Tag: NFL predictions

Week 7: Monday Night Mash-up

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Steelers -3. O/U: 44.5:

The Texans go into Pittsburgh on a 2 game skid. They are 1-2 on the road and the offense has been all ground game and Arian Foster. Fitzpatrick has shown leadership in close games and has shown he can sustain some long drives but isn’t going to have that massive 300 yard game. The defense has helped but it is not dominating like everyone thought it would be. Yes, Clowney went out early in the season but they practically have the same defensive line as last year and have only 10 sacks with Watt having 4 of them. They have games with 1 or none and they dumped a ton of money on Watt and a 1st overall, 1st round draft pick on Clowney. There is a possibility that Clowney may return tonight but if he does, how effective will he be and how much will we see him?

The Steelers are 25-2 on Monday night at home and 8-0 of those at Heinz Field. However the Steelers haven’t been that impressive, especially their defense. They are older, slower and can’t hang with the young speedy receivers that are beating them. Big Ben has been picking it up since weeks 3, 4, 5 but hit a wall last week against the Browns. Speaking of Brown, Antonio Brown has been their star catching 5 of Ben’s 8 TD’s. The two-headed rushing monster of Bell and Blount in the back field has helped. The offense ranks 8th in passing and 4th in rushing but are 31st in the league in the red zone. The Offense is there, the defense is not. The defense will have a hard time against the Texans rush game. Watt will have a tough time getting to Ben but if he does he will have a doubly hard time bringing him down.

Take the Steelers to win with the points, and this one will score in the Over because neither defense is overpowering. Steelers 27-21

Colin Cowherd went 3-2 yesterday and yes, it turns out that the Chiefs/Chargers game was a trap bet and we now know that the 49ers can’t fill major defensive players’ roles with more than 2 defensive stars being out, I thought they would.

MATCHUP SPREAD (H) WISE GUYS AGREE W/L/P HERD’S RECORD WISE GUYS
Bengals @ Colts (-3) -3 Y W 20-12 18-14
Dolphins (+3) @ Bears -3 Y W 21-12 19-14
Giants (+6.5) @ Cowboys -6.5 Y L 21-13 19-15
Chiefs (+4) @ Chargers -4 Y W 22-13 20-15
49ers (+6.5) @ Broncos -6.5 Y L 22-14 20-16

Week 6: My Picks and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 With Sharps

Yes! I’m back in the winning record column and trying to get back to 60% winners. 9-6 record last week breaks a bad 2 week spell and I continued my dominance of Monday night picking and staying up on Thursday night games as well. Shown will be my picks, current records against the spread and the over/under and will have Colin Cowherd’s picks from his dismal week 6. SPOILER ALERT!!!: The Sharps make a come back of sorts.

My Week 6 Picks:
My Week 6

Colin Cowherd and the Sharps:
Colin Week 6

I’m feeling pretty confident coming into this weekend so lookout for my Sunday picks and of course, my practically guaranteed Monday Night pick. Enjoy your Thursday my friends!

Disclaimer: The featured image does not depict current NFL or College football betting lines, it is merely for show and the entertainment of this blog. The writer is not subject to any losses if bets are placed on the teams above in the featured image because of the lines shown in the picture. The picture depicts lines from 2009 and are not current lines for this weekends games.

Week 7: Thursday Night Divisional Throwdown

After 2 straight losing weeks against the spread, I’m back baby. I’ve had record hits on this site and I thank you readers. I try to give you a biased opinion on all of the games and if not truly in depth analysis due to my schedule, at least the main points for each game and my picks obviously. 9-6 last week against the spread and 10-5 on the over/under. By the way, on single day matchups (Thursday and Monday Night games) I am 11-2 with being 7-0 on Monday night games! These are my nights people. The wins I predicted on Thursdays covered on average by 19.5 points with last Thursday being the only nail-biter when the Colts covered by 2. My losses weren’t great though either, losing against the spread by 24.25. Mind you, 5 of the 6 home teams this year on Thursday night won and covered the spread, Redskins got blown out by the Giants a few weeks ago. After week 1 when I picked the Pack over the Seahawks, I started taking the home team on the short practice weeks and it has paid off. Follow trends, bet trends, win on trends. Now to this weeks Thursday night game:

New York Jets @ New England Patriots,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -9.5. O/U: 45:

The Pats are back, and the Jets are back…in the cellar. Rex Ryan chose to go with Geno Smith last game and guess what happened? It still didn’t result in a win. Not that Michael Vick will give them a better chance, given his turnover issues, but switching the QB in the middle of a tough season like the Jets are having can bring life to the team for at least a game or so. Vick is a likeable guy and veteran leader on the team and having him start this game gives the Jets a chance, a small one but none the less, a chance. The main issue for Geno was that he could only do so much when your GM doesn’t put weapons around you to help the college to pro transition. Yeah they got Eric Decker, but when you start a season over $23 million under the cap, that just tells the team, you couldn’t find anyone to come and play in your system and it spews that you do not care about being competitive this year. The Jets offense is sputtering, having trouble in numerous areas like getting to 20 first downs, more than 300 total yards consistently, turnovers, and just the Passing game in general. You have the 32nd, worst in the league, passing game going up against the leagues 3rd best pass defense. Not to mention, Tom Brady and the Pats offense is back. Brady had his first 300 yard pass game and 2nd straight over 275 yard game. In the weeks leading up to that Bengals game, Brady struggled to get close to 250 yards! The Pats defense also pulled out 5 sacks last week. This one will not be pretty for the Jets. They are 0-5-1 against the spread this year, and the losing streak will continue. The line may hit -10 for the Pats but whether it’s that or the line at the top, -9.5, take them to win with the spread and in the Over. I hate swallowing a TD or more in points but the Jets are that bad and the Pats O is back and their defense is much tougher this year. Patriots 31-17.

Week 6: Monday Night Mash Up

San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: 49ers -3. O/U: 44:

All of the talk about Jim Harbaugh not getting along with upper management and possible locker room issues because of his style of coaching, it hasn’t slowed the team down much. They are still performing and winning. Kaepernick after the Chiefs game stated that he would go to war for him any day of the week. If you have the leader of the team in your corner (at least to the media) then to me that means the team at least respects what his expectations of the team are. Speaking of coaching, is Jeff Fisher who lost his leader (Sam Bradford) and top defensive lineman (Chris Long), has had some close games recently and almost beat a Cowboys team a few weeks ago that just beat the Seahawks in Seattle! That is saying a lot about Austin Davis. Yes, he is virtually a rookie given that this season he ahs seen his first regular season action but he’s held his own. In each game he has improved the yards he’s thrown for and went the first 2 weeks with no TD’s but has thrown 6 in the last 2 while only throwing 3 total INT’s all year. They beat Tamps, lead most of the Cowboy game and nearly game back to beat the Eagles last week. Don’t sleep on them especially since he is completing almost 68% of his passes and has had back to back 300 yard games! They may not have faced top tier defenses but don’t be surprised if they hang in there with the 49ers. The 49ers on the other hand, have suffered in the passing game and have been relying on the feet of Gore and Kaep. The Running game is averaging 145 yards per game which is 4th in the league. Those 2 have averaged 4.7 and 4.8 yards per carry and throwing the 3rd team leading rusher, Carlos Hyde, in there, he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry. There issue is getting the ball into the end zone. They have just 10 total TD’s on offense and that’s partly due to only completing 47% of their 3rd downs, not keeping their drives alive. They have the players to make the plays but Kaep hasn’t been playing like the last 2 years, only averaging just over 200 yards per game. In a head to head matchup, take the 49ers. The spread is a little scary because you would think that the 49ers could win this one easily but Austin Davis has come around and played very well the last few weeks. I still would take the 49ers to win with the points -3 and to score in the Over. If it’s close, I think they still find a way to win. The funny thing is last year these 2 played 9/26/13 in St. Louis and the line was virtually the same; the 49ers covered the points and scored in the Over (35-11). 49ers 28-24.

If you didn’t check on Colin Cowherd’s picks, he had just his 2nd losing week of the 6 so far. He’s still picking 61% (19-12) on his picks to 58% (52-38) on mine but I am picking all games to his selective 5. He picks some tough ones but some softies to choose from as well.

Week 6: Sunday NFL Games

It’s been a theme this year, a tale of 2 halves of football. Last week, half of my picks were covering the spread in the first half. Some started off slow but won with their second half play and some gave up that halftime lead by the end of the game. I had to just give my predictions without analysis with the last bunch of games because I was running out of time before kickoff. I will do better going forward for you but I just had my first week at my new job and I’m trying to acclimate to my new hours for writing this blog but here’s a cookie, I threw in Colin Cowherd’s picks at the end. Here’s my week 6 picks:

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 54.5:
Devin Hester gets a visit from his former team this week and he hasn’t been silent about the way he feels he was treated his last few years with the Bears. Hester felt that he needed to be implemented more in the Bears offense. This year with the Falcons, he’s been in the game plan but also has to share touches with Roddy White and Julio Jones. He’s had breakout games against the Saints and Vikings and in numerous ways against the Buccs. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday but I’d put my money on him playing, and not missing any game against the Bears. His team however is slumping. Atlanta has lost their last 2 games, both on the road and are 2-3 overall (all losses from road games). Matty Ice has ice running through his veins for home games. They are so good at home, it’s hard to look past So they’re due for a win right? The Bears are also 2-3 but have had their 2 wins come on the road with their first road loss coming at the hands of the Panthers last week. They too are on a 2 game skid and questions are swirling around weather Cutler is the guy to take them where they want to go. Last week Cutler showed more inconsistent playmaking decisions with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble on a fine passing day, completing 78% of his throws for 289 yards and 2 TD’s. The theme of the year for most middle of the pack teams has been that they can play 1 half of great football and have the lead after the half or comeback and win but haven’t been able to put a whole game together. These 2 teams have that issue. This is really the matchup of 2 quarterbacks. One is viewed as elite (Ryan) and the other has his fan base crumbling belief in him that he can bring home a deep playoff run (Cutler). Look for the Falcons to start off quick, since Ryan plays his best football in the first quarter (78% completion percentage lifetime) and Cutler doesn’t really get going until the 3rd quarter, where he has his best completion percentage lifetime (63%). You also can’t ignore Matty’s home record of 40-10 in his career, including this years home games and 20-5 following a loss. It will be a tough one for the Falcons but the Bears are reeling as well and have to try and recover from the current 2 game skid on the road in a tough venue, the Georgia Dome. I would take the Falcons however, to win with the points and in the Over. Falcons 31-24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans -4.5. O/U: 42.5:
The line history on this game tells you a lot about how unsure Vegas is with this game. They want to say that they think the Jags will get their first win against another terrible team but Bortles has thrown 2 picks each game he’s played. For it to swing from -7 to -4 to -4.5 back to -4 for the Titans, while not adjusting due to a star player being injured, just shows that they may be making this bet look too wild for many to bet on. That is probably because they want to favor the home team (Titans) but think the Jags can pull off a win especially covering the spread if it’s reasonable. That being said, neither team has played well, but Bortles seems to be coming around slowly (minus the 2 picks he seems to throw every game). He was able to hook up with 9 different receivers which shows that he is still trying to find someone to groove with and mesh with as his go to guy. The defense however, has picked it up. They only allowed the Steelers to score 17 points, recorded 4 sacks, held them on 8/16 3rd downs, and the tandem of Poslusny/Cyprien accounted for 23 tackles and a sack, 34% of the teams 67 tackles. Their main issue is the non existent run game. The Titans, outside of their week oem win, has been horrible. Last week they seemed to pick it up offensively but Locker left the game and didn’t return in the 2nd quarter. The Titans scored all of their 28 points in the first half and lead by 25 at one point, probably the best half they’ve played all year. But them game isn’t won by the half and the Browns made the necessary adjustments to come from behind and win it. Look, the Titans probably will have Whitehurst in and half allowed on average, 32 points per game. That’s a ton of points and I think the Jags can pull out at least 14 and hold the Titans with their beastly defense. Take the Jags to win with the points and take the Under. Jags 21-20.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 43.5:
Well the Buccs seem to have turned the ship in the right direction with the QB change. Not many people thought they’d keep it close in the Superdome against the Saints, me included. They kept a bunch of drives going with their 20 first downs while they caused 3 Saints turnovers, all Drew Bree’s INT’s. Some quick fixes are needed for them to win games like converting on 3rd down (just 3/9 or 33% last week), 15 penalties for 113 yards, which is an unreal figure and probably took away their win right there and having 10:30 minutes time of possession LESS than the Saints. Fixing that and Vincent Jackson having another amazing game like last week (4 rec – 144 yards) will keep them in close games like this last week. The Ravens did a lot of things that can win you football games last week like causing 4 turnovers, averaging 6 yards per carry, and having a punter do work averaging 48.4 yards per punt on 5 punts. But they really shot themselves in the foot by their own turnovers (2 fumbles lost and a pick), allowing Indy to keep the ball for a crazy 38:43, and only completing 1/3 4th down attempts because they could only muster up completing 1/11 3rd down attempts. That’s just pitiful! Flacco has to play better (22/38, 58%, 235 yards, 0 TD’s/1 INT), and they need to run it more to control the clock better. They had 2 running backs with just 10 carries but rattled off 72 yards and a score (Forsett 6-42 & TD, Pierce 4-30). The line has to be better though for Flacco, giving up 4 sacks for a total of 38 yards doesn’t help either. They are 3-2 and need to turn it around which they do against the Buccs but it will be a tougher game than some will imagine. Take the Ravens to win and cover the spread but barely and in the Under. Ravens 21-17.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10 O/U: 47.5:
Geno’s time in New York is on a rocky patch but when Vick came in (which the fans were calling for), they were probably wishing Geno was back in. Not good for Rex Ryan if he can’t find a QB to win games. Geno probably shouldn’t have been started all of last year but Sanchez was injured and on the rocks with his play as well at the time but you want a guy in there that gives you the best chance to win. Mistakes and inconsistency will result in another benching, can he stand up the pressure that is the Broncos and keep up with the scoring? I tell you what, 11 first downs and being 1/12 on 3rd downs aren’t going to cut it, ever! Would you put your money on that? Maybe their defense but they won’t withstand 60 minutes of Peyton. Denver’s defense even made an appearance last week, holding the Cardinals to just 9 first downs, 3/16 on 3rd downs and only allowed 215 total yards! The offense was pretty amazing as usual, holding the ball for over 35 minutes, 568 total yards, and 24 first downs. Peyton alone threw for 31/47 (66%) 479 4 TD’s but also 2 picks, but anytime Peyton has a game like this, expect the scoring to be plentiful and the blowout to be on. They didn’t need to run much but when they did, they averaged 3.3 per run with 3 different carriers averaging 4 yards or more. D-Thomas had a blazing game as well, 8 catches for 226 (28.2) and 2 scores, with his compliment Emmanuel Sanders catching 7 for 101 (14.4) and Julius Thomas hauling in 6 for 66 (11.0) and the other 2 scores, just an outstanding receiving core that are on fire and give Peyton so many options to choose from and by the way, you didn’t see Welker on there who caught 7 for 58 yards. 3 receivers over 6 catches and 50 yards each! Wrapping your mind around that is hard because it’s unheard of. The line on this game opened in some places at 5 or 6 went to as high as 10.5 to 10 to 9.5 back to 10. Those swings just tell you to stay away from games that throw a game around like that. The Sharps don’t know what to make of the Jets since they were shutout last week 31-0 and the offense just laid down. However, this is the 3rd best pass offense in the league going against the worst pass defense in the league. Take the Broncos to win, to cover and to score at least 35 to help this one score in the Over. It will be a blow out. Broncos 38-20.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings –2.5. O/U: 43:
This is a tough one because Teddy Bridgewater is back and this will be a first look for the Lions at him. The last time the Vikes were at home with Teddy at the helm, it was an upset over the Falcons. The running game for the Vikes can do damage but they are going against one of the better run games in the league (3rd) and a pretty decent pass defense (6th). The Lions seem to be very different on the road but against the Vikings in 8 career games, Stafford has one of his better TD/INT ratios and completes about 64% of his passes against them. The big question is how will he do without Calvin Johnson in the lineup. He was listed as doubtful with his week 5 ankle injury and is expected to miss this game. That opens the door for opportunity for Teddy. I think he puts a double threat on the Lions that they haven’t really faced this year and being fresh from sitting out last week will help. They will pound the ball on the ground but not as effective as previous games and will make it a game. Having just a 2.5 point line helps me make up my mind on this one. If you got the line earlier in the week, the Lions were giving up about 1.5 points but with Johnson most likely sitting, that line flip flops so I hope you locked it in when the Vikes were 1.5 point dogs. I still think they win at home and cover the -2.5 point spread but in the Under. Vikings 20-17.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Patriots -2.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Pats line is still recovering from injuries and they are wondering who will be snapping Brady the ball. The hardest thing to do is handle the ball in between players especially snapping the ball with QB and new center. I’m sure there was extra practice all week on it but I’m going to say that the over/under on snapping blunders will be over 1. The Bills have re-found their confidence under the helm of Kyle Orton. He’s been able to give the Bills a consistent passing game like they haven’t seen with EJ Manuel. Orton has a 69.8 completion percentage and going against the 3rd best pass defense in the league, it will be tough but if anything, count him in for being consistent. He’s looked for a starting opportunity which is what brought him out of retirement and he’s got his chance and will continue to make the most of it this week against bitter rivals (bitter due to being 2-10 last 12 home games against the Pats). Sammy Watkins looked good last week with 7 catches for 84 yards. He will score a TD this week against the Pats, the Bills will be keeping this one close because they really want to beat Tom Brady. The Bills are 2nd best in the league against the run; the Pats are 14th in the run offense. Tom will get hit and pressured. Take the Bills to cover the points and to win given that this is probably their best opportunity to pull off a win against the Pats in the last decade. This game will score in the Over. Bills 24-21.

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bengals -7. O/U: 43.5:
The Bengals have covered 11 straight home games ATS by an average of 12 points! AJ Green was a last minute scratch but I’ll stick to my guns since the line hasn’t moved.   Take the Bengals to win but giving up a TD to Cam is too much so take the Panthers to cover in the Over. Bengals 27-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Browns -1. O/U: 47:
Close game as far as points but the Browns want revenge from the week 1 thrilling loss. Take the Browns to win at home with the -1 point and to score in the Under. Browns 24-21.

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2.5. O/U: 49:
Experts are saying the heat in Miami may make a difference in this one and if your betting on the heat helping the Dolphins and not betting on the Dolphins to try and win, then you need to rethink your betting strategies. Packers take this one easily over a weak Fins team and big. Take the Pack -2.5, it may even move to 2 before kickoff and to score in the Under. Packer 28-20.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -7. O/U: 43.5:
Chargers will be too strong, I don’t like taking TD spreads but the Raiders are baaaad. Chargers 31-17.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks -8.5. O/U: 47:
Cowboys are not getting any credit in this one with an +8.5 underdog spread! That’s nuts. Romo is back, the line is doing a great job and they will keep it close in the always tough Seattle. I was close to calling an upset alert but you can’t go against the 12th man. Take the Seahawks to win but the ‘Boys to cover the +8.5 point spread in the Over. Seahawks 31-24.

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -5 O/U: 45.5:
The Redskins will bounce back this week. They actually kept the game with Seattle last week within range. the Cardinals got beat up a bit by the Broncos last week and the Redskins D will keep pressure on Stanton. Take the Redskins to win with the points as well +5, and in the Under. Redskins 24-20.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Eagles -2.5. O/U: 50.5:
Eagles offense isn’t what it was last year. They are getting outscored and seem to only really play 1 half of football. The Giants have gotten much better since their first 2 weeks. This will be a good one. Still, 4-1 is 4-1, the Eagles seem to find a way to win and at home in prime time, take the Eagles to win and cover the -2.5 spread and to score in the Over. Eagles 30-27.

Colin Cowherd made his picks Friday and doesn’t like one of them and these are his lines:

Bears +3, Bengals -6.5, Giants +3, Dolphins +3.5, Chargers -7 (he doesn’t like the Chargers game).  The Sharps disagreed with the Bengals and Chargers picks.

Good betting everyone.

Week 6: Thursday Night Throw Around

Indianapolis-Colts-vs-Houston-Texans-16th-Dec-2012-300x148Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 46.5:

Mr. Luck has been anything but lucky…he’s been flat out great! He is leading the league in Yards (1,617), TD’s (14) and INT’s (6) interestingly enough. He leads the leagues best offensive pass game, averaging 321.8 yards per game. The Colts at home did a lot of things right, 26 1st downs, over 17 minutes more of time of possession (which is almost unreal), total yards, but also turnovers. Bradshaw had been a surprising bright spot in their offense. He had dealt with a bunch of injuries with the Giants that everyone felt it would continue in Indy. Trent Richardson still looks like he’ll be a bust but Bradshaw has taken a bit of that sting away with his play. Giving Luck that run option opens up the play book for more read option, play action type plays. This shows in Luck’s numbers. As long as Bradshaw stays healthy, Luck stays hot.

The Texans aren’t that simple. Last week they kept it close and almost pulled out a win against the Cowboys. To no surprise though, Fitzpatrick was mediocre, didn’t throw over 160 yards, no TD’s and threw a pick. The difference between a blow out and a 3 point OT loss was Adrian Foster. Over 150 yards, 2 TD’s, while averaging 6.8 yards per carry which is awesome. If the Texans can get the ground game moving early and control the clock, we might have another close one on our hands. Adrian Foster looks like he did a few years ago and has momentum. Look for him to have a good night.

However, take the Colts giving -3 points in the same weather/stadium conditions as in Indy to win and score in the Over. Colts 28-24.

Monday Night Football Mashup: Preview and Prediction

They say runs like what I have had don’t last, well, the run I was on crashed and burned starting Thursday and ended yesterday. That’s because the second run starts tonight. I took some chances on some out of the box picks and got burned. The Falcons and Saints are who I thought they were (pun sort of intended) but it’s true and I should’ve stuck with picking against them due to how bad they can be on the road. Could’ve been 7-5 but I underestimated Bridgewater and how well the offensive line for the ‘Boys have improved and grew together. Lets get to the Monday Night game…

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Patriots are off to a good start while playing their worst, probably ever, under Brady’s watch. He is being hit left and right due to the awful offensive line. The run game has also struggled at times having these line issues. The Pats have taken advantage of the turnovers their defense have created while the Chiefs are the worst in the league with turnover differential and that has shown to hurt them in their games and stall any momentum the offense gains. Brady and the passing game has yet to climb above 250 yards and that will continue with Tamba Hali chasing Brady around the pocket. Even without Charles, the Chiefs running game still dropped big yardage on the ground. Charles is still a questionable return coming into Monday but expect the Chiefs to turn their ship around at home. It’ll be close but with the Chiefs getting +3.5 at home, that’s your best bet. Take the Chiefs to win with the points but not knowing if Charles is going to be in the game, it might stay in the Under. Chiefs 24-20.

The Chiefs should get on track with a win and so to will my handicapping. Good luck everyone.

Musings & Week 15 Thursday Game

Welcome back readers!  Today I will be discussing how my fantasy football teams did this past week and who I have starting this week, and a quick preview of all week 15 NFL action as well as spread, over/under analysis and predictions using the lines from Covers.com.  I will also give my reaction Bleacher Report’s week 15 predictions.  I cut out the Fan Duel conversation and saved that for a topic for next week.

I run in just in 2 leagues, only because more would be too much work to have to update constantly on my type of schedule.  One is in one of my buddies’ league with a gentlemen’s wager of $20 per team.  This past week was the start of the playoffs for this league.  I came into the playoffs like Seattle a few years back, I was 6-7 but on a current 2 game slide.  I had to face a team with Peyton Manning (31 points), Antonio Brown (19 points), Andre Johnson (15 points), and the Chiefs Defense (27 points).  To say the least, it was a tough game.  However, I had a team worthy of being competitive but just couldn’t match up with the stats of my opponent, Drew Brees (28 points), Desean Jackson (11 points), Chris Johnson (8 points), and Jason Witten (7 points).  Now those players mentioned as the highlights on my team were actually outscored by my kicker (all but Brees), Phil Dawson (16 points), who was signed Sunday, around 3 pm, as a last minute acquisition because I forgot to start my actual kicker Mason Crosby.  Nevertheless, my team ultimately lost 118-80 and was booted from the playoffs.

My other league, I am the commissioner of.  This league consists of a few newbies to fantasy football or guys who only have a season or two under their belts.  Again, gentlemen’s wager of just $10.  I have dominated this league, going 8-0 to open the season but limped to my first week bye going 2-3 in the last 5 weeks.  This week is my bye but heading in to my first playoff matchup, this will be my starting lineup for next week:

QB Drew Brees/WR Vincent Jackson/WR Demarius Thomas/RB Pierre Thomas/RB Jamaal Charles/TE Tony Gonzalez/WR-TE-RB Dwayne Bowe/K Garrett Hartley/DEF Seattle Seahawks

Now here is when I’m just supposed to brag about how I picked some of these guys up in lopsided trade with a newbie or picked a couple of these guys up off the free agents waiver wire and hit big.  No.  I drafted every one of my starters and this is why having a strong draft will carry you through your season and the playoffs.  From what I’ve noticed in fantasy football, not many people are willing to trade because you play just about everyone at some point in the season.  I must applaud my good buddy Josh in the $20 league he runs, he traded me Drew Brees and Chris Johnson for Marcus Colston and Adrian Peterson (trade happened around week 4 or so).  I saw that as a fair trade and one that I thought would benefit me in the long run since Brees puts up crazy numbers and the Vikings offense has been hot and cold through the first couple of weeks this season.  Nevertheless, he made it past the first round (and picked up McCown just before the week started to which he scored him 38 points, Peterson got hurt and only scored him 1 point but had Shady McCoy which scored him 33 points to which McCown/McCoy accounted for 71 of his winning 104 points this past week against a team that only scored 78 points, so yeah…) and I didn’t.

I didn’t have as strong of a draft as my other league but was also playing against some smarter fantasy players who all drafted well.  Through the season I was in that waiver wires hunt every week, trying to catch the next couple week starter that busts out for 20-30 quick points.  Live by the draft, die by the draft.  Do your homework, have a strong draft and make smart moves/trades.

Now, on to my week 15 analysis and picks.  I will be going into depth on Sunday’s and Monday’s games later this week for analysis.  I will put the lines up now so you know where they are at least starting Wednesday.

For now, here are my thoughts on the Thursday game:

Thursday 12/12/13

Chargers @ Broncos

Covers.com

Covers.com is a site I use to check lines and trends since they do polls of the users of the site as well as 12 “expert” odds makers and how they feel the game will go with the given lines.  They also have a little write up and prediction at the end of every games preview.  Also included on this site for every game is individual and team stats, as well as injuries and previous 10 games of each team and previous 10 meetings of the two teams.  This site gives you a lot of information to use and it’s all free!

Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report shows the Odds Shark computer prediction for every game which runs thousands of simulation models to come up with an estimated guess based on facts and factors for the game.  Bleacher Report gives you the computers scores and then gives you their predictions against or with the computers outcome, so you’re really getting two predictions.

Odds Shark says:  38.2 – 27.9 Broncos Victory in the Over

Bleacher Report says:  San Diego will have to play one of its best games of the year to hang with the Broncos. Rivers has been absolutely great, and Chargers head coach Mike McCoy might have some insight as to how to slow down Manning and Co. But Denver has proven it can cover big numbers. Give the points with the Broncos, and pay attention to the OVER trends below as well.

Covers.com says: Broncos 37 – Chargers 27 in the Over

My Predictions

Listen, I lost out on this game the first time around, I won’t do that again!  I took the BRONCOS on the points and the OVER back in early November and lost out because they scored under 56 only totaling 48 points.  Out of the Broncos 13 games so far this year, 2 games have scored under the point total, back to back weeks but first being against the Chargers.  They were the first real test for Peyton and his Broncos, making the highlight reels feature the other team as well and actually keeping the game within reach for the Chargers.  Broncos still covered but barely.  This week it’s Denver, in the cold again, but Manning put to rest the accusations that he doesn’t play well in the cold and wouldn’t play well in Denver come crunch time, late in the season and through the playoffs. Broncos are -10 with an over/under of 55.5. 

I say stay away from the spread as I think it could go either way but definitely take the OVER 55.5 as the Broncos have this unreal offense and listen, Denver has covered the points or came within 7 of the total by themselves alone in 3 of 7 home games this year, and 4 of 13 overall.  In the NFL, that means you are scary good!  I want to say, with the Broncos being at home, they will want to end the last regular season home game for its fans on a high scoring note, not to mention the excitement of having their coach John Fox back on the sidelines.  He missed his first game after open heart surgery in week 10 when they played the Chargers and makes his first game return against them…coincidence?

Broncos 45 – Chargers 31

Trends:

  • Broncos cover or come within 7 of the points total by themselves in 3 of 7 home games
  • Broncos have beaten the Chargers four straight overall
  • Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS past seven games at Denver
  • Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games as road underdogs
  • OVER is 12-2-1 past 15 games when Chargers are road underdogs
  • OVER is 10-1-1 past 12 Broncos home games
  • OVER is 8-0-1 past nine times Broncos home as double-digit favorites
  • Chargers Pass/Overall Defense entering this week are both 28th in the NFL
  • Broncos Pass/Overall Defense entering this week are 29th/25th in the NFL
  • Chargers Pass/Overall Offense and Points entering this week are 4th/4th/11th in the NFL
  • Broncos Pass/Overall Offense and Points entering this week are all 1st in the NFL
  • Manning has recorded 11 games with 300+ passing yards this season, tying Tom Brady for the 2nd most in NFL history
  • Chargers WR Keenan Allen has 61 catches (a franchise record for a rookie) for 902 yards, 5 TD’s
  • The Broncos need to score 75 points in their final 3 games to break the NFL record of 589 total season points set by the Patriots in 2007.  They average 39.6 points per game so far this year

The rest of the NFL games (lines only), spreads are for the home team.

Redskins @ Falcons -6.5   O/U 51

49ers @ Buccaneers +5   O/U 41

Seahawks @ Giants +7   O/U 41

Bears @ Browns -1   O/U 45

Texans @ Colts -5.5   O/U 45.5

Bills @ Jaguars +2   O/U 43

Patriots @ Dolphins +2.5   O/U 45.5

Eagles @ Vikings +4.5   O/U 51

Chiefs @ Raiders +4   O/U 41

Jets @ Panthers -11   O/U 40.5

Packers @ Cowboys -7   O/U 48.5

Saints @ Rams +5.5   O/U 47

Cardinals @ Titans +2.5   O/U 41.5

Bengals @ Steelers +3   O/U 40.5

Ravens @ Lions -6   O/U 48