartbreaking playoff loss. Green Bay needs this win as a landmark win, to help their critics R-E-L-A-X. Take the Packers to cover and win in the over on the road, 34-29.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, 8:30p (Texans +1, O/U: 45)

A lot of people are giving Houston a real shot at winning this game and it’s because of the play of Rookie, Deshaun Watson. The Texans haven’t had a great passing game but it’s been effective. Not only can he pass but he’s rushed for nearly 150 yards on 19 carries (7.79 yards per rush average). He looks to be the real deal for them which could make them more dangerous as the season goes on. Watt and Clowney will have to watch their rush, how deep into the pocket they go on Smith since Smith is a mobile quarterback. What can you say about the Chiefs that will convince you not to take them? Absolutely nothing. You’re talking about the 2nd best offense and 1st rushing offense in the league. Alex Smith has been on a tear, 8/0 TD/INT ratio along with Kareem Hunts record setting 502 yards on 68 carries (7.38 yards/carry) and 4 TD’s. Their defense hasn’t been terribly great but that can be attributed to facing strong offenses early, not to mention, the offense has been on fire! Despite the calls for an upset, I’m taking the Chiefs to get to 5-0 by covering in the over, 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Carolina @ Detroit (-3)

LA Chargers (+3.5) @ NY Giants

Seattle @ LA Rams (-2.5)

Green Bay @ Dallas (-2)

Kansas City @ Houston (+1)

Week 4: Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, we opened up with a great win. Boy did that game look ugly for the Bears. They had the game plan I talked about in the last post however, couldn’t stick to it. Not because the game strayed away from it but because they couldn’t hold onto the football early on. Lots of early turnovers and giving the ball to Aaron Rodgers instead of keeping it from hi, put them in an early hole that they never could escape. I always feel hesitation when swallowing a touchdown but I couldn’t pass there and now we have a few Sunday to choose from. There’s work to do for my comeback off of a really bad week. This week I’m going to pick just a handful of games to write about and then just give you my picks for the rest. Lets get to it.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (L), 9:30a (Dolphins +3, O/U: 50.5)

This one scares me only because teams that play in London one week, have the next week off. I wonder how much of a distraction Adrian Peterson is in the locker room, calling for some more touches. Take the Dolphins in the under, 27-21.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -8, O/U: 48.5)

Bills looked good last week at home against one of the best defenses in the league but the Falcons are monsters at home. I don’t like swallowing a touchdown or more but you need to have an amazing offense to cover, which the Falcons have. Take the Falcons to win in the Over, 38-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens +3, O/U: 42.5)

This game will surely disappoint on offense but if you’re a defense kind of game. As long as you’re a defense guy, this is a heckuva matchup. Ravens are more consistent at home, and the Steelers unravel away from Heinz Stadium. Some outlier stats is that the Steelers are 0-4-1 against the spread with the Ravens with the underdog being 4-0-1 in those same meetings. Take the Ravens in the under, 17-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 41.5)

Bengals and Browns. Probably the worst matchup of the season. Bengals FINALLY scored some touchdowns last week! I think the Bengals pull this one out in front of the dog pack. Bengals in the under, 20-14.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, 1p (Cowboys -6.5, O/U: 48.5)

This line started around -9.5 and -10 in some areas, went to -6 and now at -6.5. That tells me that Vegas, doesn’t know if they can truly trust a Rams line. Cowboys are tough at home and will more than likely win this game but it’ll be closer given that the Rams have a new coaching staff that has this offense clicking. The defense has always been solid but never had a complimentary offense. The Rams will break that unreal Cowboys offensive line here and there but Dak is too good when escaping the pocket. This is a favorite by nearly a touchdown that I just can’t pull the trigger on. Take the Rams in the under but the Cowboys to win, 24-21.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans +2.5, O/U: 43.5)

Titans even on the road will roll on the Texans. Watson may shine a bit but the Titans are sneaky good this year on both sides of the ball. Take the Titans in the over, 27-17.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

Another NFC North matchup this week. Once again, no Sam Bradford but we all have seen how capable this team is with or without him. The Vikings have some really solid weapons other than Diggs. The Lions are coming off of a heartbreaking loss due to a replay basically taking away a touchdown. The bets are swinging around 54% Lions -46% Vikings. That is too close to touch for most bettors but if your feeling lucky, listen up. Take the Lions in the over, 31-27.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -9, O/U: 49.5)

I want to give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt, that they’ll keep it close and respectable but I can’t. Again, another touchdown, plus spread that the favorite will cover given the lack of available weapons and a declining Cam Newton. Take the Patriots to win in the under, 34-13.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +3, O/U: 38.5)

The Jets defense has awoken. I know what you’re gonna say, “but Jacksonville looked so good last week in London and blew out the Ravens”. Well, again, I go back to how things used to be. There’s more London games this year and thus has resulted in you not getting the next week off if you play there. In turn, it’s basically a short week for the team with all of that travel. Take the Jets as home dogs to win it in the over, 21-20.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Another big spread for the week and again one that I think gets covered by the home team. Typically if a team plays Thursday night the week before and Sunday the next week, I like taking them with the extra few days of preparation. Those extra days aren’t going to help the 49ers who last week gave up a ton of yards and points to the Rams. Now they eventually came back with a valiant effort but ultimately, still lost. The 49ers were given a +3 spread last week at home, this week +6.5. Only a 3.5 point difference and that is basically a 3 point swing for being away now. So to me, that’s saying that the Cardinals are viewed as .5 point favorites over the Rams. I don’t buy that yet. Larry Fitzgerald will have another solid matchup this week given how bad the 49ers secondary is. Take the Cardinals in the under, 31-10.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -2.5, O/U: 47.5)

LeGarrette Blount had himself a game last week. Look for him to bust loose again with Sproles out for the season with the multitude of injuries sustained in last weeks game (knee/wrist). Smallwood will be peppered in there as a change of pace back and Wentz will be told to launch the big chunk yardage plays when he can. The Chargers are 0-3 this year and playing their home games in a soccer field. There’s even talks about if the Chargers should stay or go back to San Diego. Even with their defensive front, I think this team has already lost the edge. Take the Eagles to win in the over, 35-17.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05p (Buccaneers -3, O/U: 44.5)

Gosh, where do I begin? Winston can’t keep himself from making poor decisions with the ball through the air, even with the weapons he has. The Giants looked a bit better last week with OBJ back and healthy last week. They are still struggling with their ground game but making it work with 4 different guys. The Buccs also banged up on defense, especially their front. Take the Giants to win in the over, 26-20.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -3, O/U:46)

Rivalry game with a really good and young offense going to the house of a really good, veteran defense that have won a super bowl recently. The Broncos, while not having a household name at quarterback, have been consistently gaining yards and scoring, complementing their defense well. The Raiders defense, especially through the air, has been atrocious. Take the Broncos to win in the under, 24-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks -13, O/U: 41.5)

This line I have no clue how it blew up to 13. I mean, it even grew a .5 point since the line opened. The Seahawks offense, even at home, has been absolutely terrible. They only scored 12 points at home against the 49ers a few weeks ago. What is the logic behind this line? Brissett is a capable quarterback and proved it last week with the start and win at home over the Browns. This game is looking juicy for a Colts bet. Take the Seahawks to win but the Colts to keep it close in the under, Colts 17-10.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 on the year is an amazing 11-4 to start 2017, here’s his picks for the week:

Giants (+3) @ Buccs

Steelers @ Ravens (+3)

Rams (+8) @ Cowboys

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)

Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Week 1: Sunday Games

We made it! The first Sunday. Here is the schedule along with Covers.com spread and the over/under. Below is Cowherd’s Blazing 5.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, 1:00pm (Bills -8, O/U: 40)

Two teams looking to purposely tank this year, Jets more than the Bills. I really don’t know what to say about it other than both teams being stinkers. Bills win 24-10.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears, 1:00pm (Bears +6, O/U: 48.5)

Powerhouse offense against a softie in the NFC. No proven leader for the Bears makes this one an ugly game for them. Falcons win on the road and exact a little revenge for the 28-3 super bowl disaster. Expect a road blowout. Falcons win 38-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00pm (Bengals -3, O/U: 41.5)

This is usually a great game with great defenses clashing. I like the Bengals offense more but they have to deal with their top linebacker being suspended. Should be a close one. Bengals win 21-14.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 1:00pm (Browns +9, O/U: 46.5)

Well, another year has arrived for the Browns and another rough start is awaiting them. Some of the most dynamic players in the league are on the Steelers roster. Expect another blowout on the road. Steelers win 41-13.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions, 1:00pm (Lions +2.5, O/U: 48)

Time for Stafford to show off the most expensive arm in the league. Cardinals defense should be ready for the task. Lions win 31-28.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1:00pm (Texans -5, O/U: 39.5)

What an abysmal game. I see many turnovers coming. Houston strong brings a certain strength. Texans 24-10.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 1:00pm (Titans -3, O/U: 50.5)

Raiders going across the country to the Titans. Titans look to be a top 5 team in the league. Should be a great showdown against 2 young stars under center. Titans defense is the difference maker. Titans win 20-14.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, 1:00pm (Redskins +1, O/U: 48)

Eagles look to build on a very successful rookie season for Wentz while the Redskins deal with another average year from Cousins. Eagles win 27-21.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05pm (Rams -4.5, O/U: 41.5)

No Luck for the Colts in LA. We get to see if Goff can take advantage of that since his offense will probably have the most time on the field. Rams win 24-13.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 4:25pm (Packers -3, O/U: 51)

Always an amazing week one matchup. Seattle makes it tough against the Pack but the Pack are pretty damn good at home. Lacy doesn’t make a huge impact coming back to Lambeau with the packers front 7. Packers win 35-31

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25pm (49ers +5, O/U: 47.5)

Panthers have to fly cross country to play this one, and usually that affects teams pretty good. Expect Cam and the Panthers to play well given being on the west coast. 49ers basically have new management and have Hyde and Garcon to lead this offense with formidable Hoyer under center. Panthers win 28-24.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30pm (Cowboys -4, O/U: 47.5)

Zeke is loose, no suspension but OBJ has an ankle issue and is a game time decision. Many think he’ll sit but it’s still not certain. Cowboys win 34-21.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Eagles -1

49ers +5.5

Ravens +3

Lions +2

Packers -3

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

Week 1 – Sunday Roundtable with Colin Cowhed’s Blazing 5

Week one, Sunday regular season action is upon us. Here are my predictions and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 picks. Good luck to all!

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills +3 O/U: 45
Rex Ryan’s new era in Buffalo begins with Tyrod Taylor as his starter, unfortunately it’s against a tough Colts team lead by the miraculous Andrew Luck. Buffalo’s defense will make it tough on Luck but Taylor won’t get anything going on offense for the Bills. Pick: Colts 27-17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Bears -7 O/U: 49
No Jordy Nelson, no problem. Green Bay has had depth at receiver for years with the next best guy always stepping up. James Jones was recently signed to add security to the position for the season, back with his favorite elite quarterback in a very familiar offense. Pack don’t miss a step in Chicago but the spread is almost too great for this division rivalry. Pick: Packers 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Texans +1 O/U: 41
Adding Maclin to the receiving corps will help Alex Smith get some touchdowns to the receivers this year, but the Texans defense is back with two of the biggest defensive ends in the game with Clowney being healthy again. The Texans will be without Foster for this game so look to see the back field platooning. Defense wins the day and the Texans are a home dog so take them. Pick: Texans 17-14

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Jags +3 O/U: 40.5
An intriguing matchup with the Jags toughening defense and the lackluster, nearly weaponless Panthers offense. I am surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick’em given that Bortles started to settle in as an NFL starter late last year. He’s got a plethora of young talent at receiver and with TJ as the new addition to the back field, look for the Jags to set a winning building block this year. Cam tries to do it all in this game which will be dangerous. It’ll be close but Cam can’t get the ball to enough guys to make up for missing Benjamin. Pick: Jags 17-16

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Jets -3.5 O/U: 38.5
The Browns have been piecing together a team for years with no real direction. The defense always seemed to be the lone standout and kept them in a few games but the lack of offense proved to be its main weakness. With the Jets defense always being solid, now adding a sure star in Marshall on the outside as a main target, the Jets will try to move on from Geno slowly and find a winner at QB in Fitzpatrick who can win and keep mistakes to a minimum. No cannon but can give Marshall a big year. Pick: Jets 14-12

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Rams +4 O/U: 41.5
These two always seem to give each other fits and Seattle has never been stellar on the road. The Rams always give good teams trouble on the defensive side but with Foles as their new guy behind center, it may rejuvenate the franchise who were at the mercy of Sam Bradford and his knees. Expect bigger things from the Rams this year but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this yet and had an average year compared to his first with Chip Kelly in Philly. Pick: Seahawks 20-17

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Redskins +5 O/U: 45.5
The Dolphins anchored their man behind center with a nice new fat contract but now come the expectations. The Dolphins aren’t just going to rely on Tannehill as they added a stud at defensive tackle in Suh. Adding him will make the front defensive line that much tougher. Dolphins go from mediocre to playoff contenders this year. The Redskins have been in a tailspin again this offseason with more RGIII talk. With Cousins starting, they’re offense will have less distraction with injuries and off the field comments but Cousins isn’t their guy and the Redskins should’ve traded him when his value was very high 2 years ago. It must hurt being a home dog by more than a field goal but it’s for good reason. Pick: Fins 31-17

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Cards -2.5 O/U: 48
Jimmy Graham is no longer the main, attractive weapon in Who Dat nation. Brandin Cooks is now the young outstanding weapon opposite Colston that will keep the passing game thriving but still not as hot as it has been in years past. Brees took a bit of a hit in yardage however will still have more than 4,000 yards. The Cards have Palmer back and healthy. With the addition of Chris Johnson and some other young backs platooning in, the Cards could have a moderately successful season if most of the main offensive pieces stay healthy. This game is in doors which is both teams bread and butter. Look for it to be close like the line states but the Cards hold on. Pick: Cards 27-24

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Chargers -3.5 O/U: 46
The Chargers open up at home without their start tight end Gates in the lineup. No more Matthews in the backfield will prove to shortchange the Chargers in the redzone. However the lack off redzone threats for the Chargers, the Lions are without Suh on their defensive front. That will considerably change the dynamic of their pass rush. Nonetheless, both teams still have the ability to air it out. Pick: Chargers 24-21

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Broncos -5 O/U: 47
With new offensive minds for the Broncos and an aging legend who still deals with numbness in his throwing hand, look for the Broncos to tone it down a bit in the air game, especially without Julius Thomas now with the Jags. The running game isn’t a sure bet to take over the offense but the days of 45-50 TD’s in the passing game are over for Manning. The Ravens on the other hand found a gem last year in Forsett. Coupled with the strong armed Flacco and Steve Smith threat, the Ravens are poised to have a good year. Pick: Broncos 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Raiders +3 O/U: 43
The Raiders all around looked pretty good this off season. Defensively sound and Carr is developing nicely for them. The Bengals are going to put up their typical average season, good start, horrible finish. Teams are now on to Andy Daulton and once under substantial pressure, he will turn the ball over. Look for the Bengals to go to the run game more this year than in the past to limit picks. Pick: Raiders 21-17

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Buccs -3 O/U: 41
The rookie quarterback matchup, Winston and Mariota is what we’ve all been waiting to see. Who made out better. This will show which quarterback was better prepared for their inaugural season. That being said, Winston was drafted into a much better offensive situation than Mariota. With Evans and Jackson on the outside Jenkins at tight end, and Martin/Sims combo in the backfield, the Buccs are going to be riding high this year if Winston can settle into the offense at full pace. Mariota has a little more work to do with the lack of weapons compared to Winston but he is a great game manager and doesn’t make errors often. Pick: Buccs 27-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC. LINE: Cowboys -7 O/U: 52.5
Another early divisional matchup pits the revamped Giants offense with Cruz back, the Giants are poised to have a pretty successful air attack again this year. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher in Murray, jetting to another divisional rival, the Eagles, but landed Run DMC formerly of the Raiders. He hasn’t been all that cracked up to be since he was drafted but a new place, new team, new O-line might bring some spark out of him. Still, Romo, Dez and Witten are a tough combo in itself to handle. Pick: Cowboys 30-27

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:
Jaguars (+3) 23-20
Ravens (+5) 27-26
Packers (-7) 34-20
Rams (+4.5) 27-26
Giants (+6) 28-26

Week 7: Sunday Picks and Colin Cowherd with the Sharps

EDIT NOTE: I updated the point spread since Covers.com was down late last night and early this morning. My Picks will stay the same.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Ravens -7. O/U: 49.5:
Hey Falcons, nice game last week. They rarely lose at home and I mentioned their record last week and they crumbled on me. Atlanta is just morbid on the road, last week shocked me and with a line this big, I can’t see them losing by 7, i can see them losing by 10 or more. They lost by 10 or more the last 3 outside away games, winless on the road and just can’t move the ball effectively. It was an embarrassing loss at home and I don’t see the team recovering. The run game is bad which forces Ryan to throw more which has made him less consistent, just over 50% completions last week. The defense isn’t stopping anyone either. Bail bail bail. The Ravens on the other hand have a half decent offense and can actually run without Ray Rice, which no one saw working this well. Last week they jumped out to a 38-0 lead at the half and lead 28-0 after the first quarter. Flacco was on point early with 4 of his 5 TD passes coming in the first quarter, going 21/29 72% 306 yards 10.6 yards per pass attempt 14.6 per completion and 5 TD’s and 0 picks. That is a heck of a day for any quarterback and most of the rest of the game, the Ravens ran the ball and still racked up 169 yards on 35 carries, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and a score. Ravens are hot, the spread is not, I hate the favorite giving 6.5 to 7 points. However, you can’t deny how bad the Falcons are on the road in an open stadium and the Ravens are hot. Take the Ravens to win with the points but in the Under. Ravens 31-17

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Redskins -6. O/U: 46:
Jake Locker is still questionable to play, Whitehurst can do everything Locker does except he may not get hurt so easily. Both have roughly the same completion percentage and yardage. I don’t consider neither of them to be competent long term starters but can get the job done from time to time. The issue for the Titans is that their 2 quarterbacks are helping the team average 228 yards a game while the rushing game is a brighter spot but still only averaging 67 yards between the rookie Sankey and veteran Greene but averaging as a team about 116 per game. Don’t expect too much with either QB in, as the Redskins defense have been terrorizing opposing QB’s. The defense for the Skins has held up through the awful 1-5 start but have stayed in some games but it’s tough to do when the defense spends more time on the field than your offense just about every game because the offense turns the ball over a ton. The turnover differential is probably the root as to what has help this team spiral out of control. They have given the ball up 13 times and have only taken it away 4 times. The defense plays well early in games and can reach the QB early but when they are on the field more than the offense and are behind in games, the defense fails and gets tired. They still however are the 5th best offense in terms of yards but Cousins needs to not turn the ball over so much to take leads and keep them. It’s a battle of 2 bad teams and you can’t trust neither of them even with home field advantage. I will however go with the better defense and more explosive offense. Take the Redskins to win with the points, but it will score in the Under. Redskins 24-14.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, LINE: Seahawks -7 O/U: 43.5:
This game is a very interesting one. Austin Davis has looked really good filling in for the injured Sam Bradford and the Seahawks just got beat at their house by America’s Team. The Rams are winless at home but not for lack of effort or blowouts but stared some really good teams dead in the eyes and went toe to toe all four quarters with them. They went back to back weeks in the NFC East with the Cowboys and Eagles and lost by 3 after leading at the half to the ‘Boys and damn near came back on the Eagles posting 14 points in the 4th and holding the Eagles to 0 in the same quarter. Last week it was the 49ers in which they had a 14-10 lead at the half. Their issue is just maintaining consistency through all four quarters. Confidence has to be there. They have the 7th best passing game in the league and the defense being pieced together through injuries has stood up well enough to keep the team in it each game. The Seahawks were caught napping last week and don’t let that final 30-23 score fool you, it was a dominating game for the Cowboys. Without the blocked punt returned for a TD, you’re talking 30-16 with just one lonely offensive touchdown either way. The Hawks were severely beat in TOP by about 15 minutes and only converted 5/13 (39%) 3rd downs and could only turn out 9 first downs and only 209 total yards. This can’t continue and an embarrassment like that is what motivates a team, especially with a defense like the Hawks. The Seahawks have only one way to go, up and they will get a fight trying to get back on track. Again, I hate to give team a TD to start the game especially at home, so you have to think about how worthy your pick in this game would be and maybe look into the record of the Hawks the last couple of years giving up 6.5-7 points. I still think the Hawks will win but Seattle is a different team, mostly on offense, on the road so they win but the Rams cover the spread +7 and this game will score in the Over. Seahawks 24-21.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, . LINE: Browns -4 O/U: 44.5:
Blake Bortles showed some growth, control and consistency last week all while only throwing 1 pick compared to his 2 average per game. He almost pulled out their first win of the year, albeit a bad team, but looked much better. I’m still torn on wether or not he or Chad Henne gives the team a better chance to win each week given the lack of experience from Bortles and how similarly their stats look. Chad usually throws as many picks as TD’s but is 3-1 TD-INT’s this year and had a banged up receiving core this year. The browns are scrappy. Hoyer’s won’t pop out at you as amazing but he gets the job done. Last week he completed about half of his passes but had 200+ yards on 8 completions for over 25+ yards per completion! which is awesome. The Browns keep games close on limiting mistakes. They’ve turned the ball over 5 times but have only caused 2 on their defense. They complete less than 40% of their 3rd downs but do remember that they played some good defenses, The Steelers twice, the Ravens and Titans before their free fall. The Jags are no pushovers themselves and will put up a fight. Cleveland isn’t a team I ever imagined getting a line like this and it’s tough to take them. Take the Browns to win but the Jags on the points and this game will score in the Under. Browns 17-14.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts –3 O/U: 50.5:
Last week I made the mistake with sticking with my guns on the Bengals covering almost a TD against Cam’s Panthers even though AJ Green was kept out of the game. I will not make that same mistake this week. When you think of Marvin Lewis, you think a great defensive team. The past 2 weeks they’ve allowed 80 points and 936 yards! The team committed 13 penalties for 113 yards, Daulton threw 2 picks. They did stay in the game without their star WR, Daulton still played a good game (33/43 77% 323 yards and 2 TD’s) utilizing Sanu on the outside for 10 grabs, 120 yards and a TD, and had some help on the ground with Bernard carrying the rock 18 times for 137 yards (7.6 avg) and a score. Their offense needs to stay rocking and moving the ball (10/16 63% on 3rd down) because Andrew Luck and the leagues best offense is up next. Luck has played some tough defenses this year, and the Bengals can be one more. Luck has been one of the best passers in the league and proved it last week going 25/44 (57%) for 370 yards 3 TD’s and 1 pick. They kept drives alive being 8/16 on 3rd down and getting 27 first downs (which is huge) while sucking up 14 more possession minutes than the Texans. 456 total yards is nothing to laugh at either as the Bengals have given up more yards on defense than their offense have been able to produce. Indy being a 3 point favorite is Vegas’s way of saying they feel that the two teams are evenly matched and Vegas usually gives any home team that -3. So basically they’re saying on a neutral field, it’s a pick’em game. I don’t think so and am surprised the line went down to -3 Colts. Take the Colts and that high powered offense to win with the points -3 and have the game score in the Over. Food for thought, AJ Green will more than likely miss his 2nd straight week. Colts 31-24. Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Colts (-3)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bills -7. O/U: 43.5:
Teddy Bridgewater showed his rookie colors last week and it was rare to see a team like the Lions who generally don’t win road games outside of a dome. The Lions sacked him 8 times in his second start which helped them to just only 3/14 converted 3rd downs and all the while causing him to throw 3 picks! The line will have a similar game against the Bills defensive front but not like they did last week, Teddy will be scrambling a bit and his game will struggle. The Bills have found consistent QB play in Orton who was 24/38 (63%) for 299 yards, 2 TD’s and a pick. The score was what it was but if they have this offense week to week, they will win some games and against some decent teams. Take the Bills to win with the points and to score in the Under. Bills 24-17

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bears -3 O/U: 47.5:
This is an interesting lime for this game. Especially since the Bears went to Atlanta which has an awesome home record with Ryan at the helm and whipped them up 27-13. Yes the defense came out a little banged up but Cutler looked good, may have gained some confidence back in his ability to win big matchup games and will utilize his weapons more since he now has a strong and very healthy receiving corps. The Dolphins are back without Moreno for the rest of the year. Miller is a viable option for the running game, he has been for a few years but the NFL now-a-days, makes you use more backs in different situations. Tannehill wasn’t bad but wasn’t great. Yeah he dueled with Rodgers but in the end, he threw 2 picks and Rodgera didn’t. Turnovers win and lose you games, make them and you are staring down the barrel at a loss, cause them and you could be dominating someone all game for it. The Dolphins aren’t ready to play multiple decent games in a row plus it will be cold and windy. Tannehill isn’t the franchise guy the Dolphins hoped he would be. Take the Bears to win with the points in the Under, because both QBs will make mistakes and flip flop field advantages. Bears 27-17
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Dolphins (+3)

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions –1.5. O/U: 45.5
The Lions may be without Megatron for a bit but the defensive pressure is unreal, leading the league in sacks with 20. Brees and the Saints are a different team on the road and even in road domes. Don’t expect too much out of this offense with the Lions D in their faces. Take the Lions to win at home with the points and to score in the Under. Lions 24-20

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -6.5 O/U: 48.5
The Panthers are coming off a pretty good morale victory, going to Cincinnati and coming out with a 37-37 tie. The Panthers mustered 29 first downs, 2/2 on 4th down, 431 total yards and ran the ball for 147 yards on 34 carries averaging 4.3 yards per carry (mostly Cam running the ball). The defense caused Andy Daulton to throw 2 picks as well. The reason that the Panthers needed to go for it and make it on 2 4th downs was because they only converted on 8/17 3rd downs and had 8 penalties for 6o yards. They will need to go to Green Bay and will have to convert more 3rd downs and get 431 yards in regulation without the help of overtime. The issue is having Cam taking more carries, how will he hold up and be a consistent passer if he has to carry the ball 17 times? The Packers on the other hand, escaped the grip of the Miami heat and Dolphins defense. They barely won even after causing 3 turnovers. They say that heat in Miami changes good teams that aren’t used to playing in it, I thought it was a joke, it’s the real deal. The Packers showed up, kept the ball moving with 27 first downs, and still managed to be down until the very end of the game. The rushing game which blew up the stat sheet last week was pedestrian at best and Rodgers completion percentage was low but still managed 3 TD’s. The key question for Green Bay is how will their defense do against Cam? They faced 2 two-way quarterbacks the first 2 weeks and lost against one with weapons and won against one without. Bettors are very afraid of favorites giving 6.5 or more and rightfully so. 11-11 are favored teams giving 6.5 or more. In this one, take the Packers to win with the points and expect the score to go in the Over. Packers 34-24.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -3. O/U: 46
They say this is a trap bet due to Andy Reid and his record against the spread after a bye week. But the Chargers are a different team this year and are still undervalued. Take the Chargers to win with the points and to score in the Over, it may be a dog fight in Sam Diego today. Chargers 28-21. Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Chiefs (+4)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Raiders +3.5. O/U: 46.
Take the Cards in this one to win with the points and to score in the Over since Derrick Carr found his groove last week. Cardinals 28-24

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -5. O/U: 47
The Cowboys defense is better, causing turnovers, putting pressure on the QB. Romo found his groove and is healthy and is throwing darts. Giants lost Cruz and won’t be able to keep up as it was shown last week, getting shut out by the Eagles who don’t have a great D. Take the Cowboys to win with the points and in the Over. Cowboys 31-24
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Giants (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Broncos -6.5. O/U: 47.5
The Broncos usually have a line like this attached to their games but it shocks me that the road warriors like the 49ers drew this lime as well. Peyton might have a good game but he may throw it over 40 times to carry the team since San Fran will be stopping the run game. I say take the Broncos to win but the 49ers to cover in the Over. Broncos 31-28
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: 49ers (+6.5)

Week 6: Sunday NFL Games

It’s been a theme this year, a tale of 2 halves of football. Last week, half of my picks were covering the spread in the first half. Some started off slow but won with their second half play and some gave up that halftime lead by the end of the game. I had to just give my predictions without analysis with the last bunch of games because I was running out of time before kickoff. I will do better going forward for you but I just had my first week at my new job and I’m trying to acclimate to my new hours for writing this blog but here’s a cookie, I threw in Colin Cowherd’s picks at the end. Here’s my week 6 picks:

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 54.5:
Devin Hester gets a visit from his former team this week and he hasn’t been silent about the way he feels he was treated his last few years with the Bears. Hester felt that he needed to be implemented more in the Bears offense. This year with the Falcons, he’s been in the game plan but also has to share touches with Roddy White and Julio Jones. He’s had breakout games against the Saints and Vikings and in numerous ways against the Buccs. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday but I’d put my money on him playing, and not missing any game against the Bears. His team however is slumping. Atlanta has lost their last 2 games, both on the road and are 2-3 overall (all losses from road games). Matty Ice has ice running through his veins for home games. They are so good at home, it’s hard to look past So they’re due for a win right? The Bears are also 2-3 but have had their 2 wins come on the road with their first road loss coming at the hands of the Panthers last week. They too are on a 2 game skid and questions are swirling around weather Cutler is the guy to take them where they want to go. Last week Cutler showed more inconsistent playmaking decisions with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble on a fine passing day, completing 78% of his throws for 289 yards and 2 TD’s. The theme of the year for most middle of the pack teams has been that they can play 1 half of great football and have the lead after the half or comeback and win but haven’t been able to put a whole game together. These 2 teams have that issue. This is really the matchup of 2 quarterbacks. One is viewed as elite (Ryan) and the other has his fan base crumbling belief in him that he can bring home a deep playoff run (Cutler). Look for the Falcons to start off quick, since Ryan plays his best football in the first quarter (78% completion percentage lifetime) and Cutler doesn’t really get going until the 3rd quarter, where he has his best completion percentage lifetime (63%). You also can’t ignore Matty’s home record of 40-10 in his career, including this years home games and 20-5 following a loss. It will be a tough one for the Falcons but the Bears are reeling as well and have to try and recover from the current 2 game skid on the road in a tough venue, the Georgia Dome. I would take the Falcons however, to win with the points and in the Over. Falcons 31-24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans -4.5. O/U: 42.5:
The line history on this game tells you a lot about how unsure Vegas is with this game. They want to say that they think the Jags will get their first win against another terrible team but Bortles has thrown 2 picks each game he’s played. For it to swing from -7 to -4 to -4.5 back to -4 for the Titans, while not adjusting due to a star player being injured, just shows that they may be making this bet look too wild for many to bet on. That is probably because they want to favor the home team (Titans) but think the Jags can pull off a win especially covering the spread if it’s reasonable. That being said, neither team has played well, but Bortles seems to be coming around slowly (minus the 2 picks he seems to throw every game). He was able to hook up with 9 different receivers which shows that he is still trying to find someone to groove with and mesh with as his go to guy. The defense however, has picked it up. They only allowed the Steelers to score 17 points, recorded 4 sacks, held them on 8/16 3rd downs, and the tandem of Poslusny/Cyprien accounted for 23 tackles and a sack, 34% of the teams 67 tackles. Their main issue is the non existent run game. The Titans, outside of their week oem win, has been horrible. Last week they seemed to pick it up offensively but Locker left the game and didn’t return in the 2nd quarter. The Titans scored all of their 28 points in the first half and lead by 25 at one point, probably the best half they’ve played all year. But them game isn’t won by the half and the Browns made the necessary adjustments to come from behind and win it. Look, the Titans probably will have Whitehurst in and half allowed on average, 32 points per game. That’s a ton of points and I think the Jags can pull out at least 14 and hold the Titans with their beastly defense. Take the Jags to win with the points and take the Under. Jags 21-20.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 43.5:
Well the Buccs seem to have turned the ship in the right direction with the QB change. Not many people thought they’d keep it close in the Superdome against the Saints, me included. They kept a bunch of drives going with their 20 first downs while they caused 3 Saints turnovers, all Drew Bree’s INT’s. Some quick fixes are needed for them to win games like converting on 3rd down (just 3/9 or 33% last week), 15 penalties for 113 yards, which is an unreal figure and probably took away their win right there and having 10:30 minutes time of possession LESS than the Saints. Fixing that and Vincent Jackson having another amazing game like last week (4 rec – 144 yards) will keep them in close games like this last week. The Ravens did a lot of things that can win you football games last week like causing 4 turnovers, averaging 6 yards per carry, and having a punter do work averaging 48.4 yards per punt on 5 punts. But they really shot themselves in the foot by their own turnovers (2 fumbles lost and a pick), allowing Indy to keep the ball for a crazy 38:43, and only completing 1/3 4th down attempts because they could only muster up completing 1/11 3rd down attempts. That’s just pitiful! Flacco has to play better (22/38, 58%, 235 yards, 0 TD’s/1 INT), and they need to run it more to control the clock better. They had 2 running backs with just 10 carries but rattled off 72 yards and a score (Forsett 6-42 & TD, Pierce 4-30). The line has to be better though for Flacco, giving up 4 sacks for a total of 38 yards doesn’t help either. They are 3-2 and need to turn it around which they do against the Buccs but it will be a tougher game than some will imagine. Take the Ravens to win and cover the spread but barely and in the Under. Ravens 21-17.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10 O/U: 47.5:
Geno’s time in New York is on a rocky patch but when Vick came in (which the fans were calling for), they were probably wishing Geno was back in. Not good for Rex Ryan if he can’t find a QB to win games. Geno probably shouldn’t have been started all of last year but Sanchez was injured and on the rocks with his play as well at the time but you want a guy in there that gives you the best chance to win. Mistakes and inconsistency will result in another benching, can he stand up the pressure that is the Broncos and keep up with the scoring? I tell you what, 11 first downs and being 1/12 on 3rd downs aren’t going to cut it, ever! Would you put your money on that? Maybe their defense but they won’t withstand 60 minutes of Peyton. Denver’s defense even made an appearance last week, holding the Cardinals to just 9 first downs, 3/16 on 3rd downs and only allowed 215 total yards! The offense was pretty amazing as usual, holding the ball for over 35 minutes, 568 total yards, and 24 first downs. Peyton alone threw for 31/47 (66%) 479 4 TD’s but also 2 picks, but anytime Peyton has a game like this, expect the scoring to be plentiful and the blowout to be on. They didn’t need to run much but when they did, they averaged 3.3 per run with 3 different carriers averaging 4 yards or more. D-Thomas had a blazing game as well, 8 catches for 226 (28.2) and 2 scores, with his compliment Emmanuel Sanders catching 7 for 101 (14.4) and Julius Thomas hauling in 6 for 66 (11.0) and the other 2 scores, just an outstanding receiving core that are on fire and give Peyton so many options to choose from and by the way, you didn’t see Welker on there who caught 7 for 58 yards. 3 receivers over 6 catches and 50 yards each! Wrapping your mind around that is hard because it’s unheard of. The line on this game opened in some places at 5 or 6 went to as high as 10.5 to 10 to 9.5 back to 10. Those swings just tell you to stay away from games that throw a game around like that. The Sharps don’t know what to make of the Jets since they were shutout last week 31-0 and the offense just laid down. However, this is the 3rd best pass offense in the league going against the worst pass defense in the league. Take the Broncos to win, to cover and to score at least 35 to help this one score in the Over. It will be a blow out. Broncos 38-20.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings –2.5. O/U: 43:
This is a tough one because Teddy Bridgewater is back and this will be a first look for the Lions at him. The last time the Vikes were at home with Teddy at the helm, it was an upset over the Falcons. The running game for the Vikes can do damage but they are going against one of the better run games in the league (3rd) and a pretty decent pass defense (6th). The Lions seem to be very different on the road but against the Vikings in 8 career games, Stafford has one of his better TD/INT ratios and completes about 64% of his passes against them. The big question is how will he do without Calvin Johnson in the lineup. He was listed as doubtful with his week 5 ankle injury and is expected to miss this game. That opens the door for opportunity for Teddy. I think he puts a double threat on the Lions that they haven’t really faced this year and being fresh from sitting out last week will help. They will pound the ball on the ground but not as effective as previous games and will make it a game. Having just a 2.5 point line helps me make up my mind on this one. If you got the line earlier in the week, the Lions were giving up about 1.5 points but with Johnson most likely sitting, that line flip flops so I hope you locked it in when the Vikes were 1.5 point dogs. I still think they win at home and cover the -2.5 point spread but in the Under. Vikings 20-17.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Patriots -2.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Pats line is still recovering from injuries and they are wondering who will be snapping Brady the ball. The hardest thing to do is handle the ball in between players especially snapping the ball with QB and new center. I’m sure there was extra practice all week on it but I’m going to say that the over/under on snapping blunders will be over 1. The Bills have re-found their confidence under the helm of Kyle Orton. He’s been able to give the Bills a consistent passing game like they haven’t seen with EJ Manuel. Orton has a 69.8 completion percentage and going against the 3rd best pass defense in the league, it will be tough but if anything, count him in for being consistent. He’s looked for a starting opportunity which is what brought him out of retirement and he’s got his chance and will continue to make the most of it this week against bitter rivals (bitter due to being 2-10 last 12 home games against the Pats). Sammy Watkins looked good last week with 7 catches for 84 yards. He will score a TD this week against the Pats, the Bills will be keeping this one close because they really want to beat Tom Brady. The Bills are 2nd best in the league against the run; the Pats are 14th in the run offense. Tom will get hit and pressured. Take the Bills to cover the points and to win given that this is probably their best opportunity to pull off a win against the Pats in the last decade. This game will score in the Over. Bills 24-21.

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bengals -7. O/U: 43.5:
The Bengals have covered 11 straight home games ATS by an average of 12 points! AJ Green was a last minute scratch but I’ll stick to my guns since the line hasn’t moved. Take the Bengals to win but giving up a TD to Cam is too much so take the Panthers to cover in the Over. Bengals 27-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Browns -1. O/U: 47:
Close game as far as points but the Browns want revenge from the week 1 thrilling loss. Take the Browns to win at home with the -1 point and to score in the Under. Browns 24-21.

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2.5. O/U: 49:
Experts are saying the heat in Miami may make a difference in this one and if your betting on the heat helping the Dolphins and not betting on the Dolphins to try and win, then you need to rethink your betting strategies. Packers take this one easily over a weak Fins team and big. Take the Pack -2.5, it may even move to 2 before kickoff and to score in the Under. Packer 28-20.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -7. O/U: 43.5:
Chargers will be too strong, I don’t like taking TD spreads but the Raiders are baaaad. Chargers 31-17.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks -8.5. O/U: 47:
Cowboys are not getting any credit in this one with an +8.5 underdog spread! That’s nuts. Romo is back, the line is doing a great job and they will keep it close in the always tough Seattle. I was close to calling an upset alert but you can’t go against the 12th man. Take the Seahawks to win but the ‘Boys to cover the +8.5 point spread in the Over. Seahawks 31-24.

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -5 O/U: 45.5:
The Redskins will bounce back this week. They actually kept the game with Seattle last week within range. the Cardinals got beat up a bit by the Broncos last week and the Redskins D will keep pressure on Stanton. Take the Redskins to win with the points as well +5, and in the Under. Redskins 24-20.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Eagles -2.5. O/U: 50.5:
Eagles offense isn’t what it was last year. They are getting outscored and seem to only really play 1 half of football. The Giants have gotten much better since their first 2 weeks. This will be a good one. Still, 4-1 is 4-1, the Eagles seem to find a way to win and at home in prime time, take the Eagles to win and cover the -2.5 spread and to score in the Over. Eagles 30-27.

Colin Cowherd made his picks Friday and doesn’t like one of them and these are his lines:

Bears +3, Bengals -6.5, Giants +3, Dolphins +3.5, Chargers -7 (he doesn’t like the Chargers game). The Sharps disagreed with the Bengals and Chargers picks.

Good betting everyone.

Week 3: Sunday Games Preview, Game and Spread Predictions

Last week I turned it up on the spread! Talk about a turn around. Listen, the first week is always hard to predict winners of the spreads because you haven’t seen the teams go live for 4 whole quarters. I was a numbing 7-9 in week one but 9-7 on the over/under calls. With the over/unders, you generally have an idea of the offenses or the weekly matchups that have potential to score in the over, same for the defenses in the under. Here’s the funny thing. I made a bet against my GB -8 pick and hit. At the last second I decided that -8 was too high and that Geno was going to keep it close, so I took the Jets and they nearly won the thing if it hadn’t been for the fake or not so fake timeout call. So for this blogs record sake, it was a 10-6, 63% winners week, but in my head, I really went 11-5, 69% winners.

This week, I’m off to a hot start. Atlanta crushed Tampa Bay and scored in the over by themselves, real Peyton Manning/Denver Broncos like. Atlanta was just relentless on both sides of the ball and like I said, the Buccs would have to get first downs and sustain long drives to keep it close. They just go out and do what they’ve been doing, turning the ball over (even after causing a turnover) and not getting those crucial first downs. Their first, first down was near the end of the first half! Pitiful! To boot, McCown gets hurt, then Mike Glennon comes in and shows him up a bit. The Buccs paid McCown a ton of cash and gave him the starting job immediately after signing. This is also the same coach who kept Rex Grossman at the helm of his offense, which wasn’t great, during their Super Bowl year. Well the only thing I got wrong was the final score really, I thought the Buccs would wake up for a divisional game and score more than they did.

Anyways, on to Week 3’s Sunday picks and predictions:

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills -2.5. O/U: 45.5:
Both the Bills and Chargers had big wins at home last week. The Chargers beat up on the visiting Seahawks who, like I said, are not the same team on the road and could have trouble scoring more than 2 TD’s. Well they did score 3 of them but their usually stout defense allowed 30! Rivers to Gates seemed to be the “it thing” of the night, they hooked up through the air 3 times for 6. By the way, what is it with the West Coast and their TE’s? 2 have already had 3 TD games, (Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates). Give Buffalo credit, they made the most of their field position most of the game. They started at their own 40 or better 6 times (resulted in 4 FG’s/missed FG/Punt), at or above their own 30 or better 8 times (5 FG’s/missed FG/2 Punts) and in Miami territory 5 times (3 FG’s/missed FG/Punt)! They were able to move the ball well but not good enough for TD’s (4 drives of 40 yards or more). The Bills defense was just as good, only allowing 3 drives for Miami’s offense to go 60 yards or more resulting in allowing 10 points and getting a INT (2nd/3rd/4th best Miami drives were 29/28/14 yards). The Chargers allowed 3 scoring drives and shut the Seahawks down on the other 7 drives. What the Chargers do well is sucking up time on offense. They had 3 drives over 5 minutes totaling 19:33 (over a whole quarter on 3 drives)! The total time of possession shook out like this: SEA 17:45, SD 42:15, what ball hogs! The Chargers also turned 6 of 10 drives into points, which they also had a 1 play drive that was just a knee to end the first half (so really, 6 of 9). That’s a heck of a game for the Chargers. They’ll do much of the same to the Bills, keeping their offense on the field, tiring out that Bills D. Take the Chargers to win with the points +2.5 and in the Over. Chargers 28-21.

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -2.5. O/U: 44:
This shouldn’t take long. The Rams are a mess and even with legendary coach Jeff Fisher. Listen, Jeff Fisher can’t get on the field and throw the ball for them and play the game for the team the way he expects them to perform. You may be saying, why are you dogging them, they are 1-1. They beat the Buccs last week. Did you see the Buccs Thursday? They are channeling their inner 1980’s self. Without a viable QB, the Rams have no leadership on the field. Austin Davis looked strong in last weeks game going 22-29 for 235 yards. The key for him was not INT’s! The ‘Boys looked to get back on track last week and their defense looked good for a second straight week. The offense held on to the ball more than 2/3’s of the game. Romo didn’t pass a whole lot but kept his game efficient. The run game really looked good racking up 220 yards on 40 touches with Murray leading the way with 167 yards on 29 carries. Look for a route in this one. The ‘Boys will win with the points -2.5 and in the Over. Cowboys 31-14.

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Eagles -6. O/U: 51:
Welcome back to Philly Desean! Well may not be so welcome since he is now with division rival Washington. Yeah, RGIII is hurt but Kirk Cousins is a viable backup and has proven his worth which is why the Redskins haven’t really shopped him in trades. Cousins looked great at time while filling in the last 2 years but also looked like a backup during other times. Last week he was able to complete 67% of his passes, 250 yards and 2 TD’s. Desean will definitely get the Redskins pumped in his return (even though he is still questionable) so look for the Redskins to start quick since the Eagles don’t show up until the 2nd half. This will be a tougher game than normal for the Eagles and not due to the D-Jack hype but because the Redskins have one of the best pass rushing defenses in the league! After all, they did sack Chad Henne 10 times (combination of bad line play and Henne holding the ball too long). Lately Foles has been holding the ball longer than he should and making some bad decisions on where to throw the ball (2 picks already in 2 games, 2 picks all of last year in 13 games). Philly has had a better offensive line in recent years so this will be a nice test for them and played very well last week. Eyes will be on Sproles out of the backfield with his amazing game last week but it won’t be that type of game for him this week. I like the Eagles winning this game but take the Redskins for the points +6 and to score in the Over. Eagles 31-27.

Houston Texans vs. New York Giants,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Texans -1. O/U: 41.5:
Eli Manning’s woes continue and Tom Coughlin is turning 50 shades of red I haven’t seen before. The Giants offense have scored a 28 points (28th in the NFL) and 269 offensive yards (30th). That’s just pitiful! Especially for a team that has won 2 Super Bowls since 2007 (2011 the other). Just 3 years removed from a Super Bowl and this is the product they put out? Anyways, they did do some good things last week, time of possession was 5 minutes higher than the Cardinals, a good amount of first downs (24), more yards and 2-3 in the red zone. Where they failed was turnovers (4), 9 penalties for 70 yards, and only averaging 3 yards per carry. The Texans are going to give them a tough go but a win can be achieved. Houston won against a Oakland Raiders team that is sinking already this season. They took advantage of the non existent running game and pressured rookie QB Carr into throwing 2 picks. Fitzpatrick was accurate, completing 14/19 (74%) passes for just 139 yards and 2 TD’s and Arian Foster showed flashes of old rushing 28 times for 138 yards for almost 5 yards per carry and a score. Most of Fosters’ carries were between the tackles however, and is now questionable for this week 3 game. So with Foster Q’d for Sunday and Fitzpatrick not able to drive the ball down the field to support the possible lack of rushing game, expect the Giants to get their first win this year. Take the Giants to win with the points +1 and in the Under, since the Texans will have a hard time scoring if Foster is limited or missing Sunday. Giants 21-17.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -10. O/U: 49.5:
It’s amazing that the Sharpes only value a guy like Adrian Peterson at a value of 1-1.5 points per game. The guy averages just over 12 TD’s per season rushing, 13 if you add in his receiving stats. That’s 91 TD’s in 104 games, how does he only account for just 1 to 1.5 points? Anyways, he’s out, probably for a while so in comes back up Matt Asiata, who in AP’s absence last week rushed 13 times for just 36 yards (2.8 yards per carry) but caught 5 passes for 48 yards (9.6 yards per catch) and a score. It will be interesting to see how the holes in the Saints defense (which allowed a Browns team to score 26 points on them) are corrected for the Vikings. Yes the Saints are 0-2 but they were both lost by a field goal or less. They have done all the right things on offense, it’s just that the defense needs to start to step up and stop teams (last in the league in passing yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed). Just because AP isn’t in, doesn’t mean they can be lax on the defensive side of the ball because Matt Cassel could still shred defenses with his arm if even though he looked like a rookie last week by throwing 4 picks! But seeing the stat line for the Vikes rushing game, the 4 picks from Cassel and the 6 sacks he took, it looks like the Saints will dominate in this one. Take the Saints to win, with the points and in the Over. I think it may look like the Falcons/Buccs game Thursday. Saints 38-14.

Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bengals -7. O/U: 43.5
The Bengals have come out firing on all cylinders. Last week they made the Falcons and Matt Ryan look small in comparison due to the turnovers they created. Not only did the Bengals move the ball through the air (Daulton 15/23 65% 252 yards and 1 TD) but the RB tandem of Bernard and Hill combined for 42 carries and 164 yards and 2 TD’s. Getting 3 picks against Ryan is no easy task but the defense stepped up and look for them to be ball hawking against the Titans this week. The Titans had an opportunity to continue to bash the reeling Cowboys but failed to do so getting walloped themselves. Locker didn’t look that great throwing 2 picks to just 1 TD and the ground game couldn’t get close to 100 yards. Romo didn’t even have a great day throwing so there shouldn’t have been a reason to not stay close in the game. But there was. They couldn’t sustain their drives. The Titans just had 13 first downs on 11 drives but only 3 were over 50 yards (FG, TD, Turnover on downs). 5 of their drives had less than 10 yards gained! To be successful, you have to sustain drives and score off of the longer ones, plus have 20+ first downs. The fact they only had 13 shows they were handled by the ‘Boys’ defense. Well, since they couldn’t get it done at home against Dallas, expect the Bengals to blow them out in Cincy. Take the Bengals to win with the points -7, and in the Over. Bengals 38-14.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens –1.5. O/U: 41.5:
Baltimore has owned this series the last few years winning 9 of the last 10. In those 10 games, Baltimore has only covered 6 of them and 8 of the games finished in the under. Hoyer didn’t play the last game between the two but Ray Rice really didn’t either (11 carries/17 yards, 3 catches/21 yards). Hoyer and the air game still don’t look like a threat but that running game they have sure does pack a punch (6th in the league with average rushing yards per game). The Browns defense was supposed to be the side of the ball that would be consistent but they are 30th in the league allowing pass yards (299.5/game) and 26th in rushing(150.5/game). The Ravens played a week and a half ago, Thursday Night against another divisional foe, the Steelers. The Ravens showed some life even after a short week due to the Thursday game. Whether it be that the Ravens catching the Steelers off guard or rallied in the locker room in wake of the Ray Rice issues, they had some time to recoup and got the job done. Flacco was on point (not many yards though), and the run game did what it needed to do. The Ravens set the game plan up to a perfect winning measure by getting 25 first downs and had over 10 minutes more than the Steelers in time of procession. The NFC North usually have low scoring games against each other, don’t go against my advise here! Take the Ravens to win with the points -1.5 and the Under. Ravens 20-14.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions –2. O/U: 52.5:
The inconsistent Lions showed their ugly faces last week, bitten by the turnover bug in Carolina. Green Bay got close win at home last week against the Jets, thanks in part by the “phantom” timeout call. The Packers have owned this series, winning 8 of the last 10, Detroit however won handedly last game which was in Detroit. Flynn was in for the injured Rodgers who threw a pick and was sacked 7 times! That will not be the case Sunday. Rodgers is back and ready to claim the top of the NFC North. Both offenses will be high flying. Detroit is a more consistent team and usually play well at home. The Packers have big road game win potential with a healthy squad. Nelson had an amazing game last week racking up a career-best 209 yards on 9 catches and 1 TD. Look for much of the same there between Rodgers and Nelson, as Nelson has been the go-to guy with 9 catches in the first 2 games for 292 and 1 TD. Lacy is off to a slow start to his sophomore year in the league, and it might continue against the Lions fierce run defense (2nd best total yards allowed, 255/game and rushing yards allowed, 57.5/game). Green Bay’s defense is still forming as the pass defense has stepped up this year (6th 178.5/game) but the 2nd worst rush defense (31st 176.5/game) but they are going against the 28th worst rushing offense (73/game) but the 4th best pass offense (297/game). This will be a high scoring game at Ford field but take the Packers with the +2 points to win in the Over. Packers 38-31.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts -7. O/U: 45:
Last week was a horrible week for the Jags and their offense. The only real stat line that grabs your eyes is the sack line. Henne was sacked 10 times last week, which tied a franchise record for the Redskins. The times of Henne’s 10 sacks: 3.85, 2.22, 3.10, 2.88, 3.35, 3.01, 2.54, 2.47, 2.50 and 2.75 seconds. So the line wasn’t entirely at fault but we also don’t have the coaches game tape to see some coverages down the field. From what I saw, Henne was at fault for a good 4-5 of them just by holding the ball too long (average release time for NFL QB should be in the area of 2.75-3 seconds). Now there were blown blocks, blitzes not picked up and some coverage sacks. For a pocket passer, you can’t just get rid of the football, that’s how picks are created, nervous QB’s. Because of the dominance by the defense of the Redskins, the Jags only amassed 8 (3-13 on 3rd downs) first downs and only 20 minutes of possession and an extremely lousy 148 total yards on offense. The plus, just 1 turnover (INT). The Colts took over the entire first half of last weeks game against the Eagles and looked to have a win in the bag, leading 17-6 at half. Then the wheels fell off and they ended up losing 30-27 going 0-2 to start the season. The Colts did everything right statistically to win the game, 25 first downs, 36 minutes of possession time (13 minutes more than the Eagles) and committed 7 less penalties than the Eagles. The turnovers are what hurt the Colts in the 2nd half, here are their 2nd half drives (# plays/# yards/outcome): 3/8/Punt, 10/62/FG, 1/1/Fumble, 12/80/TD, 8/41/INT, 3/5/Punt. They had 5 drives in the first half: 3/1/Punt, 9/72/TD, 11/44/FG, 3/0/Punt, 10/58/TD. The key, no turnovers. Take the Colts in this one to win with the points -7 and in the Under, since the Jags defense has the potential to play well in the secondary but the offense is lacking scores due to issues on the line and a very young and inexperienced WR core. Colts 28-16

Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -14. O/U: 46.5:
Where should I start with this one, I mean the Patriots are giving up 14 points! The Raiders last week against a Texans team that shouldn’t put up 30 points especially since they only gave up just 139 yards through the air. It was the ground game that killed them, giving up 188 yards on the ground which gave Houston the possession win (a whopping 38:36), the 4 turnovers and the fact that Houston started 4 drives in Oakland territory (which lead to 2 FG’s, TD, and a Blocked FG). Take those points off the board, Oakland would’ve had a closer game than the score indicated and Derrick Carr played better this week but not by a whole lot (27/42 64%, 263 yards, 1TD/2INT), not to mention that he was over half of the rushing game (4 carries for 58 yards). The Raiders’ running game is in shambles. MJD is nursing his hand after undergoing an operation to fix a broken bone in his hand after week 1. He is questionable for week 3 but I would expect him to miss the game. DMC only gained an average of 3 yards per carry, which isn’t great but they were playing from behind so the passing game was thrown into full gear most of the game. The Pats are coming off a great week from a Adrian Petersonless Vikings and took advantage, blowing them out 30-7. The crazy stat is that the Pats only had 142 yards through the air. The tandem of Ridley/Vereen played well, combining for 31 carries for 141 yards and a score (Ridley was 25/101/1 TD). They didn’t have to pass as they started from their 39 or better on 5 of 11 drives and took a 24-7 lead into the half. Expect Derrick Carr to play well this week even against the 4th best passing defense (166/game) but also expect Brady to have a great game against the 27th worst pass defense (184/game). The points are hard to get over on this one so take the Pats to win but Oakland for the points +14 in the Over. Pats 31-21.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals +3. O/U: 42.
The 49ers have owned the Cards in the last 10 games, winning 9 of the last 10 games, covering the spread in 8 of them. Jim Harbaugh does not have 2 bad weeks in a row and his team dictates that on the field. They are 8-4 in games following a loss in the regular season and have covered the spread 9 of those 12 games, since 2011! That is an unreal stat. Here’s another, they are 17-7 on the road while covering 17 of those point spreads (covered a loss, did not cover one of the wins). 2 of the 7 none covered spreads were in Seattle (go figure). But still, those are numbers to bet your mortgage on! Granted, Kaepernick has a sore back but it shouldn’t play that much of a factor. The Cardinals on the other hand are the latest team to have a player connect with a domestic dispute case, Jonathan Dwyer (what’s up with these running backs lately?). Last week the Cards beat up on the woefully horrible New York Giants and Drew Stanton showed his inexperience. He was just 14/29 (48% completion percentage) for just under 170 yards. They will be without him and Carson Palmer (shoulder) on Sunday and will have Andre Ellington in the lineup after suffering a foot injury last week. The test will be for the 49ers against one of the better defenses in the league. I like the 49ers in this one simply because they are one of if not the best road team in the NFL. Take the 49ers to win with the points -3 in the Under. 49ers 28-10

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Seahawks -4.5. O/U: 48:
There really isn’t much to say here. The Seahawks are 16-1 in their last 17 home games. If you think the Broncos had a hard time on neutral site last meeting, wait until you see them in Seattle. The only neat thing you may see, unless Richard Sherman says so, is Peyton Manning climbing into the 500 TD club which Brett Favre is the only exclusive member so far. Lots of new faces on defense but it hasn’t changed much, they are the 28th worst D but 10th best allowing rushing yards. These two teams haven’t changed much since the Supper Bowl except location. Keep the past in mind, Peyton looked frustrated, uncomfortable and uneasy in the game you should be most prepared for. Another stat to keep in mind, he Broncos have won their 2 games this year but have lost their only 2 spreads so far. Last week they were just kept off of the field in the second half due to the Chiefs sucking up almost 18 minutes of possession! That doesn’t speak to much of that new defense they have been promoting. You just don’t mess with a home streak like this, and no, I don’t care that Wes Welker might be back this week. Yes I know, the biggest game of the week and the least amount of analysis but hey, these numbers are sick and you can’t go against them. Take the Seahawks to win with the points -4.5 and in the over. Seahawks 30-24

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -3.5. O/U: 42.5:
Miami and Buffalo was supposed to be a pick’em game in some eyes. The Bills were only favored by 1 and still crushed the Fins. Where is the blame placed? The special teams didn’t have a great day, which accounted for the Bills scoring 10 points in a matter of 2 minutes and 2 seconds (blocked Punt in Miami territory and a kickoff return TD)! Miami also shot themselves in the foot by not having a drive over 30 yards in the first half (plays/yards: 4/14, 5/14, 4/-8, 4/10, 3/3, 6/29). That just reeks of a mediocre offense but they came out firing with back to back scoring drives of 64 yards both for a FG and TD but slipped back to the first half numbers only to have a60 last drive end in a INT. This is a team that beat the Patriots by 13 in week 1! A little Jekell and Hyde scares me for any type of long range success. The Chiefs are having a bit of an 0-2 crisis of their own. They are in the bottom half in the league with everything (18th pass off 212.5/game, 22nd rush off 100/game, 19th pass defense 240/game, 23rd rush defense 125/game). Those are terrible numbers. They got blown out by the Titans in week one and put a rally of some sorts on the Broncos last week in that loss. The good news was that the offense was clicking and Alex Smith still had a decent game and ended up with more yards than Peyton. The offense strung together a possession time of 36:14, 12 and a half full minutes over Denver (and Denver usually takes forever to drive the ball down the field with the Omaha King)! That was thanks in large part to 28, yes count them, 28 first downs! The Chiefs ran about twice the amount of plays and kept Peyton off the field for most of the second half (which is probably why the Broncos only scored 24) with drives of 10 and almost 8 minutes in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Unfortunately they missed a FG on the 10 minute drive. Holding the ball on 2 drives that is more than 1 quarter of play is amazing and if done again, they must get more points off of for that to be a feature of their game they can build on. I think they test that theory again this week and pummel an offensively weak Miami team due to Knowshon Moreno being out. The weather is going to be a high of about 83 with chance of thunderstorms before 8 pm so don’t expect the heat to play a factor for the Chiefs as it did for the Patriots. Take the Chiefs to win with the points +3.5 but in the Under. Chiefs 21-17.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Panthers -3.5. O/U: 42:
The Steelers are reeling after a rough start with 2 divisional games, almost losing to the Browns and dealing with a punishing ground game last week in a loss to the Ravens. They are ranked 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed (174/game). Now it’s time to play against a team that is 25th (87.5/game) in the league in rushing. Surprisingly, Big Ben and the passing game are 5th (289/game) in the league, which will have a nice test going against the 12th (207.5/game) best pass defense. In order for the Steelers to have success this week, they have to limit the turnovers, in which they had 3 last week. They also lost the possession battle due to the turnovers by 10 minutes and committed 5 more penalties for 40 more yards. The Steelers had only 3 drives over 40 yards (64, 73, 72) and only scored once on the drives with just a FG, fumbling and throwing an INT on the others. The Panthers are off to a nice 2-0 start thanks to a week 1 fill in win by Derek Anderson and a blowout win against a high powered Lions offense last week that was just shut down. One of the keys were the turnovers the Panthers caused (3). The Lions had back to back possessions in the 4th quarter where they threw an INT and fumbled that the Panthers turned into a TD and FG on that next possession. Cam had a good first game of the season, 22/34 (65%) for 281 yards and TD, and ran 4 times for 19 yards (4.8/average per carry). This is going to be a tough game for both teams and the score will indicate that. I like the Panthers to win this one but take the Steelers for the points +3.5 in the Under. Panthers 19-17.

Check back tomorrow for my Monday Night pick and prediction. Good luck all!

Week 2 Sunday Games Preview and Predictions

It’s always hard to predict how the first week turns out with who wins and loses let alone giving advice on the spreads and over/unders. I’d like to say that I faired ok in the spreads given some of the upsets and closer than should’ve been performances of some teams and faired better on the over/unders but not by much. The first week is the first full game action for everyone and for most teams, not all of the bugs are worked out. Some of my surprises included the Jags first half, Saints/Pats/Bears/Chiefs losing, the Cowboys’ turnovers and the Packers not staying with the Seahawks.

A lot of other things happened this week that will affect the week 2 games. Ray Rice is now unemployed and suspended from the league indefinitely, Adrian Peterson was indicted on child abuse charges and is deactivated for this week, the drug policy has changed which would mean the likes of Wes Welker would be activated for this week but might not play given his lack of practice this week, and Josh Gordon may have his year long suspension reduced to 8 games. There was a lot of sloppy play over the first week as we saw the usually poised players crumble. You can only imagine that this past week of practice sured up some of the holes in last play. So I was 7-9 against the spread, I was 9-7 for my Over/Under calls, that counts for something right? I’m only taking 3 dogs this week and I feel pretty good about them. Here are the picks:

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: -1 O/U: 42.5:
Both teams surprisingly came out strong last week pulling off upset wins, Bills over the Bears and the Dolphins over the Pats. EJ looked good completing over 70% of his passes and even had a rushing TD while his running backs ran for over 170 yards against a usually stout Bears defense. He did it twice last year during his rookie season and they both resulted in wins as well. The only time he was able to follow up at 70% completion percentage he threw for under 50%. EJ is still young and hasn’t been able to hit a stride while overcoming injuries in his rookie year. This may be his turn around if he can stay healthy. The Dolphins last week ran the ball well, racking up 191 yards on the ground and averaging 5 yards per carry. Not so well throwing the ball as Tannehill is still trying to prove that he is the Fins’ franchise QB. EJ will take advantage of how well he throws the ball short and intermediately which will keep the Dolphins on their toes then hit them with the run game. Take the Bills at home -1 in the over as both teams have a good run game which will open up the pass for both teams. Bills 24-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Redskins -6.5. O/U: 43.5:
The Jags came out like they were shot out of a cannon last week in the first half with a 17-0 lead. They caused turnovers and Chad Henne put the ball into the hands of a rookie wide receiver named Allen Hurns (3 receptions in the 1st quarter for 101 yards). The turning point was the opening drive in the second half when faced with a 4th and 1, the Eagles snapped the ball before the Jags defense was set and went 49 yards for the score and didn’t look back. The Jags now have a great first half to work off of and fix that horrendous second half. The Redskins have deeper issues. They only had 2 completions over 20 yards even though RGIII had a completion percentage over 70%, he couldn’t get the ball in the end zone and fumbled twice losing one of them. The Redksins had 46 yards on 4 drives in the first quarter all resulting in punts and had their 2 longest drives (78 & 79 yards, back to back drives in the 3rd quarter) end as a result of a lost fumble. The Redskins allowed 3 long drives of 68, 83. and 89 yards with a quarterback that isn’t known for driving the ball down the field. Fitzpatrick had just over 200 yards for the game and the Texans only had 115 yards on the ground. Expect the Jags to keep it close even if they lose since Henne looked really good to open off the game and to have Toby Gerhart get more carries. I’m always one for giving a guy the benefit of the doubt when the system around him constantly changes (like Alex Smith), so don’t be surprised if Henne has a breakout year (you heard it here first). The Jags won’t wait until their 9th game this year for their first win so take them +6.5 in the Over. Jags 24-21.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Titans –3.5. O/U: 49.5:
The Cowboys surprised us in a good way but mostly in a bad way last week. With tons of injuries to their defense, we expected the defense to struggle but they didn’t and held the 49ers to just 28 points. The offense however fluttered and Romo disintegrated in the first half with 3 interceptions which 2 converted into touchdowns for the 49er also returning an opening drive fumble by DeMarco Murray for a score. 21-3 after the first, 7-14 the rest of the game. Take away the turnovers and Romo’s terrible field vision on those 3 drives, that game was winnable. The Cowboys will have a difficult time duplicating their performance given the effort needed to hold an offense like the 49ers. Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt is like a quarterback whisperer. He has taken Big Ben and Kurt Warner to the Super Bowl, winning with Big Ben and revived Phillip Rivers’s career last year, bringing him a successful winning season. Look for the Whis to make some magic with Jake Locker who had a pretty good game last week. Take the Titans to win but the Cowboys for the points if it stays at 3 or higher in the Over. Titans 28-27.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Giants -2.5. O/U: 43:
Who knows where to start with the Giants. Eli Completed under 55% of his passes and only averaged 4.9 yards per pass, and oh yeah, the run game wasn’t there either. The Giants as well only carried the ball on average 2 yards per carry and Eli only threw for 163 yards and 2 picks to 1 TD. Out of 10 drives, the Giants scored on 2 (drives of 79 and 80 yards). The other 8 drives sucked up just 61 yards of offense only averaging 7.6 yards per drive outside of the 2 they scored on. That’s not just bad, that is a significant offensive meltdown. That’s not the outcome anyone would expect having all summer and preseason to get ready to go for the season. The Cardinals looked good against a tough, gritty Chargers however came out of the game with a banged up Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer, but both are expected to play Sunday. All but 1 Cardinals receiver had less than 30 yards receiving which only meant that Palmer who had over 300 yards, had a really good day with one receiver and spread the ball around to others. Michael Floyd had 5 catches for 119 yards while 10 other guys caught the other 19 passes for 185 yards. Larry Fitzgerald had 4 targets and only 1 catch for 22 yards. Expect him to have a bigger roll against the Giants. Take the Cardinals getting +2.5 points to win in the Over. Cards 27-20.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -6. O/U: 48:
For the first time since Christmas Eve 2000, the New England Patriots are in sole possession of last place in the AFC East. It is rare for Tom Brady to have back to back weeks and this is the Bills we are talking about here. Gronk didn’t get a whole lot of game time but expect that to change this week. Tom is only 8-6 when throwing the ball more than 50 times in a game during the regular season. He is now also only 1-3 when he throws more than 50 times and completes less than 60% of his passes. He only averaged 4.4 yards per pass but also was sacked 4 times (all in the second half) as well and that is most likely due to trading away their starting center Logan Mankins. The Vikings however will be without Adrian Peterson this week as I mentioned above due to being indicted for child abuse. The Vikings don’t have Toby Gerhart to lean on in AP’s absence so the running game will struggle. The Patriots don’t often lose 2 games in a row so look for the Patriots to bounce back. The line for the game opened at +3 for the Vikings and have only changed to +6 with the AP news. I’m surprised it didn’t move more given what AP can do with the rock. With this in mind, you have to take the Patriots with the points to win in the Under. Pats 27-14.

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -6 O/U: 47.5:
The Saints are typically average on the road which proved to be the point for the defense as the Falcons slammed the Saints D for 568 yards. Drew Brees looked in mid season form with his 333 yard performance almost getting to 70% completion percent but only found the end zone once. The run game for the Saints averaged 4 yards per carry which is above par from last year (3.8 per carry for the whole season). The Browns surprisingly kept up with the Steelers last year losing by a last second field goal. Credit the Browns running game for keeping them in the game with the Steelers (30 carries for 183 yards, 6 yds avg. per carry). Hoyer was good enough (completing 61% of his passes for 230 yards, 1 TD) but the inexperience with having to share time with Manziel in the pre season has set the air game a bit back. Expect the Saints to continue their air offense dominance with Brees and new weapon, rookie Brandon Cooks (7 catches for 77 yards and 1 TD). Take the Saints -6 in the Over. Saints 34-14.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bengals –5. O/U: 48.5:
The Bengals have covered the spread in all homes games last year and in the last handful of seasons, teams that played the Saints the week before only have won 38% of their next weeks games. When you play the Saints, there area lot of things you have to cover to stop them defensively and they are one of the quickest paced teams causing more fatigue than normal. Andy Daulton and AJ Green looked like they hadn’t stopped playing pitch and catch since the 2013 season ended. Daulton had a 301 yard game but with just 1 TD to AJ who caught 6 passes for 131 yards. They had to make up for a lackluster run game which only racked up 79 yards against the Ravens in Baltimore. The Falcons brought it against the Saints and Matt Ryan blew up for 448 yards and 3 scores in the season opener at home. He didn’t look affected by the absence of Tony Gonzalez. Follow the stats in this one. Bengals undefeated at home last year while covering in all of those games and the week after playing the Saints, NFL teams usually lose. Take the Bengals to win -5 in the Over. Bengals 30-24.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -2.5. O/U: 43.5:
Cam is back in action this week and we got a taste of what this new receiving core can do last week. Fill in Derek Anderson completed 71% of his throws for 230 yards and a pair of scores, doing his best to fill in for Cam being out rehabbing his ribs. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin showed flashes of what he can provide Cam this year with his 6 catches for 92 yards and a TD. DeAngelo Williams showed flashes of a younger self carrying the ball 14 times for 72 yards but is questionable Sunday with a thigh injury. Stafford to Megatron was the show and accounted for 2 early TD’s on back to back drives. Rushing the ball for the Lions, on the other hand, was not as plentiful as the air game with just 76 yards on 30 carries! Just 2 yards on average per run! Reggie was kept quiet on the ground but made some noise through the air. Expect much of the same from the Lions but be weary, the Lions are known for their inconsistency from week to week. Hopefully that changes with their new coach. Still, I would take the Lions getting +2.5 points on the road and to win in the Over largely because of Stafford’s 2nd weapon Golden Tate who had 6 catches for 93 yards (44 yards his longest catch). Lions 31-27.

St. Louis Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -2.5 O/U: 38:
Both teams walked out of week 1 with key injuries and some will miss this Sunday’s matchup. Rams DE Chris Long will be out until mid November with ankle surgery, QB Shaun Hill quad strain. The Buccs DE Gholston has a shoulder issue, DE Bowers has an abdominal tear, DE Johnson will be out with an ankle injury, DE Clayborn was placed on the I-R with a torn Bicep, DB Melvin out with an ankle injury, CB Mike Jenkins was placed on the I-R tearing his pectoral muscle, TE Seferian-Jenkins is out with an ankle injury and G/C Logan Mankins with a left knee issue as well as RB Doug Martin. Did you get all of that? Neither teams offense had much success in the first week and struggled to get anything going on the ground. Doug Martin had 9 carries for 9 yards before leaving the game injured. He hasn’t been the same since his rookie year. The Buccs need veteran McCown to help lead the younger offense through this season to get into a rhythm like he had with the Bears last year. That might start this game since the Rams are struggling to find their identity on offense (and struggling to find a reliable starting QB) let alone losing a huge leader for their D. It will be sloppy, it will be boring. Take the Buccs at home with the points -2.5 and in the Under. Buccs 24-13.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks –6 O/U: 44.5:
Long rest versus short rest. The Seahawks played a week and a half ago in the 2014 NFL opener at home against the Packers while the Chargers were in Arizona on Monday night. The Seahawks dominated the Packers from the get-go and won handidly against a great Aaron Rodgers but head to San Diego who faced no push over on Monday night, the Arizona Cardinals. The Chargers had a hard time getting the ball moving on the ground with just 52 totals team rushing yards and the game was a bit of a snoozer in the first half but losing by 1 on the road will have Rivers fired up for Sunday. He’s already mentioned to the media that he will not be scared to throw it Richard Sherman’s way, unlike Rodgers who didn’t test the corner all game long in the 2014 NFL season opener. The Seahawks are unreal/dominating at home and good enough on the road. Most of their road wins are close games even against mediocre teams, this may be the same case given how well the Chargers improved last year. The points have changed drastically since the opening of the line at +3.5. However, now it’s up to +6 for the Bolts which makes this a juicy action game. I like the Seahawks still wining this game however take the Chargers +6 at home in the Over. Seahawks 24-21.

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Texans -2.5. O/U: 39.5:
Houston is coming out of a week where they lost their #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney at least until mid October to microscopic knee surgery and who saw their average starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, played, well, average. Arian Foster sort of got back to his old form, rushing 27 times for 103 yards for only 3.8 yards per carry. Oakland decided to go against starting the former Texans starting star QB Matt Schaub and instead went with the highly touted rookie Derek Carr. Carr didn’t disappoint, completing 63% of his passes for only 151 yards but for 2 TD’s and 0 picks. Their rushing game however, probably the worst in the league at this point, rushing for only 25 yards on 15 carries, with 3 different backs and Carr with a run for -1 yard. Word is Maurice Jones-Drew is out for Sunday so it’s Darren McFadden’s show if he can stay healthy. He performed the best, 4 rushes for 15 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry. With Carr showing what he can do and if the running game doesn’t get going again, look for the Raiders to give him a ton of work. I don’t see Fitzpatrick being the Texans solution at QB since Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins need a QB that has the arm strength to drive the ball down the field, which Fitz can’t do. Look for the Texans to have a heavy dose of rushing in their offensive gameplay with the Raiders giving up over 200 yards on the ground to 4 different rushers. That will give them control of most of the game’s time of possession. Expect a low scoring game but the Texans to hold on to get a win. Take the Texans with the points -2.5 in the Over. Texans 24-20.

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Packers -8 O/U: 46:
The Packer fans were optimistic coming into the season opener against the Super Bowl Champs. They left disappointed. The Packers were embarrassed, much like the Broncos were back in February, which also had snap issues like Peyton did early in the SB. The Packers only scored 8 more points than the high octane offense of Denver. Eddie Lacy was diagnosed with a concussion and is probable for Sunday but expected to play. The Packers T Bulaga suffered a torn MCL last week, and yes is still questionable for Sunday. The Packers struggled to get going on the ground rushing only for 80 yards which didn’t bode well for Rodgers who only passed for 189 yards with a TD and a INT but completing 70% of his throws however only averaging 5.7 per attempt. Geno Smith did exceptionally well for the Jets last week, completing 82% of his passes for 221 yards with a TD and INT but also set the rushing game up for a big day, over 200 yards on the ground! The Jets were only able to score 2 offensive TD’s due to a pair of turnovers on consecutive drives and 5 stalled drives resulting in a punt. They did have 3 long drives (81-Fumble, 80-TD, 71-TD). Geno is still learning but it’s 2nd year time now, there shouldn’t be much of a curve in his game so look for him to be more consistent especially now with new weapon, Eric Decker. Jordy Nelson saw 14 targets and came up with some huge catches out of his 9 receptions for 83 yards. The corners are not as good on the Jets so look for Rodgers to pick them apart with having both Cobbs and Nelson healthy. Don’t look too much into the Jets only allowing Oakland to have 25 rushing yards. Oakland has an aging MJD and an up and down back in DMC. Take the Packers to win with the points -8 in the Over. Packers 31-20.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10.5 O/U: 52
Peyton wasn’t kidding when he said Wes Welker will be hard to replace. He relied heavily on his TE Julius Thomas, who had 3 TD’s all in the 2nd quarter, much to his fantasy owners delight. Even though Peyton didn’t have his typical 300/400/500 yards passing, he got the Broncos up big and early, leading 24-7 at the half. Their defense only allowed 54 yards (3.8 average yards per carry) on the ground but Indy had to turn to the air early and often to catch back up to the Broncos. The Chiefs were stunned last week by a very determined Titans group under their new coach Ken Whisenhunt. The usually stellar defense of the Chiefs we slashed for 162 yards on the ground while Jake Locker tallied 266 yards through the air. KC’s offense just down right fizzled. Alex Smith looked like he did from his first 6-7 years in the league, terrible completion percentage and TD/INT ratio (1/3). Don’t get me started on the running game. An abysmal 67 yards with Alex Smith leading the way with 36 of those. Jamaal Charles had 19 yards, and he didn’t leave early due to injury….maybe due to damage to his pride or ego which made him check out mentally. Clearly the only option they looked at in the air game was Donny Avery who had 7 catches for 84 yards. Dwayne Bowe is expected to be back in the lineup after serving his suspension last week, so look for the Chiefs to rebound with one more weapon on the field. But still, we are talking about the Broncos here, so take them to win with the points -10.5 in the Over. Broncos 34-21.

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers,

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: 49ers -7. O/U: 48.5:

Last but not least on the docket for Sunday night, the Bears go on the road to avenge their home opener loss to the underdog Bills. This will be a tough one for them however, due to Brandon Marshall having ankle issues and Alshon Jeffrey having hamstring issues even sitting out of practice on Thursday. Both Cutler and Kaepernick completed 69% of their passes! Cutler with more yards but also 2 picks to Kaep’s 0. Matt Forte proved to be as solid as ever having 17 carries for 82 yards and 8 catches for 87 yards. Tons of questions followed the 49ers defense, wondering if they could stop Tony Romo and the high flying Cowboys offense, boy did they ever. They caused Tony to throw 3 picks in the first half. The Cowboys also fumbled 3 times recovering only 1 but scoring on the first caused fumble early in the first quarter. In the last few years they prove that they could win without Aldon Smith, well, they did it again and will continue to do so here against the Cowboys. At this point the 49ers are the obvious pick. They were more consistent last week but Kaep has to target more than 4 receivers to win. The Bears can keep it close if Marshall and Jeffrey are healthy. Take the Bears with the points +7 but the 49ers to win in the Over. 49ers 30-24.

Look for my Monday night preview between the Eagles and Colts, tomorrow.

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