NFL Week 6: Monday Night Football Pick & Prediction

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 8:15 PM, ESPN (Packers -3.5, O/U: 46.5)

The Lions are coming off an early bye week in time to head to Green Bay with 2 weeks to prepare for the new look Packers offense. The Lions have been slow out of the gate as they’ve had some tough matchups early on and faired pretty well, especially in the Chiefs game. Even so, they’re middle of the road in most team statistical categories. The Lions defense however has stepped up to the plate this year ranking 10th in points allowed and in the top half of the league in turnovers caused and stingy in the redzone only allowing 8 TD’s in 16 trips (50%). Stafford has protected the ball well early and has looked fairly sharp (62.4% completions, 1,122 yards, 9TD’s and only 2 picks. Stafford’s line has done well protecting him as well, better than in years past as he’s only been sacked 7 times and has been able to conduct 2 4th quarter comebacks with 1 game winning drive in his 4 games. They need to get Kerryon Johnson going however as he’s only rushed for 264 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry and only 1 rushing TD.

The Packers are coming off another emotional win in Dallas as they move back home for a divisional rival game against an always tough Lions team who have had the better of the Pack in recent years. The Packers have quietly kept in the top half of the league on offense and only recently picked up the rushing game with the explosive performance given by Aaron Jones last week that culminated in 4 TD’s. The one aspect that the Packers have been killing teams is their redzone conversions. They rank 6th with 13 TD’s on 19 trips (68.4%). Rodgers is shockingly outside of the top 10 in passing due to a slow start and having an actual rushing game to utilize more. He’s protective as always with the ball with a 6TD to 1 pick ratio. Aaron Jones may only be averaging 60 yards a game but he’s making the most of his carries averaging 4 yards per carry and more than a 4th of them gaining key first downs but the shocking stat is his league leading 8 TD’s. Davante Adams is supposedly out a few weeks with a turf toe injury so that means more opportunities coming to the rest of the receiver depth like Valdes-Scantling, Allison, Graham, Lewis. The defense bounced back after a disappointing loss to the Eagles who took Green Bay’s rush defense to the woodshed in front of their own fans. It hasn’t negated the fact that they are still a top 10 defense. They are tied for 3rd in the league with 11 turnovers (7 off picks), and top 10 in sacks with 15.

Packers home field advantage is unlike 99% of the league where Vegas gives them a 4 point advantage instead of the traditional 3. Take the Packers to cover in the over, Packers 27-23.

NFL Week 6: Sunday Morning London Game Pick & Prediction

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, 9:30 AM (Buccs +1, O/U: 47.5)

Kyle Allen has been keeping the Panthers season alive in the absence of Cam. He’s completed 67% of his passes and has been very careful with the ball, throwing 5 TD’s and 0 picks. The team has put a lot of work on Christian McCaffrey as well as he leads the league in yards from scrimmage (866) while leading the league in rushing yards (587) and tied for second in rushing TD’s (6). The defense is the 4th best against the pass, allowing just 985 yards. The Buccs have been keeping things interesting in the NFC South with wins against the Panthers and Rams. Jameis has been up and down but has looked better than seasons past under Arians (61.4 % completions, 1,371 yards and 11 TD’s with 5 picks). The big difference in this offense is that their efficient in passing downfield, averaging 13.4 yards per completion. The line needs more work as they’ve allowed 18 sacks (tied for 4th in the league). The emergence of Ronald Jones has been much needed for the run game. The team is middle of the league in rushing but Ronnie has shown flashes of what he can do when the line blocks well as he’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Their defense has been suspect however as they’ve allowed the 5th most points and yards in the league (148 and 1,967 yards) but caused 10 turnovers which ironically is also the 5th best in the league.

Take the Panthers to cover in the over, Panthers 27-24.