Welcome back for the rest of my week 15 predictions. Sorry it’s a little late for I was making my way back from Camden, NJ yesterday in the snow storm, took a few hours to drive back. Anyways, enough with the excuses, here are my pick s and quick analysis.
Bills @ Jaguars (Jags +3, O/U 42.5) – Both teams are sitting at 4-9 however the Jags have turned it around in the last few weeks. The Jags are terrible at home and seem to can’t really score in front of their own fans, 1-5 ATS. The Jags are dealing with numerous offensive weapons out for Sunday (Shorts III, Blackmon, Forsett, Jones-Drew). Considering the fact that Shorts didn’t really have much to do with last week’s win and it was MJD’s show, and now he most likely will be out, Take the BILLS and the UNDER, Bills 21 – Jags 9.
Patriots @ Dolphins (Fins -1.5, O/U 46) – The Fins are 3-3 ATS at home and the Pats are 3-3 ATS on the road. After starting the season 0-4 ATS, the Fins are 5-1 ATS since and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games. Look for the Fins to continue that trend and cover by winning at home against the Pats. The passing game for the Fins is starting to come along. Thannehill will have Mike Wallace most likely matched up on Aqib Talib who is dealing with a hip injury and the Pats are missing their top receiver from the past 5 week, Rob Gronkowski. Brady and the Pats usually find a way to win without top players but look for the Fins to put up a fight. Take the DOLPHINS in the UNDER, Pats 20 – Fins 24.
Texans @ Colts (Colts -4, O/U 47) – Both of these teams starting the season with higher hopes than where they are at right now. The Colts have been up and down all season, not really putting together a good string of games or show consistency since losing Reggie Wayne early in the season. The Texans couldn’t shake a bad start and have ended up with an abysmal 2-11 record but in 8 of the 11 loses, they have been within a touchdown or less of their opponent. Keenum is under center for the rest of the year but after looking shaky against the Jags defense last week, I don’t see an improvement this week. Take the COLTS in the UNDER, Texans 17 – Colts 27.
Eagles @ Vikings (Vikings +6.5, O/U 53) – The Eagles come into this game on a nice win out in what seemed to be a blizzard last week. The more amazing stat from last week was not the win but the point total. Virtually abandoning the passing game in the second half, the run game led by Shady McCoy, rushed for 217 yards in that blizzard. The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week and a close one even without Peterson for much of the game. Vikings are a little banged up on the defensive side of the ball and the Eagles defense seems to get better every week. Take the EAGLES in the OVER, Eagles 42 – Vikings 17.
Redskins @ Falcons (Falcons -6, O/U 50) – Without RGIII, look for the Redskins offense to resurge under the helm of Cousins, but don’t expect them to win. While the fresh blood of Cousins will spark some points, the team is torn with all of the uncertainty their franchise QB has for their coach Shanahan. The team seems to have lost some faith in their coach and only will put up some limited sparks with a 100% healthy QB in Cousins. The Falcons have been inconsistent all season however the offense has shown flashes of what it used to be the past few years and against a down and out Redskins and being at home, look for the Falcons to play well. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER, Redskins 17 – Falcons 31.
49ers @ Buccaneers (Buccs +5, O/U 41) – The Buccs have been under-rated with Glennon as their QB and has really matured as the season has come along. Even though their playoff hopes are gone, they would love to play spoiler to a team who is on the verge of locking up a spot and make it tougher for the 49ers to secure a wild card spot. The Buccs defense hasn’t been what it used to be in the early 90’s but has promise. Kaepernick has shown to be shaky when under pressure at times this year and his play directly affects how the 49ers play. Look for a lower scoring game if the Buccs can pressure Kaepernick but look for the 49ers to squeak away with a win. Take the BUCCS and the UNDER, 49ers 20 – Buccs 17.
Bears @ Browns (Browns +1, O/U 44) – This one should be a gimme figuring the Bears giving just a point. Cutler will be back under center and will look refreshed. The Bears under McCown have played well and have kept themselves alive being 7-6 with the Lions who have the tie breaker with the Bears. The Browns have been in a tail spin on offense after losing Hoyer but played really well in New England and even came away with a win, thanks mostly to their defense. The surging Bears will be too much on offense and defense to deal with. Take the BEARS and the UNDER, Bears 27 – Browns 13.
Seahawks @ Giants (Giants +7.5, O/U 42) – This one will shock people. The Seahawks seem to struggle at times, on the road especially going from West Coast to East Coast. The Giants are tired of being called pushovers and have played better as of late going 5-2 in their last 7 games after starting the season 0-6. With Jason Pierre-Paul being out, Justin Tuck has stepped up getting 7 sacks over the past 3 games. Tuck has stated this week that they don’t want to be embarrassed by the Seahawks and so will be clawing all game long to keep the Seahawks offense grounded. The Seahawks have shown that even with some key highlights out on defense, they have the depth to make up for it. They have 28 takeaways, tied for 1st in the NFL while the Giants have the NFL’s most turnovers with 34, much of that from the 0-6 start. This game is important for the Seahawks to wrap up the NFC West so it is a must win for them for the road to the Super Bowl to come through Seattle. Take the GIANTS and the UNDER, Seahawks 20 – Giants 17.
Jets @ Panthers (Panthers -10, O/U 41) – Where do you start on this one? The Jets have played much better at home than on the road and that usually is the given for a rookie QB but on the road, it hasn’t really even been close for the Jets. The Jets are just 1-5 on the road and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Panthers have been covering machines lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 games with covering 7 of those 8 wins and missing the win against the Fins by just .5. Watch for the Panthers to pour more gasonline on the dumpster fire that is the Jets on the road. Take the PANTHERS and the UNDER, Jets 13 – Panthers 24.
Chiefs @ Raiders (Raiders +5, O/U 41) – Hello Chiefs offense. The last 3 games have been fun to watch but the Chiefs are only 1-2 in those 3 games. Their offense has kept them in the games and look for them to keep rolling on top of the Raiders this week. Alex Smith has come to life and the offense looks on point and in mid-season form, getting ready for a nice playoff run. The Raiders have been reeling since losing Terrelle Pryor and a little of that spark in the offense has gone with it. Matt McGloin has done a nice job as a fill in and not bad as an undrafted free agent rookie but he’s no super star but has put up respectable numbers (88.7 QB Rating, 957 Yards, 6 TD’s, 3 INT’s). Take the Chiefs and the OVER, Chiefs 38 – Raiders 17.
Cardinals @ Titans (Titans +2.5, O/U 43) – The cards have shown up these last few weeks and their ATS record shows it, 9-4 (4-0 in the last 4 games). However, the Cards have to travel cross country to face the Titans and road teams usually struggle to put up enough points to have a big win. The Titans defense has seen some tough offenses in the last few weeks, having to deal with the Broncos last week. The Titans offense still hasn’t really had any consistency and even in the running game, the Cards get the edge. Take the CARDS and the UNDER, Cards 20 – Titans 17.
Packers @ Cowboys (Cowboys -6.5, O/U 49.5) – The Cowboys at home are 5-1 and are 4-2 ATS. The Packers are 1-3-1 without Rodgers under center and have looked terrible in the passing game. Eddie Lacy is the reason they are not 0-5-0 in those games and once Rodgers comes back, this offense will look explosive. Until then, stay away from the Packers. Flynn had a decent game last week which they actually won but against the Falcons who have proven to be disappointing and had not lived up to their preseason hype, and the Pack barely won that game. The Cowboys and Romo are looking to shake the December story lines and how they can’t win. This is a must win for the Boys and will need a win to build momentum towards next week and the playoffs later on. Take the COWBOYS in the UNDER, Packers, 20 – Cowboys 28.
Saints @ Rams (Rams +6, O/U 47.5) – People still get excited about the Saints even when they are on the road but the numbers don’t lie. Saints are 1-5 ATS on the road. The Rams are only 3-3 ATS at home but have shown some fight against some really good teams in their dome especially the amazing week 8 win against the Seahawks. Even without Bradford, Clemmens has shined for the Rams. Expect the Rams defense to show up and keep this one as the Saints flounder on the road again. Take the RAMS in the OVER. Saints 24 – Rams 28.
Bengals @ Steelers (Steelers +1.5, O/U 43) – Bengals may be perfect at home but are only 3-4 on the road. With the last road game of the year, they are looking to take a series sweep against the Steelers. The Steelers can’t seem to put things together this year being 5-8 overall. ATS the Bengals are 8-4-1 while the Steelers are just 6-7. I would expect the Bengals defense to pressure Big Ben all game long and the Bengals offense to put up some decent yards through the air. Take the BENGALS in the OVER. Bengals 31 – Steelers 24.
Ravens @ Lions (Lions -6.5, O/U 50) – The Lions are at home this week, thawed off and ready to battle. Expect the Lions defense to dominate with their huge defensive front led by Ndamuhong Suh. Both teams enter the contest 6-7 ATS, but 7-6 overall. Ravens are 1-5 on the road while the Lions are 4-2 at home, however the Lions are 3-3 ATS at home and the Ravens are 2-4 ATS on the road. The Ravens offense won’t keep up with the Lions high powered Offense, especially with explosive Reggie Bush expected to be back in action. Take the LIONS in the OVER but barely, Ravens 23 – Lions 30.
Sorry almost all of these picks are in late, been dealing with the snow/ice storm that hit. These are my honest to God picks and as you can see, some are incorrect with the scores. I will make sure to get them in by Friday. You still have the Bengals and Lions to take, so good luck!
Look for my recap on Tuesday.