NFL Week 3: Thursday Night Football Prediction & Pick

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TIAA Bank Field, 8:20 PM, NFLN (Jaguars +1.5, O/U: 38.5)

The Titans have been a bit unpredictable to start the season with clubbing the Browns and bursting their hype bubble in their own home to coming back home and falling to the Andrew Luck-less Colts. Mariota has been careful with the ball throwing zero picks but just barely cracked the 400 yard mark.  The workhorse has been Derrick Henry averaging just under 5 yards per carry and found the end zone 3 times (2 rushing TD’s, 1 receiving TD’s).  The defense has played well, holding opponents to being 8/24 on 3rd downs, have only allowed 365 passing yards through the first 2 games, caused 5 turnovers (4 INT’s, 1 fumble recovery)which leads the league in turnover differential (+5) and have only allowed 32 points which is good for 6th least allowed in the league.  Issues I see are that they’re only 3/20 on 3rd down, the o-line has also been sacked 8 times, and have allowed the 7th most yards per game on the ground.

There’s really not much I can say about the Jaguars other than that in most stat categories, they’re middle of the road or leaning towards the bottom 3rd in the league.  Gardner Minshew looked ok in his first NFL regular season action and has completed a fantastic 77.6% of his passes with 3 TD’s and a INT.  He’s also able to make up for the lack of rushing attack from once highly touted Fournette, with 7 carries for 62 yards and actually has a team long 21 yard carry.  DJ Chark (11-201-2TD’s) and Chris Conley (10-170-1TD) have been the teams leading receivers.  Big issues I see with the Jags are having a mediocre offense now being lead by a rookie, tied for the 3rd worst turnover differential (-3).

Take the Titans to cover in the win and in the under, Titans 21-13.

NFL Week 2 Recap with Splits

Week 2 seemed to have a theme in many games, INJURY!  I swear, in the picks I felt pretty good and sure about that were going to be “WOW” picks, key injuries mostly hurt my week.  Us fans even lose out on some big names, mostly at quarterbacks for weeks, months or even the whole season.  A flat week but not a losing week at 8-8 but lets break it down.  Here’s where I was right:

  • The Bills defense looks good and their young running back looks legit.  Josh Allen is the real deal and we could see the Bills vying for a wildcard spot at seasons end.
  • Brissett can lead this team.  Road games in back to back weeks to kick off their season right after Andrew Luck peaces out right before the end of the pre-season, and they take the Chargers to OT in LA and upset the Titans in their house to start 1-1 but 2-0 against the spread.
  • Green Bay’s defense and run game look alive.  Aaron is still working out the kinks in the new offense but hey, Packers are 2-0.
  • Patriots running up the score on wounded divisional animals, is nothing new.  They also love beating dead ones over and over which the Dolphins are, dead.
  • I can sit here and say I was right about the Rams -2 at home, which I was, but that game started off A LOT closer that I imagined.  Another blown call against the Saints didn’t help, as it took a score off the board for them.  Brees out early in this one helped as well.
  • Chargers are the best road team over the last few years but missing key guys that helped them win all of those road games in the past few years now hurts their chances at continuing that trend.
  • I’m not going to lie, flipped a coin on the Bears.  I didn’t like Colin Cowherd’s pick on this game and it almost bit me.  I hate to put my trust in Trubisky, especially given the Broncos defense and even after reading my write up on this game, it sounded like I was going to lean Broncos.  I’m just also not a Flacco fan.  Got lucky.

Now, Where I was wrong:

  • Cam is not looking good at all and maybe his shoulder is still bothering him but he looked awful and Winston outplayed him, which is sad.
  • The Ravens weren’t as explosive against the Cardinals.  They should be exciting all season to watch and I feel like this was just a fluke game against a below average team.
  • Texans barely made it past Gardner Minshew even with the high powered offense lead by Watson.  Watson was ducking sackers all game long and it seems much of the same as last year.  That line is bad for Watson and he might get hurt again because of it.
  • In a pick’em and after they nearly beat a good Seahawks team in Seattle, I thought the Bengals could at least beat a 49ers team that doesn’t have a good back or a decent/proven receiver for Jimmy G other than Kittle.  I was dead wrong and dead wrong by a lot!
  • Well, the injury bug put me behind the 8 ball in this one and as soon as Big Ben came out, I figured this one was all but done however, Mason Rudolph kept them in it, shockingly.  With Big Ben, I think this would’ve been a cover for me.
  • If you looked at this matchup and told me that the Raiders would hold the Chiefs scoreless in 3 quarters, I would’ve called you crazy.  Turns out, they only need one to blow the doors off the game but give credit to the Raiders for not letting this get ugly.  Take out the huge chunk plays/TD’s and you’ll see that this was a well fought game by the Black Hole.
  • Did I mention the injury bug already?  Yeah, that was evident in the Eagles game during warm ups when Goddert went down with a foot injury, then lost both Jeffery and Jackson in the 1st quarter, for the rest of the game.  Still, Wentz nearly brought this one to the win column for me on the final drive but it wasn’t meant to be.
  • Not many times will I expect a backup to still lead a team to cover a game but it was against the Browns.  Losing Siemian halfway through the 2nd quarter didn’t help (there’s that damn injury bug again), but Falk looked good.  It kick started the running game as they handed off to Bell the next 5 plays.  Falk couldn’t move the ball down the field however, only averaging 3.9 yards passing through the air before the catch is made, meaning lots and lots of short check down, dink and dunk passes.

We slipped this week to 8-8 but we’ll bounce back.  Check out the results and splits below.

NFL Week 2 Results

NFL Week 2 Results Splits