Tag: BETS

Week 4: Sunday Games & Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5

Well, we opened up with a great win.  Boy did that game look ugly for the Bears.  They had the game plan I talked about in the last post however, couldn’t stick to it.  Not because the game strayed away from it but because they couldn’t hold onto the football early on.  Lots of early turnovers and giving the ball to Aaron Rodgers instead of keeping it from hi, put them in an early hole that they never could escape.  I always feel hesitation when swallowing a touchdown but I couldn’t pass there and now we have a few Sunday to choose from.  There’s work to do for my comeback off of a really bad week.  This week I’m going to pick just a handful of games to write about and then just give you my picks for the rest.  Lets get to it.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (L), 9:30a (Dolphins +3, O/U: 50.5)

This one scares me only because teams that play in London one week, have the next week off.  I wonder how much of a distraction Adrian Peterson is in the locker room, calling for some more touches.  Take the Dolphins in the under, 27-21.

 
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 1p (Falcons -8, O/U: 48.5)

Bills looked good last week at home against one of the best defenses in the league but the Falcons are monsters at home.  I don’t like swallowing a touchdown or more but you need to have an amazing offense to cover, which the Falcons have.  Take the Falcons to win in the Over, 38-13.

 
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 1p (Ravens +3, O/U: 42.5)

This game will surely disappoint on offense but if you’re a defense kind of game.  As long as you’re a defense guy, this is a heckuva matchup. Ravens are more consistent at home, and the Steelers unravel away from Heinz Stadium.  Some outlier stats is that the Steelers are 0-4-1 against the spread with the Ravens with the underdog being 4-0-1 in those same meetings.  Take the Ravens in the under, 17-10.

 
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 1p (Browns +3, O/U: 41.5)

Bengals and Browns.  Probably the worst matchup of the season.  Bengals FINALLY scored some touchdowns last week!  I think the Bengals pull this one out in front of the dog pack.  Bengals in the under, 20-14.

 
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, 1p (Cowboys -6.5, O/U: 48.5)

This line started around -9.5 and -10 in some areas, went to -6 and now at -6.5.  That tells me that Vegas, doesn’t know if they can truly trust a Rams line.  Cowboys are tough at home and will more than likely win this game but it’ll be closer given that the Rams have a new coaching staff that has this offense clicking.  The defense has always been solid but never had a complimentary offense.  The Rams will break that unreal Cowboys offensive line here and there but Dak is too good when escaping the pocket.  This is a favorite by nearly a touchdown that I just can’t pull the trigger on.  Take the Rams in the under but the Cowboys to win, 24-21.

 
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1p (Texans +2.5, O/U: 43.5)

Titans even on the road will roll on the Texans.  Watson may shine a bit but the Titans are sneaky good this year on both sides of the ball.  Take the Titans in the over, 27-17.

 
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1p (Vikings -2.5, O/U: 42.5)

Another NFC North matchup this week.  Once again, no Sam Bradford but we all have seen how capable this team is with or without him.  The Vikings have some really solid weapons other than Diggs.  The Lions are coming off of a heartbreaking loss due to a replay basically taking away a touchdown.  The bets are swinging around 54% Lions -46% Vikings.  That is too close to touch for most bettors but if your feeling lucky, listen up.  Take the Lions in the over, 31-27.

 
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, 1p (Patriots -9, O/U: 49.5)

I want to give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt, that they’ll keep it close and respectable but I can’t.  Again, another touchdown, plus spread that the favorite will cover given the lack of available weapons and a declining Cam Newton.  Take the Patriots to win in the under, 34-13.

 
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1p (Jets +3, O/U: 38.5)

The Jets defense has awoken.  I know what you’re gonna say, “but Jacksonville looked so good last week in London and blew out the Ravens”.  Well, again, I go back to how things used to be.  There’s more London games this year and thus has resulted in you not getting the next week off if you play there. In turn, it’s basically a short week for the team with all of that travel.  Take the Jets as home dogs to win it in the over, 21-20.

 
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05p (Cardinals -6.5, O/U: 44.5)

Another big spread for the week and again one that I think gets covered by the home team.  Typically if a team plays Thursday night the week before and Sunday the next week, I like taking them with the extra few days of preparation.  Those extra days aren’t going to help the 49ers who last week gave up a ton of yards and points to the Rams.  Now they eventually came back with a valiant effort but ultimately, still lost.  The 49ers were given a +3 spread last week at home, this week +6.5.  Only a 3.5 point difference and that is basically a 3 point swing for being away now.  So to me, that’s saying that the Cardinals are viewed as .5 point favorites over the Rams.  I don’t buy that yet.  Larry Fitzgerald will have another solid matchup this week given how bad the 49ers secondary is.  Take the Cardinals in the under, 31-10.

 
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05p (Chargers -2.5, O/U: 47.5)

LeGarrette Blount had himself a game last week.  Look for him to bust loose again with Sproles out for the season with the multitude of injuries sustained in last weeks game (knee/wrist).  Smallwood will be peppered in there as a change of pace back and Wentz will be told to launch the big chunk yardage plays when he can.  The Chargers are 0-3 this year and playing their home games in a soccer field.  There’s even talks about if the Chargers should stay or go back to San Diego.  Even with their defensive front, I think this team has already lost the edge.  Take the Eagles to win in the over, 35-17.

 
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05p (Buccaneers -3, O/U: 44.5)

Gosh, where do I begin?  Winston can’t keep himself from making poor decisions with the ball through the air, even with the weapons he has.  The Giants looked a bit better last week with OBJ back and healthy last week.  They are still struggling with their ground game but making it work with 4 different guys.  The Buccs also banged up on defense, especially their front.  Take the Giants to win in the over, 26-20.

 
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25p (Broncos -3, O/U:46)

Rivalry game with a really good and young offense going to the house of a really good, veteran defense that have won a super bowl recently.  The Broncos, while not having a household name at quarterback, have been consistently gaining yards and scoring, complementing their defense well.  The Raiders defense, especially through the air, has been atrocious.  Take the Broncos to win in the under, 24-17.

 
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30p (Seahawks -13, O/U: 41.5)

This line I have no clue how it blew up to 13.  I mean, it even grew a .5 point since the line opened.  The Seahawks offense, even at home, has been absolutely terrible.  They only scored 12 points at home against the 49ers a few weeks ago.  What is the logic behind this line?  Brissett is a capable quarterback and proved it last week with the start and win at home over the Browns.  This game is looking juicy for a Colts bet.  Take the Seahawks to win but the Colts to keep it close in the under, Colts 17-10.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 on the year is an amazing 11-4 to start 2017, here’s his picks for the week:

Giants (+3) @ Buccs
Steelers @ Ravens (+3)
Rams (+8) @ Cowboys
Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)
Redskins @ Chiefs (-6.5)

 

Week 3: Thursday Night Football

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers, 8:25pm (49ers +3, O/U: 40)

Sheesh, what a matchup.  These Thursday night games seem to be one bad matchup after another.  Now, the Rams seem to have some things together on offense with their new coach, Sean McVay, but the faith in Goff still isn’t totally there.  The rise of a semi stable passing game has taken a bit of the burden off of Gurley, who is having a good start to his third year in the league.  This will be a battle of defenses all night.  I’m actually shocked the over/under is where it is at 40.  I’m hinting at half of my prediction.

The 49ers defense has been a surprising bright spot of this team.  Losing key players on their defense over the years as hurt them but others have stepped up and a healthy NaVarro Bowman is the piece that leads this defenses success.  Hoyer needs to settle in.  Give the guy a break, it’s rather hard to go from system to system and play against tough defenses to start the season.  If he can get consistent in the short passing game, Hyde can gash the defense, and the 49ers could push for a bounce back season, starting with this game.

Don’t let the Rams early success grab your faith just yet.  This game could really give you a sense as to the capabilities of the Goff.  Look for the 49ers to steal a win as a home dog in the under, because it’ll be an ugly one.  49ers win in the under, 17-16.

Thursday Night Throwdown

This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners.  The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter.  With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back.  For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise.  Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards.  Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over.  He has games like that from time to time.  Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up.  These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.

Monday Night Mashup

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts,
8:30 p.m., TV: ESPN, LINE: Colts -7, O/U: 46:
The Colts came out flat last week against the Bills and came away with a lot of questions in the rushing game.  Not one running back ran for more than 35 yards, and Luck turned the ball over as many times as he put it in the end zone.  Tyrod Taylor turned out to be pretty good and didn’t fold under the pressure of playing Luck.  The Jets on the other hand came away with a win under Fitzpatrick, who finds himself in another organization who can’t get their act together.  It also helps that his rushing game stepped up and took some of the load.  It also helps that a fresh but unexperienced Manziel had to take over the Browns offense.  The Colts defense couldn’t stop Taylor, don’t think they’ll stop the vet Fitzpatrick plus the Jets actually have a running game to use.  The Jets will keep it close but Luck puts together a decent game at home. My Pick: Colts 27-24.

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

Thursday Night Throwdown

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Chiefs -3, O/U: 42.5:

Last week was a bit of a shock seeing Manning struggle.  A lot of off season reports stated his arm was strong and he looked great.  Well, Sunday, not so much.  Reports of no zip being on the ball, ducks being thrown and the deep ball lacking posses questions about Denver’s passing game.  The league is now turning to a shorter passing game, screens and slot receivers are the ones making more catches for more yards.  Does this help Manning through this year, with Sanders, yes.  The defense looked good at least, keeping them in the game last week but the offense sputtered and it scares people.  The Chiefs on the other hand looked amazing and against Yet the wide receivers are still without a TD.  Andy Reid will use Kelce to disrupt the Broncos secondary, creating huge mismatches.  My pick: Chiefs 27-20.

Monday Night Mashup: Eagles @ Falcons & Vikings @ 49ers

Monday night football is back, here’s a rundown of the Eagles and Falcons game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons,
TV: ESPN @ 7:10 p.m.; LINE: Falcons +3.5 O/U 56:

Sam Bradford finally can get things started in Philly. The fans have been clamoring about the hopes all offseason long and get a great chance at a good start against the Falcons in Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t really had the hottest of defenses in recent years, this year seems to be no exception. The offense is usually there with a great air attack with Jones and White on the outside but the running game has been suspect. Two young backs are looking to change that, second year back Freeman and rookie Coleman look to complement each other and share reps in the backfield to give another dimension to an already potent offense. The masterful Chip Kelly will once again look to make some magic with his fourth starting quarterback in 3 years. He’s been able to squeeze out great season no matter the man behind center, but with an actual number one guy who is healthy and has tons of experience, the sky is the limit. It also helps to have the 3 headed back of Murray, Sproles and Matthews in the backfield. Young guns like Agholor, Matthews and Huff look to be the future of the air attack for Bradford. Chip also revamped the defense with Alonso and Maxwell, so look for that side of the ball to improve as well. This one will be a shoot out! My Pick: Eagles 38-28.

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers,
TV: ESPN @ 10:20 p.m.; LINE: 49ers +3 O/U 43:

New coach, tons of missing starters on defense and offense from a year ago make this one hard to evaluate. You can’t really see a sense of a teams losses in the preseason since most of the first team doesn’t play with each other and if they do it’s only for about a series or quarter at most. There just isn’t always enough time to establish rhythm in a meaningless game. They do have some studs in the backfield who proved they can replace Gore but Kaepernick hasn’t proven he’s worth the big contract the 49ers gave him. On the other hand, the Vikings were without their franchise guy in Peterson for the last 15 games of last season. Good or bad thing? Has it slowed him down or rested him immensely? A talent like Peterson only gets better with rest and doesn’t rust up like the tin man. He’s out to prove himself to everyone that he still has it and that he stuck around Minnesota and didn’t jet to Dallas for a reason. Peterson’s absence also gave Bridgewater more reign over the offense and really shinned late in the season on his way to winning rookie of the year in the NFC. Peterson will garnish about 25-28 carries and if Kaep struggles look for the same if not a few more touches for Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush, which all in all will slow the pace and scoring of this game. In all, the loss of Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will be too many losses to stop a rising offense in the Vikes. It’s always a bad sign when your defense from a year ago was ranked in the top 5 among the NFL to outside the top 12 in most preseason rankings in the next year, that’s no coincidence folks. Not to mention a lot of new pieces on the offensive side of the ball will more than likely contribute to more struggles for Kaep. Look forward to a new era of Vikings football in 2015 along with their new crib. My Pick: Vikings 21-17

Week 1 – Sunday Roundtable with Colin Cowhed’s Blazing 5

Week one, Sunday regular season action is upon us.  Here are my predictions and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 picks.  Good luck to all!

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills +3 O/U: 45
Rex Ryan’s new era in Buffalo begins with Tyrod Taylor as his starter, unfortunately it’s against a tough Colts team lead by the miraculous Andrew Luck. Buffalo’s defense will make it tough on Luck but Taylor won’t get anything going on offense for the Bills. Pick: Colts 27-17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Bears -7 O/U: 49
No Jordy Nelson, no problem. Green Bay has had depth at receiver for years with the next best guy always stepping up. James Jones was recently signed to add security to the position for the season, back with his favorite elite quarterback in a very familiar offense. Pack don’t miss a step in Chicago but the spread is almost too great for this division rivalry. Pick: Packers 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Texans +1 O/U: 41
Adding Maclin to the receiving corps will help Alex Smith get some touchdowns to the receivers this year, but the Texans defense is back with two of the biggest defensive ends in the game with Clowney being healthy again. The Texans will be without Foster for this game so look to see the back field platooning. Defense wins the day and the Texans are a home dog so take them. Pick: Texans 17-14

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Jags +3 O/U: 40.5
An intriguing matchup with the Jags toughening defense and the lackluster, nearly weaponless Panthers offense. I am surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick’em given that Bortles started to settle in as an NFL starter late last year. He’s got a plethora of young talent at receiver and with TJ as the new addition to the back field, look for the Jags to set a winning building block this year. Cam tries to do it all in this game which will be dangerous. It’ll be close but Cam can’t get the ball to enough guys to make up for missing Benjamin. Pick: Jags 17-16

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Jets -3.5 O/U: 38.5
The Browns have been piecing together a team for years with no real direction. The defense always seemed to be the lone standout and kept them in a few games but the lack of offense proved to be its main weakness. With the Jets defense always being solid, now adding a sure star in Marshall on the outside as a main target, the Jets will try to move on from Geno slowly and find a winner at QB in Fitzpatrick who can win and keep mistakes to a minimum. No cannon but can give Marshall a big year. Pick: Jets 14-12

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Rams +4 O/U: 41.5
These two always seem to give each other fits and Seattle has never been stellar on the road. The Rams always give good teams trouble on the defensive side but with Foles as their new guy behind center, it may rejuvenate the franchise who were at the mercy of Sam Bradford and his knees. Expect bigger things from the Rams this year but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this yet and had an average year compared to his first with Chip Kelly in Philly. Pick: Seahawks 20-17

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Redskins +5 O/U: 45.5
The Dolphins anchored their man behind center with a nice new fat contract but now come the expectations. The Dolphins aren’t just going to rely on Tannehill as they added a stud at defensive tackle in Suh. Adding him will make the front defensive line that much tougher. Dolphins go from mediocre to playoff contenders this year. The Redskins have been in a tailspin again this offseason with more RGIII talk. With Cousins starting, they’re offense will have less distraction with injuries and off the field comments but Cousins isn’t their guy and the Redskins should’ve traded him when his value was very high 2 years ago. It must hurt being a home dog by more than a field goal but it’s for good reason. Pick: Fins 31-17

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Cards -2.5 O/U: 48
Jimmy Graham is no longer the main, attractive weapon in Who Dat nation. Brandin Cooks is now the young outstanding weapon opposite Colston that will keep the passing game thriving but still not as hot as it has been in years past. Brees took a bit of a hit in yardage however will still have more than 4,000 yards. The Cards have Palmer back and healthy. With the addition of Chris Johnson and some other young backs platooning in, the Cards could have a moderately successful season if most of the main offensive pieces stay healthy. This game is in doors which is both teams bread and butter. Look for it to be close like the line states but the Cards hold on. Pick: Cards 27-24

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Chargers -3.5 O/U: 46
The Chargers open up at home without their start tight end Gates in the lineup. No more Matthews in the backfield will prove to shortchange the Chargers in the redzone. However the lack off redzone threats for the Chargers, the Lions are without Suh on their defensive front. That will considerably change the dynamic of their pass rush. Nonetheless, both teams still have the ability to air it out. Pick: Chargers 24-21

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Broncos -5 O/U: 47
With new offensive minds for the Broncos and an aging legend who still deals with numbness in his throwing hand, look for the Broncos to tone it down a bit in the air game, especially without Julius Thomas now with the Jags. The running game isn’t a sure bet to take over the offense but the days of 45-50 TD’s in the passing game are over for Manning. The Ravens on the other hand found a gem last year in Forsett. Coupled with the strong armed Flacco and Steve Smith threat, the Ravens are poised to have a good year. Pick: Broncos 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Raiders +3 O/U: 43
The Raiders all around looked pretty good this off season. Defensively sound and Carr is developing nicely for them. The Bengals are going to put up their typical average season, good start, horrible finish. Teams are now on to Andy Daulton and once under substantial pressure, he will turn the ball over. Look for the Bengals to go to the run game more this year than in the past to limit picks. Pick: Raiders 21-17

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Buccs -3 O/U: 41
The rookie quarterback matchup, Winston and Mariota is what we’ve all been waiting to see. Who made out better. This will show which quarterback was better prepared for their inaugural season. That being said, Winston was drafted into a much better offensive situation than Mariota. With Evans and Jackson on the outside Jenkins at tight end, and Martin/Sims combo in the backfield, the Buccs are going to be riding high this year if Winston can settle into the offense at full pace. Mariota has a little more work to do with the lack of weapons compared to Winston but he is a great game manager and doesn’t make errors often. Pick: Buccs 27-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC. LINE: Cowboys -7 O/U: 52.5
Another early divisional matchup pits the revamped Giants offense with Cruz back, the Giants are poised to have a pretty successful air attack again this year. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher in Murray, jetting to another divisional rival, the Eagles, but landed Run DMC formerly of the Raiders. He hasn’t been all that cracked up to be since he was drafted but a new place, new team, new O-line might bring some spark out of him. Still, Romo, Dez and Witten are a tough combo in itself to handle. Pick: Cowboys 30-27

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:
Jaguars (+3) 23-20
Ravens (+5) 27-26
Packers (-7) 34-20
Rams (+4.5) 27-26
Giants (+6) 28-26

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Throwdown

Back for the 2015 season. It’s been another long offseason with many news topics that have been discussed and there’s usually one that beats the dead horse and this year it involves the high profiled QB Tom Brady and “deflategate”. Well, it all turned out to be much to do about nothing and his 4 game suspension was over-ruled to which he will be starting the season opener tonight. The Steelers have also had some issues with star players getting into trouble but the suspensions actually sticking, seeing Martavis Bryant out with a 4 game suspension as well as Le’Veon Bell’s 2 games, who coincidentally was with former teammate, now Patriot, LeGarrette Blount, who is also dealing with a suspension of his own.

Nevertheless, the season is upon us, let football begin!

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TV: NBC @ 8:30 p.m.; LINE: Patriots -7.5, O/U 52:

Both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions, luckily for the Pats, Brady avoided his. Now with all eyes, ears and hands all over the Patriots, this will be a huge kickoff (highly rated) for the NFL with all of the surrounding controversy and attention that the Pats have found themselves in this year already. Brady will be ever prepared, as he always is but don’t look for this one to be a high scoring contest. The light rain they are having will start the game off slow and these two defenses aren’t half bad either. Yes, Wilfork is gone and is now pretending to be a kicker during practices with the Texans but the defensive front will still be strong. Troy Polamalu is now retired after acknowledging losing some steps in his game over the last few years. This defense in some ways is younger now so look for them to play refreshed but don’t be surprised with some mistakes sprinkled in. With the new extra point rules, it’ll be interesting to see if the coaches use different strategies in this wet affair. Both quarterbacks are great game managers so there will be no rushing anything.  They both know they can’t allow mistakes to happen since the other will capitalize on them.  No underinflated balls will be helping Tom win this one but look for the Steelers to keep it close. Patriots 24-20.

Check back for a preview of Sunday’s picks! Good luck!

Betting lines provided by Bovada

Week 6: Sunday NFL Games

It’s been a theme this year, a tale of 2 halves of football. Last week, half of my picks were covering the spread in the first half. Some started off slow but won with their second half play and some gave up that halftime lead by the end of the game. I had to just give my predictions without analysis with the last bunch of games because I was running out of time before kickoff. I will do better going forward for you but I just had my first week at my new job and I’m trying to acclimate to my new hours for writing this blog but here’s a cookie, I threw in Colin Cowherd’s picks at the end. Here’s my week 6 picks:

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 54.5:
Devin Hester gets a visit from his former team this week and he hasn’t been silent about the way he feels he was treated his last few years with the Bears. Hester felt that he needed to be implemented more in the Bears offense. This year with the Falcons, he’s been in the game plan but also has to share touches with Roddy White and Julio Jones. He’s had breakout games against the Saints and Vikings and in numerous ways against the Buccs. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday but I’d put my money on him playing, and not missing any game against the Bears. His team however is slumping. Atlanta has lost their last 2 games, both on the road and are 2-3 overall (all losses from road games). Matty Ice has ice running through his veins for home games. They are so good at home, it’s hard to look past So they’re due for a win right? The Bears are also 2-3 but have had their 2 wins come on the road with their first road loss coming at the hands of the Panthers last week. They too are on a 2 game skid and questions are swirling around weather Cutler is the guy to take them where they want to go. Last week Cutler showed more inconsistent playmaking decisions with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble on a fine passing day, completing 78% of his throws for 289 yards and 2 TD’s. The theme of the year for most middle of the pack teams has been that they can play 1 half of great football and have the lead after the half or comeback and win but haven’t been able to put a whole game together. These 2 teams have that issue. This is really the matchup of 2 quarterbacks. One is viewed as elite (Ryan) and the other has his fan base crumbling belief in him that he can bring home a deep playoff run (Cutler). Look for the Falcons to start off quick, since Ryan plays his best football in the first quarter (78% completion percentage lifetime) and Cutler doesn’t really get going until the 3rd quarter, where he has his best completion percentage lifetime (63%). You also can’t ignore Matty’s home record of 40-10 in his career, including this years home games and 20-5 following a loss. It will be a tough one for the Falcons but the Bears are reeling as well and have to try and recover from the current 2 game skid on the road in a tough venue, the Georgia Dome. I would take the Falcons however, to win with the points and in the Over. Falcons 31-24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans -4.5. O/U: 42.5:
The line history on this game tells you a lot about how unsure Vegas is with this game. They want to say that they think the Jags will get their first win against another terrible team but Bortles has thrown 2 picks each game he’s played. For it to swing from -7 to -4 to -4.5 back to -4 for the Titans, while not adjusting due to a star player being injured, just shows that they may be making this bet look too wild for many to bet on. That is probably because they want to favor the home team (Titans) but think the Jags can pull off a win especially covering the spread if it’s reasonable. That being said, neither team has played well, but Bortles seems to be coming around slowly (minus the 2 picks he seems to throw every game). He was able to hook up with 9 different receivers which shows that he is still trying to find someone to groove with and mesh with as his go to guy. The defense however, has picked it up. They only allowed the Steelers to score 17 points, recorded 4 sacks, held them on 8/16 3rd downs, and the tandem of Poslusny/Cyprien accounted for 23 tackles and a sack, 34% of the teams 67 tackles. Their main issue is the non existent run game. The Titans, outside of their week oem win, has been horrible. Last week they seemed to pick it up offensively but Locker left the game and didn’t return in the 2nd quarter. The Titans scored all of their 28 points in the first half and lead by 25 at one point, probably the best half they’ve played all year. But them game isn’t won by the half and the Browns made the necessary adjustments to come from behind and win it. Look, the Titans probably will have Whitehurst in and half allowed on average, 32 points per game. That’s a ton of points and I think the Jags can pull out at least 14 and hold the Titans with their beastly defense. Take the Jags to win with the points and take the Under. Jags 21-20.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 43.5:
Well the Buccs seem to have turned the ship in the right direction with the QB change. Not many people thought they’d keep it close in the Superdome against the Saints, me included. They kept a bunch of drives going with their 20 first downs while they caused 3 Saints turnovers, all Drew Bree’s INT’s. Some quick fixes are needed for them to win games like converting on 3rd down (just 3/9 or 33% last week), 15 penalties for 113 yards, which is an unreal figure and probably took away their win right there and having 10:30 minutes time of possession LESS than the Saints. Fixing that and Vincent Jackson having another amazing game like last week (4 rec – 144 yards) will keep them in close games like this last week. The Ravens did a lot of things that can win you football games last week like causing 4 turnovers, averaging 6 yards per carry, and having a punter do work averaging 48.4 yards per punt on 5 punts. But they really shot themselves in the foot by their own turnovers (2 fumbles lost and a pick), allowing Indy to keep the ball for a crazy 38:43, and only completing 1/3 4th down attempts because they could only muster up completing 1/11 3rd down attempts. That’s just pitiful! Flacco has to play better (22/38, 58%, 235 yards, 0 TD’s/1 INT), and they need to run it more to control the clock better. They had 2 running backs with just 10 carries but rattled off 72 yards and a score (Forsett 6-42 & TD, Pierce 4-30). The line has to be better though for Flacco, giving up 4 sacks for a total of 38 yards doesn’t help either. They are 3-2 and need to turn it around which they do against the Buccs but it will be a tougher game than some will imagine. Take the Ravens to win and cover the spread but barely and in the Under. Ravens 21-17.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10 O/U: 47.5:
Geno’s time in New York is on a rocky patch but when Vick came in (which the fans were calling for), they were probably wishing Geno was back in. Not good for Rex Ryan if he can’t find a QB to win games. Geno probably shouldn’t have been started all of last year but Sanchez was injured and on the rocks with his play as well at the time but you want a guy in there that gives you the best chance to win. Mistakes and inconsistency will result in another benching, can he stand up the pressure that is the Broncos and keep up with the scoring? I tell you what, 11 first downs and being 1/12 on 3rd downs aren’t going to cut it, ever! Would you put your money on that? Maybe their defense but they won’t withstand 60 minutes of Peyton. Denver’s defense even made an appearance last week, holding the Cardinals to just 9 first downs, 3/16 on 3rd downs and only allowed 215 total yards! The offense was pretty amazing as usual, holding the ball for over 35 minutes, 568 total yards, and 24 first downs. Peyton alone threw for 31/47 (66%) 479 4 TD’s but also 2 picks, but anytime Peyton has a game like this, expect the scoring to be plentiful and the blowout to be on. They didn’t need to run much but when they did, they averaged 3.3 per run with 3 different carriers averaging 4 yards or more. D-Thomas had a blazing game as well, 8 catches for 226 (28.2) and 2 scores, with his compliment Emmanuel Sanders catching 7 for 101 (14.4) and Julius Thomas hauling in 6 for 66 (11.0) and the other 2 scores, just an outstanding receiving core that are on fire and give Peyton so many options to choose from and by the way, you didn’t see Welker on there who caught 7 for 58 yards. 3 receivers over 6 catches and 50 yards each! Wrapping your mind around that is hard because it’s unheard of. The line on this game opened in some places at 5 or 6 went to as high as 10.5 to 10 to 9.5 back to 10. Those swings just tell you to stay away from games that throw a game around like that. The Sharps don’t know what to make of the Jets since they were shutout last week 31-0 and the offense just laid down. However, this is the 3rd best pass offense in the league going against the worst pass defense in the league. Take the Broncos to win, to cover and to score at least 35 to help this one score in the Over. It will be a blow out. Broncos 38-20.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings –2.5. O/U: 43:
This is a tough one because Teddy Bridgewater is back and this will be a first look for the Lions at him. The last time the Vikes were at home with Teddy at the helm, it was an upset over the Falcons. The running game for the Vikes can do damage but they are going against one of the better run games in the league (3rd) and a pretty decent pass defense (6th). The Lions seem to be very different on the road but against the Vikings in 8 career games, Stafford has one of his better TD/INT ratios and completes about 64% of his passes against them. The big question is how will he do without Calvin Johnson in the lineup. He was listed as doubtful with his week 5 ankle injury and is expected to miss this game. That opens the door for opportunity for Teddy. I think he puts a double threat on the Lions that they haven’t really faced this year and being fresh from sitting out last week will help. They will pound the ball on the ground but not as effective as previous games and will make it a game. Having just a 2.5 point line helps me make up my mind on this one. If you got the line earlier in the week, the Lions were giving up about 1.5 points but with Johnson most likely sitting, that line flip flops so I hope you locked it in when the Vikes were 1.5 point dogs. I still think they win at home and cover the -2.5 point spread but in the Under. Vikings 20-17.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Patriots -2.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Pats line is still recovering from injuries and they are wondering who will be snapping Brady the ball. The hardest thing to do is handle the ball in between players especially snapping the ball with QB and new center. I’m sure there was extra practice all week on it but I’m going to say that the over/under on snapping blunders will be over 1. The Bills have re-found their confidence under the helm of Kyle Orton. He’s been able to give the Bills a consistent passing game like they haven’t seen with EJ Manuel. Orton has a 69.8 completion percentage and going against the 3rd best pass defense in the league, it will be tough but if anything, count him in for being consistent. He’s looked for a starting opportunity which is what brought him out of retirement and he’s got his chance and will continue to make the most of it this week against bitter rivals (bitter due to being 2-10 last 12 home games against the Pats). Sammy Watkins looked good last week with 7 catches for 84 yards. He will score a TD this week against the Pats, the Bills will be keeping this one close because they really want to beat Tom Brady. The Bills are 2nd best in the league against the run; the Pats are 14th in the run offense. Tom will get hit and pressured. Take the Bills to cover the points and to win given that this is probably their best opportunity to pull off a win against the Pats in the last decade. This game will score in the Over. Bills 24-21.

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bengals -7. O/U: 43.5:
The Bengals have covered 11 straight home games ATS by an average of 12 points! AJ Green was a last minute scratch but I’ll stick to my guns since the line hasn’t moved.   Take the Bengals to win but giving up a TD to Cam is too much so take the Panthers to cover in the Over. Bengals 27-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Browns -1. O/U: 47:
Close game as far as points but the Browns want revenge from the week 1 thrilling loss. Take the Browns to win at home with the -1 point and to score in the Under. Browns 24-21.

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2.5. O/U: 49:
Experts are saying the heat in Miami may make a difference in this one and if your betting on the heat helping the Dolphins and not betting on the Dolphins to try and win, then you need to rethink your betting strategies. Packers take this one easily over a weak Fins team and big. Take the Pack -2.5, it may even move to 2 before kickoff and to score in the Under. Packer 28-20.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -7. O/U: 43.5:
Chargers will be too strong, I don’t like taking TD spreads but the Raiders are baaaad. Chargers 31-17.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks -8.5. O/U: 47:
Cowboys are not getting any credit in this one with an +8.5 underdog spread! That’s nuts. Romo is back, the line is doing a great job and they will keep it close in the always tough Seattle. I was close to calling an upset alert but you can’t go against the 12th man. Take the Seahawks to win but the ‘Boys to cover the +8.5 point spread in the Over. Seahawks 31-24.

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -5 O/U: 45.5:
The Redskins will bounce back this week. They actually kept the game with Seattle last week within range. the Cardinals got beat up a bit by the Broncos last week and the Redskins D will keep pressure on Stanton. Take the Redskins to win with the points as well +5, and in the Under. Redskins 24-20.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Eagles -2.5. O/U: 50.5:
Eagles offense isn’t what it was last year. They are getting outscored and seem to only really play 1 half of football. The Giants have gotten much better since their first 2 weeks. This will be a good one. Still, 4-1 is 4-1, the Eagles seem to find a way to win and at home in prime time, take the Eagles to win and cover the -2.5 spread and to score in the Over. Eagles 30-27.

Colin Cowherd made his picks Friday and doesn’t like one of them and these are his lines:

Bears +3, Bengals -6.5, Giants +3, Dolphins +3.5, Chargers -7 (he doesn’t like the Chargers game).  The Sharps disagreed with the Bengals and Chargers picks.

Good betting everyone.