Month: September 2018

2018 NFL Kickoff: Thursday Night Football

As I sit here and watch the end of the last episode of Hard Knocks with the Browns, I have to start by mentioning how disappointing it was to not see Cajuste get a spot and how shocked I was that they let Nassib go.  I thought for sure Nassib was a lock and with Cajuste having a pretty decent offensive game in the last pre-season game, thought they might keep him but I know they already had 3 solid tight ends so the harsh reality was just seeing him cut.  Anyways, without further ado…..

Welcome to the start of the 2018 NFL season and the start of my predictions machine (hint: I am the machine haha!).

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 8:20p, NBC (Eagles: -1, O/U: 44.5):

The Falcons will play a little roll reversal coming into this game as underdogs compared to being favorites going into Philly for the NFC Divisional game last season.  The previous seasons Super Bowl champs are 12-2 in the last 14 season openers.  The average point totals in those games racked up to a whopping nearly 48 points.

The Eagles have many questions coming into this game as Foles had a bad pre-season and they are dealing with a handful of injuries to key players.  Doug Pederson will keep Foles reigned in and focused while calling plays that will be successful and suit his skill set, like he did in the playoffs.

The Falcons roster hasn’t changed much other than adding another offensive weapon via the draft, Calvin Ridley.  The only worrisome note was the drop in offensive scoring output from 33.8 points in 2016 under Shanahan to 22.1 points in 2017 under Sarkisian.  Given that it was the teams first year under Sark, they should see improvement in their consistency, from game to game, in year 2 under his watch.

The game moved 3 points after the official news that Wentz was out and Foles was in as starter for the Eagles.  To be honest, that’s scary but it also gives me what I need to know about the Eagles.  Like I said, Doug keeps Foles in line for this week and keeps the game close but take the Falcons and their high powered offense to cover +1 and win in the over, Falcons 24-21.

There you have it, game one in the predictions column.  Happy football eve everyone!  Don’t forget to thaw the dip, get the family sized bag of Tostito’s and get your order in early to your favorite wing joint…… oh, and good luck!

#beatyourbookie

 

New Season, Same Predictions 56% Winners!

2017 SEASON

2017 was an exciting season that crowned a first time ever Lombardi Trophy winner, the self proclaimed underdogs, Philadelphia Eagles.  While I’m a Packers fan in Pennsylvania, it’s cool to finally see them win a Super Bowl and to see how happy lots of my friends were, living in PA, it was a remarkable game to watch as an outsider with no horse in the race.  Plus, it’s always good to see that Brady and Belichick are human after all (even though I’m a Michigan fan).  I will say one thing though, I’m tired of hearing the Eagles chant and am looking forward to the 2018 kickoff.

ABOUT MY PICKS LAST SEASON

Last year was going to be a great tester season, to see if I had the chops to pick winners enough times to be able to make money doing it every week.  I use Colin Cowherd for my insider to betting tips, since he has handicapped games for sport and has been pretty successful with his Blazing 5 over the years (which is why I keep track of it in my blogs along with my picks).  Colin says every year, that in order to live in Vegas as a professional sports handicapper, your winning percentage doesn’t need to be crazy high like 80%.  If you can get to an average of about 56%, you’re a pro.  Colin has hit higher with his Blazing 5 in the past and numerous seasons.

So 56% winners was my goal last year.  Yes, I didn’t get the last game or two of week 16 and all of week 17, life happens, but I was able to get to 55-56% based on the data I collected and blogged about up until those games.  Even so, 56% through 238 regular season games.  I was stoked, to say the least.  So what’s next?

RAISING THE STAKES IN 2018

I’m puting the theory to work and betting every game.  In theory, if I modestly place a $25 bet on every game, I would have bet $6,400 over the course of 256 regular season games.  At 56% winners, my 2017 percentage, I would rake in a cool $3,584 while paying $371.20 in fees (winning about 143, losing on about 113 games, which would’ve cost me about $283 in juice through a bookie).  No offense to bookies, but if I don’t have to deal with jacked up lines on “action heavy” games, then I’ll spend the extra $90 through other means.  If all is going well a few weeks in, I may change the size of the bet, higher.

So stay tuned.  We’ll have a tough opening game with the Eagles and Falcons, being that Wentz is still out and Foles looked terrible in preseason action.  Look out on Wednesday night, or Thursday morning for the 2018 opening predictions blog.