Tag: Against the Spread

NFL Week 1 Recap with Splits

It was a crazy first week with some fairly predictable outcomes and some shockers.  To make it clear, these are based on my predictions.  We’ll quickly run through them both.

Predictable:

  1. A healthy Aaron Rodgers beats the Bears and the so-so Trubisky.
  2. Vikings defense tough at home.
  3. Bills going into MetLife and stealing one with Singletary looking good!
  4. Chiefs blowing out the Jags on only being a -3.5 favorite.  How this wasn’t everyone’s “lock of the week” I’ll never understand.
  5. Andrew Luck-less Colts covering on a big spread for a Chargers team that barely has a home fan base.  Always feels like a neutral field.
  6. Texans covering but the Saints breaking a 5 year opening game winless draught, however, I was sweating bullets with less than 3 to go, what an ending to that game!
  7. Finally, “The Raiders” (in my Boomer Raiders voice), wining outright at home.  The AB drama left, the fans made that known with “F*** AB” chants throughout the game.  Josh Jacobs looked awesome in his debut.  Watch out for the Raiders this year.

Shocking:

  1. The low scoring affair between the Packers and Bears.
  2. The Dolphins looking like they got caught in a Whalers net.  DOA to the stadium.
  3. Foles breaking his clavicle in his first half of football with the Jags (on a TD pass of course).
  4.  Browns disappointing home opener after all the preseason hype.
  5. Eagles allowing a TD in the last minute of the game to ruin this bet……thanks….
  6. Bengals kept the pace with the Seahawks in Seattle.
  7. Arizona clawing back into that game in the 4th.  The first 3 quarters was how I saw that whole game going when writing my prediction.  This game also robbed me of a win on the predictions…..grrr….Could’ve been a stellar week at 11-5 if not for the last minute of this and the Eagles game…but that is NFL betting for you.
  8. Steelers flopping in New England & New England coming out guns blazing after their last few season openers being fairly close games.
  9. Texans rushing game with Hyde and Johnson combining for 19 carries for 140 yards (7.4 yards per carry).
  10. The ending to that Texans/Saints game….I haven’t picked my jaw up yet, wow!  Fun game!

Week 1 is now in the books, hit your waiver wire to get rid of the scrubs that looked like garbage for your fantasy team.  9-7 (56%) is a pretty good start for week one.  56% is where we want the baseline but always are looking to finish as high above that mark as possible.  Look for my NFL Week 2: Thursday Night Football prediction Thursday afternoon/early evening.  Check out week 1’s results and the splits on my picks below to see where you might take my advise or not going forward.

NFL Week 1 Results.png

NFL Week 1 Results Splits.jpg

NFL Week 1: Monday Night Football

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 7:10 PM, ESPN (Saints -6.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Texans made some moves this offseason to help Lamar Miller and the rushing game and it proved necessary as Miller is lost this season before the preseason ended to a knee injury. They traded for Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, who are a good enough tandum to be effective enough. They also valued Watson’s blindside (Tunsil) more than a second elite pass rusher (Clowney). The Saints had back to back disappointing losses in the playoffs to end their season, last year on a brutal non call PI. Not a bunch changed on their roster but with Murray replacing Ingram and Cook coming in for a hole at TE coming off of a great year with Oakland should keep their offense on track. Saints end a 5 year opening week winless drought by winning but take the Texans to cover in the over, Saints 31-27.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, 10:20 PM, ESPN (Raiders +3, O/U: 42.5)

The Broncos have been waiting for years and finally, they have someone to lead their offense in Flacco. Philip Lindsay is back 100% from his broken wrist in the last game of last year, building off an amazing performance as an undrafted rookie. Flacco will have two great young receivers in Sutton and Hamilton to throw to as well as veteran Sanders. The defense pretty much stayed the same, should continue to dominate. The Raiders were mired by the AB drama between the frostbitten feet, helmet issues and GM/fines/contract issues, they still showed on HBO’S “Hard Knocks” that they had still worked hard despite all of that and played fairly well fitting their pre season games. Impressive undrafted rookie Kellan Doss comes back from his week on the Jaguars practice squad to sign a decent deal to be on the 52 man roster to fill in for AB’s spot. He will see plenty of targets after his impressive pre season. Josh Jacobs was drafted to be the feature back for the offense and from what he showed in his limited carries in the pre season, we’re in for a treat. I may be a bit high on them but take the Raiders to cover in the upset win in the under, Raiders 21-20.

Week 15: Monday Night Football

New Orleans vs Carolina, 8:15p, ESPN (Panthers +6, O/U: 50.5)

The Saints ran into a scare last week against the Buccs until they had to rattle off 25 unanswered points to pull out a win. While they barely covered the spread, questions remain as to if they can keep up their play on the road, such has been much better than in years past? Michael Thomas has 298 catches in his first 3 years with its an NFL record (102 so far this year) and he’ll continue to be the main target tonight. The defense wo have their hands full with Cam and McCaffrey even as the top team against the run (mostly due to jumping on teams early, forcing more passing).

Cam comes into this game with a sore shoulder. Whether that affects him trying to find DJ Moore down the field or not will be seen early on. As for McCaffrey, he’s got nearly 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs. It’ll be intersting to see how the linebackers trying to matchup up with the speedy backs.

Saints on the road: 6-1 (31 pts for/game & 20 pts allowed/game)

Saints ATS on the road: 6-1

Panthers at home: 5-1 (31 pts for/game & 23 pts allowed/game)

Panthers ATS on the road: 4-2

Take the Panthers to cover in the loss in the over, Saints 34-30.

#beatyourbookie

Week 14: Monday Night Football

Minnesota vs Seattle (Seahawks -3, O/U: 46)

The Vikings have been seesawing the last handful of weeks winning, losing, winning, losing. They have had success when they’ve had a pass rush and more importantly failures when they couldn’t get to the quarterback. They also haven’t been able to stay up with top competitive teams in the league like the Bears, Patriots and Saints. Don’t let that win in Green Bay fool you, it’s a great win in Lambeau but against a defense that isn’t great and an offense lacking punch.

The Seahawks have been on fire with a 3 game winning streak despite having lost to the Rams twice, Chargers and Bears. The two differences are they were closer games and they’ve won the “easier” games. Another difference is the play calling. The Seahawks run the ball more as Wilson averages less than 250 yards per game but in his last 4 games he has 11 TDs to 0 picks. Their defense has quietly been climbing the ladder to bring a top 10 defense as well, allowing the league’s 9th best in scoring (21.6 points).

Take the Seahawks to cover in the over, Seahawks 28-24.

Week 13: Thursday Night Football

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:20p, NFLN (Cowboys +8, O/U: 52.5)

New Orleans comes in with the league’s best offense, averaging 37.2 points per game. They’ve also only turned the ball over 9 times, tied for the league lead. Michael Thomas has 86 catches already and Kamara has been hot all year, especially the last 6 games where he has 9 touchdowns! The Saints also lead the league in rushing defense which is more than likely from teams being forced to throw more given how quick the Saints go up early in games, which has caused the pass defense to be 30th worst in the league. The rush defense will be tested tonight.

The Cowboys have really turned it up lately since Amari Cooper has come aboard eventhough he’s really only been involved in the offense starting last week on Thanksgiving with an 8 catch, 180 yards and 2 touchdown performance, looking like the first rounder he was supposed to be. Garrett will have to strategize against the Saints and do his best to keep the Saints high powered offense off the field. That means utilizing the league’s leading rusher, Zeke (1,074 rushing yards). But when the ‘Boys defense is on the field, they’ll need Lawrence to continue his wrath of the last 4 games where he’s snagged 3 of his 8.5 sacks on the season. Question is, can the Cowboys newly found 3 headed monster keep up with the Medusa (multiple weapons) offensive threat of the Saints?

Take the Saints to cover on the road in the over, Saints 36-24.

#beatyourbookie

Week 11: Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20p, ESPN (Rams -3, O/U: 64)

This game has been circled by all fans since week 4 when these two teams have been on fire, turning out tons of points each week. No it’s not in Mexico City thanks to a rump shaking Shakira concert. If you think that will slow up the guys, think twice. The Chiefs were spending time in Denver to get their bodies used to the similar altitude that Mexico City would’ve had.

Mahomes and Goff have nearly identical numbers other than touchdowns (Mahomes 31, Goff 22) and the Chiefs have scored the most points each game on average, in the NFL. Similarly, the Rams have out paced “The Greatest Show in Turf” in most offensive categories this season. They will be without stud Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL from last week but don’t think it’ll hinder Goff too much.

This is going to be like a Madden game on easy. I’m predicting massive scoring, mostly through the air. The Rams pass rush will have their hands full chasing around Mahomes. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over (that’s right, I said over 64 points), Chiefs 42-36.

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Sunday Games

Arizona at Kansas City, 1:00p, FOX (Chiefs -15.5, O/U: 50)

These games are always tough to put money on but the Chiefs have beaten better teams by two touchdowns. The issue with the Cardinals is their offense and the lack of points being scored. Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 38-18.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets, 1:00p, CBS (Jets -7.5, O/U: 38)

This game isn’t going to be pretty with McCown in for an injured Darnold and Allen coming back from his concussion. Allen gives the Bills the best chance to win obviously because he has been the jack of all trades given he led his team in rushing up until his injury. Take the Bills to cover and win in the under, Bills 17-14.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00p, CBS (Colts -3, O/U: 48)

Reports out of Jacksonville state that the locker room is pissed off and will play as such being on a four game slide. Fournette is scheduled to make his return this week. Luck has been on fire this season and his much much much improved offensive line hasn’t allowed him to be sacked in the last 3 weeks. That truly gives us a sense as to what Luck can do with time in the pocket even without big name receivers. This is one of the games of the week to watch. Take the Colts to cover in the under, Colts 24-20.

New England at Tennessee, 1:00p, CBS (Titans +7, O/U: 47.5)

It’s a big spread on the road to cover. If at home, this spread would say that the Patriots would be favored by 13. I had a hard time with this given how inconsistent the Titans have been this year. Other things to consider, Gronk is out for Brady and the Titans have been tough against the run. It’s hard to go against Brady/Belichick so don’t, take the Patriots to cover in the under, Patriots 24-14.

New Orleans at Cincinnati, 1:00p, FOX (Bengals +6, O/U: 54)

The Saints are coming off of a big time win last week at home that saw them start off HOT but completely cool off in the 2nd half but still held off the high powered Rams offense. The Bengals line many good, not great, teams play so much better at home in front of their fans. Andy Dalton had played well this year but can fall under the spell of the turnover bug but rarely does so at home. No Green to throw to will limit this offense. I think the line is fare. Take the Saints to cover in the win in the over, Saints 31-24.

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00p, FOX (Buccs -3, O/U: 51)

Fitzmagic is back and looked about as good as he did before Winston came off suspension. The defense still had trouble stopping teams and the Redskins have looked good with the resurrection of AP in the backfield and field general Alex Smith moving the offense. The Redskins pass rush has looked good in recent weeks and will continue that trend this week. Take the Redskins to cover in the under, Redskins 24-21.

Atlanta at Cleveland, 1:00p, FOX (Browns +6, O/U: 51)

The Browns are in disarray even though they’re scoring, their defense isn’t playing to the caliber they’re used to and they are now facing their third high powered offense in 3 weeks. Julio Jones is finally on the score sheet which will give him more motivation to get in again today. Take the Falcons to cover in the over, Falcons 35-24.

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00p, FOX (Bears -7.5, O/U: 44)

The Lions looked atrocious on offense last week, allowing Stafford to get sacked 10 times! The Lions will be missing key defensive players. Mack will be back so look for more of the same view from the turf for Stafford. Take the Bears to cover in the under, Bears 24-17.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland, 4:05p, FOX (Raiders +10, O/U: 50)

I feel like I say this 8 times a year but again, the Chargers are a better team on the road. The Raiders are also another team in turmoil and their offense is LACKING. Take the Chargers to easily cover in the under, Chargers 31-17.

Miami at Green Bay, 4:25p, CBS (Packers -10.5, O/U: 48.5)

I understand that Osweiler has played well in his 4 starts but they’re going to the frozen tundra. Rodgers will have Valdez-Scantling getting more snaps in Allison’s absence, who had shown in previous games that he is a rookie that can offer big play ability along with Cobb and Adams. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 34-17.

Seattle at L.A. Rams, 4:25p, CBS (Rams -9, O/U: 51)

The Rams haven’t covered in the last few weeks and are coming off a huge game against the Saints on the road. They’ve also dealt with less practice time due to taking Friday off to help family and friends evacuate their homes due to the fires. Russell Wilson rarely loses by over a touchdown and they’ve played inspired football lately. Take the Rams to win an emotional game by the Seahawks to cover in the loss, in the under, Rams 27-21.

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles -7.5, O/U: 44)

This will be another sloppy game by Dallas. They don’t have the weapons to give Dak many options. The Eagles added Golden Tate to the corps of receivers for Wentz to help make up for the lack of power in the backfield. Take the Eagles to cover big in the over, Eagles 27-14.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin 5:

  • New Orleans at Cincinnati – Cincinnati (+5.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-3)
  • New England at Tennessee – New England (-6.5)
  • Seattle at LA Rams – Seattle (+10)
  • Dallas at Philadelphia – Philadelphia (-6.5)

#beatyourbookie

Week 10: Thursday Night Football

Carolina at Pittsburgh, 8:20p, NFLN (Steelers -3.5, O/U: 51.5)

Finally, we get a game on Thursday worthy of most football fans’ time.

The Panthers have enjoyed the last couple of games with Eric Reid on board to help the defense as the offense keeps rolling at home.  On the road, it’s a little bit of a different story where Cam stays the same but the offense doesn’t score as much.  History points to the Panthers as being a weak road team and even though they’ve lost 2 of 3 on the road (their only 2 losses), they were within 7 points in both games.  In fact, Cam has been stellar as far as his completion percentage and passer rating.  Cam is certainly having a career year but not only is Cam playing well, Christian McCaffrey is having a fantastic sophomore season in the NFL as well.

The Steelers have enjoyed a 4 game winning streak that started after a week 4 loss at home to division foe, Ravens.  That loss put them 0-2 at home and 1-2-1 overall with the season in peril, uncertainty with the Bell situation, turmoil in the organization with AB until they met the high flying Falcons at home the next week.  They haven’t looked back since.  Yes Big Ben has thrown 7 picks but also has 16 touchdowns, Conner slightly outperforming Bell from last year with the same amount of starts and Brown might not have a ton of yards or a great average per catch but has 9 touchdowns.  The defense has been in lockdown mode the last 4 weeks.

With the defense in lockdown mode, take the Steelers to cover in the over, Steelers 31-27.

#beatyourbookie

Week 5: Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis vs New England, 8:20p, NFLN, (Patriots -10.5, O/U: 50)

It’s the battle of the twelves.  Andrew Luck back at it and revitalizing the Colts/Patriots rivalry that once included former Colts great Peyton Manning.

Both leaders will more than likely be without their top receivers (Hilton, Gronkowski) but Brady still would have Chris Hogan, Eric Ebron and newcomer Josh Gordon.  The running games for both have been coming along with both introducing rookies into thei backfields, leading their rushing attacks with Hines/Wilkins for the Colts and Michel for the Pats.

The Colts defense has looked improved compared to their most recent seasons and actually are near the pace the Patriots have set themselves this season.  The difference maker will be if the Patriots line can stop the defensive front of the Colts since Brady has an obvious lack of mobility.  This will be close early but once Brady gets dialed in, expect him to slowly pull away from the not quite 100% Andrew Luck.

There has been a huge uprising in the league this year where games you thought were a lock were turned upside down in the first few minutes.  Just when you thought, “ok, maybe this one isn’t such a slam dunk given how hard it’s been to nail bets this year”, not so fast my friend, just a friendly reminder, it’s HARD to win in Gillette Stadium.  Take the Patriots to cover in the win and in the under, Patriots 28-17.

#beatyourbookie

Week 4: Thursday Night Football

Minnesota at L.A. Rams, 8:20p, NFLN (Rams -7, O/U: 49.5)

This past Sunday, The Vikes got absolutely embarrassed at home by rookie Josh Allen. I mean, he literally leapt over their best linebacker with ease. The Bills took the opening kickoff and then drove the field 75 yards to a touchdown. Kirk Cousins didn’t help his teams cause or confidence by having 2 sacks fumbles that lead to 10 more points and a Bills 17-0 lead after the first. A good team being embarrassed one week basically means that they get revenge the next however it will be very tough to do so when going on the road against one of the best defenses and one of the best offenses in the league.

The Rams are on fire this year, picking up right where they left off from last year. Granted, they started off with a few softballs with the Raiders and Cardinals but had a bit of a test against a team that’s been a better road team than a home team, in the Chargers. The Rams ultimately beat them and covered the spread. Goff and his numerous weapons have gelled well with McVay’s playbook and they don’t seem to show any signs of slowing down, averaging 34 points/game on offense and only 12/game on defense.

Short week, big spread to cover but the Bills defense isn’t nearly as good as the Vikings and you see how they played in Minnesota last week. Expect the Rams to learn from what they saw Sunday and pressure Cousins all night. Take the Rams to cover in the win, in the over, Rams 31-21.