Tag: PATRIOTS

Week 9 Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well Thursday night was an embarrassment.  Who thought the Bills could come out so flat on both sides of the ball?  My Thursday’s haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve still turned them into winning weeks.  I don’t want to talk about Thursday anymore, on to Sunday’s games:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1p (Panthers +2.5, O/U: 42)

Panthers just gave away their top receiver, their next best receiver is still on IR, don’t expect the Panthers to do much to rest of the season.  Panthers lack of offense will keep their defense out on the field too much.  Take the Falcons cover in the over, 27-17.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans -7, O/U: 45.5)

Texans gave away their top tackle this past week, an majorly unfortunate ACL injury to Watson ends his season and their still a 7 point favorite?  Did anyone see how Tom Savage did in that first game?  Take the Colts to cover and win in the under, Colts 24-21.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p (Jaguars -6, O/U: 38.5)

Jaguars have a real shot at winning this game.  As long as they keep from turning the ball over.  The Bengals really need a win this game to have some momentum leading in to the second half of the season.  I still just don’t trust the Jaguars and their basically one dimensional running game.  Take the Bengals to win in the under, Bengals 17-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1p (Saints -7, O/U: 52.5)

Saints look like they are back to their old selves and actually have a solid running game between Ingram and Kamara.  Take the Saints to cover in the over, Saints 34-20.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1p (Giants +4.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Rams to cover in the over, Rams 27-17.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p (Eagles -7, O/U: 41.5)

Take the Eagles to cover in the under, Eagles 27-14.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1p (Titans -3.5, O/U: 42)

Take the Titans to cover in the under, Titans 20-14.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05p (49ers +2.5, O/U: 39.5)

Take the Cardinals to cover in the under, Cardinals 17-14.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p (Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 45)

Take the Seahawks to win but the Redskins to cover in the over, Seahawks 31-24.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25p (Cowboys -2.5, O/U: 53.5)

Take the Chiefs to cover in the over, Chiefs 31-30.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 8:30p (Dolphins +3, O/U: 44)

Take the Raiders to cover in the under, Raiders 24-17.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Atlanta at Carolina – Atlanta (-1.5)
  • Baltimore at Tennessee – Tennessee (-3.5)
  • LA Rams at NY Giants – LA Rams (-3.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans – New Orleans (-7)
  • Kansas City at Dallas – Kansas City (+2)

 

Week 5: Thursday Night Football

We are back!  What a week (phew)!  We ended up 56% against the spread and 63% with the over/unders, not too bad, especially with the previous week I had.  The Chiefs stayed undefeated in a hard fought game against the Redskins on Monday night, a game that was wildly entertaining.  Alright, back on track.  Lets keep the ship straightened out now.  On to tonight’s game.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:25p (Patriots -5.5, O/U: 55.5)

This game is going to be a tough one because the wildcard for the Buccs will be if Doug Martin will explode out of the block right away or if they’ll slowly ramp up his carries over the next few weeks.  The Patriots wildcard will be their defense.  The Patriots have one of, if not, the worst defense in the league.

Tom Brady is the one consistent factor of this team.  As long as he’s in the lineup, you basically know what you’re getting on offense and he can take a game away from you in the last 4 minutes of the game.  Their defensive secondary has some real issues, and Bill Belichick takes pride in turning out the best effort from those guys but Winston can throw and has weapons.  I fear they might be too thin and lack too much skill there to stop him.

Jameis Winston has his moments but his poor decision making (at times) could make the Patriots defense look half decent tonight.  He likes to try and force balls into tight coverages and when scrambling for his life, can just throw one up to avoid a sack and loss of major yards.  With Martin back, I can imagine that he a Jacquizz Rodgers will share touches, at least until one shows they’re having a breakout game.  Watch out for Gerald McCoy pushing up the middle on defense.

This is going to be an exciting Thursday Night game with a half decent matchup.  Listen, that was an embarrassing loss last week at home against a struggling Cam Newton and the Patriots have started 2-2 before but they also didn’t have the bad defense then like they do now.  Expect the Buccs to keep it close.  Yes I know, the Patriots don’t lose 2 in a row, that’s why I’m not saying the Pats are going to lose on the road.  I am going to tell you to take the Buccs to cover the +5.5 spread with the Patriots winning in the over, 31-27.

Week 4: Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, we opened up with a great win.  Boy did that game look ugly for the Bears.  They had the game plan I talked about in the last post however, couldn’t stick to it.  Not because the game strayed away from it but because they couldn’t hold onto the football early on.  Lots of early turnovers and giving the ball to Aaron Rodgers instead of keeping it from hi, put them in an early hole that they never could escape.  I always feel hesitation when swallowing a touchdown but I couldn’t pass there and now we have a few Sunday to choose from.  There’s work to do for my comeback off of a really bad week.  This week I’m going to pick just a handful of games to write about and then just give you my picks for the rest.  Lets get to it.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (L), 9:30a (Dolphins +3, O/U: 50.5)

This one scares me only because teams that play in London one week, have the next week off.  I wonder how much of a distraction Adrian Peterson is in the locker room, calling for some more touches.  Take the Dolphins in the under, 27-21.

 
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -8, O/U: 48.5)

Bills looked good last week at home against one of the best defenses in the league but the Falcons are monsters at home.  I don’t like swallowing a touchdown or more but you need to have an amazing offense to cover, which the Falcons have.  Take the Falcons to win in the Over, 38-13.

 
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens +3, O/U: 42.5)

This game will surely disappoint on offense but if you’re a defense kind of game.  As long as you’re a defense guy, this is a heckuva matchup. Ravens are more consistent at home, and the Steelers unravel away from Heinz Stadium.  Some outlier stats is that the Steelers are 0-4-1 against the spread with the Ravens with the underdog being 4-0-1 in those same meetings.  Take the Ravens in the under, 17-10.

 
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 41.5)

Bengals and Browns.  Probably the worst matchup of the season.  Bengals FINALLY scored some touchdowns last week!  I think the Bengals pull this one out in front of the dog pack.  Bengals in the under, 20-14.

 
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, 1p (Cowboys -6.5, O/U: 48.5)

This line started around -9.5 and -10 in some areas, went to -6 and now at -6.5.  That tells me that Vegas, doesn’t know if they can truly trust a Rams line.  Cowboys are tough at home and will more than likely win this game but it’ll be closer given that the Rams have a new coaching staff that has this offense clicking.  The defense has always been solid but never had a complimentary offense.  The Rams will break that unreal Cowboys offensive line here and there but Dak is too good when escaping the pocket.  This is a favorite by nearly a touchdown that I just can’t pull the trigger on.  Take the Rams in the under but the Cowboys to win, 24-21.

 
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans +2.5, O/U: 43.5)

Titans even on the road will roll on the Texans.  Watson may shine a bit but the Titans are sneaky good this year on both sides of the ball.  Take the Titans in the over, 27-17.

 
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

Another NFC North matchup this week.  Once again, no Sam Bradford but we all have seen how capable this team is with or without him.  The Vikings have some really solid weapons other than Diggs.  The Lions are coming off of a heartbreaking loss due to a replay basically taking away a touchdown.  The bets are swinging around 54% Lions -46% Vikings.  That is too close to touch for most bettors but if your feeling lucky, listen up.  Take the Lions in the over, 31-27.

 
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -9, O/U: 49.5)

I want to give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt, that they’ll keep it close and respectable but I can’t.  Again, another touchdown, plus spread that the favorite will cover given the lack of available weapons and a declining Cam Newton.  Take the Patriots to win in the under, 34-13.

 
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +3, O/U: 38.5)

The Jets defense has awoken.  I know what you’re gonna say, “but Jacksonville looked so good last week in London and blew out the Ravens”.  Well, again, I go back to how things used to be.  There’s more London games this year and thus has resulted in you not getting the next week off if you play there. In turn, it’s basically a short week for the team with all of that travel.  Take the Jets as home dogs to win it in the over, 21-20.

 
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Another big spread for the week and again one that I think gets covered by the home team.  Typically if a team plays Thursday night the week before and Sunday the next week, I like taking them with the extra few days of preparation.  Those extra days aren’t going to help the 49ers who last week gave up a ton of yards and points to the Rams.  Now they eventually came back with a valiant effort but ultimately, still lost.  The 49ers were given a +3 spread last week at home, this week +6.5.  Only a 3.5 point difference and that is basically a 3 point swing for being away now.  So to me, that’s saying that the Cardinals are viewed as .5 point favorites over the Rams.  I don’t buy that yet.  Larry Fitzgerald will have another solid matchup this week given how bad the 49ers secondary is.  Take the Cardinals in the under, 31-10.

 
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -2.5, O/U: 47.5)

LeGarrette Blount had himself a game last week.  Look for him to bust loose again with Sproles out for the season with the multitude of injuries sustained in last weeks game (knee/wrist).  Smallwood will be peppered in there as a change of pace back and Wentz will be told to launch the big chunk yardage plays when he can.  The Chargers are 0-3 this year and playing their home games in a soccer field.  There’s even talks about if the Chargers should stay or go back to San Diego.  Even with their defensive front, I think this team has already lost the edge.  Take the Eagles to win in the over, 35-17.

 
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05p (Buccaneers -3, O/U: 44.5)

Gosh, where do I begin?  Winston can’t keep himself from making poor decisions with the ball through the air, even with the weapons he has.  The Giants looked a bit better last week with OBJ back and healthy last week.  They are still struggling with their ground game but making it work with 4 different guys.  The Buccs also banged up on defense, especially their front.  Take the Giants to win in the over, 26-20.

 
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -3, O/U:46)

Rivalry game with a really good and young offense going to the house of a really good, veteran defense that have won a super bowl recently.  The Broncos, while not having a household name at quarterback, have been consistently gaining yards and scoring, complementing their defense well.  The Raiders defense, especially through the air, has been atrocious.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 24-17.

 
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks -13, O/U: 41.5)

This line I have no clue how it blew up to 13.  I mean, it even grew a .5 point since the line opened.  The Seahawks offense, even at home, has been absolutely terrible.  They only scored 12 points at home against the 49ers a few weeks ago.  What is the logic behind this line?  Brissett is a capable quarterback and proved it last week with the start and win at home over the Browns.  This game is looking juicy for a Colts bet.  Take the Seahawks to win but the Colts to keep it close in the under, Colts 17-10.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 on the year is an amazing 11-4 to start 2017, here’s his picks for the week:

Giants (+3) @ Buccs
Steelers @ Ravens (+3)
Rams (+8) @ Cowboys
Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)
Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

 

Week 1 Recap: 60%+ Winners Baby!

Week 1 has come and gone with some pretty shocking results and injuries.

The first week of the NFL season for fans is an exciting time, holiday like for most of America.  Take it from me, I’m a huge hockey guy and I don’t get this excited over the NHL’s opening week of the season.  However you celebrated, there is always this massive expectation of upsets, blowouts, and key injuries.

Thursday had all of them rolled into one game.  Cheesy banner hoisting celebration, shocking Vegas point spread of 9, shocking upset from the underdog, key injuries from Danny Amendola’s concussion and Eric Berry’s torn Achilles, and the game was basically a blowout.

Sunday was much of the same, Ravens blowout/shutout the Bengals, Jags shockingly blowout the Texans, Rams took the Colts to the woodshed, and we saw the loss of one of the top 2 best running backs in the game, David Johnson, get a dislocated wrist which will more than likely have him out 2-3 months.

We saw a bunch of rookies take control of their respected positions and make key differences in games, TJ Watt, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Kenny Golladay, Tarik Cohen, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Haason Reddick, and Cooper Kupp.

Wow, what a first week!

Now to my predictions.  I shocked myself.  I pulled out some close ones and some really caught me off guard but to have 61.5% winners ATS and 64.28% winners with the O/U for the first week?  I’ll take that a run with it.  I’m a genius, football psychic, I have the crystal ball of the NFL and baby, I’m just handing out free cash left and right.

The “what if’s”.  I was a late Tarik Cohen TD and a blocked Chargers field goal from having those pushes as winners (66%) and if Forbath doesn’t miss his extra point, my O/U’s would’ve been the same (66%).

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

How did Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 do?  He stated it was the best opening week since he’s been doing it.  He went 4-1 picking the Eagles (-1), Ravens (+3), Lions (+2), and Packers (-3).  Obviously the 49ers (+5.5) were the ones that prevented him from a perfect record to start.

Come back Thursday for the tomorrow nights matchup and prediction.

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Throwdown

Back for the 2015 season. It’s been another long offseason with many news topics that have been discussed and there’s usually one that beats the dead horse and this year it involves the high profiled QB Tom Brady and “deflategate”. Well, it all turned out to be much to do about nothing and his 4 game suspension was over-ruled to which he will be starting the season opener tonight. The Steelers have also had some issues with star players getting into trouble but the suspensions actually sticking, seeing Martavis Bryant out with a 4 game suspension as well as Le’Veon Bell’s 2 games, who coincidentally was with former teammate, now Patriot, LeGarrette Blount, who is also dealing with a suspension of his own.

Nevertheless, the season is upon us, let football begin!

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TV: NBC @ 8:30 p.m.; LINE: Patriots -7.5, O/U 52:

Both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions, luckily for the Pats, Brady avoided his. Now with all eyes, ears and hands all over the Patriots, this will be a huge kickoff (highly rated) for the NFL with all of the surrounding controversy and attention that the Pats have found themselves in this year already. Brady will be ever prepared, as he always is but don’t look for this one to be a high scoring contest. The light rain they are having will start the game off slow and these two defenses aren’t half bad either. Yes, Wilfork is gone and is now pretending to be a kicker during practices with the Texans but the defensive front will still be strong. Troy Polamalu is now retired after acknowledging losing some steps in his game over the last few years. This defense in some ways is younger now so look for them to play refreshed but don’t be surprised with some mistakes sprinkled in. With the new extra point rules, it’ll be interesting to see if the coaches use different strategies in this wet affair. Both quarterbacks are great game managers so there will be no rushing anything.  They both know they can’t allow mistakes to happen since the other will capitalize on them.  No underinflated balls will be helping Tom win this one but look for the Steelers to keep it close. Patriots 24-20.

Check back for a preview of Sunday’s picks! Good luck!

Betting lines provided by Bovada

Week 15 Recap

Well last week ATS I had a losing record, but if you took all of my picks, you more than likely lost just the juice depending on the bets you made, 7-8-1. Some real surprises were obviously the Eagles against the Vikings and the Cowboys against the Packers. The. Eagles just kept giving the Vikings great field position all game long off the kick offs.  How many times did they think Patterson was going to return a kick for a score in the snow?  The fact that they kept doing it and only making the Vikings play on a 60-70 yard field was crazy.  2 completions could easily put them in the red zone.

I was torn on the Bengals and Lions because they are young teams and aren’t mentally focused enough to finish the season strong. Obviously the Lions have never been in the lead of the NFC North, they’ve never been there, they don’t know how to start applying pressure to the necks of the other teams and solidify the top spot. Who would’ve thought that the Vikings offense would show up like that, let alone the 3rd string RB Matt Asiata for 3 scores.

The other games that sort of caught me off guard was the Seahawks and Giants, I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to get shutout. The Redskins and Falcons game, I knew Kirk Cousins would play well but never thought he would keep them that close in the game. Even though they covered and hit the over, I didn’t think the Raiders would score 31 but when you score on huge plays and often, when you get the ball back that many times, you’re bound to score that many points. Obviously I thought the Broncos were going to go perfect at home as they have been all year, Rivers and the Bolts showed up to play which was a fear of mine. The Jets played better than I expected on the road but the game luckily/unfortunately ended in a push.  Lastly, the Ravens/Lions game.  You mean to tell me that you hold a team to only field goals and still can’t win?  That in itself is enough said!  Congrats to Tucker on being the only kicker in NFL history to hit from 20, 30, 40, 50 & 60 yards in a game.

However, call me a genius on these beauties, Dolphins over the Pats, Bills over the Jags, Colts over the Texans, and the Rams over the Saints. Listen, I have bet against the Dolphins at home too many times this year and got burnt. They’ve played well after opening the season on a horrible losing skid and the Pats were without Gronk. The Jags were without some top offensive players and even though put up ok numbers for this game, but the Jags play terribly at home usually. The Colts were due for a win and it couldn’t have come at a better time than the worst team in the NFL than the Texans. And lastly, the Saints are not the same on the road and the Rams have played very well against good teams at home.

It just goes to show you how hard it is to bet on the NFL, especially with the sort of odds the Sharks put on the games. It’s almost as if they set you up by making some games “must bet on games” and then the outcome is completely the other way. Then you have those games that are a point off, super close, comes down to the last play in the 4th quarter.

You have to watch the trends and ride them because more often than not, they pay out more than you pay in. Some of those trends include, Patriots at home, Broncos at home, Broncos in the over, Ravens home games in the under, against the Patriots on the road. Things like that. Most websites have the most recent trend information like that available for you to use for free.

Look out for my next blog, hopefully tomorrow, with my Thursday game picks and the rest of week 16 analysis and picks.

Cheers!

Week 15 Sunday and Monday Spread, Totals, Picks, Scores and Analysis

Welcome back for the rest of my week 15 predictions.  Sorry it’s a little late for I was making my way back from Camden, NJ yesterday in the snow storm, took a few hours to drive back.  Anyways, enough with the excuses, here are my pick s and quick analysis.

Bills @ Jaguars (Jags +3, O/U 42.5) – Both teams are sitting at 4-9 however the Jags have turned it around in the last few weeks.  The Jags are terrible at home and seem to can’t really score in front of their own fans, 1-5 ATS.  The Jags are dealing with numerous offensive weapons out for Sunday (Shorts III, Blackmon, Forsett, Jones-Drew).  Considering the fact that Shorts didn’t really have much to do with last week’s win and it was MJD’s show, and now he most likely will be out, Take the BILLS and the UNDER, Bills 21 – Jags 9.

Patriots @ Dolphins (Fins -1.5, O/U 46) – The Fins are 3-3 ATS at home and the Pats are 3-3 ATS on the road.  After starting the season 0-4 ATS, the Fins are 5-1 ATS since and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games.  Look for the Fins to continue that trend and cover by winning at home against the Pats.  The passing game for the Fins is starting to come along.  Thannehill will have Mike Wallace most likely matched up on Aqib Talib who is dealing with a hip injury and the Pats are missing their top receiver from the past 5 week, Rob Gronkowski.  Brady and the Pats usually find a way to win without top players but look for the Fins to put up a fight.  Take the DOLPHINS in the UNDER, Pats 20 – Fins 24.

Texans @ Colts (Colts -4, O/U 47) – Both of these teams starting the season with higher hopes than where they are at right now.  The Colts have been up and down all season, not really putting together a good string of games or show consistency since losing Reggie Wayne early in the season.  The Texans couldn’t shake a bad start and have ended up with an abysmal 2-11 record but in 8 of the 11 loses, they have been within a touchdown or less of their opponent.  Keenum is under center for the rest of the year but after looking shaky against the Jags defense last week, I don’t see an improvement this week.  Take the COLTS in the UNDER, Texans 17 – Colts 27.

Eagles @ Vikings (Vikings +6.5, O/U 53) – The Eagles come into this game on a nice win out in what seemed to be a blizzard last week.  The more amazing stat from last week was not the win but the point total.  Virtually abandoning the passing game in the second half, the run game led by Shady McCoy, rushed for 217 yards in that blizzard.  The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week and a close one even without Peterson for much of the game.  Vikings are a little banged up on the defensive side of the ball and the Eagles defense seems to get better every week.  Take the EAGLES in the OVER, Eagles 42 – Vikings 17.

Redskins @ Falcons (Falcons -6, O/U 50) – Without RGIII, look for the Redskins offense to resurge under the helm of Cousins, but don’t expect them to win.  While the fresh blood of Cousins will spark some points, the team is torn with all of the uncertainty their franchise QB has for their coach Shanahan.  The team seems to have lost some faith in their coach and only will put up some limited sparks with a 100% healthy QB in Cousins.  The Falcons have been inconsistent all season however the offense has shown flashes of what it used to be the past few years and against a down and out Redskins and being at home, look for the Falcons to play well.  Take the FALCONS and the UNDER, Redskins 17 – Falcons 31.

49ers @ Buccaneers (Buccs +5, O/U 41) – The Buccs have been under-rated with Glennon as their QB and has really matured as the season has come along.  Even though their playoff hopes are gone, they would love to play spoiler to a team who is on the verge of locking up a spot and make it tougher for the 49ers to secure a wild card spot.  The Buccs defense hasn’t been what it used to be in the early 90’s but has promise.  Kaepernick has shown to be shaky when under pressure at times this year and his play directly affects how the 49ers play.  Look for a lower scoring game if the Buccs can pressure Kaepernick but look for the 49ers to squeak away with a win.  Take the BUCCS and the UNDER, 49ers 20 – Buccs 17.

Bears @ Browns (Browns +1, O/U 44) – This one should be a gimme figuring the Bears giving just a point.  Cutler will be back under center and will look refreshed.  The Bears under McCown have played well and have kept themselves alive being 7-6 with the Lions who have the tie breaker with the Bears.  The Browns have been in a tail spin on offense after losing Hoyer but played really well in New England and even came away with a win, thanks mostly to their defense.  The surging Bears will be too much on offense and defense to deal with.  Take the BEARS and the UNDER, Bears 27 – Browns 13.

Seahawks @ Giants (Giants +7.5, O/U 42) – This one will shock people.  The Seahawks seem to struggle at times, on the road especially going from West Coast to East Coast.  The Giants are tired of being called pushovers and have played better as of late going 5-2 in their last 7 games after starting the season 0-6.  With Jason Pierre-Paul being out, Justin Tuck has stepped up getting 7 sacks over the past 3 games.  Tuck has stated this week that they don’t want to be embarrassed by the Seahawks and so will be clawing all game long to keep the Seahawks offense grounded.  The Seahawks have shown that even with some key highlights out on defense, they have the depth to make up for it.  They have 28 takeaways, tied for 1st in the NFL while the Giants have the NFL’s most turnovers with 34, much of that from the 0-6 start.  This game is important for the Seahawks to wrap up the NFC West so it is a must win for them for the road to the Super Bowl to come through Seattle.  Take the GIANTS and the UNDER, Seahawks 20 – Giants 17.

Jets @ Panthers (Panthers -10, O/U 41) – Where do you start on this one?  The Jets have played much better at home than on the road and that usually is the given for a rookie QB but on the road, it hasn’t really even been close for the Jets.  The Jets are just 1-5 on the road and 1-5 ATS on the road.  The Panthers have been covering machines lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 games with covering 7 of those 8 wins and missing the win against the Fins by just .5.  Watch for the Panthers to pour more gasonline on the dumpster fire that is the Jets on the road.  Take the PANTHERS and the UNDER, Jets 13 – Panthers 24.

Chiefs @ Raiders (Raiders +5, O/U 41) – Hello Chiefs offense.  The last 3 games have been fun to watch but the Chiefs are only 1-2 in those 3 games.  Their offense has kept them in the games and look for them to keep rolling on top of the Raiders this week.  Alex Smith has come to life and the offense looks on point and in mid-season form, getting ready for a nice playoff run.  The Raiders have been reeling since losing Terrelle Pryor and a little of that spark in the offense has gone with it. Matt McGloin has done a nice job as a fill in and not bad as an undrafted free agent rookie but he’s no super star but has put up respectable numbers (88.7 QB Rating, 957 Yards, 6 TD’s, 3 INT’s).  Take the Chiefs and the OVER, Chiefs 38 – Raiders 17.

Cardinals @ Titans (Titans +2.5, O/U 43) – The cards have shown up these last few weeks and their ATS record shows it, 9-4 (4-0 in the last 4 games).  However, the Cards have to travel cross country to face the Titans and road teams usually struggle to put up enough points to have a big win.  The Titans defense has seen some tough offenses in the last few weeks, having to deal with the Broncos last week.  The Titans offense still hasn’t really had any consistency and even in the running game, the Cards get the edge.  Take the CARDS and the UNDER, Cards 20 – Titans 17.

Packers @ Cowboys (Cowboys -6.5, O/U 49.5) – The Cowboys at home are 5-1 and are 4-2 ATS.  The Packers are 1-3-1 without Rodgers under center and have looked terrible in the passing game.  Eddie Lacy is the reason they are not 0-5-0 in those games and once Rodgers comes back, this offense will look explosive.  Until then, stay away from the Packers.  Flynn had a decent game last week which they actually won but against the Falcons who have proven to be disappointing and had not lived up to their preseason hype, and the Pack barely won that game.  The Cowboys and Romo are looking to shake the December story lines and how they can’t win.  This is a must win for the Boys and will need a win to build momentum towards next week and the playoffs later on.  Take the COWBOYS in the UNDER, Packers, 20 – Cowboys 28.

Saints @ Rams (Rams +6, O/U 47.5) – People still get excited about the Saints even when they are on the road but the numbers don’t lie.  Saints are 1-5 ATS on the road.  The Rams are only 3-3 ATS at home but have shown some fight against some really good teams in their dome especially the amazing week 8 win against the Seahawks.  Even without Bradford, Clemmens has shined for the Rams.  Expect the Rams defense to show up and keep this one as the Saints flounder on the road again.  Take the RAMS in the OVER.  Saints 24 – Rams 28.

Bengals @ Steelers (Steelers +1.5, O/U 43) – Bengals may be perfect at home but are only 3-4 on the road.  With the last road game of the year, they are looking to take a series sweep against the Steelers.  The Steelers can’t seem to put things together this year being 5-8 overall.  ATS the Bengals are 8-4-1 while the Steelers are just 6-7.  I would expect the Bengals defense to pressure Big Ben all game long and the Bengals offense to put up some decent yards through the air.  Take the BENGALS in the OVER.  Bengals 31 – Steelers 24.

Ravens @ Lions (Lions -6.5, O/U 50) – The Lions are at home this week, thawed off and ready to battle.  Expect the Lions defense to dominate with their huge defensive front led by Ndamuhong Suh.  Both teams enter the contest 6-7 ATS, but 7-6 overall.  Ravens are 1-5 on the road while the Lions are 4-2 at home, however the Lions are 3-3 ATS at home and the Ravens are 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Ravens offense won’t keep up with the Lions high powered Offense, especially with explosive Reggie Bush expected to be back in action.  Take the LIONS in the OVER but barely, Ravens 23 – Lions 30.

Sorry almost all of these picks are in late, been dealing with the snow/ice storm that hit.  These are my honest to God picks and as you can see, some are incorrect with the scores.  I will make sure to get them in by Friday.  You still have the Bengals and Lions to take, so good luck!

Look for my recap on Tuesday.