Week 3: Sunday Games

Buffalo at Minnesota, 1:00 PM, CBS (Vikings -17, O/U: 41)

The Bills are now being regarded to as the worst team in the league and Sunday, and they will be playing one of the leagues best defenses in their house.  From the sounds of it, McCoy will likely be out with sa cracked rib and also might be missing their young star defensive end, Shaq Lawson with a hamstring injury.  Also missing in the lineup will be Vontae Davis, who at halftime last week, retired and left the stadium well before the game was over.

The Vikings are coming off a disappointing tie with their division rivals and if it weren’t for a rookie kicker missing a few field goals, they’d be 2-0.  The spread is absolutely massive at 17 and really isn’t seen this huge at this level.  I can’t imagine Allen fairing well on the road against this defense if McCoy is out.  Take the Vikings to pressure the rookie and cover in the win and the over, Vikings 34-14.

Cincinnati at Carolina, 1:00 PM, CBS (Panthers -3, O/U: 44)

The Bengals come in as an undefeated after a tough matchup against the Ravens.  Dalton has looked very good especially with Mixon elevating his game as their starting back.  One problem coming into this week, Mixon is our for a few weeks after some minor knee surgery.  Bernard is probable but he’s not an every down back.  So with Dalton having the offense all to himself, will he continue to fee Green touchdowns (3 last week to Green), or will they struggle as Dalton will have the ball in his hands more than normal?

The Panthers are starting to settle into a nice rhythm with the Norv Turner offense.  Cam is completing nearly 70% of his passes and that’s even after losing star tight end Olsen with more foot trouble.  McCaffrey looks beastier and is running harder than he ever has.  The Panthers look like they have the pieces and offensive consistency from their 13-3 super bowl run season.  The one question, which hasn’t really been a question in the past, is their defense.  They have one of the best defenses in the league on paper but haven’t been able to stop teams from scoring, and especially having some redzone trouble.  Either way, I like the Panthers to cover in the win, in the over, Panthers 28-21.

Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 PM, CBS (Ravens -5, O/U: 45.5)

The Broncos have seen a start unlike they’ve seen since Peyton was in town.  Keenum was held out of some practices this week with a banged up knee but has looked good enough this season but 4 picks to 3 touchdowns hurts this offense if that trend continues.  The surprise has been undrafted rookie back Phillip Lindsay.  Last week he became the first undrafted running back to hit 100+ yards from the line of scrimmage in his first two games.  Being 2-0 and with confidence, they have to head east for a 1pm game that will feel like an 11am game, which could be a disadvantage, especially for a banged up Keenum.

Flacco has been very consistent knowing that Lamar Jackson is being worked into plays and wants that starting role.  Flacco has thrown for over 600 yards with a 64% completion percentage.  All while not really having many standout stud receivers.  The backfield has been a platoon mostly consisting of a 1-2 punch of Javarious Allen and Alex Collins.  While Allen has the touchdowns, Collins has been the more consistent and productive back and should see his workload increase in the coming weeks.  With both defenses solid against the run game, go with the better experienced quarterback and coach in this one, who would be the home team.  Take the Ravens to cover and win in the under, Ravens 24-17.

Green Bay at Washington, 1:00 PM, FOX (Redskins +3, O/U: 45.5)

A bum legged Rodgers still was good enough to nearly beat the Vikings at home.  Rodgers is without a stellar line nor a semblance of a running game but was still able to move the ball from the pocket.

The Redskins ended their home sellout streak and could barely fill the joint.  They also ended up losing to the Colts in a poor effort in which they lost another running back in Rob Kelly.  The Redkins did add some receiver help with veterans Perriman and Floyd.  It won’t help though, Rodgers had an extra weeks worth of rest and treatment for his knee and has to face a less powerful defense.  Yes, I’m going homer pick, take the Packers to cover in the in and in the over, Packers 34-30.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM, FOX (Eagles -7, O/U: 46.5)

The Colts are coming off a big win on the road in Washington but came out banged up and possibly without some players.  It seems we can expect Hilton to be in the lineup but that may not be the case for Marlon Mack which could severely hurt their offense.  Luck has looked strong in both of his first starts in a few years and shockingly, has had time to move the ball.

The Eagles get their man back from his big knee injury and just in time too.  The Eagles have looked mediocre in their first couple of games.  Don’t expect Wentz to single handedly blow out the Colts but expect them to put some decent points up.  The Eagles win this one but the Colts cover in the over, Eagles 24-21.

New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 PM, FOX (Falcons -3, O/U: 53.5)

The Saints haven’t looked worse to start a season.  They haven’t gotten their ground game going in the absence of Ingram.  Kamara isn’t an every down and Sean Payton loves to use him in the passing game out of the backfield, so this has been a start that is an uncomfortable one for them.

The Falcons are still trying to find themselves in the redzone.  They finally scored some redzone touchdowns in last weeks game but it was Matty Ice’s legs that got 2 of them.  I still expect the Falcons to win and cover in the over, Falcons 34-28.

N.Y. Giants at Houston, 1:00 PM, FOX (Texans -6, O/U: 42.5)

The Giants looked like a dysfunctional family the last few week.  Saquan Barkley hasn’t had a whole lot of room to run in between the tackles and Manning has been pressured during most drop backs.  Manning still has weapons if his line can keep him upright.  Granted they were up against a tough Dallas defensive front.

Desaun Watson hasn’t looked like the Watson of last year.  Completing just under 60% of his passes, but had a much better week 2.  The Houston defense is where the lag has really been.  Watt and Clowney have had little impact in the first two weeks, they will have to wake up and take advantage of an offensive line of the Giants that has been taken advantage of in their first two weeks.  The Giants look like they have a long way to go to get the line working right and coach O’Brien will get Watson back to form and the Watt/Clowney duo will eat this line up but that spread is way too big at this point.  Take the Giants to cover in the loss, in the over, Texans 27-24.

Oakland at Miami, 1:00 PM, CBS (Dolphins -3, O/U: 44.5)

The Raiders have had a hard time getting going under new coach Gruden but improved on the road in Denver last week, which is tough to play on the road early in the season.  Carr went an unreal 29/32 for 288 yards.  He’s complete 80% of his throws this year while hitting an array of different receivers but hit his favorite target, Cook a bunch early on.  The defense has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback after getting rid of Mack but improved last week on points allowed however, allowed an undrafted rookie running back to gain over 100 yards rushing.

The Dolphins have gotten off to one of their best starts in the last few decades, leading the AFC East heading into this week.  Tannehill has also kept a high completion percentage through the first two weeks, at 72.5% while Drake and Gore have been a solid 1-2 punch from the backfield.  The defense will get its first decent test of the fresh season though.  Take the Raiders to come in and get their first win covering the spread and scoring in the under, Raiders 24-20.

San Francisco at Kansas City, 1:00 PM, FOX (Chiefs -7, O/U: 55.5)

The 49ers come into this expected shootout after coming out of one against of Detroit last week.  Garapolo however, like Watson, hasn’t really replicated the magic from last year, throwing 3 touchdowns but also 3 picks while just barely completing over 50% of his passes.  After losing McKinnon, Breida was next man up and has done very well, averaging 8.3 yards per carry.  The big question is, will Goodwin play?

Mahomes has had a huge start to the year, 10 touchdowns and 0 picks with nearly 600 yards passing.  The rushing game barely has time to get going due to the big bombs their quarterback throws to the speedy Tyreek Hill who has 12 grabs for 259 yards and 3 scores.  This offense is high powered but their defense can’t keep up, allowing 28 and 37 points in back to back weeks.  Don’t be too alarmed about the defense though, it usually pretty hard to keep teams from scoring when you’re put back on the field that many times and so quickly.  Expect another shootout but I think Garapolo, without as many weapons, gets out of the gate slower, and the Chiefs take advantage, covering in the win, in the over, Chiefs 34-28.

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM, CBS (Jaguars -10, O/U: 39.5)

Tennesse had to dig deep in the playbook to pull out a win last week as they didn’t have Mariota behind center, and lead by backup Gabbert.  A gutsy fake put pass was a huge difference maker for them, getting on the board early and first in a slow moving game.  This offense is nothing special, unfortunately and even more so with Mariota questionable today.

The Jaguars Came out firing last week in a redemption game against the Patriots and beat Bill and Tom in their house as home dogs!  Bortles was on fire and the real question is, can he keep it up with his young team of receivers.  No Fournette still but Yeldon looked good enough to get it done.  Obviously the defense will be out for blood with this lackluster offense.  Take the Jaguars to cover in the win, in the under, Jaguars 24-10.

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams, 4:05 PM, CBS (Rams -7, O/U: 48)

Dating back to last season, the Chargers have played batter on the road than at home and they proved that last week, beating up the bills so badly that at the half, one of their players on defense retired.  Rivers has been absolutely money, 57/78, 680 yards, 6 touchdowns and just 1 pick.  He’s had a ton of weapons to throw to and is really making the most of his time on the field.  Their defense, although young and inexperienced, has been hanging tough and will face another tough challenge this week.

The Rams started where they left off last year but with a tremendous new deep weapon in Cooks who has 12 grabs for 246 yards but has yet to score.  Gurley with his 3 rushing touchdowns, is helping this team average 33.5 points per game this year.  This is a tough call as it’s the first battle of the LA teams but take the Rams to cover in the win, in the over, Rams 28-21.

Chicago at Arizona, 4:25 PM, FOX (Cardinals +5.5, O/U: 38.5)

Trubisky has been ok this year however, you still get the sense that he is kind of held back in their playbook.  Regardless, Mack has been a beast for their defense and you can tell he really has elevated everyone else on every play and his stats show how good he really is.

The Cardinals are still at the starting gate.  With all of the rookies starting under center or making their ways into games, when do they pull the plug on Bradford and get Rosen in there?  After all, he was touted as being the most NFL ready quarterback in the draft but finds himself the last one to see any game action out of all of the first round quarterbacks.  6 points through two weeks is highly unacceptable.  The only way the Cards have a shot in this one is if Rosen comes in early.  The Bears go hunting on the road in this one, with a blowout win in the under, Bears 27-10.

Dallas at Seattle, 4:25 PM, FOX (Seahawks -1.5, O/U: 41)

Dallas picked up the slack they left after week one, in week two.  Dak hasn’t had a strong beginning of the season but Zeke has made up for the lack of passing.  Dallas’ defense though has been stellar with Lawrence and Charlton looking nasty up front and now look very dangerous if they can get their offense going.

The Seahawks are having issues galore.  Earl Thomas was having a sit in all week with the team, the offensive line not holding for Wilson.  They need to get something together soon. The only thing helping them is being back at home for their first home game.  Dallas puts together a good push on the road, take them to cover in a tough road win in the under, Cowboys 20-17.

New England at Detroit, 8:20 PM, NBC (Lions +7, O/U: 54)

Mentor versus mentoree.  The Patriots are back on the road after being road favorites in Jacksonville last week and losing a tough rematch against them.  Expect Brady and Belichick to put together a counter gameplan to Patricia’s defensive schemes.  Brady has been good as usual, using Gronk as much as possible but their running game hasn’t found their number one guy in the backfield yet.

Stafford has been all over the place.  He’s had huge throws and big plays but has been forcing a bunch of balls in where they shouldn’t be going.  He still has 3 really good threats that can scream downfield and be big deep threats but now also have rookie Kerryon Johnson in the backfield averaging over 4.5 yards per carry on his 13 rushes.  Look for Johnson to be more of a factor, controlling tempo of the game to try and keep this one close.  Brady and the Patriots get the better of the Lions however, covering in the under, Patriots 31-21.

Good luck, happy betting on the way to #beatyourbookie.

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5:

  • Cincinnati at Carolina – Cincinnati (+3)
  • NY Giants at Houston – NY Giants (+6)
  • Indianapolis at Philadelphia – Indianapolis (+6.5)
  • Green Bay at Washington – Washington (+3)
  • Dallas at Seattle – Seattle (-1.5)

Author: Jeremy Kohl

A good, hard working dude that loves his sports.

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