Week 3: Thursday Night Divisional Mash up

Matt Ryan will tear up the Buccs!

Jeremy Kohl's avatarNecessary Roughness

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Falcons -6.5. O/U: 44.5

Atlanta, as I predicted, came out flat last week. Chalk one up for the Saints syndrome. Matt Ryan had gone from showing up big time in week one to disappearing behind his 3 picks last week. The Falcons had a hard time getting anything going in the first half with their longest drive being 40 yards and only getting a field goal from it. In the second half they went 3 and out, pick on first play of second drive in the 2nd half, 10 plays/59 yards/pick, 10 plays/77 yards/TD, 5 plays/6 yards/punt, 10 plays/22 yards/pick. The Buccs have kept their 2 losses to less than a TD difference. The problem is they lost by 6 to a Cam Newtonless Panthers and a Rams team without a true starting QB and their…

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Week 3: Thursday Night Divisional Mash up

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Falcons -6.5. O/U: 44.5

Atlanta, as I predicted, came out flat last week. Chalk one up for the Saints syndrome. Matt Ryan had gone from showing up big time in week one to disappearing behind his 3 picks last week. The Falcons had a hard time getting anything going in the first half with their longest drive being 40 yards and only getting a field goal from it. In the second half they went 3 and out, pick on first play of second drive in the 2nd half, 10 plays/59 yards/pick, 10 plays/77 yards/TD, 5 plays/6 yards/punt, 10 plays/22 yards/pick. The Buccs have kept their 2 losses to less than a TD difference. The problem is they lost by 6 to a Cam Newtonless Panthers and a Rams team without a true starting QB and their best pass rusher, lost by 2 at home. They are facing a fully loaded and ready to redeem themselves Falcons team. Josh McCown has completed at least 62% or more of his passes but has yet to have a 200 yard passing game. His TD/INT ratio is 2/3 so far through 2 weeks. He has yet to stretch the field beyond a 30 yard pass. That creates a lot of pressure in the box but they are 11th in the league with rushing yards. The star emerging is not Doug Martin, it’s Bobby Rainey who ran for 144 yards in last weeks game. Out of their 20 drives this year, only 7 have climbed above 50 yards and ended like this: 4 TD’s (their only TD’s on the season), 2 INT’s and 1 FG. They are 27th in the league averaging 17.5 first downs per game. The leading team are the Saints with 28. Their drives go like this: 11 drives of 21 over 50 yards ending with 2 FG’s, 7 TD’s, Punt, INT. Granted the Saints are 0-2 but have only lost by a field goal or less in those games. The Buccs need to sustain their long drives, eliminate those turnovers and they’ll result in more points and need to gain more first downs per game. The usual number you would like to see is 20 out of the 60-70 plays a team runs. The key for the Buccs may be for them to stray more towards the running and keeping McCown to shorter, more efficient passes to get those needed first downs. The Falcons are back at home where Ryan is 37-10 at home. He still has Roddy White and Julio Jones in the lineup so far which means bad things for the Buccs secondary. Look for the Falcons to win this one and taking the points -6.5 in the Over, the Falcons will put up points in bunches. Falcons 28-20.

Week 2 Monday Night NFL Matchup

Making this quick,

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 54:

Foles and the Eagles offense opened up last week looking mighty shaky but put up 34 points in the second half to beat a team that a bunch of analysts thought they’d blow out. Indy did their best to mount a comeback against Wes Welkerless Broncos in Andrew Luck fashion, by trying to win another game in the fourth quarter. Overcoming the 3 first half TD’s by Julius Thomas was too much for the Colts. They’re back at home without Robert Mathis. The lack of pressure from their star DE could be what Foles needs, more time in the pocket to make better throws. Andrew Luck keeps the Colts ahead though. Take the Colts to win in the Over but pick the Eagles and the +3 points. Colts 31-30.

Week 2 Sunday Games Preview and Predictions

It’s always hard to predict how the first week turns out with who wins and loses let alone giving advice on the spreads and over/unders. I’d like to say that I faired ok in the spreads given some of the upsets and closer than should’ve been performances of some teams and faired better on the over/unders but not by much. The first week is the first full game action for everyone and for most teams, not all of the bugs are worked out. Some of my surprises included the Jags first half, Saints/Pats/Bears/Chiefs losing, the Cowboys’ turnovers and the Packers not staying with the Seahawks.

A lot of other things happened this week that will affect the week 2 games. Ray Rice is now unemployed and suspended from the league indefinitely, Adrian Peterson was indicted on child abuse charges and is deactivated for this week, the drug policy has changed which would mean the likes of Wes Welker would be activated for this week but might not play given his lack of practice this week, and Josh Gordon may have his year long suspension reduced to 8 games. There was a lot of sloppy play over the first week as we saw the usually poised players crumble. You can only imagine that this past week of practice sured up some of the holes in last play.  So I was 7-9 against the spread, I was 9-7 for my Over/Under calls, that counts for something right?  I’m only taking 3 dogs this week and I feel pretty good about them.  Here are the picks:

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: -1 O/U: 42.5:
Both teams surprisingly came out strong last week pulling off upset wins, Bills over the Bears and the Dolphins over the Pats. EJ looked good completing over 70% of his passes and even had a rushing TD while his running backs ran for over 170 yards against a usually stout Bears defense. He did it twice last year during his rookie season and they both resulted in wins as well. The only time he was able to follow up at 70% completion percentage he threw for under 50%. EJ is still young and hasn’t been able to hit a stride while overcoming injuries in his rookie year. This may be his turn around if he can stay healthy. The Dolphins last week ran the ball well, racking up 191 yards on the ground and averaging 5 yards per carry. Not so well throwing the ball as Tannehill is still trying to prove that he is the Fins’ franchise QB. EJ will take advantage of how well he throws the ball short and intermediately which will keep the Dolphins on their toes then hit them with the run game. Take the Bills at home -1 in the over as both teams have a good run game which will open up the pass for both teams. Bills 24-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Redskins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Redskins -6.5. O/U: 43.5:
The Jags came out like they were shot out of a cannon last week in the first half with a 17-0 lead. They caused turnovers and Chad Henne put the ball into the hands of a rookie wide receiver named Allen Hurns (3 receptions in the 1st quarter for 101 yards). The turning point was the opening drive in the second half when faced with a 4th and 1, the Eagles snapped the ball before the Jags defense was set and went 49 yards for the score and didn’t look back. The Jags now have a great first half to work off of and fix that horrendous second half. The Redskins have deeper issues. They only had 2 completions over 20 yards even though RGIII had a completion percentage over 70%, he couldn’t get the ball in the end zone and fumbled twice losing one of them. The Redksins had 46 yards on 4 drives in the first quarter all resulting in punts and had their 2 longest drives (78 & 79 yards, back to back drives in the 3rd quarter) end as a result of a lost fumble. The Redskins allowed 3 long drives of 68, 83. and 89 yards with a quarterback that isn’t known for driving the ball down the field. Fitzpatrick had just over 200 yards for the game and the Texans only had 115 yards on the ground. Expect the Jags to keep it close even if they lose since Henne looked really good to open off the game and to have Toby Gerhart get more carries. I’m always one for giving a guy the benefit of the doubt when the system around him constantly changes (like Alex Smith), so don’t be surprised if Henne has a breakout year (you heard it here first). The Jags won’t wait until their 9th game this year for their first win so take them +6.5 in the Over. Jags 24-21.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Titans –3.5. O/U: 49.5:
The Cowboys surprised us in a good way but mostly in a bad way last week. With tons of injuries to their defense, we expected the defense to struggle but they didn’t and held the 49ers to just 28 points. The offense however fluttered and Romo disintegrated in the first half with 3 interceptions which 2 converted into touchdowns for the 49er also returning an opening drive fumble by DeMarco Murray for a score. 21-3 after the first, 7-14 the rest of the game. Take away the turnovers and Romo’s terrible field vision on those 3 drives, that game was winnable. The Cowboys will have a difficult time duplicating their performance given the effort needed to hold an offense like the 49ers. Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt is like a quarterback whisperer. He has taken Big Ben and Kurt Warner to the Super Bowl, winning with Big Ben and revived Phillip Rivers’s career last year, bringing him a successful winning season. Look for the Whis to make some magic with Jake Locker who had a pretty good game last week. Take the Titans to win but the Cowboys for the points if it stays at 3 or higher in the Over. Titans 28-27.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Giants -2.5. O/U: 43:
Who knows where to start with the Giants. Eli Completed under 55% of his passes and only averaged 4.9 yards per pass, and oh yeah, the run game wasn’t there either. The Giants as well only carried the ball on average 2 yards per carry and Eli only threw for 163 yards and 2 picks to 1 TD. Out of 10 drives, the Giants scored on 2 (drives of 79 and 80 yards). The other 8 drives sucked up just 61 yards of offense only averaging 7.6 yards per drive outside of the 2 they scored on. That’s not just bad, that is a significant offensive meltdown. That’s not the outcome anyone would expect having all summer and preseason to get ready to go for the season. The Cardinals looked good against a tough, gritty Chargers however came out of the game with a banged up Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer, but both are expected to play Sunday. All but 1 Cardinals receiver had less than 30 yards receiving which only meant that Palmer who had over 300 yards, had a really good day with one receiver and spread the ball around to others. Michael Floyd had 5 catches for 119 yards while 10 other guys caught the other 19 passes for 185 yards. Larry Fitzgerald had 4 targets and only 1 catch for 22 yards. Expect him to have a bigger roll against the Giants. Take the Cardinals getting +2.5 points to win in the Over. Cards 27-20.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -6. O/U: 48:
For the first time since Christmas Eve 2000, the New England Patriots are in sole possession of last place in the AFC East. It is rare for Tom Brady to have back to back weeks and this is the Bills we are talking about here. Gronk didn’t get a whole lot of game time but expect that to change this week. Tom is only 8-6 when throwing the ball more than 50 times in a game during the regular season. He is now also only 1-3 when he throws more than 50 times and completes less than 60% of his passes. He only averaged 4.4 yards per pass but also was sacked 4 times (all in the second half) as well and that is most likely due to trading away their starting center Logan Mankins. The Vikings however will be without Adrian Peterson this week as I mentioned above due to being indicted for child abuse. The Vikings don’t have Toby Gerhart to lean on in AP’s absence so the running game will struggle. The Patriots don’t often lose 2 games in a row so look for the Patriots to bounce back. The line for the game opened at +3 for the Vikings and have only changed to +6 with the AP news. I’m surprised it didn’t move more given what AP can do with the rock. With this in mind, you have to take the Patriots with the points to win in the Under. Pats 27-14.

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -6 O/U: 47.5:
The Saints are typically average on the road which proved to be the point for the defense as the Falcons slammed the Saints D for 568 yards. Drew Brees looked in mid season form with his 333 yard performance almost getting to 70% completion percent but only found the end zone once. The run game for the Saints averaged 4 yards per carry which is above par from last year (3.8 per carry for the whole season). The Browns surprisingly kept up with the Steelers last year losing by a last second field goal. Credit the Browns running game for keeping them in the game with the Steelers (30 carries for 183 yards, 6 yds avg. per carry). Hoyer was good enough (completing 61% of his passes for 230 yards, 1 TD) but the inexperience with having to share time with Manziel in the pre season has set the air game a bit back. Expect the Saints to continue their air offense dominance with Brees and new weapon, rookie Brandon Cooks (7 catches for 77 yards and 1 TD). Take the Saints -6 in the Over. Saints 34-14.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bengals –5. O/U: 48.5:
The Bengals have covered the spread in all homes games last year and in the last handful of seasons, teams that played the Saints the week before only have won 38% of their next weeks games. When you play the Saints, there area lot of things you have to cover to stop them defensively and they are one of the quickest paced teams causing more fatigue than normal. Andy Daulton and AJ Green looked like they hadn’t stopped playing pitch and catch since the 2013 season ended. Daulton had a 301 yard game but with just 1 TD to AJ who caught 6 passes for 131 yards. They had to make up for a lackluster run game which only racked up 79 yards against the Ravens in Baltimore. The Falcons brought it against the Saints and Matt Ryan blew up for 448 yards and 3 scores in the season opener at home. He didn’t look affected by the absence of Tony Gonzalez. Follow the stats in this one. Bengals undefeated at home last year while covering in all of those games and the week after playing the Saints, NFL teams usually lose. Take the Bengals to win -5 in the Over. Bengals 30-24.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -2.5. O/U: 43.5:
Cam is back in action this week and we got a taste of what this new receiving core can do last week. Fill in Derek Anderson completed 71% of his throws for 230 yards and a pair of scores, doing his best to fill in for Cam being out rehabbing his ribs. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin showed flashes of what he can provide Cam this year with his 6 catches for 92 yards and a TD. DeAngelo Williams showed flashes of a younger self carrying the ball 14 times for 72 yards but is questionable Sunday with a thigh injury. Stafford to Megatron was the show and accounted for 2 early TD’s on back to back drives. Rushing the ball for the Lions, on the other hand, was not as plentiful as the air game with just 76 yards on 30 carries! Just 2 yards on average per run! Reggie was kept quiet on the ground but made some noise through the air. Expect much of the same from the Lions but be weary, the Lions are known for their inconsistency from week to week. Hopefully that changes with their new coach. Still, I would take the Lions getting +2.5 points on the road and to win in the Over largely because of Stafford’s 2nd weapon Golden Tate who had 6 catches for 93 yards (44 yards his longest catch). Lions 31-27.

St. Louis Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -2.5 O/U: 38:
Both teams walked out of week 1 with key injuries and some will miss this Sunday’s matchup. Rams DE Chris Long will be out until mid November with ankle surgery, QB Shaun Hill quad strain. The Buccs DE Gholston has a shoulder issue, DE Bowers has an abdominal tear, DE Johnson will be out with an ankle injury, DE Clayborn was placed on the I-R with a torn Bicep, DB Melvin out with an ankle injury, CB Mike Jenkins was placed on the I-R tearing his pectoral muscle, TE Seferian-Jenkins is out with an ankle injury and G/C Logan Mankins with a left knee issue as well as RB Doug Martin. Did you get all of that? Neither teams offense had much success in the first week and struggled to get anything going on the ground. Doug Martin had 9 carries for 9 yards before leaving the game injured. He hasn’t been the same since his rookie year. The Buccs need veteran McCown to help lead the younger offense through this season to get into a rhythm like he had with the Bears last year. That might start this game since the Rams are struggling to find their identity on offense (and struggling to find a reliable starting QB) let alone losing a huge leader for their D. It will be sloppy, it will be boring. Take the Buccs at home with the points -2.5 and in the Under. Buccs 24-13.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers,
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Seahawks –6 O/U: 44.5:
Long rest versus short rest. The Seahawks played a week and a half ago in the 2014 NFL opener at home against the Packers while the Chargers were in Arizona on Monday night. The Seahawks dominated the Packers from the get-go and won handidly against a great Aaron Rodgers but head to San Diego who faced no push over on Monday night, the Arizona Cardinals. The Chargers had a hard time getting the ball moving on the ground with just 52 totals team rushing yards and the game was a bit of a snoozer in the first half but losing by 1 on the road will have Rivers fired up for Sunday. He’s already mentioned to the media that he will not be scared to throw it Richard Sherman’s way, unlike Rodgers who didn’t test the corner all game long in the 2014 NFL season opener. The Seahawks are unreal/dominating at home and good enough on the road. Most of their road wins are close games even against mediocre teams, this may be the same case given how well the Chargers improved last year. The points have changed drastically since the opening of the line at +3.5. However, now it’s up to +6 for the Bolts which makes this a juicy action game. I like the Seahawks still wining this game however take the Chargers +6 at home in the Over. Seahawks 24-21.

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Texans -2.5. O/U: 39.5:
Houston is coming out of a week where they lost their #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney at least until mid October to microscopic knee surgery and who saw their average starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, played, well, average. Arian Foster sort of got back to his old form, rushing 27 times for 103 yards for only 3.8 yards per carry. Oakland decided to go against starting the former Texans starting star QB Matt Schaub and instead went with the highly touted rookie Derek Carr. Carr didn’t disappoint, completing 63% of his passes for only 151 yards but for 2 TD’s and 0 picks. Their rushing game however, probably the worst in the league at this point, rushing for only 25 yards on 15 carries, with 3 different backs and Carr with a run for -1 yard. Word is Maurice Jones-Drew is out for Sunday so it’s Darren McFadden’s show if he can stay healthy. He performed the best, 4 rushes for 15 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry. With Carr showing what he can do and if the running game doesn’t get going again, look for the Raiders to give him a ton of work. I don’t see Fitzpatrick being the Texans solution at QB since Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins need a QB that has the arm strength to drive the ball down the field, which Fitz can’t do. Look for the Texans to have a heavy dose of rushing in their offensive gameplay with the Raiders giving up over 200 yards on the ground to 4 different rushers. That will give them control of most of the game’s time of possession. Expect a low scoring game but the Texans to hold on to get a win. Take the Texans with the points -2.5 in the Over. Texans 24-20.

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Packers -8 O/U: 46:
The Packer fans were optimistic coming into the season opener against the Super Bowl Champs. They left disappointed. The Packers were embarrassed, much like the Broncos were back in February, which also had snap issues like Peyton did early in the SB. The Packers only scored 8 more points than the high octane offense of Denver. Eddie Lacy was diagnosed with a concussion and is probable for Sunday but expected to play. The Packers T Bulaga suffered a torn MCL last week, and yes is still questionable for Sunday. The Packers struggled to get going on the ground rushing only for 80 yards which didn’t bode well for Rodgers who only passed for 189 yards with a TD and a INT but completing 70% of his throws however only averaging 5.7 per attempt. Geno Smith did exceptionally well for the Jets last week, completing 82% of his passes for 221 yards with a TD and INT but also set the rushing game up for a big day, over 200 yards on the ground! The Jets were only able to score 2 offensive TD’s due to a pair of turnovers on consecutive drives and 5 stalled drives resulting in a punt. They did have 3 long drives (81-Fumble, 80-TD, 71-TD). Geno is still learning but it’s 2nd year time now, there shouldn’t be much of a curve in his game so look for him to be more consistent especially now with new weapon, Eric Decker. Jordy Nelson saw 14 targets and came up with some huge catches out of his 9 receptions for 83 yards. The corners are not as good on the Jets so look for Rodgers to pick them apart with having both Cobbs and Nelson healthy. Don’t look too much into the Jets only allowing Oakland to have 25 rushing yards. Oakland has an aging MJD and an up and down back in DMC. Take the Packers to win with the points -8 in the Over. Packers 31-20.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -10.5 O/U: 52
Peyton wasn’t kidding when he said Wes Welker will be hard to replace. He relied heavily on his TE Julius Thomas, who had 3 TD’s all in the 2nd quarter, much to his fantasy owners delight. Even though Peyton didn’t have his typical 300/400/500 yards passing, he got the Broncos up big and early, leading 24-7 at the half. Their defense only allowed 54 yards (3.8 average yards per carry) on the ground but Indy had to turn to the air early and often to catch back up to the Broncos. The Chiefs were stunned last week by a very determined Titans group under their new coach Ken Whisenhunt. The usually stellar defense of the Chiefs we slashed for 162 yards on the ground while Jake Locker tallied 266 yards through the air. KC’s offense just down right fizzled. Alex Smith looked like he did from his first 6-7 years in the league, terrible completion percentage and TD/INT ratio (1/3). Don’t get me started on the running game. An abysmal 67 yards with Alex Smith leading the way with 36 of those. Jamaal Charles had 19 yards, and he didn’t leave early due to injury….maybe due to damage to his pride or ego which made him check out mentally. Clearly the only option they looked at in the air game was Donny Avery who had 7 catches for 84 yards. Dwayne Bowe is expected to be back in the lineup after serving his suspension last week, so look for the Chiefs to rebound with one more weapon on the field.  But still, we are talking about the Broncos here, so take them to win with the points -10.5 in the Over.  Broncos 34-21.

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers,

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: 49ers -7. O/U: 48.5:

Last but not least on the docket for Sunday night, the Bears go on the road to avenge their home opener loss to the underdog Bills.  This will be a tough one for them however, due to Brandon Marshall having ankle issues and Alshon Jeffrey having hamstring issues even sitting out of practice on Thursday.  Both Cutler and Kaepernick completed 69% of their passes! Cutler with more yards but also 2 picks to Kaep’s 0.  Matt Forte proved to be as solid as ever having 17 carries for 82 yards and 8 catches for 87 yards.  Tons of questions followed the 49ers defense, wondering if they could stop Tony Romo and the high flying Cowboys offense, boy did they ever.  They caused Tony to throw 3 picks in the first half.  The Cowboys also fumbled 3 times recovering only 1 but scoring on the first caused fumble early in the first quarter.  In the last few years they prove that they could win without Aldon Smith, well, they did it again and will continue to do so here against the Cowboys.  At this point the 49ers are the obvious pick.  They were more consistent last week but Kaep has to target more than 4 receivers to win.  The Bears can keep it close if Marshall and Jeffrey are healthy.  Take the Bears with the points +7 but the 49ers to win in the Over.  49ers 30-24.

Look for my Monday night preview between the Eagles and Colts, tomorrow.

Week 2: Thursday Night Division Mash Up

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Ravens -2.5. O/U: 44:

Enough of the Ray Rice story. I don’t need to re-hash details with all of the other major media doing that so this is strictly about the game at hand. The Ravens normally hand out about 150 media passes for games, today they handed out 500! So it will be talked about all broadcast long.

Last week the Steelers were tested by a virtually weaponless Browns team but held on to win. They will need more grit from their players against the Ravens. 9 out of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 3 points or less. Le’Veon Bell has had his share of off the field issues but was in action last week and scored a TD while rushing for 109 yards also while catching 6 passes for 88 yards. Big Ben looked decent with 365 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Ravens, aside from not having Ray Rice in the backfield, had issues with his replacement, Bernard Pierce, who fumbled on a key play and was benched for it. 3rd back Justin Forsett picked up the slack carrying the ball 11 times for 70 yards and a TD. Only having 3 running backs on the roster, John Harbaugh hasn’t tipped his hat as to who will start however we can only assume it will be Bernard Pierce as well as a healthy mix of Forsett. Sorry fantasy guys, unless one of those guys breaks out, the Ravens won’t have a start running back this year to yank decent points off of. With that being said, it’s in Baltimore, and the home teams have only a 5-5 record in the last 10 (the Ravens only having 2 of those wins at home. But Flacco and Steve Smith looked very good in their first game together so don’t let the home game numbers scare you. Teams, even under conditions similar to these, rally well and on short weeks, the home team has the advantage on the rest factor especially since the Steelers were on the road Sunday against the Browns. Take the Ravens in the Under with the points in this one as it will be another tight one, Ravens 23-20.

Monday Night Football Predictions

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions,
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Lions -4.5. O/U: 47:
Eli Eli Eli. Last year as abysmal to watch Eli behind center as far as his TD/INT ratio goes. To have such a drastic swing in that ratio from 2012 to 2013 was extremely surprising for a 2-time Super Bowl champion not to mention the offense in general, being 28th in the league in scoring. This year is hopefully going to be different bringing in Ben McAdoo from Green Bay to liven up the offense by installing his West Coast play scheme. The Lions had a fiery coach and played fiery, even taking bad penalties. Jim Schwartz wanted them to play tough but let it get out of hand and couldn’t control the team as it spiraled out of control losing 6 of their last 7 games. This year under Jim Caldwell, they got Stafford a secondary weapon in Golden Tate. The future looks bright for both teams and Manning is a pro who’s been around and who has carried himself very well in the shadow of his father and big brother Peyton, he should bounce back. Eli will have to wait after this week however since the Lions will take them handily. Take the Lions and Megatron to win with the points -4.5 in the Under, 31-14.

San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Cardinals -3. O/U: 45:
These teams don’t meet often but when they do, it’s all Chargers. The Chargers have won 7 of the 9 meetings between the two. Phillip Rivers has had some slow starts to the season and lead the Chargers to their first playoff appearance since 2009, even picking up a wild card win. It has also been since 2009 that the Cardinals had made the playoffs however they failed to do so even after a turn around year with their first winning record since 2009. That may have something to do with having a stable, willing and able QB like Carson Palmer. In his first year with the team, he made the most of his weapons, throwing for his 4th 4,000 yard season (second in a row). Ken Whisenhunt was fired after a disappointing 5-11 showing in 2012 in which they were predicted to go to the playoffs with a stout defense. With Bruce Arians first year, a successful season, under their belts, the sky is the limit. Andre Ellington showed a flash of what he can do and now with his rookie year past him, he can only explode in this offense from here. Look for this one to be close but for the Cardinals to win but pick the Chargers for the points +3 in the Under, Cards 27-24.

Rest of Week 1 Picks and Analysis

The NFL season has started off with a huge win for the defending Super Bowl champs. A huge 36-16 win over the strong Packers proves that the 12th man still have it and that Seattle is a legit contender to repeat. By the way, Aaron Rodgers didn’t throw Richard Sherman’s way all night and still lost big. What that that say about the other side of their defense? It’s just as strong. So if you picked Seattle’s defense, get ready for them to just consistently stop great offenses and put up big fantasy points! 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 Safety and 16 Points allowed. If they didn’t fumble the punt return in the 1st quarter, they might’ve only given up just 9 points.

Moving forward, there are 13 games on Sunday sheet. Lots of good matchups with some division games right off the bat. Lets take a look.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -3. O/U: 51.5:
The Saints take on division rivals Falcons in Atlanta to kickoff their season. Saints have won 8 of the last 10 meetings and only 3 have been won by more than a touchdown. Look for a close game even with the Falcons not having Tony Gonzalez as their tight end for the first time since 2009. The Falcons had an abysmal 4-12 season but don’t let that fool you for this game. Matt Ryan will bounce back having his offensive line upgraded with Jake Matthews and building a better report with Julio Jones and Roddy White. However this game may be close the Saints will take the cake and by more than a field goal. It’s much of the same from the Saints since 2009, with the exception of 20012 when Sean Payton had a 1 year ban for Bountygate, they haven’t finished worse than 11-5. In fact, ever other year since 2009 it’s been 13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5 under Sean Payton. Take the Saints 31-24 in the Over. Go with what works, the Saints always work!

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bears –7. O/U: 47.5:
Here are two teams that have had trouble making the postseason in recent seasons. Not surprising for the Bills but surprising for the Bears who have the talent to get it done, if Jay Cutler can stay healthy. The Bills had given the reigns to EJ Manuel looked like a rookie most of the season but also showed signs of what could be in the future. Rookie Sammy Watkins is slotted to suite up for the Bills despite having rib injuries the last few years which should see some action coming from Manuel. The Bears however have been 5-0 against the Bills at home all-time even though they have only played each other twice since 2006. The speed of the Bill’s offense will keep them in it but expect the Bears to have their way with the Bills defense with the Cutler/Marshall/Jefferey and Forte on the ground. Take the Bills in the Over but the Bears to win 27-24.

Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Texans -3. O/U: 45:
Houston is still looking for a quarterback (because Fitzpatrick is not the answer) and they even traded for the Patriots backup Mallett. They released their leading passer from last year Case Keenum who fared better than Matt Schaub in the TD/INT ratio) and now have no returning quarterbacks from last years’ roster. Washington has had the same core of guys the last few seasons and even snatched up Desean Jackson from the Eagles after being released by the origination for potential gang relations. Fitzpatrick is an accurate passer who can win some games but the Texans have big and quick receivers that need the ball pushed down the field with strength from time to time and Fitzpatrick is not that guy. Expect Gruden to manage RGIII much better than Shanahan and expect him to return to his rookie form minus the reckless running. I don’t see the Texans putting up big points on offense with Fitzpatrick and don’t see the Redskins blowing up on O either given the Watt/Clowney defensive domination. Take the Redskins +3 and the win in the Under, 20-17

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -1.5. O/U: 43:
Another inter-division rivalry game to kick things off, these two have split the last 10 games with both teams being 4-1 at home against each other. That being said, Andy Daulton got a fat extension this offseason, as did Flacco did the pre-season before. Daulton did break Bengals season passer records last year and is the first Bengals QB to lead the team to three straight post-seasons, he has been consistent during the regular season. Gary Kubiak, the ousted Texans coach, is now the Offensive Coordinator for the Ravens trying to reinvent Flacco and put some life into the offense. The Ravens re-upped their defense with some rookies after being average at best last year. Games between these two have been 60% in the Under. Both teams have decent defenses so expect this one to be a snoozer on offense especially since Ray Rice is gone for the first two games of the season. Take the Bengals +1.5 in the Under and the win 21-20.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -5. O/U: 47:
11 of the last 13 AFC East titles have gone to the Pats so go with what works. Gronk is back but is probably limited because it will be hot (predicted to be 88 at game time) and he hasn’t had much game action since having his ACL repaired. That didn’t stop Tom from having a good year last year and having Gronk Sunday will only make him look that much better. The Dolphins still have hopes for Tannehill to be their franchise QB but his time is running out and having a completely different offensive line from a year ago will only make it harder. He took a league worst 58 sacks last year, look for that number to be one of the worst again this year. The Dolphins now seem to have a decent running game since their Wildcat days with the addition of Knowshon Moreno, who shredded the Pats for 224 yards last year with the Broncos. The Dolphins have only won 2 of the last 10 games against the Pats, both at home. Take the Patriots -5 and the win in the Over 38-24.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs –3.5. O/U: 43:
Alex Smith comes into the Chiefs opener with a nice new contract and the Titans open their season with a new coach, Ken Whisenhunt. The chiefs come into this game with the AFC leading rusher in 2013, Jamaal Charles and a QB who was once considered in 2010 as one of the biggest #1 overall draft pick busts, Alex Smith (who since the 2011 season is 30-9-1 as a starter), and one of the best defenses in the league. We already know the Titans hired a new coach but they also didn’t resign the speedy Chris Johnson, instead opting to draft Bishop Sankey. With a decent wide out in Kendall Wright and having a great offensive minded coach, the expectations are higher than ever for Jake Locker. Will he be the next Blaine Gabbert? Take the experienced group over the group with a whole new look, Chiefs -3.5 in the Over, 28-20.

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: St. Louis -4. O/U: 43.5:
As we all know by now, Sam Bradford will miss the season opener, and the rest of the season afterwards. The Rams said that they are sticking with their back up Shaun Hill even after picking up the Texans replacement starter from last year, Case Keenum. Now that failed experiment Christian Ponder is out of the picture, Matt Cassel is actually flourishing with Teddy Bridgewater putting some heat on for the number 1 spot. Even though Minnesota went undefeated in the preseason, that will not continue in the regular season. They do have all 5 starting lineman returning this year which will provide a consistent offense. AP will be as big as every other year despite history showing backs his age wilt starting at 29. Both teams will play good defense so take the Vikings +4 in the over to win 21-13. It would be a miracle if the Rams score an offensive TD.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Steelers -6.5. O/U: 41.5:
I’m sure everyone is tired of hearing about Johnny Manziel, me too unless he is on the field. As for the game, Big Ben is 17-1 against the Browns since being drafted. The Browns didn’t have. Consistent run game last year, expect much of the same this year as well as the pass game. Josh Gordon is out for the year so the only real targets are Andrew Hawkins and Jordan Cameron especially since Brian Hoyer didn’t have a full preseason with the 1st team offense thanks to fending off Johnny Football. Pittsburgh has their top two backs out due to a marijuana issue they had a few weeks ago so look for this game to be low scoring. Expect the defenses to play well against mediocre offenses. Take Big Ben’s record against the Browns to win with the -6.5 points and the Under, 20-13.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets -5.5. O/U: 40:
As it seems with every year now, the Raiders went through major overhauling on the offensive side. Drafting Derrick Carr was a must since Matt McGloin was the only consistent part of the offense last year. Yes he played well for an undrafted rookie and won Rookie of the week in week 11, but he is no means a franchise QB. Carr beat out newly signed QB Matt Schaub and will have new face Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield as well. With some improvements on defense through the draft, they have a fighting chance for at least a winning or 8-8 season. The Jets will have Geno back as starter and newly signed Chris Johnson who is trying to restart his career. Mark Sanchez is finally out of town and hopefully so is the curse from the butt fumble. Take the Jets to win this with the points -5.5 in the Over 24–17. David Carr looked really good this preseason but he’ll have to wait for his first win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles,
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Eagles -10.5. O/U: 52.5:
There is no doubt that Eagles fans and ownership expect great things this year from Chip Kelly and his guys. The Eagles set team records in points and offensive yardage as well as an unprecedented 27-2 TD/ INT ration from Nick Foles and Shady leading the league with a career high in rushing yards and yards from the lime of scrimmage. But the challenge for them is their receiving core which lost DeSean Jackson due to an ethics decision by the front office dealing with his off the field issues, and Jeremy Maclin’s health. The Jaguars have questions at the receiver position with Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely, Ace Sanders suspended for four games and Cecil Shorts III and Allen Robinson both battling hamstring injuries. Chad Henne was told he gets the reigns for the season and was named one of the teams captains this past week. He has shown in the past that he can win and perform if given the same coaching staff more than one year in a row, he just has to shake off his inner Brett Favre trying to gun passes in where they shouldn’t be, and he’ll be fine. That and with an improved defense and newly inked Toby Gerhart, they should see an improvement from the horrible 0-8 start from last year and continue to build off of the 4-4 ending they had. The Jags had a hard time in the first 8 games causing turnovers but quickly turned that around in the second half of the season and the younger secondary started to look like they were hitting their groove. Don’t let the line fool you, the Jags will keep it close, take the Eagles to win but the Jags for the +10.5 points in the Under. This is a game I would even put on upset alert! Eagles 28-21.

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: 49ers -4.5. O/U: 51.5:
The 49ers are chasing that ever elusive Lombardi Trophy and open their season up against a team that is trying to not have another 8-8 year. Sean Lee is back on the shelf for the start of the season. The Boys also lost Demarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher in free agency. Romo has had the most backing and trust from his owner/gm in the history of the NFL, could this finally be the year? Colin Kaepernick’s offense didn’t light the world on fire and is hoping that changes when the games mean something. The 9ers start their season losing Aldon Smith 9 games for multiple off the field issues but faired well in his absence last year. Kaepernick also enters the season with a nice new fat contract after having the whole season to himself behind center, he had your average QB stats. Expect Gore to have his 8th straight 1,000 yard season. Take the 49ers in this one to win with the points in the Over 31-24.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -2. O/U: 39.5:
The Panthers enter their season opener wondering if Cam is 100% given his rib situation. Not only does Cam have to worry about his ribs but also who will be his go to receivers this year since his top 4 from last year are all gone. He seems to be favoring big draft pick Kelvin Benjamin but he has had a history of drops and bad route running in college. The Buccs are coming off of a tear down and rebuild year, brining in Lovie Smith (freshly fired from the Bears) for the fired Greg Schiano and sort of upgrading their starting QB with Josh McCown from the Bears as well. McCown will also have a top rookie wide out to be throwing to in Mike Evans. With Vincent Jackson, Evans and Doug Martin, Buccs fans are hoping for at least a winning season with all of the new parts on offense. Expect this division rivalry to stay close, with the Buccs giving 2 you have to take the Panthers for the win and the points +2 in the Under, 20-17.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos,
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Broncos -7.5. O/U: 55:
Don’t expect Peyton Manning to be distracted by the guy who replaced him in Indy. This offense is still running on octane even without Wes Welker and his surprising 4 game suspension. The Broncos have had 13-3 seasons the two years Peyton has been there so don’t expect that to change. Andrew Luck has lived up to his #1 overall pick status by leading the Colts to back to back 11-5 seasons while overcoming his head coach Chuck Pagano battling cancer missing most of 2012 and missing his star #1 wide out Reggie Wayne for much of the 2013 season. It didn’t bother Luck much, turning former FIU receiver T.Y. Hilton into a house hold name with his 82 catches for over 1,000 yards. Each of his NFL years, Luck has had 4 fourth quarter comebacks including a Wild Card win last year against one of the hottest teams in the league, KC Chiefs. Denver’s defense has been reinforced with the signing of Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and TJ Ward. Look for the Broncos to be just a bit better this year and to kick off the season right against the Colts. Take the Broncos to win and the points -7.5 in the Over, 35-27. Quick stat, Denver is 10-5-1 against the spread last year but 11-5 scoring in the over but started the season with 8 straight games scoring in the over. The Broncos usually start the season faster than anyone else in their offense, look for much of the same this year.unnamed

Look for these two games tomorrow for your Monday Night Football Preview:

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions,
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Lions -5.5. O/U: 47:

San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals,
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Lions -5.5. O/U: 47:

Opening Night in the NFL: Packers @ Seahawks

The NFL season is finally upon us and boy does it kickoff with a great matchup. Green Bay visits Seattle In a rematch of the “fail marry” game with the replacement referees. This matchup is different though. Seattle is more seasoned, and have a Super Bowl win under their belts. Not to mention just more experience for their younger players. Green Bay has upped their veteran presence on defense by adding Julius Peppers and drafting a great rookie Ha Ha Clinton Dix in their secondary.

Look for this one to be close just like the season opener two years ago. The Parry referee crew tonight has called more defensive penalties, almost double, than any other officiating crew this pre season.

Last I checked, Covers.com had the spread at -6 for Seattle and the over under at 46.5. This game will end in a field goal or less separating the teams. Seattle has only lost two games at home the past two years but could’ve been three if the refs got the call right last time these two teams played.

My prediction tonight gives the Packers the win, 24-21. Even if you don’t think the Packers can win, take them for the points, they won’t let the Hawks blow them out like the Broncos. Also you need to take the under since Seattle’s defense is already very good and Green Bay’s has gotten better.

Tune in later this week for my weekend predictions.

Robinson to Emmert, “Come Take My Wins!”

Long before Michael Robinson had won a Super Bowl as a fullback, he was once the starting quarterback for the 2005 Big 10 conference champion, Penn State Nittany Lions. During his senior year he threw the 5th best season by a PSU QB at that time (now 8th). His only full year as the starter at PSU, he lead the Nittany Lions to an 11-1 record, 3rd ranking in the AP Polls, a share of the Big 10 title with Ohio State, an Orange Bowl victory against Florida State and finished 5th in the Heisman Trophy voting. He helped Penn State and JoePa accumulate 27 wins in his four years and their first bowl win and double digit win season since 1999.

Insert the Jerry Sandusky scandal with the consequences in 2011 handed down by NCAA President, Mark Emmert. Penn State had numerous sanctions placed against it as well as bowl bans, probation, scholarship reductions for the football program and a hefty fine, not to mention 10 or so corrective actions the University had to implement.

Former players from all eras weighed in on the sanctions and the end of JoePa’s tenure, being fired during the investigation. Nine former players including the JoePa estate and several Penn State trustees last year, filled a lawsuit against the sanctions delivered by the NCAA calling them a rush to conclusion in the Freeh report. The report states that the NCAA, Emmert and then chair of the NCAA’s executive committee Edward Ray “acted in clear and direct violation of the organization’s own rules based on a flawed report by former FBI director Louis Freeh”. Freeh led the university’s internal investigation into the scandal, arriving at scathing findings that pointed blame in part on Paterno and three former school officials. The suit hopes to reverse the sanctions levied due to Sandusky’s actions.

At the John Travers Memorial Golf Tournament on May 9 at Blue Ridge Country Club, Robinson auctioned off a specially signed picture of himself as the beloved PSU QB. The picture was auctioned for $325 which was inscribed with a distinct message for the NCAA President, “Dear Mr. Emmert, Come take my wins! – Michael Robinson 12”

There is no doubt that what Sandusky had done is completely disgusting, monstrous and absolutely not what any of the victims parents/families thought their child was being subjected to. This was supposed to be a man who was out to help their child through their rough patches, guide them to success and groom them to be good citizens. His sentence is what it is and has been worked through the justice system. The day the sanctions were enforced on the university caused much debate as to whether the NCAA follows their own rules in handing down punishments on universities in the wake of scandals.

Through the years of coverage on the scandal and the countless interviews of former players, fans and college sports analysts, the monetary sanctions levied on the university seem just, since it will go to help the youth affected by such horrendous acts. The other sanctions however seem unjust as it punishes other innocent people, specifically the student athletes that took part and are prideful of the 112 wins taken from the program. It also punished the potential future student athletes that were turned away from a chance at a scholarship from the football team due to the reduction of available scholarships the program could use. The reason as explained by Mark Emmert was that no one man or program is above the university and must be punished.

Mike Robinson’s signed photo statement to Emmert seems to be a mini jab at the NCAA President however there is deeper meaning that all former PSU players have voiced on the sanctions. It was tough enough for the current players at the time to have to play to the end of the season under the media microscope of the investigation. Why further punish the current student athletes in the football program, potential future student athletes of the football program and the former student athletes from those 1998-2011 football programs? What was taken from the victims can never be replaced, but for whatever reasons that Mark Emmert had come to a conclusion back in late 2011-early 2012, common sense was not used and the situation in Happy Valley worsened.

The 27 wins meant the building of character to Mike Robinson. It meant the four years of tutelage under JoePa and the many lessons on growing up and being responsible, even lessons on how to treat a lady. There is no question from the alumni players, how much JoePa meant and still means to them and how much he would always have their best interests in mind. Maybe this is the time for them to be here for him since he had passed shortly after leaving the program. The alumni players have stood firm for what kind of man JoePa was and what he stood for. They’ve all tried to make sure that for the good JoePa had done in his lifetime at PSU, people still remember him for it. For Mike Robison, his part is standing up for those 27 wins.

Where doesn’t Allen Robinson fit in?

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My first blog writing gig for a website has come with morethanafan.net and their cfbroundtable.com site.  I accepted a position covering Penn State Nittany Lions football.  So, being a long time Michigan fan, I will always love Michigan, but now I have to draw my attention to PSU.

I’ve never disliked PSU and always rooted for them since they pluck a bunch of local kids from around where I grew up, to play for them.  So I never looked at them as “rivals”.  Plus, who didn’t like JoPa through his 30 plus years of coaching?  He taught a lot of kids through the program some very important values that they have taken to heart over the years and applied to their lives and even though he had a lapse in sense on what to do with the Jerry Sandusky situation, he is still revered by former players, coaches, alumni, and the university for the non-football contributions he made.

Having pulled up the current roster, 2014 schedule, and the departing players to the draft, I came away with an overall good feeling about the upcoming season.  Towards the end of the summer is when I will start to analyze the team more in depth along with their schedule.  Right now PSU students are going home for the summer and some senior football players including junior Allen Robinson, are hoping they hear their name called in the remaining 6 rounds of the draft tonight and tomorrow.

One of the best scouted prospects coming out of PSU this year is 6’2″ wide receiver Allen Robinson.  He is in a very packed wide receiver draft class where he was pegged by “mock draft experts” to go somewhere late in the first round or in the second round.  To say the least, there were a lot of surprising picks in the first round and a bunch of teams who need receivers passed on them and went for another need.  Teams in need of a wide receiver as a top 3 need are as followed: Rams, Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, Lions, Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks.  Plenty of teams to land on for Robinson who is considered by some “mock draft experts” the 7th best remaining receiver.  Robinson’s pro day improved on his combine numbers and with his size and his 4.49 speed, he would be an asset to any of the teams listed above.  Not to mention that he could be the complimenting receiver to another big named receiver currently on  a team or be your number one guy given his stature.

Upcoming second round picks from the list of teams above that need a wide receiver: 3rd Pick – Browns, 4th Pick – Raiders, 7th – Jaguars, 8th Pick – Seahawks, 12th Pick – Rams, 13th Pick – Lions, 14th Pick – Steelers, 17th – Jets, 22nd Pick – Eagles, 24th Pick – 49ers, 29th Pick – 49ers, 31st Pick – Broncos, 32nd Pick – Seahawks.

14 chances that a wide receiver could be taken, 14 chances that it could be Allen Robinson depending on how the teams have graded him on their board.  Size, Speed and great leaping ability (39″ vertical) will compliment any receiving core and he will be a red zone threat since he doesn’t mind the contact aspect of football (as seen when he ran his own lineman over to grab a few more yards against Syracuse last year.)  I could see him being taken early on to mid 2nd round but I would be shocked if he fell to the 20th+ picks of the second round.  It really all depends on how teams graded him and where they have him in the ranks of all of the other wide receivers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4PYLzD0Zj0

News came in that an assistant coach saw the 1st round draft board of the Vikings and they had Johnny Manziel and Teddy Brdgewater 1 and 2 on their draft board.  Most of America didn’t have Bridgewater going in the first round after his pro day but it goes to show you that teams grade guys differently and that nothing is to be expected.  Personally, Carr would’ve been the pick there since he hasn’t missed where Bridgewater has in the throwing game and has more of a cannon.  So take in the next two rounds tonight, teams will look to pick up a great amount of solid left over players.