Tag: ANALYSIS

Thursday Night Throwdown

This division has been a complete surprise full of injuries and unexpected winners.  The Eagles have been a huge surprise as well as the Redskins for that matter.  With the injuries to the Cowboys, expect them to fall from grace until about week 8 when they get some key starters back.  For now, enjoy the power struggle of the NFC East.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Giants -4, O/U: 45:
Since the air game isn’t so consistent for the Skins, the ground game has been a pleasant surprise.  Morris in week one and now Matt Jones last week going over 100 yards.  Last week, Cousins was actually consistent and didn’t turn the ball over.  He has games like that from time to time.  Eli last week hit OBJ big last week for huge yardage and a score but is bound to be inconsistent but you’ll never know when the “cable” version of Eli shows up.  These two teams played decent against good defenses last week so expect this one to be close and low scoring. My Pick: Giants 21-20.

Monday Night Mashup

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts,
8:30 p.m., TV: ESPN, LINE: Colts -7, O/U: 46:
The Colts came out flat last week against the Bills and came away with a lot of questions in the rushing game.  Not one running back ran for more than 35 yards, and Luck turned the ball over as many times as he put it in the end zone.  Tyrod Taylor turned out to be pretty good and didn’t fold under the pressure of playing Luck.  The Jets on the other hand came away with a win under Fitzpatrick, who finds himself in another organization who can’t get their act together.  It also helps that his rushing game stepped up and took some of the load.  It also helps that a fresh but unexperienced Manziel had to take over the Browns offense.  The Colts defense couldn’t stop Taylor, don’t think they’ll stop the vet Fitzpatrick plus the Jets actually have a running game to use.  The Jets will keep it close but Luck puts together a decent game at home. My Pick: Colts 27-24.

Week 2 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bills +1.5, O/U: 45:
The Patriots came into week one with questions at quarterback until the courts overturned his 4 game suspension. Tom put on a clinic and absolutely made the NFL eat some sour grapes with his play and yes there was even radiogate. McCoy is expected to play given his hamstring issue but wasn’t very effective carrying the ball in week 1 but is still a viable option for Taylor in the pass game. The Bills have a stingy looking defense against a very good Andre Luck and the Colts. Bills win this one despite Gronk having a big game. My Pick: Bills 21-20.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Panthers -3, O/U: 41:
Houston couldn’t stop a thing last week against the Chiefs. With a stacked defensive line, Alex Smith should’ve been under tons of pressure and it should’ve been closer and yes, they were predicted to win. Hoyer didn’t have a great game and now Mallett is under center. He has a strong arm with a lot of talent but his downfall is never living up to his potential. With a shot in Houston and not sitting behind Brady, maybe it’ll liven up the kid. Kuechly is out with a concussion from last weeks game against the Jags but with him out, the Panthers still stuffed the Jags. Mallett seemed to get the offense going last week almost making a comeback. The Panthers didn’t have a whole lot of options in the air game but Stewart looked like his old/healthy self with a huge game given the low expectations. My Pick: Texans 24-20.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Bears +2.5, O/U: 46:
Palmer tore up a Saints secondary that was suspect going into the game. The Bears also got lit up by a fantastic looking Packers air game. Ellington may be out but that air game will be as strong as ever. The Bears put up a good fight against Green Bay at home but with Cutler making mistakes and even late in the game when he needs to be at his best, it gives the Bears a disadvantage where they don’t need it. Where they make up for it is Forte however, he’s not the guy who has the ball in his hands every play to make better decisions. My Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Bengals -3.5, O/U: 48:
The Bengals have been unreal at home and another monster on the road and especially ugly late in the seasons. Keenan Allen had a career game last week with a missing Antonio Gates. Tyler Eifert also had a career game in last week’s matchup against the Raiders. With these two offenses on point to start the season off right, the defenses won’t have a chance to keep the end zone clear of celebrations. I’m just surprised there isn’t a side bet for Adam “Pacman” Jones getting into trouble again, seeing that he had a fit of rage last week that costed him some good cabbage. My Pick: Bengals 31-24.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns,
1 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Browns +1.5, O/U: 41:
Mariota looked like a seasoned vet last week torching the Buccs secondary for 4 scores. This week also marks the first career start for Johnny Manziel who looked good at times and bad at other times. This is also the second week in a row 2 Heisman wining quarterbacks will be facing each other. Last week it was the last 2 years winners and this week is the winner from 3 years ago versus last year’s winner. Mariota has workable weapons, Manziel doesn’t. My Pick: Titans 22-20.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Vikings -3, O/U: 44.5:
The Vikings did not look good at all last week but in the new home they turn it around. They didn’t feed Adrian Peterson the rock like they should’ve but that changes today. Teddy is still young and doesn’t have the control of the team like a vet can. The Lions offense has always been decent and Ebron looked to have a good start to his sophomore bid. My Pick: Lions 20-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Saints -10, O/U: 47:
Division rivalries are always good games but Winston seemed to be exposed by a not that great Titans defense. Saints secondary got torched by a healthy Carson Palmer but recoup against a raw Winston. Brees looked like himself and on the road even. Look for him to explode at home and expose the Buccs again and then some. My Pick: Saints 35-17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants,
1 p.m., TV: FOX LINE: Giants -2, O/U: 49:
The Giants looked pretty resilient last week in Dallas and nearly won the game but gave it up late. Eli looked like typical Eli and look for that to continue against a Falcons team that gave the Eagles fits early last week and even beat them. The Falcons can be iffy on the road in outdoors games and the Giants aren’t favored that much but the offense didn’t look great. My Pick: Falcons 23-17.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Steelers -6, O/U: 46:
The 49ers came out of the gates with a nice upset win. The defense put together a great game against an offense that was poised to do great things given the momentum coming off of last season. Big Ben and the Steelers had some lapses in judgement when covering Gronk last week but with over a week to prepare and seeing what things did work for the 49ers and their run game, they have a big game and really show us who the 9ers are. My Pick: Steelers 33-14.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins,
1 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Redskins +4, O/U: 41:
The Rams came out and had decent expectations going into the Seahawks game last week and nearly lost it but fended them off for a huge upset win. They always play tough defense at home but have never had a consistent starter behind center. Now that Foles is in town, the guy gives a great deep ball threat and the Redskins have been a dumpster fire for years but the defense can stop drives but if the offense can’t get anything going, it’ll wear them out and open them up. My Pick: Rams 31-19

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Jaguars +6.5, O/U: 42:
The Dolphins enjoyed a nice win last week against the Skins but this week against the Jags could prove to be a tougher play, defensively anyways. The Jags usually have a decent defense but still allowed the Panthers to score 20 without a whole lot of offensive weapons. The Jags will hold the Dolphins buy not enough due to the offense being stuffed by a much improved Fins defensive front. My Pick: Dolphins 24-14.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders,
4:05 p.m., TV: CBS, LINE: Raiders +6, O/U: 42:
What to make of the Ravens. They had a hard time getting anything going on offense last week agains the Broncos but the defense looked really good and even after losing Suggs for the year after tearing his Achilles. The Raiders got off to an ok start but after Carr left the game with a hand injury, all hope went out the door. With Carr back this week, some of that hope is back. This will be another low scoring affair but with the better team coming out on top. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders keep it close however. My Pick: Ravens 20-17.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles,
4:25 p.m., TV: FOX, LINE: Eagles -7, O/U: 54.5:
The Eagles might’ve started slow but finished big last week against the Falcons last week. The Falcons still took them to the woodshed long enough to get the win but give the Eagles a few extra minutes last week and they would’ve pulled it out. The defense still got blown out of the water in the air game even with Maxwell as a new edition. The Falcons still had some big time targets to throw to but the Cowboys don’t have Dez in the lineup. They do however have good depth of trustworthy receivers that can step up and contribute. 7 is a pretty big spread for these two to go at it. My Pick: Eagles 30-25.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers,
8:30 p.m., TV: NBC, LINE: Packers +3.5, O/U: 50:
The Seahawks have lost some key members on their defense especially since one of them is by their own doings, not figuring out the Chancellor thing yet. The Packers are unreal at home, always count on them to ride high with Rodgers behind center. The Packers had a 12 point lead in the NFC Championship game in Green Bay last year. They let that game slip away and the Hawks pulled off some kind of miracle. That doesn’t sit well with Green Bay who haven’t beat them since 2010, 5 matchups ago. Rodgers will be out for blood and with James Jones filling in for Jordy Nelson in the best possible way last week, that’s going to make them that much more dangerous this year. The Seahawks put together a decent offensive performance in a tough road matchup against the Rams last week. They normally don’t score like that on the road and to be up in tough Green Bay, they won’t duplicate over 30 points but Jimmy Graham helps. My Pick: Packers 31-26.

Thursday Night Throwdown

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs,
8:25 p.m., TV: CBS/NFLN, LINE: Chiefs -3, O/U: 42.5:

Last week was a bit of a shock seeing Manning struggle.  A lot of off season reports stated his arm was strong and he looked great.  Well, Sunday, not so much.  Reports of no zip being on the ball, ducks being thrown and the deep ball lacking posses questions about Denver’s passing game.  The league is now turning to a shorter passing game, screens and slot receivers are the ones making more catches for more yards.  Does this help Manning through this year, with Sanders, yes.  The defense looked good at least, keeping them in the game last week but the offense sputtered and it scares people.  The Chiefs on the other hand looked amazing and against Yet the wide receivers are still without a TD.  Andy Reid will use Kelce to disrupt the Broncos secondary, creating huge mismatches.  My pick: Chiefs 27-20.

Monday Night Mashup: Eagles @ Falcons & Vikings @ 49ers

Monday night football is back, here’s a rundown of the Eagles and Falcons game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons,
TV: ESPN @ 7:10 p.m.; LINE: Falcons +3.5 O/U 56:

Sam Bradford finally can get things started in Philly. The fans have been clamoring about the hopes all offseason long and get a great chance at a good start against the Falcons in Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t really had the hottest of defenses in recent years, this year seems to be no exception. The offense is usually there with a great air attack with Jones and White on the outside but the running game has been suspect. Two young backs are looking to change that, second year back Freeman and rookie Coleman look to complement each other and share reps in the backfield to give another dimension to an already potent offense. The masterful Chip Kelly will once again look to make some magic with his fourth starting quarterback in 3 years. He’s been able to squeeze out great season no matter the man behind center, but with an actual number one guy who is healthy and has tons of experience, the sky is the limit. It also helps to have the 3 headed back of Murray, Sproles and Matthews in the backfield. Young guns like Agholor, Matthews and Huff look to be the future of the air attack for Bradford. Chip also revamped the defense with Alonso and Maxwell, so look for that side of the ball to improve as well. This one will be a shoot out! My Pick: Eagles 38-28.

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers,
TV: ESPN @ 10:20 p.m.; LINE: 49ers +3 O/U 43:

New coach, tons of missing starters on defense and offense from a year ago make this one hard to evaluate. You can’t really see a sense of a teams losses in the preseason since most of the first team doesn’t play with each other and if they do it’s only for about a series or quarter at most. There just isn’t always enough time to establish rhythm in a meaningless game. They do have some studs in the backfield who proved they can replace Gore but Kaepernick hasn’t proven he’s worth the big contract the 49ers gave him. On the other hand, the Vikings were without their franchise guy in Peterson for the last 15 games of last season. Good or bad thing? Has it slowed him down or rested him immensely? A talent like Peterson only gets better with rest and doesn’t rust up like the tin man. He’s out to prove himself to everyone that he still has it and that he stuck around Minnesota and didn’t jet to Dallas for a reason. Peterson’s absence also gave Bridgewater more reign over the offense and really shinned late in the season on his way to winning rookie of the year in the NFC. Peterson will garnish about 25-28 carries and if Kaep struggles look for the same if not a few more touches for Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush, which all in all will slow the pace and scoring of this game. In all, the loss of Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will be too many losses to stop a rising offense in the Vikes. It’s always a bad sign when your defense from a year ago was ranked in the top 5 among the NFL to outside the top 12 in most preseason rankings in the next year, that’s no coincidence folks. Not to mention a lot of new pieces on the offensive side of the ball will more than likely contribute to more struggles for Kaep. Look forward to a new era of Vikings football in 2015 along with their new crib. My Pick: Vikings 21-17

Week 1 – Sunday Roundtable with Colin Cowhed’s Blazing 5

Week one, Sunday regular season action is upon us.  Here are my predictions and Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 picks.  Good luck to all!

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills +3 O/U: 45
Rex Ryan’s new era in Buffalo begins with Tyrod Taylor as his starter, unfortunately it’s against a tough Colts team lead by the miraculous Andrew Luck. Buffalo’s defense will make it tough on Luck but Taylor won’t get anything going on offense for the Bills. Pick: Colts 27-17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Bears -7 O/U: 49
No Jordy Nelson, no problem. Green Bay has had depth at receiver for years with the next best guy always stepping up. James Jones was recently signed to add security to the position for the season, back with his favorite elite quarterback in a very familiar offense. Pack don’t miss a step in Chicago but the spread is almost too great for this division rivalry. Pick: Packers 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Texans +1 O/U: 41
Adding Maclin to the receiving corps will help Alex Smith get some touchdowns to the receivers this year, but the Texans defense is back with two of the biggest defensive ends in the game with Clowney being healthy again. The Texans will be without Foster for this game so look to see the back field platooning. Defense wins the day and the Texans are a home dog so take them. Pick: Texans 17-14

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Jags +3 O/U: 40.5
An intriguing matchup with the Jags toughening defense and the lackluster, nearly weaponless Panthers offense. I am surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick’em given that Bortles started to settle in as an NFL starter late last year. He’s got a plethora of young talent at receiver and with TJ as the new addition to the back field, look for the Jags to set a winning building block this year. Cam tries to do it all in this game which will be dangerous. It’ll be close but Cam can’t get the ball to enough guys to make up for missing Benjamin. Pick: Jags 17-16

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Jets -3.5 O/U: 38.5
The Browns have been piecing together a team for years with no real direction. The defense always seemed to be the lone standout and kept them in a few games but the lack of offense proved to be its main weakness. With the Jets defense always being solid, now adding a sure star in Marshall on the outside as a main target, the Jets will try to move on from Geno slowly and find a winner at QB in Fitzpatrick who can win and keep mistakes to a minimum. No cannon but can give Marshall a big year. Pick: Jets 14-12

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m., FOX. LINE: Rams +4 O/U: 41.5
These two always seem to give each other fits and Seattle has never been stellar on the road. The Rams always give good teams trouble on the defensive side but with Foles as their new guy behind center, it may rejuvenate the franchise who were at the mercy of Sam Bradford and his knees. Expect bigger things from the Rams this year but Foles hasn’t faced a defense like this yet and had an average year compared to his first with Chip Kelly in Philly. Pick: Seahawks 20-17

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. LINE: Redskins +5 O/U: 45.5
The Dolphins anchored their man behind center with a nice new fat contract but now come the expectations. The Dolphins aren’t just going to rely on Tannehill as they added a stud at defensive tackle in Suh. Adding him will make the front defensive line that much tougher. Dolphins go from mediocre to playoff contenders this year. The Redskins have been in a tailspin again this offseason with more RGIII talk. With Cousins starting, they’re offense will have less distraction with injuries and off the field comments but Cousins isn’t their guy and the Redskins should’ve traded him when his value was very high 2 years ago. It must hurt being a home dog by more than a field goal but it’s for good reason. Pick: Fins 31-17

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Cards -2.5 O/U: 48
Jimmy Graham is no longer the main, attractive weapon in Who Dat nation. Brandin Cooks is now the young outstanding weapon opposite Colston that will keep the passing game thriving but still not as hot as it has been in years past. Brees took a bit of a hit in yardage however will still have more than 4,000 yards. The Cards have Palmer back and healthy. With the addition of Chris Johnson and some other young backs platooning in, the Cards could have a moderately successful season if most of the main offensive pieces stay healthy. This game is in doors which is both teams bread and butter. Look for it to be close like the line states but the Cards hold on. Pick: Cards 27-24

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX. LINE: Chargers -3.5 O/U: 46
The Chargers open up at home without their start tight end Gates in the lineup. No more Matthews in the backfield will prove to shortchange the Chargers in the redzone. However the lack off redzone threats for the Chargers, the Lions are without Suh on their defensive front. That will considerably change the dynamic of their pass rush. Nonetheless, both teams still have the ability to air it out. Pick: Chargers 24-21

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Broncos -5 O/U: 47
With new offensive minds for the Broncos and an aging legend who still deals with numbness in his throwing hand, look for the Broncos to tone it down a bit in the air game, especially without Julius Thomas now with the Jags. The running game isn’t a sure bet to take over the offense but the days of 45-50 TD’s in the passing game are over for Manning. The Ravens on the other hand found a gem last year in Forsett. Coupled with the strong armed Flacco and Steve Smith threat, the Ravens are poised to have a good year. Pick: Broncos 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Raiders +3 O/U: 43
The Raiders all around looked pretty good this off season. Defensively sound and Carr is developing nicely for them. The Bengals are going to put up their typical average season, good start, horrible finish. Teams are now on to Andy Daulton and once under substantial pressure, he will turn the ball over. Look for the Bengals to go to the run game more this year than in the past to limit picks. Pick: Raiders 21-17

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. LINE: Buccs -3 O/U: 41
The rookie quarterback matchup, Winston and Mariota is what we’ve all been waiting to see. Who made out better. This will show which quarterback was better prepared for their inaugural season. That being said, Winston was drafted into a much better offensive situation than Mariota. With Evans and Jackson on the outside Jenkins at tight end, and Martin/Sims combo in the backfield, the Buccs are going to be riding high this year if Winston can settle into the offense at full pace. Mariota has a little more work to do with the lack of weapons compared to Winston but he is a great game manager and doesn’t make errors often. Pick: Buccs 27-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC. LINE: Cowboys -7 O/U: 52.5
Another early divisional matchup pits the revamped Giants offense with Cruz back, the Giants are poised to have a pretty successful air attack again this year. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher in Murray, jetting to another divisional rival, the Eagles, but landed Run DMC formerly of the Raiders. He hasn’t been all that cracked up to be since he was drafted but a new place, new team, new O-line might bring some spark out of him. Still, Romo, Dez and Witten are a tough combo in itself to handle. Pick: Cowboys 30-27

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Picks:
Jaguars (+3) 23-20
Ravens (+5) 27-26
Packers (-7) 34-20
Rams (+4.5) 27-26
Giants (+6) 28-26

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Throwdown

Back for the 2015 season. It’s been another long offseason with many news topics that have been discussed and there’s usually one that beats the dead horse and this year it involves the high profiled QB Tom Brady and “deflategate”. Well, it all turned out to be much to do about nothing and his 4 game suspension was over-ruled to which he will be starting the season opener tonight. The Steelers have also had some issues with star players getting into trouble but the suspensions actually sticking, seeing Martavis Bryant out with a 4 game suspension as well as Le’Veon Bell’s 2 games, who coincidentally was with former teammate, now Patriot, LeGarrette Blount, who is also dealing with a suspension of his own.

Nevertheless, the season is upon us, let football begin!

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TV: NBC @ 8:30 p.m.; LINE: Patriots -7.5, O/U 52:

Both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions, luckily for the Pats, Brady avoided his. Now with all eyes, ears and hands all over the Patriots, this will be a huge kickoff (highly rated) for the NFL with all of the surrounding controversy and attention that the Pats have found themselves in this year already. Brady will be ever prepared, as he always is but don’t look for this one to be a high scoring contest. The light rain they are having will start the game off slow and these two defenses aren’t half bad either. Yes, Wilfork is gone and is now pretending to be a kicker during practices with the Texans but the defensive front will still be strong. Troy Polamalu is now retired after acknowledging losing some steps in his game over the last few years. This defense in some ways is younger now so look for them to play refreshed but don’t be surprised with some mistakes sprinkled in. With the new extra point rules, it’ll be interesting to see if the coaches use different strategies in this wet affair. Both quarterbacks are great game managers so there will be no rushing anything.  They both know they can’t allow mistakes to happen since the other will capitalize on them.  No underinflated balls will be helping Tom win this one but look for the Steelers to keep it close. Patriots 24-20.

Check back for a preview of Sunday’s picks! Good luck!

Betting lines provided by Bovada

Week 7: Monday Night Mash-up

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Steelers -3. O/U: 44.5:

The Texans go into Pittsburgh on a 2 game skid. They are 1-2 on the road and the offense has been all ground game and Arian Foster. Fitzpatrick has shown leadership in close games and has shown he can sustain some long drives but isn’t going to have that massive 300 yard game. The defense has helped but it is not dominating like everyone thought it would be. Yes, Clowney went out early in the season but they practically have the same defensive line as last year and have only 10 sacks with Watt having 4 of them. They have games with 1 or none and they dumped a ton of money on Watt and a 1st overall, 1st round draft pick on Clowney. There is a possibility that Clowney may return tonight but if he does, how effective will he be and how much will we see him?

The Steelers are 25-2 on Monday night at home and 8-0 of those at Heinz Field. However the Steelers haven’t been that impressive, especially their defense. They are older, slower and can’t hang with the young speedy receivers that are beating them. Big Ben has been picking it up since weeks 3, 4, 5 but hit a wall last week against the Browns. Speaking of Brown, Antonio Brown has been their star catching 5 of Ben’s 8 TD’s. The two-headed rushing monster of Bell and Blount in the back field has helped. The offense ranks 8th in passing and 4th in rushing but are 31st in the league in the red zone. The Offense is there, the defense is not. The defense will have a hard time against the Texans rush game. Watt will have a tough time getting to Ben but if he does he will have a doubly hard time bringing him down.

Take the Steelers to win with the points, and this one will score in the Over because neither defense is overpowering. Steelers 27-21

Colin Cowherd went 3-2 yesterday and yes, it turns out that the Chiefs/Chargers game was a trap bet and we now know that the 49ers can’t fill major defensive players’ roles with more than 2 defensive stars being out, I thought they would.

MATCHUP SPREAD (H) WISE GUYS AGREE W/L/P HERD’S RECORD WISE GUYS
Bengals @ Colts (-3) -3 Y W 20-12 18-14
Dolphins (+3) @ Bears -3 Y W 21-12 19-14
Giants (+6.5) @ Cowboys -6.5 Y L 21-13 19-15
Chiefs (+4) @ Chargers -4 Y W 22-13 20-15
49ers (+6.5) @ Broncos -6.5 Y L 22-14 20-16

Week 7: Sunday Picks and Colin Cowherd with the Sharps

EDIT NOTE: I updated the point spread since Covers.com was down late last night and early this morning. My Picks will stay the same.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Ravens -7. O/U: 49.5:
Hey Falcons, nice game last week. They rarely lose at home and I mentioned their record last week and they crumbled on me. Atlanta is just morbid on the road, last week shocked me and with a line this big, I can’t see them losing by 7, i can see them losing by 10 or more. They lost by 10 or more the last 3 outside away games, winless on the road and just can’t move the ball effectively. It was an embarrassing loss at home and I don’t see the team recovering. The run game is bad which forces Ryan to throw more which has made him less consistent, just over 50% completions last week. The defense isn’t stopping anyone either. Bail bail bail. The Ravens on the other hand have a half decent offense and can actually run without Ray Rice, which no one saw working this well. Last week they jumped out to a 38-0 lead at the half and lead 28-0 after the first quarter. Flacco was on point early with 4 of his 5 TD passes coming in the first quarter, going 21/29 72% 306 yards 10.6 yards per pass attempt 14.6 per completion and 5 TD’s and 0 picks. That is a heck of a day for any quarterback and most of the rest of the game, the Ravens ran the ball and still racked up 169 yards on 35 carries, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and a score. Ravens are hot, the spread is not, I hate the favorite giving 6.5 to 7 points. However, you can’t deny how bad the Falcons are on the road in an open stadium and the Ravens are hot. Take the Ravens to win with the points but in the Under. Ravens 31-17

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Redskins -6. O/U: 46:
Jake Locker is still questionable to play, Whitehurst can do everything Locker does except he may not get hurt so easily. Both have roughly the same completion percentage and yardage. I don’t consider neither of them to be competent long term starters but can get the job done from time to time. The issue for the Titans is that their 2 quarterbacks are helping the team average 228 yards a game while the rushing game is a brighter spot but still only averaging 67 yards between the rookie Sankey and veteran Greene but averaging as a team about 116 per game. Don’t expect too much with either QB in, as the Redskins defense have been terrorizing opposing QB’s. The defense for the Skins has held up through the awful 1-5 start but have stayed in some games but it’s tough to do when the defense spends more time on the field than your offense just about every game because the offense turns the ball over a ton. The turnover differential is probably the root as to what has help this team spiral out of control. They have given the ball up 13 times and have only taken it away 4 times. The defense plays well early in games and can reach the QB early but when they are on the field more than the offense and are behind in games, the defense fails and gets tired. They still however are the 5th best offense in terms of yards but Cousins needs to not turn the ball over so much to take leads and keep them. It’s a battle of 2 bad teams and you can’t trust neither of them even with home field advantage. I will however go with the better defense and more explosive offense. Take the Redskins to win with the points, but it will score in the Under. Redskins 24-14.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, LINE: Seahawks -7 O/U: 43.5:
This game is a very interesting one. Austin Davis has looked really good filling in for the injured Sam Bradford and the Seahawks just got beat at their house by America’s Team. The Rams are winless at home but not for lack of effort or blowouts but stared some really good teams dead in the eyes and went toe to toe all four quarters with them. They went back to back weeks in the NFC East with the Cowboys and Eagles and lost by 3 after leading at the half to the ‘Boys and damn near came back on the Eagles posting 14 points in the 4th and holding the Eagles to 0 in the same quarter. Last week it was the 49ers in which they had a 14-10 lead at the half. Their issue is just maintaining consistency through all four quarters. Confidence has to be there. They have the 7th best passing game in the league and the defense being pieced together through injuries has stood up well enough to keep the team in it each game. The Seahawks were caught napping last week and don’t let that final 30-23 score fool you, it was a dominating game for the Cowboys. Without the blocked punt returned for a TD, you’re talking 30-16 with just one lonely offensive touchdown either way. The Hawks were severely beat in TOP by about 15 minutes and only converted 5/13 (39%) 3rd downs and could only turn out 9 first downs and only 209 total yards. This can’t continue and an embarrassment like that is what motivates a team, especially with a defense like the Hawks. The Seahawks have only one way to go, up and they will get a fight trying to get back on track. Again, I hate to give team a TD to start the game especially at home, so you have to think about how worthy your pick in this game would be and maybe look into the record of the Hawks the last couple of years giving up 6.5-7 points. I still think the Hawks will win but Seattle is a different team, mostly on offense, on the road so they win but the Rams cover the spread +7 and this game will score in the Over. Seahawks 24-21.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, . LINE: Browns -4 O/U: 44.5:
Blake Bortles showed some growth, control and consistency last week all while only throwing 1 pick compared to his 2 average per game. He almost pulled out their first win of the year, albeit a bad team, but looked much better. I’m still torn on wether or not he or Chad Henne gives the team a better chance to win each week given the lack of experience from Bortles and how similarly their stats look. Chad usually throws as many picks as TD’s but is 3-1 TD-INT’s this year and had a banged up receiving core this year. The browns are scrappy. Hoyer’s won’t pop out at you as amazing but he gets the job done. Last week he completed about half of his passes but had 200+ yards on 8 completions for over 25+ yards per completion! which is awesome. The Browns keep games close on limiting mistakes. They’ve turned the ball over 5 times but have only caused 2 on their defense. They complete less than 40% of their 3rd downs but do remember that they played some good defenses, The Steelers twice, the Ravens and Titans before their free fall. The Jags are no pushovers themselves and will put up a fight. Cleveland isn’t a team I ever imagined getting a line like this and it’s tough to take them. Take the Browns to win but the Jags on the points and this game will score in the Under. Browns 17-14.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts –3 O/U: 50.5:
Last week I made the mistake with sticking with my guns on the Bengals covering almost a TD against Cam’s Panthers even though AJ Green was kept out of the game. I will not make that same mistake this week. When you think of Marvin Lewis, you think a great defensive team. The past 2 weeks they’ve allowed 80 points and 936 yards! The team committed 13 penalties for 113 yards, Daulton threw 2 picks. They did stay in the game without their star WR, Daulton still played a good game (33/43 77% 323 yards and 2 TD’s) utilizing Sanu on the outside for 10 grabs, 120 yards and a TD, and had some help on the ground with Bernard carrying the rock 18 times for 137 yards (7.6 avg) and a score. Their offense needs to stay rocking and moving the ball (10/16 63% on 3rd down) because Andrew Luck and the leagues best offense is up next. Luck has played some tough defenses this year, and the Bengals can be one more.  Luck has been one of the best passers in the league and proved it last week going 25/44 (57%) for 370 yards 3 TD’s and 1 pick.  They kept drives alive being 8/16 on 3rd down and getting 27 first downs (which is huge) while sucking up 14 more possession minutes than the Texans.  456 total yards is nothing to laugh at either as the Bengals have given up more yards on defense than their offense have been able to produce.  Indy being a 3 point favorite is Vegas’s way of saying they feel that the two teams are evenly matched and Vegas usually gives any home team that -3.  So basically they’re saying on a neutral field, it’s a pick’em game.  I don’t think so and am surprised the line went down to -3 Colts.  Take the Colts and that high powered offense to win with the points -3 and have the game score in the Over.  Food for thought, AJ Green will more than likely miss his 2nd straight week.  Colts 31-24.  Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Colts (-3)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bills -7. O/U: 43.5:
Teddy Bridgewater showed his rookie colors last week and it was rare to see a team like the Lions who generally don’t win road games outside of a dome. The Lions sacked him 8 times in his second start which helped them to just only 3/14 converted 3rd downs and all the while causing him to throw 3 picks! The line will have a similar game against the Bills defensive front but not like they did last week, Teddy will be scrambling a bit and his game will struggle. The Bills have found consistent QB play in Orton who was 24/38 (63%) for 299 yards, 2 TD’s and a pick. The score was what it was but if they have this offense week to week, they will win some games and against some decent teams. Take the Bills to win with the points and to score in the Under. Bills 24-17

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bears -3 O/U: 47.5:
This is an interesting lime for this game. Especially since the Bears went to Atlanta which has an awesome home record with Ryan at the helm and whipped them up 27-13. Yes the defense came out a little banged up but Cutler looked good, may have gained some confidence back in his ability to win big matchup games and will utilize his weapons more since he now has a strong and very healthy receiving corps. The Dolphins are back without Moreno for the rest of the year. Miller is a viable option for the running game, he has been for a few years but the NFL now-a-days, makes you use more backs in different situations. Tannehill wasn’t bad but wasn’t great. Yeah he dueled with Rodgers but in the end, he threw 2 picks and Rodgera didn’t. Turnovers win and lose you games, make them and you are staring down the barrel at a loss, cause them and you could be dominating someone all game for it. The Dolphins aren’t ready to play multiple decent games in a row plus it will be cold and windy. Tannehill isn’t the franchise guy the Dolphins hoped he would be. Take the Bears to win with the points in the Under, because both QBs will make mistakes and flip flop field advantages. Bears 27-17
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Dolphins (+3)

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions –1.5. O/U: 45.5
The Lions may be without Megatron for a bit but the defensive pressure is unreal, leading the league in sacks with 20. Brees and the Saints are a different team on the road and even in road domes. Don’t expect too much out of this offense with the Lions D in their faces. Take the Lions to win at home with the points and to score in the Under. Lions 24-20

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -6.5 O/U: 48.5
The Panthers are coming off a pretty good morale victory, going to Cincinnati and coming out with a 37-37 tie. The Panthers mustered 29 first downs, 2/2 on 4th down, 431 total yards and ran the ball for 147 yards on 34 carries averaging 4.3 yards per carry (mostly Cam running the ball). The defense caused Andy Daulton to throw 2 picks as well. The reason that the Panthers needed to go for it and make it on 2 4th downs was because they only converted on 8/17 3rd downs and had 8 penalties for 6o yards. They will need to go to Green Bay and will have to convert more 3rd downs and get 431 yards in regulation without the help of overtime. The issue is having Cam taking more carries, how will he hold up and be a consistent passer if he has to carry the ball 17 times? The Packers on the other hand, escaped the grip of the Miami heat and Dolphins defense. They barely won even after causing 3 turnovers. They say that heat in Miami changes good teams that aren’t used to playing in it, I thought it was a joke, it’s the real deal. The Packers showed up, kept the ball moving with 27 first downs, and still managed to be down until the very end of the game. The rushing game which blew up the stat sheet last week was pedestrian at best and Rodgers completion percentage was low but still managed 3 TD’s. The key question for Green Bay is how will their defense do against Cam? They faced 2 two-way quarterbacks the first 2 weeks and lost against one with weapons and won against one without. Bettors are very afraid of favorites giving 6.5 or more and rightfully so. 11-11 are favored teams giving 6.5 or more. In this one, take the Packers to win with the points and expect the score to go in the Over. Packers 34-24.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -3. O/U: 46
They say this is a trap bet due to Andy Reid and his record against the spread after a bye week. But the Chargers are a different team this year and are still undervalued. Take the Chargers to win with the points and to score in the Over, it may be a dog fight in Sam Diego today. Chargers 28-21. Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Chiefs (+4)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Raiders +3.5. O/U: 46.
Take the Cards in this one to win with the points and to score in the Over since Derrick Carr found his groove last week. Cardinals 28-24

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -5. O/U: 47
The Cowboys defense is better, causing turnovers, putting pressure on the QB. Romo found his groove and is healthy and is throwing darts. Giants lost Cruz and won’t be able to keep up as it was shown last week, getting shut out by the Eagles who don’t have a great D. Take the Cowboys to win with the points and in the Over. Cowboys 31-24
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Giants (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Broncos -6.5. O/U: 47.5
The Broncos usually have a line like this attached to their games but it shocks me that the road warriors like the 49ers drew this lime as well. Peyton might have a good game but he may throw it over 40 times to carry the team since San Fran will be stopping the run game. I say take the Broncos to win but the 49ers to cover in the Over. Broncos 31-28
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: 49ers (+6.5)

Week 4: Sunday Games Preview, Game and Spread Predictions

So I was completely wrong about Thursday nights game. The exact opposite happened and well, you win some and lose some. Btw, for-warning you, I started to write reviews for the games this week but was extremely busy towards the end of the week and got 2 lengthy ones done. The rest will be quick blurbs and my predictions with the spreads and overs/unders. I hope you understand.

Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders (London),
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -4. O/U: 41
Welcome to the game of bottom feeders. Both are reeling from loses last week but also trying to shake their persona this year of being a bad team. The Dolphins seem like they are trying to shake free of their “franchise ” QB. Reports have been that the Dolphins are starting to lose patience with Tannehill, who hasn’t been playing like a franchise QB since he was drafted. Now in his 3rd year, he still doesn’t look like he can lead them to the post season even with a guy like Mike Wallace as a legit deep threat and a half decent running game with Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller. Their defense hasn’t been too bad either so there is only one explanation, #17. At this point, Tannehill’s career numbers are the same averages as his predecessor Chad Henne, except Henne could drive the ball down field and averaged more yards per pass with less of a receiving corps. Tannehill gets the start Sunday but he was a whopping 21/43 last week and that’s not going to get it done if he plans on keeping his job. Oakland on the other hand doesn’t even have a running game they can rely on when the passing game isn’t working. MJD is hurt, DMC isn’t the back they hoped for, averaging 3 or less yards per run and they let Rashad Jennings go to the Giants who is now having a great start to his season. However, the Raiders take some sort of momentum into the game Sunday after keeping up with the Patriots last week. The Raiders only had 3 drives of 50 or more yards but none over 57 and 2 just had 50 yards. Outside of those 3 drives they had drives of 20, 26, 8, 29, 9, & 1 yard. They even started that 29 yard drive in Patriots territory. I hate hypotheticals but if they were to turn that 29 yard drive into a TD instead of the FG they got, we’re talking about a different game here, a 3 point game. So while both defenses were tough, the Raiders hung in there with one of the best teams in the league with, arguably, one of the best QB’s the league has ever seen. Their defense played well on the road, look for them to play well in London. Hopefully Carr will continue to improve and start making himself look like a gamer. Also take into account that the Raiders are in London already, and the Dolphins are still practicing in the states. For the Dolphins to come over so late, look for them to have some serious troubles adjusting once they land and start to prepare for the game. I think the Raiders win, easily covering the points +4 but in the Under. Raiders 24-10.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2 O/U: 51:
Aaron Rodgers sounded like his west coast, cool self when talking to his fans about the Packers slow 1-2 start. R-E-L-A-X chirped Rodgers. No time to relax when they have the Bears coming up next in Chicago. The last time these 2 met it was for the NFC North title and a playoff birth last year. The Packers miraculously came back and won in dramatic fashion. It will be tough for them Sunday, if they continue to bring their lackadaisical offense with them. The running game hasn’t been much this year to which they are relying on Aaron’s arm a little too much. Chicago who’s defense is in the bottom half of the league (15th best in passing allowed, 233/game & 26th in rushing allowed, 144.7/game). Maybe this will be the game Green Bay gets their act together offensively and rack up some yards. The Pack have the 28th best offense, but with Charles Tillman out for the Bears, look for the Pack to finally R-E-L-A-X and get back to winning. Take the Pack to win with the points, -2, and in the Over. Packers 31-24

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Texans –3.5. O/U: 40.5:
This will be painless. Fitzpatrick showed he can still do things with his arm, having his first 250+ yard game this year (289). He still threw 3 picks though. The Texans defense will trouble EJ so much that they implode. The Bills and Texans haven’t been that great either in their 3 games, who both showed their true colors last week. Take the Texans at home with the points, in the Over. Texans 24-17.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts -7.5. O/U: 46:
Locker is out for the Titans so Charlie Whitehurst gets the nod. The Colts tore up a bad team in The Jags last week in Jacksonville. luck set a career high in completion percentage with 79.5% while throwing for 370 yards and 4 TDs. Look for much of the same in this one especially being in Indy. Take the Colts with the points to blow out the Titans in the Over. Colts 31-17.

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 40.5:
Steve Smith Sr gets a chance to show his old team why they shouldn’t have let him go so easily. He’s been a big deep threat for Flacco early in the season. Cam shows that he didn’t need a top paid receiver to do well, as his new fav is Kelvin Benjamin. It will be a tough and physical game. Look for the Ravens to shut down the Panthers non existent run game and force Cam into mistakes. Ravens will take this one at home but take the Panthers for the points in the Over. Ravens 24-21.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 1 p.m. FOX. Line: Steelers -7.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Buccs are still having trouble getting any consistent play from the QB position. They’ve had limited success from their RB Rainey but he is prone to fumbling. The Steelers have found a gem in Le’Veon Bell who leads the AFC with 305 yards rushing and average per carry of 5.9. Blount gives a great compliment option who can break out for big yardage as well. Take the Steelers to pound the Buccs with the points in the Over. Steelers 31-17.

Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions – 1.5. O/U: 45:
The Lions are a totally different team on the road. That has carried over from the last few years. The Jets have had a tough schedule so far this year. Sunday won’t be any different. Geno is in charge of the offense but still needs to make better decisions in tough spots. There will be some offensive troubles in this one. The Jets will have a hard time handling the offense the Lions will drop on the,. Take the Lions to win with the points in the Under. Lions 24-17.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -13. O/U: 44.5:
The Jags pulled Chad Henne and altered their Blake Bortles plan by putting him in and starting him Sunday. Bortles looked fairly good in relief duty throwing for 223 yards, 2 TDs, 2 picks. Phillip Rivers has had a great start throwing 913 yards, 7 TDs and just 2 picks. The Jags have a new starter but that won’t help all of the yards their defense gives up. The spread is just too big, so take the Chargers to win in the Over but take the Jags for the spread. Chargers 31-20.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons –2.5. O/U: 47:
The Vikes also put their rookie in last week but due to injury to Cassel (broken foot). Adrian Peterson. Is still out but Asiata has been a decent fill in. The Falcons also seem to have the road bug the Lions do, losing their only road game in terrible fashion. Matt Ryan won’t have another tough road game this week and will lead the Falcons to a road win with the points and but in the Under. Falcons 28-17.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: 49ers -4.5. O/U: 50.5:
The Eagles get a tough test on the road against a very strong Niners defense. The Eagles has a hard time getting into a groove and keeping it all game long. The Eagles have had a tough time getting the run game going which will continue to struggle Sunday. The Niners will take advantage of that and after losing to the Cardinals last week, and the Bears the week before, you better believe that Harbaugh won’t let them get into his first 3 game losing streak since taking over. Extra motivation because of that will get a 49er win with the points and in the Under. 49ers 31-17.

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Saints -3. O/U: 53:
The Saints could easily have been 3-0 but have not held offenses well. This may be much of the same, allowing a bunch of points. The Saints don’t particularly cover spreads on the road so easily but Dallas has issues on offense that tends to stall for big stretches during games. They barely pulled off a win against the reeling Rams. Look for the Saints to hit a grove and finally prove that the Cowboys defense has been a fluke. Take the Saints to win with the points in the Over. Saints 35-27.

Check out the blog tomorrow for my Monday night game prediction a preview. Good luck everyone.