CHIEFS – Page 3 – Necessary Roughness

Week 11: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Starting the week with a win on Thursday is something I’ve done quite a bit this year. Getting that first win sets the tone for my picks for the rest of the week. It’s not that I’ll be a little more risky with my picks after a Thursday win or more cautious if I had lost but the confidence is stronger and there’s less second guessing. I’m on my road to magical numbers and I haven’t lost sight of the overall goal (56%-60%) winners.

I told you the Steelers are just a different team at home, however I didn’t expect the cover win by 23! Mariota didn’t look too comfortale early and that ruined whatever confidence he had coming into the ketchup bottle. If you liked that pick and took it, you’re going to love these. On to Sunday’s games:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1p (Bears +3, O/U: 41)

The Bears are coming off a shocking loss against the Packers. Mitch-a-palooza had to strap up his work belt extra tight given that his rushing game was non-existant. Howard had 15 carries for 54 yards (3.6 yards per carry) but one rush snapped off for 25 which puts his other 14 carries at just over 2 yards per carry. Bears can’t put that much on Trubisky’s shoulders and expect to win. The Lions had trouble putting the Browns away last week. Being tied with the Browns heading into the 4th quarter at home, has me nervous about them along with both teams record against the spread (5-4) and the Lions away ATS record (3-1) and the Bears home ATS record (4-1). Take the Lions to cover in the over, 27-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +7.5, O/U: 37)

The Browns come into this game with one of the lowest scoring offenses (15.9) in the league while facing one of the best defenses who has allowed the least amount of points to it’s opponents (14.9). The Browns held it together for three strong quarters agains the Lions in Detroit last week which tells me that they still repect their coach and will play hard, even being winless. The Jaguars pulled out an OT win against the Chargers who are a very strong road team. Bortles slipped into his old was with low completion percentage and more picks than TD’s but were able to steal a win. Take the Jaguars to cover in the under, 24-10.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, 1p (Packers +2, O/U: 38)

The Packers picked up a crucial win against the Bears last week, and right when I wrote off Hundley. Unfortunately for the Packers, Montgomery and Jones are both likely to miss this game meaning Jamaal Williams will have to fill in, which he did very successfully last week. Baltimore had a bye week but the week before, they nearly knocked off the Titans in their own house. This coming from a team that just seems very bland and not really excitting, especially on the road. Take the Packers to cover in the over, 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -2, O/U: 37.5)

In a league where your quarterback is the most valuable player on your team (and highest paid player), it’s inheriantly important that they stay healthy. With Palmer and Watson out, it becomes a battle between Stanton and Savage. Get ready for 50% completions and a bunch of running. These kinds of games make picking a winner very hard. You litterally have to go through the rosters and base it off of the position matchup and then if you’re still baffled, go to coaching. Here, I like the coaching and the offense of the Cardinals so take them to cover in the under, 17-13.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 45.5)

This is an interesting matchup, one to watch. Both teams are 7-2, 6-3 ATS, at the top of their divisions, and have exceeded their pre-season expectations from day one. The Vikings had doneit with Sam Bradford in the first game but with Case Keenum ever since, which is impressive. The Rams success started with the change at head coach which seemed to have sparked Jared Goff. Both defenses are solid but expect this to be more of a shootout. Again, we have to matchup the QB’s and start spelling out who’s better where. The Rams just have a stronger team and will cover in the over, 31-27.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7.5, O/U: 51.5)

Nothing to surprise you with here about the Saints. They have returned to their offensive prowess but also added some solid running to their game. Drew Brees isn’t throwing as many passes but still is effective while he has Ingram and Kamra behind him enjoying great seasons especially since Ap has left town. The Redskins followed up their huge win in Seattle by hanging along another of the leagues better teams, the Vikings but ultimately losing. The Redskins have a commitee backfield which is tough to get consistency running the ball. Take the Saints to cover in the under, 31-17.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +10.5, O/U:+45.5)

So this is where the Giants are at, they lost to the (at the time) winless 49ers. Eli kept it together and didn’t throw a pick but his defense (which is supposed to be their bright spot), broke down badly. Run game, pass game, the 49ers just had their way with the Giants defense. The Chiefs had to deal with Zeke who whittled their defense down for 27 carries. Andy Reid off of bye weeks is one of if not the best at coming away with a win. Take the Chiefs to cover in the under, 27-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +1, O/U: 42)

The matchup that was supposed to happen week one is finally on 11 weeks later. Given the way they both have played this year, I wouldn’t be mad if they just took another bye week. They both have disappointing offenses and to demonstrate how this game with go, grease your hand up with butter and try to turn a door nob. Take the Buccs to cover in the under, 17-14.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -6, O/U: 41)

The Bills are turning to their rookie quarterback (seems to be a growing trend lately), marking his first start and road game seeing action. McCoy hasn’t been his normal self. The Chargers have been pressing opponents lately, at home and on the road (mostly on the road). The Chargers nearly stole one in Jacsonville last week. This week the Chargers take over the rookie with their dangerous pass rush and to cover in the under, Chargers 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -2.5, O/U: 38)

The Bengals just haven’t looked right all year. The frustrations seems to boil a few weeks ago when Green was throwing haymakers in the first half. Dalton looked better this week but with no running game, they can’t setup defenses for the pass. The Broncos are another example of why quarterbacks are important to your team. Not just important, vital! Siemianhasn’t worked since last year and to be so desperate to bring back Osweiller, says a lot about how they feel about their QB situation. I feel like the Bronceos defense won’t allow another loss at home. Take the Broncos to win in the under, 16-10.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (MC), 4:25p (Raiders +7.5, O/U: 54.5)

Mexico City will see their first NFL game in live action and it’s two well respected and talented teams. I said this earlier and actually called it in my first game this year, I like the Patriots but 7 or more points are reserved for team like the Browns, Giants, Colts and maybe even the 49ers. Neutral field games for the Patriots (basically all of their super bowls), have mostly all been close but it is Tom Brady we’re talking about. The Raiders had a slip up in the beginning with Carr missing some games but are back on track with a couple of wins strunge together. Big bets are on the Pats and this being a neutral field, makes it that much tougher. Take the Raiders to cover but loss in the under, Pats 24-21.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30p (Cowboys +6, O/U: 48)

The Eagles come into this one as one of, if not the hottest team in the NFL. Carson Wentz and his new additions have been lights out and the defense has been quite impressive as well, but offense always gets the head lines. The Eagles have shown consistency week in and week out and will continue to do so this week. The Cowboys have been on the Zeke roller coaster every week with news he’d be either in or out of the headlines. Well, Zeke is finally going to serve those 6 weeks and the ‘Boys will be down Sean Lee as well, whose the go to guy or the quarterback of the defense. This all coming as the season takes a turn to the finish line. Take the Eagles to cover in the over, 34-20.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 had an amazing start. Four weeks in, he was 15-5 (75% winners) but have calmed to a very respectable 30-20 (60%) but he is still picking gem weeks. He really likes Chiacago becasue he’s been burnt by the Lions before. Some advice, when I agree with betting on a team with Colin, my record is 21-10 (68% winners). This week, we’ll call them locks, Packers and Eagles. I actually would bet HEAVY on the Eagles if you get them anywhere near his line but even at 7 or less really. Here are his picks/lines from Friday:

Detroit at Chicago – Chicago (+3)
Cincinnati at Denver – Denver (-2.5)
Tampa Bay at Miami – Tampa Bay (+3)
Baltimore at Green Bay – Green Bay (+2)
Philadelphia at Dallas – Philadelphia (-3.5)

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Week 9 wasn’t quite as “coachable” as I thought but we technically still didn’t have a losing week, going 6-6-1. Shocks of last week were the Bills (embarrassing actually), the Ravens, the Bengals coming out flatter than flat, the Chiefs and Dolphins actually keeping up with an NFL team. Basically all of my losses and the push were shocks. Some road favorites were some of those losses which are tougher covers. Hard week but we have another good one brewing starting with tonight’s game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 8:25p (Cardinals +6, O/U: 40)

New addition to the offensive line for the Seahawks, Duane Brown, was adventurous but he improved the line from weeks ago. It was adventurous due to the fact that he had a few penalties along with the rest of the team, a season high 16. Those penalties, a ridiculous number mind you, helped keep the Redskins close and in the end, Cousins capitalized and won the game for them being as accurate as ever. Wilson nearly pulled off a comeback on his own, striking hard and fast down the field but ultimately leaving too much time on the clock. The Seahawks still have a staunch defense and can eat up the Cardinals given their lack of an arm under center which will be a difference maker.

The Cardinals made a smart move a few weeks back in picking AP up. In 3 starts, 2 of them have seen him carry the ball 25+ times for 130+ yards in each game. It looks like the AP of old and he has to be given Stanton, his hapless quarterback. Stanton showed some accuracy late in the game last week but ultimately was just mediocre. Fitzgerald was se I effective but with 5 catches for just 70 yards, expect him to continue being the lead receiver but in a dink and dunk offense.

Look for the Seahawks to take out some aggression this week, rectifying last weeks bad loss at home (which is usually a guarantee in Seattle). The Cardinals can run all they want but if the Hawks stack the box, I don’t see AP getting much going (even though I would like him too since he’s starting on my fantasy team). Take the Seahawks to win in the under, Seahawks 24-14.

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment. Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball? My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks. I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season. Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much. Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite? Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game? Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game. As long as they keep from turning the ball over. The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season. I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game. Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara. Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Last week we ended up at 8-6 thanks to a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the 4th by Derek Henry. All the Colts had to do was keep the Titans in front of them and they had the game covered by a half point. That’s betting pro ball for ya. The Titans needed to break an 11 game losing skid against the Colts and they did it in fashion. regardless, an 8-6 record, keeps you in the plus and above the juice if you’re using an online source that takes 5%. Now, to the Thursday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, 8:25p (Raiders +3, O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City is coming off a bad loss against the Steelers and at home even. Alex Smith had a hard time all game long, where most of his yardage came in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs couldn’t even get their run game going. Rookie sensation Kareen Hunt was held to 21 yards on 9 carries but had 5 catches for 89 yards. Pittsburgh also held the ball for over 36 minutes which kept the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm (3/11 on 3rd downs). Derek Carr came back last week after 2 weeks off to basically a broken back. Miraculously he felt good enough to play but certainly didn’t look the same. The run game was average and usually when that happens, you have to be special through the air, which Carr was not. Whether Carr is even healthier this week, still raises questions but at 2-4 for the year, they desperately need a win and signed former 49er NaVorro Bowman to help their floundering defense. The Chiefs have been one of the strongest road teams this year, winning and covering the spread in all 3 road games this year, while scoring in the over in 2 of those 3. For a strong team like the Chiefs, after a loss like last week, a bounce back game is in order. Take the Chiefs as road favorites to cover in the win but in the under, as I don’t think Carr is 100% and that’ll affect his game, Chiefs 27-17.

Thursday Night Football stats: 5-1 ATS with a current streak of 4 covers in a row!

One last thing since I won’t blog before Saturday, GO BLUE!!! Yeah, I said it….

Week 6: Thursday Night Football

Welp, (that’s what these kids are saying nowadays right?), the Vikings came oh so close to covering for me last week to push me to an even week. It would’ve been sweet to come back to you today to at least say, “still only one losing week so far this year”, but no. Mitch-a-palooza had to play half decent for a rookie getting his first start on Monday night. Kid can throw and move and throw on the move, wow! He was hitting guys in the hands near the sidelines while running away from 300 pound guys trying to catch him as a late Monday night snack. He could be the real deal for them.

Shockers of the week were road teams, Panthers, Jags, Seahawks, Ravens, who were all road dogs and won. I tell ya, I can’t figure out the 1 o’clock and the Sunday night games. That seems to be my Bermuda Triangle. Just take a look, everywhere else I’m excellent:

ATS	O/U	ATS	O/U
Thursday Night		Sunday 1p
4-1	2-3	17-25-1	24-19
80%	40%	41%	56%
Sunday 4p		Sunday Night
11-7	3-4	2-3	2-3
61%	43%	40%	40%
Monday Night		Primetime	(Thr/Sun/Mon)
4-1-1	3-2-1	10-5-1	7-8-1
80%	60%	66%	47%
Bookend Nights (Thr/Mon)		Overall
8-2-1	5-5-1	*38-37-2*	*42-34-1*
80%	50%	*51%*	*55%*

Listen, I don’t want to tell you to stay away from my picks but if you look at my Sunday 1pm games and/or my Sunday night games, please be skeptical at best about them. On to tonight’s game (where by the way, I’m 80% winners for the year):

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers, 8:25p (Panthers -3, O/U: 45.5)

This is probably the first matchup of the year on Thursday night that pits 2 hot teams against each other, with both teams being 4-1.

The Panthers have seen a resurgence from Cam Newton in the last 2 weeks. 300 yard games, well over 70% completions, 6 TD’s/1 INT. I must admit, I sold on Cam early and didn’t do my research. In the last 5 seasons, of Cam’s 6 plus in the NFL, Cam has had a losing record and then followed it with a winning record. He’s gone from touchdowns in the teens to the 20’s and 30’s in the following year. There’s something about Cam that must feed off of the doubters because he’s having a career year throwing the ball and I couldn’t have been more wrong about him.

I sold a bit early because I saw the super bowl slump follow him into this year’s first 3 games and couldn’t take any more. 18 games of poor quarterback play with big weapons and he only managed about a TD per game, that’s not winning you jack in fantasy.

Cut to the Panther’s defense who is 3rd in the league going against the Eagles 3rd ranked offense. It’ll be a showdown to see who will prevail. Wentz, who has an astounding 3/1 TD/INT ratio, is having a breakout year and has the league buzzing. He’s big, can move, strong arm, basically everything you look for in a franchise QB, he’s got IT. The Panthers have one of the leagues worst turnover differentials at -4 (28th) while the Eagles have the leagues 10th best at +2.

This should be a close one and the big selling point for me is the Eagles play on the road. They’ve gone into Washington against a good team with a top 10 defense and won, into the NFL’s best team and top 2 hardest stadiums to play in on the road (Chiefs) and lost by 7, and went to LA against the Chargers and came away with a 2 point victory.

Carolina’s success recently has been on the road and when home, they were hard to watch. Yes, Cam has looked great in his last 2 starts and he may do well this week but dink and dunk passes aren’t going to win you games against the Eagles who can really push the ball down the field in chunks. I consider the Eagles to be either the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFL right now but have Carolina lingering between 8-10 only because of their play the last 2 weeks.

Don’t get too high on Cam just yet (yes, I’m still a bit skeptical with no Olsen and Benjamin 3rd on the team in catches), the Eagles have been a team of consistency this year and that speaks more to the composure of a team rather than hot and cold weeks that Cam has given the last year and a half. Take the Eagles as road dogs to cover and I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win in the over, 27-24.

Week 5: Sunday Games with Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

The week started off great with a big win. I know Gronk was listed as out and that changed the line late but given I was finishing up the article, I didn’t hear about his injury until right at kickoff. Ok, let’s not jinx the good start so far and get to todays picks.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, 1p (Bengals -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Bills defense has shown up to play this year. They got Matty Ice to look average again (which he is) by throwing all kinds of looks at him and rushing hard. People undersold on the Bills early on but they’ve proven they can beat the best on the road. The Bengals had a good week, doesn’t mean you should jump back on board but they looked much better. Daulton can move a little in the pocket but can he stand in there with rushers coming after him and be responsible with the ball? Take the Bills to win in the Over, 24-21.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Pickem, O/U: 40)

The Jets are another team that was sold out on early on. They were picked to go 0-16 by the great Colin Cowherd. They’re now tied with the Patriots and have a good shot to stay up near the top of the AFC. They have to get their offense going to do so though. Their defense has allowed 92 points and their offense has only scored 75. Being 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road speaks volumes, they need their fans and the comfort of playing at home to play well. McCown has completed 70% of his passes but has a 3/3 TD/INT ratio. Their run game is their strength, 7th in the league. The Browns defense isn’t the worst but it’s still down there. They’ve thrown Kizer to the wolves and the poor kid can’t even break free. 51% completions, 3 TD’s to 8 INT’s. It doesn’t look good for him. There’s not one bright spot on this team and they’re going to vey for the 1st pick in the draft again and probably squander it again. Take the Jets as a straight up winner in the under, 17-10.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions, 1p (Lions -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Panthers went into New England and upset the defending Champs. It was a shocking win and Cam looked like his old self. It’s been almost a year and a half since we’ve seen him perform like that. The Lions have had way too many come from behind games in the 4th quarter to my liking and they’ve been exceptionally lucky in those games, coming out better than .500 in wining those games. When does the luck run out or are they that clutch when they absolutely need a score? I don’t think the Panthers can pull off another road upset especially given the off the field issues that followed came after a press conference this week that caused a lot of negative buzz. Take the Lions to cover in the win and in the under (possibly in the 4th quarter?), 20-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts, 1p (Colts -1.5, O/U: 44.5)

This matchup was initially billed as a snoozer but then Jacoby Brissett has taken over the reigns in Lucks absence and has really looked good. They’ve had a tough schedule early without Luck and played most of the teams tough but have had their fair share of turnovers that turned into points. The 49ers also have had a tough schedule to start the season, Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals and they’ve lost the last 3 games by a field goal. The 49ers defense has hung tough, even on then road. The Colts can run with the better teams if they don’t turn the ball over and have a shot at wins against the bottom 3rd of the league. This was a toughy but I am going to take the 49ers to win and in the over, 27-24.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, 1p (Dolphins +2.5, O/U: 43)

Mariota will be out with Matt Cassel filling in. The Dolphins who looked to have fell into a miracle with Cutler coming out of retirement and playing for Adam Gase again, winning their first game, Cutler smiling. Since, they’ve looked miserable on offense with Ajayi virtually pulling a disappearing act on the stat sheet. What did it in for me was Cutler on a noticeable run play, Cutler spread wide out to help sell the trick play just stood there, nonchalantly, uninterested in the play. I guess we’re back to the old Cutler. The Titans however still have a really good 1-2 punch in the backfield with Murray and Henry. That will be the key to the game for the Titans, run early and often, and control the clock, keeping the rock out of Ajayi’s hands. Take the Titans to win and cover in the under, 20-10.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants, 1p (Giants -1.5, O/U: 47.5)

The Chargers haven’t looked good at home and actually have shown to not really have a fan base, even seeing other teams fan bases show up more than their own. The Chargers have been in all of their games this year and that is a continuation of the last year. They are another team, like the 49ers, who have had 3 of their 4 losses end with a difference of 3 or less points. Three of their 4 games have been at home so I think the road game across country may give them a change of scenery and spark this team in an odd way. The Giants started the first 2 games of the year looking absolutely unwatchable. They had question marks in the backfield and on the offensive line but no one thought it would help generate the product that was shown. In the last few weeks however, we’ve seen a turn around, losing each of the last 2 on the road by a field goal or less. They still have those questions but have played better despite the fact. The Chargers however, have been the better team statistically and both defenses have been keeping their teams in games. I still would take the Chargers to cover the spread, being given 3, to win in the over, 31-24.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -6.5, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams have been exciting to watch, even the Cardinals who have been without their star running back David Johnson. Now, that has meant that Carson Palmer has had to throw more but with their receiving corps, it’s been fluid. The Eagles pass game improved with their offseason additions but the real surprise was the emergence of a solid run game. They lost Sproles for the season but Blount has taken hold of primary back duties with Smallwood complimenting him nicely. This will be a very fun game to watch. The Cardinals need their fans in this time of need, missing Johnson so take the Eagles to cover this one in the over, since it will be a shootout, 35-27.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1p (Steelers -7.5, O/U: 42.5)

The Jags have had a shocking start to the season, at 2-2 but a loss to the Jets in OT may have brought their larger than normal self start back down to Earth. Bortles actually has 7 TD’s to 3 INT’s but lacks in the yardage and seems to have been on a leash to start the year and control his play, especially given the talent they have in the backfield with him, Leonard Fournette. They’ve also had the best defense against the pass, given they’ve also played the Jets, Texans (before Watson started) and the hapless Ravens. The Steelers have also had a good start but given their schedule so far, who knows how good they really are. Bell has had a decent but slower than normal start given he sat out all of the pre-season. The surprise for the Steelers has been their defense, 2nd overall and 2nd against the pass. Big Ben has a 62% completion percentage with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. With this one being at home, take the Steelers to win in the under, 21-10

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05p (Rams -1.5, 47.5)

All of a sudden the Rams have an efficient offense. The arrival of their new young coach, Sean McVay, has given Goff a new start in year 2. The Rams have the 5th best offense overall and pass offense in the league. Their defense needs a boost but they have the talent to turn it around. The Seahawks have been the typical slow start Seahawks but have been turning it on lately with their offense. The only real defense they faced to give them trouble was the 49ers, to which they almost lost to them in mostly a field goal challenge. The Seahawks offensive line will have the microscope on it again, as they allow Wilson to constantly be under duress. The Rams typically give the Seahawks fits and especially in Seattle. I would take the Rams to cover, win and in the under, 27-20.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders, 4:05p (Raiders -3, O/U: 39.5)

The Ravens have looked absolutely horrible this season and the only reason they are 2-0 is because those wins came against similar dumpster fires earlier on in the season, the Bengals and Browns. They got trounced by the Jags in London and the Steelers just last week. Their offense is near last in the league and their defense is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Now the Raiders started hot but the last 2 games have been a struggle but against 2 solid defenses (Redskins/Broncos). They also lost their leader, Derek Carr, to a back injury for 2-6 weeks. EJ Manuel is a capable backup and can get some wins in the next few weeks but it’ll take his best, starting with a good potential confidence booster in this matchup. This should be an easy cover at home, take the Raiders to cover in the under, 20-14.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -3, O/U: 45)

These 2 teams always seem to give a show. Green Bay has been red hot despite lacking a real running game, to which they are 28th in the league. The real shocker has been their defense which has been 6th in the league. This team has basically lived and died by the arm of Rodgers who is off to a great start, averaging 286 yards/game and a rating just over 100. Dallas’s motivation for this game is to avenge the bad loss to the Rams at home last week. This team all around has been a middle of the pack team all around. They really don’t have a deep threat and opposing defenses can keep the play within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage which bodes not so good for Dak. Zeke has had successful games against Green Bay (2 games totaling 282 yards), so expect him to have a solid game. This will be an amazing game to watch with the Cowboys wanting payback for last years heartbreaking playoff loss. Green Bay needs this win as a landmark win, to help their critics R-E-L-A-X. Take the Packers to cover and win in the over on the road, 34-29.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, 8:30p (Texans +1, O/U: 45)

A lot of people are giving Houston a real shot at winning this game and it’s because of the play of Rookie, Deshaun Watson. The Texans haven’t had a great passing game but it’s been effective. Not only can he pass but he’s rushed for nearly 150 yards on 19 carries (7.79 yards per rush average). He looks to be the real deal for them which could make them more dangerous as the season goes on. Watt and Clowney will have to watch their rush, how deep into the pocket they go on Smith since Smith is a mobile quarterback. What can you say about the Chiefs that will convince you not to take them? Absolutely nothing. You’re talking about the 2nd best offense and 1st rushing offense in the league. Alex Smith has been on a tear, 8/0 TD/INT ratio along with Kareem Hunts record setting 502 yards on 68 carries (7.38 yards/carry) and 4 TD’s. Their defense hasn’t been terribly great but that can be attributed to facing strong offenses early, not to mention, the offense has been on fire! Despite the calls for an upset, I’m taking the Chiefs to get to 5-0 by covering in the over, 31-27.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

Carolina @ Detroit (-3)

LA Chargers (+3.5) @ NY Giants

Seattle @ LA Rams (-2.5)

Green Bay @ Dallas (-2)

Kansas City @ Houston (+1)

Week 5: Thursday Night Football

We are back! What a week (phew)! We ended up 56% against the spread and 63% with the over/unders, not too bad, especially with the previous week I had. The Chiefs stayed undefeated in a hard fought game against the Redskins on Monday night, a game that was wildly entertaining. Alright, back on track. Lets keep the ship straightened out now. On to tonight’s game.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:25p (Patriots -5.5, O/U: 55.5)

This game is going to be a tough one because the wildcard for the Buccs will be if Doug Martin will explode out of the block right away or if they’ll slowly ramp up his carries over the next few weeks. The Patriots wildcard will be their defense. The Patriots have one of, if not, the worst defense in the league.

Tom Brady is the one consistent factor of this team. As long as he’s in the lineup, you basically know what you’re getting on offense and he can take a game away from you in the last 4 minutes of the game. Their defensive secondary has some real issues, and Bill Belichick takes pride in turning out the best effort from those guys but Winston can throw and has weapons. I fear they might be too thin and lack too much skill there to stop him.

Jameis Winston has his moments but his poor decision making (at times) could make the Patriots defense look half decent tonight. He likes to try and force balls into tight coverages and when scrambling for his life, can just throw one up to avoid a sack and loss of major yards. With Martin back, I can imagine that he a Jacquizz Rodgers will share touches, at least until one shows they’re having a breakout game. Watch out for Gerald McCoy pushing up the middle on defense.

This is going to be an exciting Thursday Night game with a half decent matchup. Listen, that was an embarrassing loss last week at home against a struggling Cam Newton and the Patriots have started 2-2 before but they also didn’t have the bad defense then like they do now. Expect the Buccs to keep it close. Yes I know, the Patriots don’t lose 2 in a row, that’s why I’m not saying the Pats are going to lose on the road. I am going to tell you to take the Buccs to cover the +5.5 spread with the Patriots winning in the over, 31-27.

Week 4: Monday Night Football & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, yesterday was significantly better than last week however, have you see some of the teams that won? Big road upsets like the Bills over the Falcons, Rams over Cowboys and Panthers over the Patriots. Other upsets included Texans over the Titans and Jets over Jags. A crazy day for sure which we escaped with an 8-7 record against the spread and a fantastic 10-5 record with the over/under. Once again, Uncle Colin knows best.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 improved to 14-5 (74%) after going 3-1 in yesterday’s games with tonight being the 5th. He’s stated himself that this is the best start ever to his Blazing 5 in it’s 10 year history and might I remind you, he’s hit 70% before (2012-2013) season. He’s onto something here.

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30p (Chiefs -7, O/U: 49.5)

Welcome back to one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. It’s also home of the only remaining undefeated team, the Chiefs. They have THE hottest young player in the league with Hunt playing out of his mind in the first 3 weeks. Fans have to be a little worried of his usage after seeing another sensational rookie running back go down with a torn ACL injury (Dalvin Cook). Smith is seeing a career year unfold right before his eyes and I’m not sure, outside of Kansas City, who might’ve seen this coming given a top receiver in Jeremy Maclin bolting for Baltimore.

The Redskins are still looking like a formidable team to compete for a playoff spot and that will be mostly due to their defense and the (so far) consistent Kirk Cousins with his 3 back committee behind him. Chris Thompson has come away as the main weapon for Cousins as he leads the team in rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, yards and touchdowns.

This will be close early but once the 2nd half comes, the experience in coaching will come out with Andy Reid. Alex Smith has truly found where he was supposed to be his entire career and he’ll show it again tonight. Take the Chiefs to win and cover in the over, 36-24.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5, Colin’s pick in bold:

Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Week 4: Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, we opened up with a great win. Boy did that game look ugly for the Bears. They had the game plan I talked about in the last post however, couldn’t stick to it. Not because the game strayed away from it but because they couldn’t hold onto the football early on. Lots of early turnovers and giving the ball to Aaron Rodgers instead of keeping it from hi, put them in an early hole that they never could escape. I always feel hesitation when swallowing a touchdown but I couldn’t pass there and now we have a few Sunday to choose from. There’s work to do for my comeback off of a really bad week. This week I’m going to pick just a handful of games to write about and then just give you my picks for the rest. Lets get to it.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (L), 9:30a (Dolphins +3, O/U: 50.5)

This one scares me only because teams that play in London one week, have the next week off. I wonder how much of a distraction Adrian Peterson is in the locker room, calling for some more touches. Take the Dolphins in the under, 27-21.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -8, O/U: 48.5)

Bills looked good last week at home against one of the best defenses in the league but the Falcons are monsters at home. I don’t like swallowing a touchdown or more but you need to have an amazing offense to cover, which the Falcons have. Take the Falcons to win in the Over, 38-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens +3, O/U: 42.5)

This game will surely disappoint on offense but if you’re a defense kind of game. As long as you’re a defense guy, this is a heckuva matchup. Ravens are more consistent at home, and the Steelers unravel away from Heinz Stadium. Some outlier stats is that the Steelers are 0-4-1 against the spread with the Ravens with the underdog being 4-0-1 in those same meetings. Take the Ravens in the under, 17-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 41.5)

Bengals and Browns. Probably the worst matchup of the season. Bengals FINALLY scored some touchdowns last week! I think the Bengals pull this one out in front of the dog pack. Bengals in the under, 20-14.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, 1p (Cowboys -6.5, O/U: 48.5)

This line started around -9.5 and -10 in some areas, went to -6 and now at -6.5. That tells me that Vegas, doesn’t know if they can truly trust a Rams line. Cowboys are tough at home and will more than likely win this game but it’ll be closer given that the Rams have a new coaching staff that has this offense clicking. The defense has always been solid but never had a complimentary offense. The Rams will break that unreal Cowboys offensive line here and there but Dak is too good when escaping the pocket. This is a favorite by nearly a touchdown that I just can’t pull the trigger on. Take the Rams in the under but the Cowboys to win, 24-21.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans +2.5, O/U: 43.5)

Titans even on the road will roll on the Texans. Watson may shine a bit but the Titans are sneaky good this year on both sides of the ball. Take the Titans in the over, 27-17.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

Another NFC North matchup this week. Once again, no Sam Bradford but we all have seen how capable this team is with or without him. The Vikings have some really solid weapons other than Diggs. The Lions are coming off of a heartbreaking loss due to a replay basically taking away a touchdown. The bets are swinging around 54% Lions -46% Vikings. That is too close to touch for most bettors but if your feeling lucky, listen up. Take the Lions in the over, 31-27.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -9, O/U: 49.5)

I want to give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt, that they’ll keep it close and respectable but I can’t. Again, another touchdown, plus spread that the favorite will cover given the lack of available weapons and a declining Cam Newton. Take the Patriots to win in the under, 34-13.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +3, O/U: 38.5)

The Jets defense has awoken. I know what you’re gonna say, “but Jacksonville looked so good last week in London and blew out the Ravens”. Well, again, I go back to how things used to be. There’s more London games this year and thus has resulted in you not getting the next week off if you play there. In turn, it’s basically a short week for the team with all of that travel. Take the Jets as home dogs to win it in the over, 21-20.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Another big spread for the week and again one that I think gets covered by the home team. Typically if a team plays Thursday night the week before and Sunday the next week, I like taking them with the extra few days of preparation. Those extra days aren’t going to help the 49ers who last week gave up a ton of yards and points to the Rams. Now they eventually came back with a valiant effort but ultimately, still lost. The 49ers were given a +3 spread last week at home, this week +6.5. Only a 3.5 point difference and that is basically a 3 point swing for being away now. So to me, that’s saying that the Cardinals are viewed as .5 point favorites over the Rams. I don’t buy that yet. Larry Fitzgerald will have another solid matchup this week given how bad the 49ers secondary is. Take the Cardinals in the under, 31-10.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -2.5, O/U: 47.5)

LeGarrette Blount had himself a game last week. Look for him to bust loose again with Sproles out for the season with the multitude of injuries sustained in last weeks game (knee/wrist). Smallwood will be peppered in there as a change of pace back and Wentz will be told to launch the big chunk yardage plays when he can. The Chargers are 0-3 this year and playing their home games in a soccer field. There’s even talks about if the Chargers should stay or go back to San Diego. Even with their defensive front, I think this team has already lost the edge. Take the Eagles to win in the over, 35-17.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05p (Buccaneers -3, O/U: 44.5)

Gosh, where do I begin? Winston can’t keep himself from making poor decisions with the ball through the air, even with the weapons he has. The Giants looked a bit better last week with OBJ back and healthy last week. They are still struggling with their ground game but making it work with 4 different guys. The Buccs also banged up on defense, especially their front. Take the Giants to win in the over, 26-20.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -3, O/U:46)

Rivalry game with a really good and young offense going to the house of a really good, veteran defense that have won a super bowl recently. The Broncos, while not having a household name at quarterback, have been consistently gaining yards and scoring, complementing their defense well. The Raiders defense, especially through the air, has been atrocious. Take the Broncos to win in the under, 24-17.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks -13, O/U: 41.5)

This line I have no clue how it blew up to 13. I mean, it even grew a .5 point since the line opened. The Seahawks offense, even at home, has been absolutely terrible. They only scored 12 points at home against the 49ers a few weeks ago. What is the logic behind this line? Brissett is a capable quarterback and proved it last week with the start and win at home over the Browns. This game is looking juicy for a Colts bet. Take the Seahawks to win but the Colts to keep it close in the under, Colts 17-10.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 on the year is an amazing 11-4 to start 2017, here’s his picks for the week:

Giants (+3) @ Buccs

Steelers @ Ravens (+3)

Rams (+8) @ Cowboys

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)

Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

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