Tag: American Football

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Throwdown

Back for the 2015 season. It’s been another long offseason with many news topics that have been discussed and there’s usually one that beats the dead horse and this year it involves the high profiled QB Tom Brady and “deflategate”. Well, it all turned out to be much to do about nothing and his 4 game suspension was over-ruled to which he will be starting the season opener tonight. The Steelers have also had some issues with star players getting into trouble but the suspensions actually sticking, seeing Martavis Bryant out with a 4 game suspension as well as Le’Veon Bell’s 2 games, who coincidentally was with former teammate, now Patriot, LeGarrette Blount, who is also dealing with a suspension of his own.

Nevertheless, the season is upon us, let football begin!

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TV: NBC @ 8:30 p.m.; LINE: Patriots -7.5, O/U 52:

Both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions, luckily for the Pats, Brady avoided his. Now with all eyes, ears and hands all over the Patriots, this will be a huge kickoff (highly rated) for the NFL with all of the surrounding controversy and attention that the Pats have found themselves in this year already. Brady will be ever prepared, as he always is but don’t look for this one to be a high scoring contest. The light rain they are having will start the game off slow and these two defenses aren’t half bad either. Yes, Wilfork is gone and is now pretending to be a kicker during practices with the Texans but the defensive front will still be strong. Troy Polamalu is now retired after acknowledging losing some steps in his game over the last few years. This defense in some ways is younger now so look for them to play refreshed but don’t be surprised with some mistakes sprinkled in. With the new extra point rules, it’ll be interesting to see if the coaches use different strategies in this wet affair. Both quarterbacks are great game managers so there will be no rushing anything.  They both know they can’t allow mistakes to happen since the other will capitalize on them.  No underinflated balls will be helping Tom win this one but look for the Steelers to keep it close. Patriots 24-20.

Check back for a preview of Sunday’s picks! Good luck!

Betting lines provided by Bovada

Week 7: Monday Night Mash-up

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Steelers -3. O/U: 44.5:

The Texans go into Pittsburgh on a 2 game skid. They are 1-2 on the road and the offense has been all ground game and Arian Foster. Fitzpatrick has shown leadership in close games and has shown he can sustain some long drives but isn’t going to have that massive 300 yard game. The defense has helped but it is not dominating like everyone thought it would be. Yes, Clowney went out early in the season but they practically have the same defensive line as last year and have only 10 sacks with Watt having 4 of them. They have games with 1 or none and they dumped a ton of money on Watt and a 1st overall, 1st round draft pick on Clowney. There is a possibility that Clowney may return tonight but if he does, how effective will he be and how much will we see him?

The Steelers are 25-2 on Monday night at home and 8-0 of those at Heinz Field. However the Steelers haven’t been that impressive, especially their defense. They are older, slower and can’t hang with the young speedy receivers that are beating them. Big Ben has been picking it up since weeks 3, 4, 5 but hit a wall last week against the Browns. Speaking of Brown, Antonio Brown has been their star catching 5 of Ben’s 8 TD’s. The two-headed rushing monster of Bell and Blount in the back field has helped. The offense ranks 8th in passing and 4th in rushing but are 31st in the league in the red zone. The Offense is there, the defense is not. The defense will have a hard time against the Texans rush game. Watt will have a tough time getting to Ben but if he does he will have a doubly hard time bringing him down.

Take the Steelers to win with the points, and this one will score in the Over because neither defense is overpowering. Steelers 27-21

Colin Cowherd went 3-2 yesterday and yes, it turns out that the Chiefs/Chargers game was a trap bet and we now know that the 49ers can’t fill major defensive players’ roles with more than 2 defensive stars being out, I thought they would.

MATCHUP SPREAD (H) WISE GUYS AGREE W/L/P HERD’S RECORD WISE GUYS
Bengals @ Colts (-3) -3 Y W 20-12 18-14
Dolphins (+3) @ Bears -3 Y W 21-12 19-14
Giants (+6.5) @ Cowboys -6.5 Y L 21-13 19-15
Chiefs (+4) @ Chargers -4 Y W 22-13 20-15
49ers (+6.5) @ Broncos -6.5 Y L 22-14 20-16

Week 7: Sunday Picks and Colin Cowherd with the Sharps

EDIT NOTE: I updated the point spread since Covers.com was down late last night and early this morning. My Picks will stay the same.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Ravens -7. O/U: 49.5:
Hey Falcons, nice game last week. They rarely lose at home and I mentioned their record last week and they crumbled on me. Atlanta is just morbid on the road, last week shocked me and with a line this big, I can’t see them losing by 7, i can see them losing by 10 or more. They lost by 10 or more the last 3 outside away games, winless on the road and just can’t move the ball effectively. It was an embarrassing loss at home and I don’t see the team recovering. The run game is bad which forces Ryan to throw more which has made him less consistent, just over 50% completions last week. The defense isn’t stopping anyone either. Bail bail bail. The Ravens on the other hand have a half decent offense and can actually run without Ray Rice, which no one saw working this well. Last week they jumped out to a 38-0 lead at the half and lead 28-0 after the first quarter. Flacco was on point early with 4 of his 5 TD passes coming in the first quarter, going 21/29 72% 306 yards 10.6 yards per pass attempt 14.6 per completion and 5 TD’s and 0 picks. That is a heck of a day for any quarterback and most of the rest of the game, the Ravens ran the ball and still racked up 169 yards on 35 carries, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and a score. Ravens are hot, the spread is not, I hate the favorite giving 6.5 to 7 points. However, you can’t deny how bad the Falcons are on the road in an open stadium and the Ravens are hot. Take the Ravens to win with the points but in the Under. Ravens 31-17

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Redskins -6. O/U: 46:
Jake Locker is still questionable to play, Whitehurst can do everything Locker does except he may not get hurt so easily. Both have roughly the same completion percentage and yardage. I don’t consider neither of them to be competent long term starters but can get the job done from time to time. The issue for the Titans is that their 2 quarterbacks are helping the team average 228 yards a game while the rushing game is a brighter spot but still only averaging 67 yards between the rookie Sankey and veteran Greene but averaging as a team about 116 per game. Don’t expect too much with either QB in, as the Redskins defense have been terrorizing opposing QB’s. The defense for the Skins has held up through the awful 1-5 start but have stayed in some games but it’s tough to do when the defense spends more time on the field than your offense just about every game because the offense turns the ball over a ton. The turnover differential is probably the root as to what has help this team spiral out of control. They have given the ball up 13 times and have only taken it away 4 times. The defense plays well early in games and can reach the QB early but when they are on the field more than the offense and are behind in games, the defense fails and gets tired. They still however are the 5th best offense in terms of yards but Cousins needs to not turn the ball over so much to take leads and keep them. It’s a battle of 2 bad teams and you can’t trust neither of them even with home field advantage. I will however go with the better defense and more explosive offense. Take the Redskins to win with the points, but it will score in the Under. Redskins 24-14.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, LINE: Seahawks -7 O/U: 43.5:
This game is a very interesting one. Austin Davis has looked really good filling in for the injured Sam Bradford and the Seahawks just got beat at their house by America’s Team. The Rams are winless at home but not for lack of effort or blowouts but stared some really good teams dead in the eyes and went toe to toe all four quarters with them. They went back to back weeks in the NFC East with the Cowboys and Eagles and lost by 3 after leading at the half to the ‘Boys and damn near came back on the Eagles posting 14 points in the 4th and holding the Eagles to 0 in the same quarter. Last week it was the 49ers in which they had a 14-10 lead at the half. Their issue is just maintaining consistency through all four quarters. Confidence has to be there. They have the 7th best passing game in the league and the defense being pieced together through injuries has stood up well enough to keep the team in it each game. The Seahawks were caught napping last week and don’t let that final 30-23 score fool you, it was a dominating game for the Cowboys. Without the blocked punt returned for a TD, you’re talking 30-16 with just one lonely offensive touchdown either way. The Hawks were severely beat in TOP by about 15 minutes and only converted 5/13 (39%) 3rd downs and could only turn out 9 first downs and only 209 total yards. This can’t continue and an embarrassment like that is what motivates a team, especially with a defense like the Hawks. The Seahawks have only one way to go, up and they will get a fight trying to get back on track. Again, I hate to give team a TD to start the game especially at home, so you have to think about how worthy your pick in this game would be and maybe look into the record of the Hawks the last couple of years giving up 6.5-7 points. I still think the Hawks will win but Seattle is a different team, mostly on offense, on the road so they win but the Rams cover the spread +7 and this game will score in the Over. Seahawks 24-21.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, . LINE: Browns -4 O/U: 44.5:
Blake Bortles showed some growth, control and consistency last week all while only throwing 1 pick compared to his 2 average per game. He almost pulled out their first win of the year, albeit a bad team, but looked much better. I’m still torn on wether or not he or Chad Henne gives the team a better chance to win each week given the lack of experience from Bortles and how similarly their stats look. Chad usually throws as many picks as TD’s but is 3-1 TD-INT’s this year and had a banged up receiving core this year. The browns are scrappy. Hoyer’s won’t pop out at you as amazing but he gets the job done. Last week he completed about half of his passes but had 200+ yards on 8 completions for over 25+ yards per completion! which is awesome. The Browns keep games close on limiting mistakes. They’ve turned the ball over 5 times but have only caused 2 on their defense. They complete less than 40% of their 3rd downs but do remember that they played some good defenses, The Steelers twice, the Ravens and Titans before their free fall. The Jags are no pushovers themselves and will put up a fight. Cleveland isn’t a team I ever imagined getting a line like this and it’s tough to take them. Take the Browns to win but the Jags on the points and this game will score in the Under. Browns 17-14.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts –3 O/U: 50.5:
Last week I made the mistake with sticking with my guns on the Bengals covering almost a TD against Cam’s Panthers even though AJ Green was kept out of the game. I will not make that same mistake this week. When you think of Marvin Lewis, you think a great defensive team. The past 2 weeks they’ve allowed 80 points and 936 yards! The team committed 13 penalties for 113 yards, Daulton threw 2 picks. They did stay in the game without their star WR, Daulton still played a good game (33/43 77% 323 yards and 2 TD’s) utilizing Sanu on the outside for 10 grabs, 120 yards and a TD, and had some help on the ground with Bernard carrying the rock 18 times for 137 yards (7.6 avg) and a score. Their offense needs to stay rocking and moving the ball (10/16 63% on 3rd down) because Andrew Luck and the leagues best offense is up next. Luck has played some tough defenses this year, and the Bengals can be one more.  Luck has been one of the best passers in the league and proved it last week going 25/44 (57%) for 370 yards 3 TD’s and 1 pick.  They kept drives alive being 8/16 on 3rd down and getting 27 first downs (which is huge) while sucking up 14 more possession minutes than the Texans.  456 total yards is nothing to laugh at either as the Bengals have given up more yards on defense than their offense have been able to produce.  Indy being a 3 point favorite is Vegas’s way of saying they feel that the two teams are evenly matched and Vegas usually gives any home team that -3.  So basically they’re saying on a neutral field, it’s a pick’em game.  I don’t think so and am surprised the line went down to -3 Colts.  Take the Colts and that high powered offense to win with the points -3 and have the game score in the Over.  Food for thought, AJ Green will more than likely miss his 2nd straight week.  Colts 31-24.  Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Colts (-3)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bills -7. O/U: 43.5:
Teddy Bridgewater showed his rookie colors last week and it was rare to see a team like the Lions who generally don’t win road games outside of a dome. The Lions sacked him 8 times in his second start which helped them to just only 3/14 converted 3rd downs and all the while causing him to throw 3 picks! The line will have a similar game against the Bills defensive front but not like they did last week, Teddy will be scrambling a bit and his game will struggle. The Bills have found consistent QB play in Orton who was 24/38 (63%) for 299 yards, 2 TD’s and a pick. The score was what it was but if they have this offense week to week, they will win some games and against some decent teams. Take the Bills to win with the points and to score in the Under. Bills 24-17

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bears -3 O/U: 47.5:
This is an interesting lime for this game. Especially since the Bears went to Atlanta which has an awesome home record with Ryan at the helm and whipped them up 27-13. Yes the defense came out a little banged up but Cutler looked good, may have gained some confidence back in his ability to win big matchup games and will utilize his weapons more since he now has a strong and very healthy receiving corps. The Dolphins are back without Moreno for the rest of the year. Miller is a viable option for the running game, he has been for a few years but the NFL now-a-days, makes you use more backs in different situations. Tannehill wasn’t bad but wasn’t great. Yeah he dueled with Rodgers but in the end, he threw 2 picks and Rodgera didn’t. Turnovers win and lose you games, make them and you are staring down the barrel at a loss, cause them and you could be dominating someone all game for it. The Dolphins aren’t ready to play multiple decent games in a row plus it will be cold and windy. Tannehill isn’t the franchise guy the Dolphins hoped he would be. Take the Bears to win with the points in the Under, because both QBs will make mistakes and flip flop field advantages. Bears 27-17
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Dolphins (+3)

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions –1.5. O/U: 45.5
The Lions may be without Megatron for a bit but the defensive pressure is unreal, leading the league in sacks with 20. Brees and the Saints are a different team on the road and even in road domes. Don’t expect too much out of this offense with the Lions D in their faces. Take the Lions to win at home with the points and to score in the Under. Lions 24-20

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -6.5 O/U: 48.5
The Panthers are coming off a pretty good morale victory, going to Cincinnati and coming out with a 37-37 tie. The Panthers mustered 29 first downs, 2/2 on 4th down, 431 total yards and ran the ball for 147 yards on 34 carries averaging 4.3 yards per carry (mostly Cam running the ball). The defense caused Andy Daulton to throw 2 picks as well. The reason that the Panthers needed to go for it and make it on 2 4th downs was because they only converted on 8/17 3rd downs and had 8 penalties for 6o yards. They will need to go to Green Bay and will have to convert more 3rd downs and get 431 yards in regulation without the help of overtime. The issue is having Cam taking more carries, how will he hold up and be a consistent passer if he has to carry the ball 17 times? The Packers on the other hand, escaped the grip of the Miami heat and Dolphins defense. They barely won even after causing 3 turnovers. They say that heat in Miami changes good teams that aren’t used to playing in it, I thought it was a joke, it’s the real deal. The Packers showed up, kept the ball moving with 27 first downs, and still managed to be down until the very end of the game. The rushing game which blew up the stat sheet last week was pedestrian at best and Rodgers completion percentage was low but still managed 3 TD’s. The key question for Green Bay is how will their defense do against Cam? They faced 2 two-way quarterbacks the first 2 weeks and lost against one with weapons and won against one without. Bettors are very afraid of favorites giving 6.5 or more and rightfully so. 11-11 are favored teams giving 6.5 or more. In this one, take the Packers to win with the points and expect the score to go in the Over. Packers 34-24.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -3. O/U: 46
They say this is a trap bet due to Andy Reid and his record against the spread after a bye week. But the Chargers are a different team this year and are still undervalued. Take the Chargers to win with the points and to score in the Over, it may be a dog fight in Sam Diego today. Chargers 28-21. Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Chiefs (+4)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Raiders +3.5. O/U: 46.
Take the Cards in this one to win with the points and to score in the Over since Derrick Carr found his groove last week. Cardinals 28-24

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -5. O/U: 47
The Cowboys defense is better, causing turnovers, putting pressure on the QB. Romo found his groove and is healthy and is throwing darts. Giants lost Cruz and won’t be able to keep up as it was shown last week, getting shut out by the Eagles who don’t have a great D. Take the Cowboys to win with the points and in the Over. Cowboys 31-24
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: Giants (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Broncos -6.5. O/U: 47.5
The Broncos usually have a line like this attached to their games but it shocks me that the road warriors like the 49ers drew this lime as well. Peyton might have a good game but he may throw it over 40 times to carry the team since San Fran will be stopping the run game. I say take the Broncos to win but the 49ers to cover in the Over. Broncos 31-28
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Pick: 49ers (+6.5)

Week 6: Monday Night Mash Up

San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: 49ers -3. O/U: 44:

All of the talk about Jim Harbaugh not getting along with upper management and possible locker room issues because of his style of coaching, it hasn’t slowed the team down much. They are still performing and winning. Kaepernick after the Chiefs game stated that he would go to war for him any day of the week. If you have the leader of the team in your corner (at least to the media) then to me that means the team at least respects what his expectations of the team are. Speaking of coaching, is Jeff Fisher who lost his leader (Sam Bradford) and top defensive lineman (Chris Long), has had some close games recently and almost beat a Cowboys team a few weeks ago that just beat the Seahawks in Seattle! That is saying a lot about Austin Davis. Yes, he is virtually a rookie given that this season he ahs seen his first regular season action but he’s held his own. In each game he has improved the yards he’s thrown for and went the first 2 weeks with no TD’s but has thrown 6 in the last 2 while only throwing 3 total INT’s all year. They beat Tamps, lead most of the Cowboy game and nearly game back to beat the Eagles last week. Don’t sleep on them especially since he is completing almost 68% of his passes and has had back to back 300 yard games! They may not have faced top tier defenses but don’t be surprised if they hang in there with the 49ers. The 49ers on the other hand, have suffered in the passing game and have been relying on the feet of Gore and Kaep. The Running game is averaging 145 yards per game which is 4th in the league. Those 2 have averaged 4.7 and 4.8 yards per carry and throwing the 3rd team leading rusher, Carlos Hyde, in there, he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry. There issue is getting the ball into the end zone. They have just 10 total TD’s on offense and that’s partly due to only completing 47% of their 3rd downs, not keeping their drives alive. They have the players to make the plays but Kaep hasn’t been playing like the last 2 years, only averaging just over 200 yards per game. In a head to head matchup, take the 49ers. The spread is a little scary because you would think that the 49ers could win this one easily but Austin Davis has come around and played very well the last few weeks. I still would take the 49ers to win with the points -3 and to score in the Over. If it’s close, I think they still find a way to win. The funny thing is last year these 2 played 9/26/13 in St. Louis and the line was virtually the same; the 49ers covered the points and scored in the Over (35-11). 49ers 28-24.

If you didn’t check on Colin Cowherd’s picks, he had just his 2nd losing week of the 6 so far. He’s still picking 61% (19-12) on his picks to 58% (52-38) on mine but I am picking all games to his selective 5. He picks some tough ones but some softies to choose from as well.

Week 6: Sunday NFL Games

It’s been a theme this year, a tale of 2 halves of football. Last week, half of my picks were covering the spread in the first half. Some started off slow but won with their second half play and some gave up that halftime lead by the end of the game. I had to just give my predictions without analysis with the last bunch of games because I was running out of time before kickoff. I will do better going forward for you but I just had my first week at my new job and I’m trying to acclimate to my new hours for writing this blog but here’s a cookie, I threw in Colin Cowherd’s picks at the end. Here’s my week 6 picks:

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 54.5:
Devin Hester gets a visit from his former team this week and he hasn’t been silent about the way he feels he was treated his last few years with the Bears. Hester felt that he needed to be implemented more in the Bears offense. This year with the Falcons, he’s been in the game plan but also has to share touches with Roddy White and Julio Jones. He’s had breakout games against the Saints and Vikings and in numerous ways against the Buccs. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday but I’d put my money on him playing, and not missing any game against the Bears. His team however is slumping. Atlanta has lost their last 2 games, both on the road and are 2-3 overall (all losses from road games). Matty Ice has ice running through his veins for home games. They are so good at home, it’s hard to look past So they’re due for a win right? The Bears are also 2-3 but have had their 2 wins come on the road with their first road loss coming at the hands of the Panthers last week. They too are on a 2 game skid and questions are swirling around weather Cutler is the guy to take them where they want to go. Last week Cutler showed more inconsistent playmaking decisions with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble on a fine passing day, completing 78% of his throws for 289 yards and 2 TD’s. The theme of the year for most middle of the pack teams has been that they can play 1 half of great football and have the lead after the half or comeback and win but haven’t been able to put a whole game together. These 2 teams have that issue. This is really the matchup of 2 quarterbacks. One is viewed as elite (Ryan) and the other has his fan base crumbling belief in him that he can bring home a deep playoff run (Cutler). Look for the Falcons to start off quick, since Ryan plays his best football in the first quarter (78% completion percentage lifetime) and Cutler doesn’t really get going until the 3rd quarter, where he has his best completion percentage lifetime (63%). You also can’t ignore Matty’s home record of 40-10 in his career, including this years home games and 20-5 following a loss. It will be a tough one for the Falcons but the Bears are reeling as well and have to try and recover from the current 2 game skid on the road in a tough venue, the Georgia Dome. I would take the Falcons however, to win with the points and in the Over. Falcons 31-24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans -4.5. O/U: 42.5:
The line history on this game tells you a lot about how unsure Vegas is with this game. They want to say that they think the Jags will get their first win against another terrible team but Bortles has thrown 2 picks each game he’s played. For it to swing from -7 to -4 to -4.5 back to -4 for the Titans, while not adjusting due to a star player being injured, just shows that they may be making this bet look too wild for many to bet on. That is probably because they want to favor the home team (Titans) but think the Jags can pull off a win especially covering the spread if it’s reasonable. That being said, neither team has played well, but Bortles seems to be coming around slowly (minus the 2 picks he seems to throw every game). He was able to hook up with 9 different receivers which shows that he is still trying to find someone to groove with and mesh with as his go to guy. The defense however, has picked it up. They only allowed the Steelers to score 17 points, recorded 4 sacks, held them on 8/16 3rd downs, and the tandem of Poslusny/Cyprien accounted for 23 tackles and a sack, 34% of the teams 67 tackles. Their main issue is the non existent run game. The Titans, outside of their week oem win, has been horrible. Last week they seemed to pick it up offensively but Locker left the game and didn’t return in the 2nd quarter. The Titans scored all of their 28 points in the first half and lead by 25 at one point, probably the best half they’ve played all year. But them game isn’t won by the half and the Browns made the necessary adjustments to come from behind and win it. Look, the Titans probably will have Whitehurst in and half allowed on average, 32 points per game. That’s a ton of points and I think the Jags can pull out at least 14 and hold the Titans with their beastly defense. Take the Jags to win with the points and take the Under. Jags 21-20.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3.5. O/U: 43.5:
Well the Buccs seem to have turned the ship in the right direction with the QB change. Not many people thought they’d keep it close in the Superdome against the Saints, me included. They kept a bunch of drives going with their 20 first downs while they caused 3 Saints turnovers, all Drew Bree’s INT’s. Some quick fixes are needed for them to win games like converting on 3rd down (just 3/9 or 33% last week), 15 penalties for 113 yards, which is an unreal figure and probably took away their win right there and having 10:30 minutes time of possession LESS than the Saints. Fixing that and Vincent Jackson having another amazing game like last week (4 rec – 144 yards) will keep them in close games like this last week. The Ravens did a lot of things that can win you football games last week like causing 4 turnovers, averaging 6 yards per carry, and having a punter do work averaging 48.4 yards per punt on 5 punts. But they really shot themselves in the foot by their own turnovers (2 fumbles lost and a pick), allowing Indy to keep the ball for a crazy 38:43, and only completing 1/3 4th down attempts because they could only muster up completing 1/11 3rd down attempts. That’s just pitiful! Flacco has to play better (22/38, 58%, 235 yards, 0 TD’s/1 INT), and they need to run it more to control the clock better. They had 2 running backs with just 10 carries but rattled off 72 yards and a score (Forsett 6-42 & TD, Pierce 4-30). The line has to be better though for Flacco, giving up 4 sacks for a total of 38 yards doesn’t help either. They are 3-2 and need to turn it around which they do against the Buccs but it will be a tougher game than some will imagine. Take the Ravens to win and cover the spread but barely and in the Under. Ravens 21-17.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10 O/U: 47.5:
Geno’s time in New York is on a rocky patch but when Vick came in (which the fans were calling for), they were probably wishing Geno was back in. Not good for Rex Ryan if he can’t find a QB to win games. Geno probably shouldn’t have been started all of last year but Sanchez was injured and on the rocks with his play as well at the time but you want a guy in there that gives you the best chance to win. Mistakes and inconsistency will result in another benching, can he stand up the pressure that is the Broncos and keep up with the scoring? I tell you what, 11 first downs and being 1/12 on 3rd downs aren’t going to cut it, ever! Would you put your money on that? Maybe their defense but they won’t withstand 60 minutes of Peyton. Denver’s defense even made an appearance last week, holding the Cardinals to just 9 first downs, 3/16 on 3rd downs and only allowed 215 total yards! The offense was pretty amazing as usual, holding the ball for over 35 minutes, 568 total yards, and 24 first downs. Peyton alone threw for 31/47 (66%) 479 4 TD’s but also 2 picks, but anytime Peyton has a game like this, expect the scoring to be plentiful and the blowout to be on. They didn’t need to run much but when they did, they averaged 3.3 per run with 3 different carriers averaging 4 yards or more. D-Thomas had a blazing game as well, 8 catches for 226 (28.2) and 2 scores, with his compliment Emmanuel Sanders catching 7 for 101 (14.4) and Julius Thomas hauling in 6 for 66 (11.0) and the other 2 scores, just an outstanding receiving core that are on fire and give Peyton so many options to choose from and by the way, you didn’t see Welker on there who caught 7 for 58 yards. 3 receivers over 6 catches and 50 yards each! Wrapping your mind around that is hard because it’s unheard of. The line on this game opened in some places at 5 or 6 went to as high as 10.5 to 10 to 9.5 back to 10. Those swings just tell you to stay away from games that throw a game around like that. The Sharps don’t know what to make of the Jets since they were shutout last week 31-0 and the offense just laid down. However, this is the 3rd best pass offense in the league going against the worst pass defense in the league. Take the Broncos to win, to cover and to score at least 35 to help this one score in the Over. It will be a blow out. Broncos 38-20.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings –2.5. O/U: 43:
This is a tough one because Teddy Bridgewater is back and this will be a first look for the Lions at him. The last time the Vikes were at home with Teddy at the helm, it was an upset over the Falcons. The running game for the Vikes can do damage but they are going against one of the better run games in the league (3rd) and a pretty decent pass defense (6th). The Lions seem to be very different on the road but against the Vikings in 8 career games, Stafford has one of his better TD/INT ratios and completes about 64% of his passes against them. The big question is how will he do without Calvin Johnson in the lineup. He was listed as doubtful with his week 5 ankle injury and is expected to miss this game. That opens the door for opportunity for Teddy. I think he puts a double threat on the Lions that they haven’t really faced this year and being fresh from sitting out last week will help. They will pound the ball on the ground but not as effective as previous games and will make it a game. Having just a 2.5 point line helps me make up my mind on this one. If you got the line earlier in the week, the Lions were giving up about 1.5 points but with Johnson most likely sitting, that line flip flops so I hope you locked it in when the Vikes were 1.5 point dogs. I still think they win at home and cover the -2.5 point spread but in the Under. Vikings 20-17.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Patriots -2.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Pats line is still recovering from injuries and they are wondering who will be snapping Brady the ball. The hardest thing to do is handle the ball in between players especially snapping the ball with QB and new center. I’m sure there was extra practice all week on it but I’m going to say that the over/under on snapping blunders will be over 1. The Bills have re-found their confidence under the helm of Kyle Orton. He’s been able to give the Bills a consistent passing game like they haven’t seen with EJ Manuel. Orton has a 69.8 completion percentage and going against the 3rd best pass defense in the league, it will be tough but if anything, count him in for being consistent. He’s looked for a starting opportunity which is what brought him out of retirement and he’s got his chance and will continue to make the most of it this week against bitter rivals (bitter due to being 2-10 last 12 home games against the Pats). Sammy Watkins looked good last week with 7 catches for 84 yards. He will score a TD this week against the Pats, the Bills will be keeping this one close because they really want to beat Tom Brady. The Bills are 2nd best in the league against the run; the Pats are 14th in the run offense. Tom will get hit and pressured. Take the Bills to cover the points and to win given that this is probably their best opportunity to pull off a win against the Pats in the last decade. This game will score in the Over. Bills 24-21.

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bengals -7. O/U: 43.5:
The Bengals have covered 11 straight home games ATS by an average of 12 points! AJ Green was a last minute scratch but I’ll stick to my guns since the line hasn’t moved.   Take the Bengals to win but giving up a TD to Cam is too much so take the Panthers to cover in the Over. Bengals 27-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Browns -1. O/U: 47:
Close game as far as points but the Browns want revenge from the week 1 thrilling loss. Take the Browns to win at home with the -1 point and to score in the Under. Browns 24-21.

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -2.5. O/U: 49:
Experts are saying the heat in Miami may make a difference in this one and if your betting on the heat helping the Dolphins and not betting on the Dolphins to try and win, then you need to rethink your betting strategies. Packers take this one easily over a weak Fins team and big. Take the Pack -2.5, it may even move to 2 before kickoff and to score in the Under. Packer 28-20.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -7. O/U: 43.5:
Chargers will be too strong, I don’t like taking TD spreads but the Raiders are baaaad. Chargers 31-17.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks -8.5. O/U: 47:
Cowboys are not getting any credit in this one with an +8.5 underdog spread! That’s nuts. Romo is back, the line is doing a great job and they will keep it close in the always tough Seattle. I was close to calling an upset alert but you can’t go against the 12th man. Take the Seahawks to win but the ‘Boys to cover the +8.5 point spread in the Over. Seahawks 31-24.

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -5 O/U: 45.5:
The Redskins will bounce back this week. They actually kept the game with Seattle last week within range. the Cardinals got beat up a bit by the Broncos last week and the Redskins D will keep pressure on Stanton. Take the Redskins to win with the points as well +5, and in the Under. Redskins 24-20.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Eagles -2.5. O/U: 50.5:
Eagles offense isn’t what it was last year. They are getting outscored and seem to only really play 1 half of football. The Giants have gotten much better since their first 2 weeks. This will be a good one. Still, 4-1 is 4-1, the Eagles seem to find a way to win and at home in prime time, take the Eagles to win and cover the -2.5 spread and to score in the Over. Eagles 30-27.

Colin Cowherd made his picks Friday and doesn’t like one of them and these are his lines:

Bears +3, Bengals -6.5, Giants +3, Dolphins +3.5, Chargers -7 (he doesn’t like the Chargers game).  The Sharps disagreed with the Bengals and Chargers picks.

Good betting everyone.

Week 6: Thursday Night Throw Around

Indianapolis-Colts-vs-Houston-Texans-16th-Dec-2012-300x148Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 46.5:

Mr. Luck has been anything but lucky…he’s been flat out great! He is leading the league in Yards (1,617), TD’s (14) and INT’s (6) interestingly enough. He leads the leagues best offensive pass game, averaging 321.8 yards per game. The Colts at home did a lot of things right, 26 1st downs, over 17 minutes more of time of possession (which is almost unreal), total yards, but also turnovers. Bradshaw had been a surprising bright spot in their offense. He had dealt with a bunch of injuries with the Giants that everyone felt it would continue in Indy. Trent Richardson still looks like he’ll be a bust but Bradshaw has taken a bit of that sting away with his play. Giving Luck that run option opens up the play book for more read option, play action type plays. This shows in Luck’s numbers. As long as Bradshaw stays healthy, Luck stays hot.

The Texans aren’t that simple. Last week they kept it close and almost pulled out a win against the Cowboys. To no surprise though, Fitzpatrick was mediocre, didn’t throw over 160 yards, no TD’s and threw a pick. The difference between a blow out and a 3 point OT loss was Adrian Foster. Over 150 yards, 2 TD’s, while averaging 6.8 yards per carry which is awesome. If the Texans can get the ground game moving early and control the clock, we might have another close one on our hands. Adrian Foster looks like he did a few years ago and has momentum. Look for him to have a good night.

However, take the Colts giving -3 points in the same weather/stadium conditions as in Indy to win and score in the Over. Colts 28-24.

Week 5 Monday Mashup

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Seahawks -7 O/U: 45.5:

This should be a gimme for the Seahawks but don’t over think this one because Seattle is on the road.  They may have been bad on the road in the past but this year in their one road game (yes they lost) but they scored a bunch of points and played against a rejuvenated Phillip Rivers.  They are surprisingly mediocre in the pass defense (19th) but 2nd against the rush.  They will look to bounce back against a recently shaky Kirk Cousins.  Now the Redskins have racked up the yards on offense, mainly the pass game but it’s the turnovers that has contributed to their 1-3 start.  The question is will Cousins keep turning it up on the Hawks passing D or will the defense force Cousins into more turnovers. With the line of an even -7 for the Seahawks on the road, that may scare bettors into going with the Skins but take the Hawks and the Over.  The Redskins were embarrassed last week at home against a previously terrible Giants, bet on them playing hard tonight to redeem themselves but Seattle is too good of a team.   Seahawks 28-20.

Week 5 Sunday Games: Preview and Predictions

Well, I hate to sound like a homer but the Pack blew up Ponders return start in a huge fashion. Not to mention that the running game got on track finally. This wee
k is off to a good start and this picks Sunday, will prove it. To week 5 Sunday’s game action.

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -2.5. O/U: 45.5:
Both teams were embarrassed last week. The Bears were embarrassed because they couldn’t put up more points with all of the first downs, yards and the long drives they had from all of the yards they racked up. The Panthers got torched by their old #1 WR, Steve Smith Sr., who they let go due to wanting to free up cap (that’s their reason). Both defenses allowed over 300+ passing yards but the Bears are ranked 22nd in yardage allowed, Panthers are 23rd. Their offenses rank about as well as their defenses however the offensive advantage goes to the Bears. Not only does the offensive experience go to the Bears, the defensive advantage does as well. The Bears defense only allowed 3 drives over 60 yards while the Panthers defense allowed 5 with 4 being 80 yards! The Bears have the more veteran group, quarterback, receivers and running backs. The Bears offense, which exploited the Packers, will exploit the Panthers who can’t stop anything right now. Take the Bears to win getting +2.5 points in the Over. Bears 26-20.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans +1. O/U: 44:
The Browns are coming off of a bye week and even though they may have a 1-2 record, Brian Hoyer is pretty happy with the way the team has performed this season. The Browns have lost their 2 games by a FG or less and against divisional rivals. The passing game for the Browns is a surprising bright spot. Terrance West has had a pretty good start to his rookie campaign. He has gone over 200 yards and has 2 TD’s. Ben Tate is questionable for Sunday but if he returns, put your money on the Browns using the running game more and developing a workable game plan for future games so that they don’t rely solely on Hoyer’s arm. The Titans lost terribly on the road in Indy. Only posting 261 total yards will not make them successful going forward. Charlie Whitehurst got the start for the injured Jake Locker and his inexperience showed by only completing 52% of his passes. Jake Locker is hoping to be back on the field Sunday, and do the Titans need him to find his groove. The Titans scored 26 points in a win against the Chiefs in week 1. In the 3 games since, they’ve only scored 34, averaging just 11 points a game. The only thing going for the Titans is their pass defense which is 9th in the league. If they can hone in on stopping the run with their 22nd ranked rush defense, they may have a shot to be in this game. In this case, take the Browns at -1 points to win and in the Over. The thing that stands out is this game opened at Browns getting +2.5 points, that in itself tells you the Browns have the upper hand here. Jake Locker starts this game and both teams will be in a shoot out. Browns 24-21.

St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Eagles -4.5. O/U: 48:
The Rams are coming off of a bye week, and hopefully the momentum that they could take away from their last game at home against Dallas shows up for them in this one. Against Dallas, they opened off quick and big, with a 21-10 lead at the half. However, they let that lead slip through their hands at home eventually losing 34-31. Austin Davies get his 3rd straight start throwing for 327 yards on 30/42 passes and 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The Rams also drove the ball very well against a surprisingly strong Dallas defense, 5 drives over 60 yards, not just all in the 1st half where they dominated but all throughout the game. All but one of those drives resulted in points, the other one was a turnover on downs. The running game is one the Eagles wished they had even though it’s only 22nd in the league. The Eagles main struggle on offense is the running the football, especially Le’Sean McCoy. McCoy averaged 76.5 yards on the ground in the first 2 games, the last 2 however, only averaging 19.5 yards. He has 12 fewer carries in the last few games and averaging 3.75 yards per carry in the first 2 while only mustering 1.45 per carry the last 2 weeks. He hasn’t even been involved in the passing game the last 2 weeks, since Sproles’ outburst in Indy in week 2. McCoy will look to bounce back against a bad run defense and the Eagles will put together their first solid game against a struggling Rams bit don’t be surprised if Austin Davis has a big game. Take the Eagles to win with the points in the over. Eagles 28-21.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Giants -3.5. O/U: 50.5:
This matchup is scary on numerous levels. First, the Giants had a resurgence on offense and tore up against the Redskins last week and Second, the Falcons were their usual, terrible self on the road last week. Granted, it was Teddy Bridgewater’s first start and there isn’t much game film on him in the pros to pick through his tendencies and their offense put up some decent yards, but the turnover bug on the road showed up again. The Falcons had 4 of 11 drives go over 60 yards and all ended with TD’s but the defense just couldn’t stop Teddy and his offense who had 6 of 11 drives go over 50 yards and converted 5 of them for points (4 TD’s, 1 FG, 1 Missed FG). That’s way too many yards for a team that thinks they’re elite, to give up. The Falcons allowed 558 yards, 317 through the air, and 241 on the ground. On the other side of the field, Eli Manning kept the ball out of defenders arms in into his own receivers’. He threw 28/39 (72% completion) for 300 yards and 4 TD’s. The Giants were the worst team as far as turnovers go, in 2013 and it seemed to be much of the same this year. The first 2 games resulted in 4 INT’s but in the last 2 weeks, he has turned things around with 6 TD’s and just 1 INT. Their rushing game has also started to pick it up with Rashad Jennings having 341 yards on 81 carries averaging 4.2 yards per carry. However, look for the Falcons to shake off their road woes and get some success in New York who is 22nd in the league vs. the passing game. Take the Falcons to win, getting +3.5 points and scoring in the Over. Falcons 28-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Steelers –6. O/U: 47.5:
Blake Bortles got his first NFL start last week against a tough Chargers team. He faired well, 29/37 (78%) for 254 yards and 1 TD/2 INT’s. Consistent passing was the key to the throwing success as Henne completed less than 55% of his passes. Bortles might’ve been a breath of fresh air for a minute but they still can’t run, still turn the ball over and still are only averaging 14 points a game. They haven’t had a breakout game yet and I don’t see one happening anytime soon. The Steelers have had too many close games this year and could actually have been 3-1 or 1-3 as 2 of their games (a win and loss) have been by 3 points. The offense has gotten off to a surprisingly hot start, ranking 8th in the pass and 5th in the run. Big Ben is averaging 273 yards a game and is on pace for a 4,400 yard year which would be a career high as well as keeping the turnovers to a minimum. The run game behind him has been the best he has since his days with “Fast” Willie Parker. The run game is averaging 5.75 yards per carry with Blount and Bell, over 5 yards per carry! That is just insane! All that and against the leagues 30th best run defense. Antonio Brown is hot and stays hot. Predictions out there are telling bettors to stay away from taking the Steelers since the game is in Jacksonville and they lost last week to a miserable Bucs team; I’m saying take the Steelers to win with the -6 points in the Under. This thing will be another TD or more loss for the Jags. Steelers 28-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -10. O/U: 48:
Finally the Saints are back in familiar territory, the Superdome. The start to this season has been very disappointing for the Saints. They lost 2 close ones in the first 2 weeks, beat Minnesota (barely) in week 3 and played absolutely terrible football against the Cowboys last week. Rob Ryan’s defense has issues and they don’t look like they will be fixed for a while after losing Jarius Byrd last week to a torn lateral meniscus. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (28th) and bottom half in the league with their run defense (21st). As bad as the Saints defense is however, they are going up against the leagues worst passing offense and 24th best run game. Brees and his 3rd best pass offense will have a field day against the 29th pass defense of the Buccs. The only thing the Buccs have going for them is their new starter, Mike Glennon. Glennon got his first start of the season last week with McCown out with a thumb issue and tossed for 302 on 21/42 completed passes (50%) with 2 TD’s and 1 INT. Expect a big game through the air in this one as neither team can seem to pick a pass off. The only interception that was attained was by the Buccs. That’s right, a combined 1 interception in 4 games for both teams. So with the Saints being at home, as electric as they are in the Superdome, take them to win and to cover the -10 points in the Over. Saints 35-24.

Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Line: Cowboys -6.5 O/U: 47:
Lots of uncertainty early amongst bettors on this one and I can’t see why. In my eyes, Dallas is a lock! Now both teams are 3-1 against the spread this year but the ‘Boys have had a bit tougher of a schedule and the offensive line is starting to move defenses wherever they want! A combined 190 yards on the ground on just 35 carries for this offense against the Saints last week left them feeling good about an average carry going 5.4 yards. Romo has had time to sit in the pocket and toss fireballs down the field (averaging 9 yards per attempt last week) will compiling 3 TD’s. Murray on the other hand, is the new beast mode. He has racked up a 100 yards or more in each game this year and averages 5.4 yards per carry on the season so far. Not to mention, he has a rushing TD in each of the games this year with 5 total. Houston on the other hand was fired up, especially the quiet Fitzpatrick who wanted to stick it to his old team, the Bills. He played better and actually had his 2nd straight game over 250 yards. Houston is a mediocre team but Dallas is an all around good trenches team. If they can control the line of scrimmage like they have been lately, they blow by the Texans. Take the ‘Boys to win with the -6.5 points but in the Under. Cowboys 28-10.

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions -5.5. O/U: 43:
Here is another game that the public bettors still aren’t sure about. The majority has shown favoritism for the Lions but not by much. The Lions are a pretty spectacular team at home. The Lions typically don’t play too well on the road but have had better success than the likes of the Falcons and Saints. Tell that to the Jets, who lost to the Lions 24-17 in New York. The offense exploded for 272 through the air but did fair on the ground with just their 88 yards. The Lions rushing game hasn’t been strong (26th in the league) but have been able to adjust with the passing game (7th in the league). Their defense has been awesome this year and their issue the last few years was the pass defense. This year they rank better in the defensive pass game than their defensive run (2nd and 6th in the league). The Bills have been inconsistent on offense under EJ Manuel, who was only 21/44 passes (48% completion) so they are sitting him and tapped Kyle Orton and he takes over the 31st ranked passing game with a star in the wings in Sammy Watkins. In all of the struggles by Manuel, he did manage to not turn it over a great deal, just 3 times in 4 games but it was the inconsistency completing passes that lead to his demise. Their running game has been picking up the slack on offense but it hasn’t been easy for them. Just 13th in the league in rushing, they’ll look to have more of a balance against the Lions. In the end, it’s Orton’s first start since 12/29/13 when he was a Cowboy facing the Eagles and throwing for 358, 2 TD’s but 2 INT’s as well. Look for the Lions to win this one and to cover the points -5.5 in the Over since the Bills defense against the pass is 25th in the league. The line dropped from -7 to -5.5, that’s a steal! Lions 31-20.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS LINE: Colts –3. O/U: 49:
These 2 offenses can be explosive, mostly in the passing game. The Ravens defense may look like they don’t allow much since they only average 15 points per game allowed. That’s because they started off with a bunch of divisional games that are usually lower scoring games. The Colts have a better passing game while the Ravens have shown big flashes when using Steve Smith Sr. Both defenses are mediocre and the Colts are at home so I would take the Colts even at -3 to win with those points and to score in the Over since neither pass defense will show up. Colts 31-24.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Broncos -7.5. O/U: 47:
The Cardinals are off to a fantastic start, and all with a backup quarterback leading them the last few games. Carson Palmer will be out again after learning the a nerve in his throwing shoulder actually went dead and will need some time to rejuvenate. Luckily, they say it’s not career threatening. The Broncos are at home and with Wes being back, look for him to have a breakout game with him making his first home debut this season (his 2nd since returning from his 4 game suspension). The Broncos may not be the best offensive team but 10th isn’t too shabby. With Wes back, look for Peyton to have a big day. The Cards on the other hand may not be the best team numbers wise but with one of the best run defenses (4th), they may be able to contain Bell and force Peyton to a bunch of passes and possibly more errors. Ultimately the Broncos will win this one with the points and in the Over. Broncos 34-21.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: 49ers -4.5 O/U: 44:
Colin Kaepernick and the passing game are off to a slow start, especially considering the weapons and offensive line he has. They are 22nd in the league in passing however, the run game is doing most of the work at 7th best. Last week the run game racked up 218 yards on 42 total carries. Kaep had another game throwing barely cracking the 200 yard mark but the 4th straight this season under 250 yards. He’s taken 10 sacks this year because he seems to be holding the ball a bit longer than usual. Gore was off to a slow start but picked it up last week against the Eagles with his frost 100 yard game. The Chiefs have gotten back on track from their 0-2 start and won their last 2. With Jamaal Charles out earlier this season, Knile Davis picked up the slack and has had a pretty good start with 321 yards on 71 carries for 3 scores. Alex Smith has struggled to climb over the 250 yard mark himself, only eclipsing the mark in 1 game (255). Since game 1 however, he’s been fairly accurate, he was 1 TD/3INT in week one but has thrown 6 TD’s and 0 INT’s. He’s going up against a really tough defense especially towards the run game. It will be interesting to see how both Charles and Davis do against them up front. But who knows, Alex Smith may want some revenge from the team that drafted him and kept shuffling the type of offenses they ran with every coach that came in and left. Playing an old team usually fires a guy up. I’d say take the 49ers at home to win but the Chiefs for the points and scoring in the Over. 49ers 27-24.

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -6.5. O/U: 44:
this is not a good place for Geno Smith to be. He will likely be playing for his job this game since he is off to an average start but has had poor throws in each of his games this year. He may have an ok game going up against the 12th best pass defense but you never know with him, he’s been so inconsistent in his career game to game. It’s a good thing the Chargers don’t have a running game (31st best in the league) going up against the best in the league against the rush. The Jets defense has been really strong and kept the team in allow their games this year but the turnovers on offense have ruined field position and the scoreboard throughout the season. The Chargers too have a good ground defense (9th in the league) but Rex will probably want to play it safe to stay off the hot seat a run a bunch minimizing the mistakes Geno can make. Phillip Rivers has had a hot hand early, which is unusual since the team usually starts the season out slow. The Chargers have the 5th best passing game and are off to a 3-1 start. Rivers is over 1100 yards and has 9 TD’s but that is mostly due to picking up the slack from all of his injured running backs. Donald Brown is not getting it done with a 2 yard per carry average. Look for Rivers to be slinging it all over the field at home and the Jets to start off rushing a bunch but having to turn to the pass once they get down by 2 scores. Take the Chargers to win but the Jets for the points, +6.5, since their defense will keep it close and score in the Over. I think the line is too big and the O/ U is too small. Chargers 27-24.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -2.5. O/U: 45.5:
Terrific Tom hasn’t been so terrific this year. Like Kaep he has yet to have a 250 yard game. All of this years we used to see him have, in Chad Johnson’s words, video game like numbers. Without receivers and without a good offensive line, we see him under a whole different pressure that he never had before and he’s hurting because of it. Yes they are still 2-2, yes their record at home with To, at the helm is immaculate, but this is the new Pats. Because of their bad O-line, they have one of the leagues worst offenses, 30th in pass and 23rd in rushing. Adding Talib has been a huge help and it shows with the best pass defense but against the run, their 23rd. This should be an easy win for the Bengals, even in New England because the weather shouldn’t be too different from Cincy. It will also be a test for the Bengals just above mediocre offense. Daulton in week 1 was stellar, 300 yards/77 yard completion long/1 TD. Since he’s declined in yardage each of the 2 games (252 in week 2, 169 week3). Both games he was 15/23 which is low for the amount of passes he should have but don’t let those numbers deceive you. He still averaged 10.96 yards per attempt in week 2 and 7.35 in week 3. So they are still trying to keep the deep ball present I their game to get the defenses to lighten up in the box but the run game still hasn’t exploded yet, 15th in the league. That will change going up against the Pats defense. They will test that secondary, pound the run and then throw overtop again. Not many times you will see the Pats give points but don’t take them. They will lose this one and it might not be a pretty sight. Take the Bengals and the points to win in the Under. Bengals 24-17.

Enjoy the week, happy betting and look for my Monday predictions tomorrow.

Week 5: Thursday Night Divisional Matchup

Well they say all good things must come to an end. My fantastic 2 week run at handicapping was amazing and I enjoyed sharing that with you but it crashed and burned starting with last Thursday’s Redskins terrible loss. I did however, tell you that the bad streak was over and another good streak will start with Monday Nights game and I didn’t lie. It was known going into the game that the Pats offensive line was going to have trouble and that was an understatement. Brady was held for the 3rd straight game to less than 250 yards and was hit a lot! I hope you’re still believing in me because I still hold an astounding 61% winners against the spread. The over/under predictions, not so much. Now, on to the Week 5 Thursday game…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Packers -8. O/U: 48:
Last week Aaron Rodgers told Packer fans to R-E-L-A-X and he delivered a great outcome for them. The Packers offense was on point, wasting only 1 drive (Missed FG) in all of their 7 drives total. That is amazing in itself. 3 drives were over 60 yards which is average but they also capitalized on their turnovers. They had 2 interceptions against Cutler and returned them at least 40 yards into Bears territory and walked away with 2 TD’s. However, the defense showed that they still have major holes to cover up. The defense let up 33 first downs and almost 500 yards! The rushing game alone allowed 235 yards. If you take the 2 turnovers away and the resulting scores, this game is a TD difference. But it’s hard to deny a pass game as on point as the Packers. Rodgers was 22/28 (78%) for 302 yards and 4 TD’s. Weather may play a part in this game so look for the dismal running game to get more looks. Lacy hasn’t been great, only averaging 3 yards per carry but has only touched the ball an average of 13 times per game, which is very low for a starting RB.

As for the Vikings, early indications for tonight’s game is that Teddy Bridgewater will not play since they will need to rely on him for the rest of the year, they want his ankle to heal properly. But wow, did they pull out a stunner against the Falcons. The Vikes held the Falcons on 7 of their 11 drives to nothing. They still allowed 5 drives over 40 yards (4 being TD’s) but didn’t allow them to get back into by continuing to score on offense. They scored on 7 of their 11 drives, 4 TD’s but managed to get and stay within FG range to rack up some more points. That says more to the fact that the Falcons didn’t know how to stop Teddy. That usually is a case in sports with new/rookie players, there just isn’t enough game film on them to study tendencies and such. That and the Falcons really are like the Saints, terrible on the road. Either way, their defense hasn’t been great in recent years and could be the reason for not making long playoff runs. The Falcons defense allowed 7 of 11 drives to go over 40 yards with an average drive of 49 yards. Conclusion: Teddy Bridgewater could be the real deal! This week, with Ponder starting, they will go right back to mediocrity. They won’t give the same air threat that Teddy gives but the ground game will be all of their highlights.

The Packers vs. the run, is the worst in the league, allowing 176 yards per game, and are going up against the leagues 8th best rushing game in the Vikings. Surprising since AP isn’t the one doing the damage. Matt Asiata has been very effective on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. Don’t sleep on the tandem though, Jerick McKinnon has carried some of AP’s load as well, almost as many yards as Asiata with almost half the carries, averaging almost twice the yards per carry however, that’s all from last game. I’m just saying be aware of the run game. The line has moved from the Packers being favored at -9, to -7.5 to now being -8. Don’t let the line fool you. Christian Ponder is the last guy the Vikings would want under center. He really hasn’t played well since coming into the league and AP took away a lot of negative attention from him because AP was so great.

I think the Packers win big at home against the Vikes. Take the Packers to win with the points -8 in the Over, because I think the Packs defense will give up tons of yardage on the ground but Rodgers seems to have found his groove with both Cobb and has never really been off with Nelson and will rack up some serious air yards if the weather stays fair. Packers 38-20.

Monday Night Football Mashup: Preview and Prediction

They say runs like what I have had don’t last, well, the run I was on crashed and burned starting Thursday and ended yesterday. That’s because the second run starts tonight. I took some chances on some out of the box picks and got burned. The Falcons and Saints are who I thought they were (pun sort of intended) but it’s true and I should’ve stuck with picking against them due to how bad they can be on the road. Could’ve been 7-5 but I underestimated Bridgewater and how well the offensive line for the ‘Boys have improved and grew together. Lets get to the Monday Night game…

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 44.5:
The Patriots are off to a good start while playing their worst, probably ever, under Brady’s watch. He is being hit left and right due to the awful offensive line. The run game has also struggled at times having these line issues. The Pats have taken advantage of the turnovers their defense have created while the Chiefs are the worst in the league with turnover differential and that has shown to hurt them in their games and stall any momentum the offense gains. Brady and the passing game has yet to climb above 250 yards and that will continue with Tamba Hali chasing Brady around the pocket. Even without Charles, the Chiefs running game still dropped big yardage on the ground. Charles is still a questionable return coming into Monday but expect the Chiefs to turn their ship around at home. It’ll be close but with the Chiefs getting +3.5 at home, that’s your best bet. Take the Chiefs to win with the points but not knowing if Charles is going to be in the game, it might stay in the Under. Chiefs 24-20.

The Chiefs should get on track with a win and so to will my handicapping. Good luck everyone.