NFL Week 4: Sunday Games

Buffalo at Green Bay, 1:00 PM, CBS (Packers -9.5, O/U: 44)

Last week Josh Allen was determined to show that he has what it takes to play now and the kid put on his big boy jock on and took the Vikings defense to the woodshed.  Hurdling defenders, strip sacking, the Bills were on fire early and caught the Vikes off guard and the Vikes were left in shock for the remainder of the game.  The Big surprise not only was the offense but the defense stopped the Vikes offense hthat has a ton of weapons and a big time quarterback.

The Packers are coming off a tough loss to the Redskins in DC last week and having a strong first two weeks.  Rodgers was still effective on the rain soaked field but having Aaron Jones back was a great sight since the Packers struggled mightily in the running game for the first few weeks.

It’s tough to win on the road, especially in the house of one of the best teams in the NFL.  Asking a rookie to do it in back to back weeks is also a tough ask, but mind you, Shady McCoy is expected to play.  Take the Packers to cover in the win and in the over, Packers 30-17.

Cincinnati at Atlanta, 1:00 PM, CBS (Falcons -3.5, O/U: 53)

The Bengals got knocked off the undefeated list last week in Carolina.  It still ended up being fairly close despite the 4 turnovers (4 INT’s by Dalton) they committed which lead to 17 Panthers points.  They didn’t seem to miss Mixon all that much as Bernard stepped up nicely and contributed a rushing score.

The Falcons have had a hard time on defense holding offenses to under 450 yards.  Despite that, the offense is firing on all cylinders including new weapon, rookie Calvin Ridley.  As the Bengals are without their star running back, the Falcons’ Freeman is doubtful for this game as well but Coleman is capable.

Take the Bengals to cover in the loss and in the over, Falcons 31-28.

Detroit at Dallas, 1:00 PM, FOX (Cowboys -3, O/U: 44)

The Lions and Patricia, who looked absolutely abysmal in week one with their hat on backwards, have flipped the hat around to the front and have progressively gotten better each of the last two weeks.  Last week was a huge test as Patricia went up against mentor Belicheck.  They have been more and more effective on offense as they started to find their stride with a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield between Johnson and Blount.

The Cowboys offense has looked like it hit a brick wall and have been riding Elliott on each of his runs.  Dak has no big time receivers, no one who can make a play on the perimeter and being that he’s a B quarterback at best, he doesn’t do well when he has to try and make something happen with his arm if his receivers aren’t getting open or dropping balls.  The defense has been the strongest part of the team but that doesn’t help much when your offense can’t score.

Strange to see the Cowboys as three point favorites given that their offense can’t score.  Take the Lions to cover and win in the under, Lions 24-17.

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM, CBS (Colts -1, O/U: 47.5)

Watson has yet to flash any resemblance of his handful of games from last year.  The defense has been good but not productive enough with 3 takeaways but none in the last two games.  They’re stuck at 0-3 even with all of those weapons for Watson to throw to.

The Colts have yet to find any consistency in their ground game and after seeing Luck pulled for the hail marry, there’s cause for concern.  Luck has been strong however, despite not having much zip on the deeper throws.  He’s been able to orchestrate decent drives, and has 5-3 TD-INT ratio.  By the way, the Colts’ defense has been sneaky good!

The line opened up at -3 Colts and has worked itself down to -1.  I can only imagine that it’s due to people still holding on hope for Watson to return to his play from last year.  Not happening.  Take the Colts to win in the cover, also in the under, Colts 24-20.

Miami at New England, 1:00 PM, CBS (Patriots -7, O/U: 49)

Miami’s defense has been pretty good and Brady doesn’t have any weapons outside of Gronk in the passing game.  Take the Fins to cover in the loss and in the under, Patriots 24-21.

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM, FOX (Jags -7.5, O/U: 39.5)

Great defenses usually tee off on rookie quarterbacks.  Darnold seems to hold on to the ball too long for fear of throwing a pick or making a bad decision with the ball.  Take the Jags to win and cover in the under, Jags 21-10.

Philadelphia at Tennessee, 1:00 PM, FOX (Titans +3.5, O/U: 41)

A beat up Mariota goes against a great defense and tough secondary.  Take the Eagles to cover in the win and in the over, Eagles 27-21.

Tampa Bay at Chicago, 1:00 PM, FOX (Bears -3, O/U: 46)

Trubisky is good during the scripted portion of the games (starts of the game and beginning of the 2^nd half).  Other than that, Mitch-a-oploza isn’t effective.  Take the Buccs to beat Mitch-a-poloza, cover and in the over.  Buccs 27-23.

Cleveland at Oakland, 4:05 PM, FOX (Raiders -3, O/U: 45)

Raiders are the best winless teams out there and have to get off the snide.  Take the Raiders in a covering win, in the under, Raiders 21-17.

Seattle at Arizona, 4:05 PM, FOX (Cardinals +3.5, O/U: 40)

Take the Seahawks to cover and win, in the under, Seahawks 20-17.

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants, 4:25 PM, CBS (Giants +3.5, O/U: 52.5)

Saints score a ton and give up a ton, also are bad on the road with no pass rush.  Take the Giants to win and cover in the over, Giants 31-27.

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers, 4:25 PM, CBS (Chargers -10.5, O/U: 46)

No Garapolo, no McKinnon, the 49ers are toast.  Take the Chargers to win and cover convincingly in the over, Chargers 35-17.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM, NBC (Steelers -3, O/U: 51)

This might as well be a pickem, doesn’t matter the stadium and fans in the stands because these games are usually pretty close.  Steelers are the most penalized team so far through week 3 and are on pace to be the most penalized team ever.  Take the very disciplined Ravens to cover in the loss but in the under, Steelers 20-19.

#beatyourbookie

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

o    Houston at Indianapolis – Indianapolis (-1)

o    Seattle at Arizona – Arizona (+3)

o    Cleveland at Oakland – Oakland (-2.5)

o    New Orleans at NY Giants – NY Giants (+3.5)

o    Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Baltimore (+3)